Bitcoin Daily Update (day 197)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “BTC’ looks like it has found support and should bounce to the $6,750 area before continuing the downtrend. However, alts are currently breaking down and there is a good chance that they drag BTC’ down with them.” / Short ETH:USD. Took profit on 33% of position improving my average cost basis to $317.37 per ETH.
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,150 - $6,180 | R: $6,290
BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to be pulling back and forming a lower high.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% (first time in a while it hasn’t been shorts paying longs)
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -3.87% | 26 = -5.85%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -8.96% | 128 = -11.55%
Volume: Still waiting for volume spike to set off the next move
FIB’s: 0.886 = $6,137 | 0.786 = $6,383
Candlestick analysis: Inverted hammer then a doji now a hammer is forming. Indicates indecision and upcoming volatility
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h C-Clamp
TD’ Sequential: Current candle will price flip if it closes > $6,181. Red 9 on the 4 hour.
Visible Range: Currently testing point of control (POC) with 2m - 1y lookback.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = +/- 0 | 1w = -6.52% | 2w = -10.34% | 1m = -0.63%
Bollinger Bands: After testing the bottom band a return to the MA at $6,739 is to be expected
Trendline: N/A
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up = $7,426 | Down = $5,866
On Balance Volume: Moving down with price / no div’s
ADX: Bear trend
Chaikin Money Flow: Pulling back from resistance
RSI (30 setting): W = 48.53 | D = 43.88
Stoch: Bearish re cross on weekly. Buy signal on daily.
Summary: There is nothing to do at this point other than to wait. Ideally we will get a sharp spike to $6,700 before breaking down. A shakeout before the breakdown would speed up the process and allow for some very good short entries.
If that doesn’t happen then we will likely continue to consolidate for days - weeks. Prolonged sideways action can drive traders up a wall and/or put us to sleep. Do not let that happen to you. Set price alerts and regularly check in on the charts.
If we get a bounce then be ready to short it. If we continue to consolidate then develop a plan for what you will do if we do not get a bounce. My suggestion is to key an eye on EOS . I am going to be shorting it against BTC' and ETH in the coming days/weeks.
Hammercandle
[Red Apple] "Target prices for Bullish"_BTC/USD_18.08.20Let's analysis BTC~
If you are busy, you can just read below briefly
'A. Briefing '
'E. Target prices for Bullish'
'F. Strategy'
before read, click '+Thumb up, +Follow' :-)
A. Briefing
. Hammer candle on weekly
. Bullish Harami candle on daily
. staying over 20EMA on 4H
B. Weekly Chart
a. Candle
similar with Hammer -> it can be from morning star pattern(in case, over $6700)
b. EMA
closer and closer between 20EMA and 50EMA
C. Daily Chart
a. Candle
Bullish Harami
b. EMA
20EMA can be worked as resistance
c. Sum.
Bullish harami is less reliable than engulfing and piercing candle. Previous high level and 20EMA($6630~$6650) can be worked as resistance
D. 4H Chart
a. EMA
staying over 20EMA and there's possible 20EMA to be crossed over 50EMA
b. Pattern
a)
Neck-line for Inverse H & S, triangle, Wedge is broken again
b)
new triangle pattern is formed
c. Elliott Wave
d. Fibonacci
need to go over 0.886
e. Sum.
focus on breakout of new triangle
E. Target prices for Bullish
Target prices for Bullish are as below, as per above briefing + Monthly Chart.
a. Monthly :
a) mim. $7000
b) max. $7700 (-> Three Outside Up pattern)
b. Weekly :
a) mim. $6700 (-> Morning Star)
b) max. $7000 (-> previously high level and 50EMA on weekly)
c. Daily :
$6630~$6650 (-> previously high level and 20EMA on daily)
d. 4H :
penetrate up-ward on triangle
e. Sum.
In short,
1st ) $6700
2nd) $7000
3rd) $7700
Those are targets for Bullish. (and finally $8500)
F. Strategy
Today, we need to focus on new triangle. if it is broken up-ward and penetrate previous high level, it can go more.
Therefore, i recommend that find out BUY signal above $6650.
Trade safely~
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BULLISH MOMENTUM ON ETHEREUM What do we have with this chart?
ETH is one of the assets that lost most of the market cap in recent days, more than 53 billion dollars have gone ethereum since May 2018
The last time it was so oversold, made the price of having a bounce of more than 100% in a few days
Bear Market Still not over yet
The Price will follow BTC, if BTC goes down
The "hammer" candlestick means bullish reversal of trends
STOP LOSSES ARE VERY IMPORTANT IN BEAR MARKETS
d.stockcharts.com
SPY - Bullish breakout setupAfter a strong bull run in the SPY price has been stuck in a period of tight consolidation. We are looking for bullish price action setups so we can get long with the overall trend. While price continued to consolidate today there was a bullish hammer that formed off of a key support level showing buying interest. If price can break above the hammer we could see a continuation of the bullish trend. A potential trade would be to enter at the break of the hammer and to place a stop loss just below the bottom of the hammer. This would create a very attractive risk/reward trade that also gets you in the market with the trend.
AUDJPY retrace then bullishWeekly: swing started on 22/01/2018 loosing steam. Higher low formed. Last week got rejected forming a bullish hammer off important level that acted as support tested multiple times.
Daily: last 3 days of last week were bullish, going all the way to fib cluster formed of the 50% level from last high and 23.6% from 22/01 swing. That's good momentum but needs to retrace to pick up its breath
4H: pierced through the 200 MA and currently sitting on top of it. Slight RSI divergence between 10/05 21h and 11/05 17h and the RSI is high, indicating it needs to retrace a bit if it's going to carry on.
I see it retracing to 82.2 level (fib level 38.2%) and go retest previous high (83.5/84.0, also 78.6% fib level), which would then form a potential inverted H&S to look at in the future
A Great Opportunity to Buy in DASHBTC , let's hunt together …Technical analysis:
DASH/BITCOIN is in a range bound and the resumption of uptrend is expected.
The price is below the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic resistance.
The RSI is at 47.
Trading suggestion:
The price is in a range bound, but we forecast the uptrend would resume.
There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support zone (0.0455 to 0.0418). if so, traders can set orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (0.0455)
Ending of entry zone (0.0418)
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to "Buy zone" then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether "Bullish Engulfing" , "Hammer" or "Valley" , in other words,
NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about "Entry signal" and special version of our "Price Action" strategy FOLLOW our lessons:
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 0.0502
TP2= @ 0.0571
TP3= @ 0.0630
TP4= @ 0.0727
TP5= @ 0.0920
TP6= @ 0.0972
TP7= Free
A Great Opportunity to Buy in DASHBTC , let's hunt together ...Technical analysis:
DASH/BITCOIN is in a range bound and the resumption of uptrend is expected.
The price is below the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic resistance.
The RSI is at 47.
Trading suggestion:
The price is in a range bound, but we forecast the uptrend would resume.
There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support zone (0.0455 to 0.0418). if so, traders can set orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (0.0455)
Ending of entry zone (0.0418)
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to "Buy zone" then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether "Bullish Engulfing" , "Hammer" or "Valley" , in other words,
NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about "Entry signal" and special version of our "Price Action" strategy FOLLOW our lessons:
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 0.0502
TP2= @ 0.0571
TP3= @ 0.0630
TP4= @ 0.0727
TP5= @ 0.0920
TP6= @ 0.0972
TP7= Free
ETH 2HR/TF. Bollinger Bands
Price is in between the top and bottom bands. Mild Volatility. Wait for bands to tighten up.
StochasticRSI
StochasticRSI is around 63. Potential bullish move
ADX
ADX at ~30 indicating this downtrend still has some steam left. Price may continue its trajectory down before it breaks the wedge.
MACD
Possible bullish divergence on the MACD if the volume can pick up.
Chart Pattern
The price is forming a falling wedge and indicates a possible bullish reversal if the price can break the upside.
Candlestick
The hammer bottom helps to confirm a possible bullish reversal.
INVERTED HAMMERThe Inverted Hammer is comprised of one candle. It is easily identified by the small body with
a shadow at least two times greater than the body. Found at the bottom of a downtrend, this
shows evidence that the bulls are stepping in, but the selling is still going on. The color of the
small body is not important but the white body has more bullish indications than a black body.
A positive day is required the following day to confirm this signal.
*DISCLAIMER*:
I am not a financial advisor nor am I giving financial advice.
I am sharing my biased opinion based on speculation.
You should not take my opinion as financial advice.
You should always do your research before making any investment.
You should also understand the risks of investing. This is all speculative based investing.
Another Bitcoin correction?Almost all cryptocurrencies are giving us red numbers. Pure analytically; could we've seen this coming? Actually, the answer is yes. After the reverse head and shoulder (see previous post) and an ascending price line BTC has touched the descending trend resistance line again. This together with an overbought StochRSI (1 day time frame), a very nice hammer shaped candle and a negative market sentiment made it very easy to predict BTC (and therefore the entire market) to decrease again.
The trick is now to predict when the price is going to turn around once again. I have marked 3 support lines in orange which I will be keeping an eye on. These support lines are based on previous support/resistance lines together with Fibonnaci (which I've removed out of this chart because it would make it look like a mess).
Please comment what you think and follow me for more BTC/crypto predictions.
Hammer ShortSSl recently has been recovering from a market correction. However, even tho the coppock curve and the ADX are saying this could be a buy, I see a hammer candlestick forming. This shows that the prior trend could be changing. So, I put a short position below the 50 MA. Also, volume seems to be decreasing.
Price Action Lesson 5: Weak Hammer (Example)Weak Hammer (Example):
The chart shows the price of Bitcoin vs. US Dollar. In 02/02/2018, as it says, buyers couldn't raise the price above the day open price, the D1 candle seems a Hammer with bearish body. So the final result wasn't clear and the next day, sellers could pullback the price. (Consider the red thick arrow)
$IOST - A quick TA of an impending breakoutQuick TA of the falling wedge
Red boxes: failed breakouts, as indicated by shooting stars on the candlesticks.
Red lines: resistance lines formed by finding the failed breakouts.
Price Action Lesson 4: Weak hammerWeak hammer:
For having successful and steady transactions, Simple detection of market patterns is not enough. But with a deeper look, we should calculate the success possibility of each pattern. One of the determining power Parameters of hammer stick is about Descending or ascending that the body can be. Thus, if the body of hammer is ascending, Possibility of starting an ascendant wave is very high.
The opening price of the day, is very important. This price - is the previous day's closing price, in fact it is the price that they had a war at in previous day where buyers and sellers come to equilibrium. So on the day that the Hammer is forming. If buyers can raise prices to the point of closing price of yesterday, and by the end of the day, they keep the price at the top of it, they will be the winners of the war. If we can raise the price above yesterday's closing price, they are not conclusive winners of today’s war, and this war will continue for the next few days.
Thus, if the body of hammer is ascending, Possibility of the beginning Ascending wave is very high. But if the body of hammer is Descending, Possibility of the beginning Ascending wave is less. In this case, it is said a weak hammer has made.
- The picture shows a hammer candlestick with descending body.
. As what can be seen, candle’s height is tall, but it has very short body height. Also Lower Shadow is long, and the upper shadow is very short.
. As regards the Closing Price of market is under its Opening Price, therefore the body of this hammer is Descending, and the power is very low. Possibility of the beginning ascending wave is less.
Price Action Lesson 3: Hammer, The first sign of beginning ...Hammer, The first sign of the beginning Ascending wave:
Hammer shows that the war between buyers and sellers, at the beginning of the day sellers could create significant reduction in price, with their high investments. But when the price had come to the lowest extent of it, many of buyers have entered with more investments than sellers. And again they could increase the price close to what it was at the beginning of the day or may even more. And at the war that was between buyers and sellers, the buyers have been the winners of the day, and the market is largely in control of them. Thus, the possibility of further price increases in the coming days is enormous.
example: picture Shows, currency pair of EUR/USD -0.31% in a 30 minutes time frame.
At the beginning, by increasing investments of sellers, the price became to 1.16886 But in this range with the arrival of large buyers to the market and overcome to turnover of shopping on sales transactions, the price increased again. Sellers could increase the selling price due to the amount of demand from buyers. The starting price is may be at 1.17495 but it increased by the end of the day to 1.17578.
As what can be seen, after forming Hammer , an Ascending wave started and the Price have increased more.
Price Action Lesson 2: Conditions of a Perfect Hammer Conditions of a Perfect Hammer:
. Body height must be short.
. The total height of the candle must be taller than the Daily ATR-264. The taller the candle is, the stronger the Hammer is.
. The lower shadow’s length should be very tall. It is better to be over 75 percent of the Daily ATR-264.
. The upper shadow does not exist, or if it does, it is very small. It shouldn't be more than 25 percent of the Daily ATR-264.
. The hammer that has an ascending body is stronger than the one which has a descending body.
Hammer Candlestick Pattern DefinitionHammer Candle Stick Definition
If there was a large drop in price in the middle of the day, but before the day ended it increased to what it was at the beginning of the day and even more, a significant upward return occurred. The candlestick of this change (move) will be a Hammer in a daily time frame. A Hammer formation on the daily time frame is a very strong indication for probability of increasing price in next days.
Example: The picture shows currency pair of EUR/USD in a 30 minute time frame. On Ausust 09, 2017 the price significantly decreased from 1.17495 to 1.16886 or even lower. But after that, it increased rapidly at the end of the day to 1.17578 and then closed.
Also in this picture - for better understanding - the Hammer Candlestick in the daily time frame - in the result of changes in a day - is drawn.