ridethepig | Copper Driving China Capital Flows As you can see the strong relationship Copper has with Chinese equities, you will notice what has been the case for these final stages of the economic cycle, metals have been moving miles ahead of equities.
We got the floor set in Copper as widely expected all year:
Any dips now look competitive:
Copper has been allowed to outperform Gold:
Bulls need to reclaim the highs in Chinese Equities after the -10% leg:
A weaker USD will help reinstate a bullish outlook for Copper, support clearly seen at $2.715, then $2.675 - which I expect to hold.
Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and as usual jump into the comments with your charts and views to open the conversation up for all!
Hangseng
Tencent Finally breaking out, time to go long? $700I like Tencent here,
MACD and RSI are bullish. broke out of the triangle.
My first target is around $400-405.
More about Tencent
Tencent Holdings Limited is a Chinese multinational conglomerate holding company founded in 1998, whose subsidiaries specialise in various Internet-related services and products, entertainment, artificial intelligence and technology both in China and globally.
My new favorite stockAnything can happen :)
Usually ponzi schemes (this is how I call hype greater fool bubbles) fall in 2 way:
1- Go up slowly fall fast (Enron I guess)
===> Retail and bad funds either want to secure the gains they waited so long for, or the weak uptrend got them in partial disbelief so they believe it can go very low and want to get out asap. They often get tricked into selling right before the uptrend resumes.
2- Go up fast fall slowly, such as in the following 2 examples:
===> The mania very rapid gains got people really excited, so they refuse to sell and so the price declines very slowly. They are persuaded the price will not get much lower and the downtrend is just temporary. This is often the most dangerous noob bait and they end up holding bags for a very long time.
It is not always the case, and also the timeframe is not always the same, like it could have gone up slowly on the weekly and fast on the daily and the dialy bubble pops but weekly is not in a bubble, etc.
It's a general idea thing. It is an intuition thing can't really define it you either get it or you don't.
Hang Seng: Symmetrical patterns show an extended uptrend to at lThe index has broken above the multi month descending channel that started on April's peak with a clear cross over the Lower High trend line (dashed line) on very healthy bullish 1D price action (RSI = 66.138, MACD = 47.598, Highs/Lows = 433.2348).
Since both 1W and 1M turned neutral (RSI = 54.126 and 51.251 respectively) we are looking at previous candle patterns for clues. So far we have spotted striking similarities with the October 2018 - January 2019 price action. Similar lows, High and rejection around 27,300 and then a continuous bullish sequence.
Based on that symmetry we have set the following targets: 29,000, 29,500 and 30,200, which should be used in accordance to each trader's risk approach. A Golden Cross on 1D (as it happened in March) will further validate this outlook.
In September we've made a similar analysis with targets based on Fibonacci retracements and is already near the first target:
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Hong Kong Stock Index (Is it about to Go UP?)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (27 Oct 2019)
HSI was trying to form a HIGHER HIGH, HIGHER LOW formation (HH-HL) and it is about to do a break.
We will need a strong break out with strong vol to validify the move and it is likely yo happen.
If it advances, it shall reach 27,000 and 27,100 regions pretty fast.
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HSI, are we going to 31600 ?Here is all patterns i can see with current HSI structure.
At 31600, there is a bearish gartley (78%).
At this exact same level, there is a 5-0 pattern (161% extension) which would lead to a ~50% drop in a form of AB=CD .
I tend to think, when fibs are nicely aligned (confluence) the probability is high to touch the level.
HSI could rally up to 31600, falls down 27400 and bounces back to 31600 again and higher...
Hang Seng: Symmetrical Golden/ Death Cross. Long term Buy SignalHang Seng has been devastated by the recent negative geopolitical climate, reaching in August the 24,900 1W Support. The rebound that followed on 1D was rejected near the Lower High trend line (dashed) and 1D MA200 (orange line) thus keeping 1W bearish (RSI = 43.695, MACD = -309.550, Highs/Lows = -317.3100).
We have had a Death Cross formation on that bottom and interestingly enough it is symmetrical with the Golden Cross in March. Since we already tested the 1W Support there are more probabilities now to resume the uptrend and reach at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (currently at 28,200) like Hang Seng did on its 2019 top. Anything above that will be bullish towards at least 30,200 (2019 High).
If however by any chance the index dip again to the 1W Support (the 2018 bottom was at 24,500) then that would be an even stronger long term buy signal towards the 33,500 ATH.
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Hang Seng to continue Lower?Not the textbook example of a head and shoulders pattern on the Hang Seng, but nonetheless showing us a transition from higher lows (uptrend) to now lower highs (downtrend).
I wouldn't really want to trade equities given world equity markets are remaining poised for the Federal Reserve rate decision...but I do like the break, and if we can confirm the retest here with a close below 27980 it would have my attention.
The 27400 zone is a potential first profit target.
China has come out saying they will not accept the protests in Hong Kong. They want things to cool down. If you follow my work, I have said China wants more control over Hong Kong (mostly getting rid of British Law) because it is a way for people to get money out of the country (also through Bitcoin as well), but also a way for Mainland China to get away from US Tariffs. Hong Kong is not targeted by Tariffs so Mainland can export from Hong Kong.
HSI Approaching Support, Prepare For A BounceHSI is bouncing off its 1st support(100% Fibonacci extension , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal pullback support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at (61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal swing high resistance).
ichimoku cloud is also showing support where a corresponding bounce could occur.
LONG HSI is approaching its support at 27240.6
HSI is approaching its support at 27240.6 (100% Fibonacci extension , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal pullback support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 30197.0(61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its support where a corresponding bounce could occur.
HSI is approaching its support at 27240.6 (100% Fibonacci extensHSI is approaching its support at 27240.6 (100% Fibonacci extension , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal pullback support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 30197.0(61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its support where a corresponding bounce could occur.
HSI Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce
HSI is approaching its support at 27240.6 (100% Fibonacci extension , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal pullback support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 30197.0(61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its support where a corresponding bounce could occur.
HSI Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce
Buy above. Stop loss at. Take profit at.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
HSI is approaching its support at 27240.6 (100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 30197.0(61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its support where a corresponding bounce could occur.
Hang Seng bearishEnded last week with a daily that bearishly engulfed the prior 3 days and it's rally back towards its all time high stopped right around the .618. I'd have to call that a dead cat. Also a hanging man at the top where the rally ended along with an island. Currently losing this fib level as we speak. looks bad.