Elliott Wave View: Hang Seng Index Correction In ProgressHang Seng 15 minutes chart below shows that the index has extended lower from July 7 peak. The decline is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave Structure. From July 7 high, wave W ended at 25570.36 low. The bounce in wave X ended at 26103.84 high. The pair then extended lower in wave Y, which ended at 24766.17 low. This completed wave (W) in larger degree. The decline reached the blue box area, which is the 100 – 123.6% extension of wave W-X. From that blue box, the Index did a 3 waves bounce in wave (X), which ended at 25772.41 high. The bounce unfolded as zig-zag Elliott Wave Structure.
Afterwards, the Index continued its decline and broke below previous wave (W) low. This confirms that the next leg lower in wave (Y) is already in progress. Down from wave (X) high, the index extended lower in wave A and ended at 24526.91 low. Wave A low ended at 61.8-76.4% extension of wave (W)-(X). From there, the index is currently doing a bounce in wave B. While below 25772.41 high, the bounce in 3,7 or 11 swings is expected to fail. The index then can do another leg lower in wave C before ending wave (Y) in the larger degree. The 100-161.8% extension of (W)-(X) where (Y) can end is between 22486-23743 area.
Hangseng
$HSI - Hang Seng Futures Very Bearish$AAPL $SPY $QQQ $NQ_F -- $HSI_F The hang seng futures daily chart is still extremely bearish. It recently restested the neckline of a previously broken down H&S and rejected hard. As you can see from the chart its also in a clear bear flag that is likely to break down very soon
HANG SENG - Could we get further decline?I took a short at the areas at the top, it was looking very over extended. The line I always use and think when I analyse and my life philosophy - What goes up must come down - and vice versa. But the key question is - if we go below further the trend line up, and we have clear further declined I would short the further decline. However, we are at a key area and test the areas of the highs again. Smaller time frames my indicate patterns or candle formation to validate further.
Coming Down NicelyAfter the Buying Climax on 7th of July, brief distribution was carried out between 25950-26250.
Today saw a gap down and a selloff to first of the 4 unfilled gaps below which is acting as a support for time being.
Key resistance above now is 25850-950.
Move down so far appears to be in a channel formation.
Major chunk of distribution took place between 24500-300 since the low in March. Gap through that will signal the start of a markdown and accelerated move towards 20k and below.
Regards
Update: SELL SELL SELL!!!
More on the post earlier Today.
HSI now has rallied beyond the point which i have marked for few weeks as the potential turning point. We may see brief distribution between 25950-26250 for couple of sessions and then move lower. I am to remain short until it breaks above 26800.
I am of a view that the rally so far this month after the passing of controversial security law is to trap the investors who were on the sidelines waiting to see how the market perceives the new law.
There is 10 weeks of distribution near 24k. If it reverses, 20k may come in no time.
Breaking up with HUGE VolumeToday saw a huge surge in volume in the morning hour. Double the usual.
Next few days are critical.
From a bullish POV, HSI is now breaking out of a 10 week range with a high volume but to predict whether it truly is a break to the top or a trap, it is important to know what happened within the range and how the market approached the breakout.
To my understanding, it was distribution(as i have been pointing out in my previous posts) and there is very little left in it.
2 possible scenarios to top out are as drawn on the chart. Triangle(Blue). Ending Diagonal(Orange).
Regards
HSI UpdateTop did come albeit 2 days late, important or not, we will know in next few days. Ideally, i would like to hv seen more distribution between 25k-26k but as pointed out in previous posts, there was high volume selling in the last move up from 22400 so it was bound to run out of gas real soon.
Pullbacks should be capped below 24500. Definitely dont want to see 24800 tested anytime soon. 22900-22400 will be key and if the markdown has started, this area needs to be quickly overcome perhaps with an acceleration gap.
I am not of a view that it is the start of deflationary crash as many expect and fear. NOT YET at least. Refer to my 23 May post, "Markdown or Shakeout?" linked below.
Quickly down to 20k and back to 25k-26k :D. One can dream.
Hang Seng Futures : Long ==> + % 4.97Hi.
Reference Length = 337 bars (56 1D Bars)
Percentage change of General Terminal in the process of 337 bars:
Parameters
Position Size : %1 (0.01)
Leverage : 50x
Risk/Reward Ratio : 3.00
Stop-Loss : 24556
Goal : 26210
NOTE : Must pay attention to the current internal factors of Hong Kong.
Therefore, stop-loss must be established.
Regards.
Important TOP just ahead.
Didn't get the pullback before run for new highs as anticipated in the last analysis but on the flip side it means very little left to distribute. A pullback would have meant more to distribute above but now it looks like a quick up and back down.
We have 7 weeks of distribution mainly between 23750 - 24250(See previous posts)
Without volume, the last few days may seem like a start of a strong uptrend but zoom in and it appears very much like a SL hunt. Trends can't start without first accumulation/distribution and i see very little accumulation below for it to keep going for long.
Initial plan was to go short at 25300-500 but not sure if we will get there so i will look for reversal signs as soon as it gets above 24800. Target 20500 - 20000.
Some news will follow real soon as always but markets only move when those who control them are ready to move.
Hang Seng outlookPrice continues higher, soon should be approaching resistance zone and 50% fib level as economies around the world are opening and demand returns.
Once that level breaks, we can buy and target the 61.8% level below 26000.
Intraday early entries possible on smaller time frames.
Please support the idea and share your thoughts on HSI!
Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
Hong Kong Stock Index (The Late Sellers are trapped now)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (16 MAY 2020)
It has hit our expected TP level yesterday.
If a trader rushed into HSI shorted over the bad situation gets trapped now.
This is how the market works.
I will be waiting for another entry, possibly short at a higher level.
Possibly near 24,250 regions.
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Strong Head WindsWe did gap up and didn't fill, trapping the late sellers but high volume selling in this up move. Unlikely that accumulation below was enough to carry it to new HIGHS in one go.
It can come crashing down at any moment but if it can get to 25300-500, that will be a very good short opportunity.
Regards
Interesting Monday ahead
All set for a very interesting Monday's opening.
Channel support held on for whole week while the sellers kept up the pressure and are now just above the accumulation zone. Gap up will trap the sellers and may not fill in near term with price quickly marching towards 25k. Gap down will open the door towards first the gap at 21882 and then towards march low at 20968.
If Monday opens near the current prices then watch out for trap(First move usually being a trap)
Volume was high whenever price came back in the accumulation zone which is often the case prior to a significant move.
Short term = Neutral,
Medium Term = Bullish,
Long Term = Bearish.
Which is The Hang Seng 50 Going? (HSI) WAVE 5 Down!!!
Hang Seng China 50 Index is a pan-China stock market index to represent the top 50 China-based companies in the stock exchanges of Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen, which covers A share (shares circulated in mainland China), H share (shares circulated in Hong Kong from the mainland China incorporated company), Red Chip (shares circulated in Hong Kong from the companies incorporated outside mainland China with state-owned background) and P Chip (shares circulated in Hong Kong from the companies with private background)