BYD Short: Price target of $166.8 by EOYI expect BYD to fall to $166.8 given the following:
1. Price fall before trendline cut = price fall after trendline cut
2. Fibonacci extension level of wave 5 (of C) = 1.618 of wave 1 (of C).
Hangsengindex
HSI Short: Target ~15000This is a short update to HSI. I will expect that the burst up today is a corrective wave 4 and for the next 2 weeks, a correction down to 15000.
HSI Short: Target 15000 till EOY 2023My previous analysis of the Hang Seng Index was invalidated. And now I've done a revamp of the wave counts for 2023.
This is the summary:
1. Hang Seng will continue to fall either till Christmas or EOY.
2. Target support, or end of correction, will be 14980-15100. Look out for this support zone.
China A50: Last wave down. Prepare to long for the new year 2024To summarize:
1. We are currently in the 5th wave down. The last wave.
2. Potentially a sharp drop for the last 2 weeks of Dec 2023.
3. Price might follow the same pattern as Dec 2018.
4. Target 10130-10145.
Hang Seng Index: Pending Explosive Move UpIn this analysis, I talk about how I used Elliott Waves to count the moves of Hang Seng Index from Jan 2018 to 24th Nov 2023.
The main points to take note are these:
1. The corrective move down in 2023 is over.
2. We are still in a minor corrective move down.
3. But a wave 3 up is round the corner and that it will be an explosive one.
4. The risk is low for this bullish trade.
Hang Seng Index: Motivated! 💪The bulls were able to push the Hang Seng Index significantly higher on Friday, moving it further away from the yellow trading range between 17,424 and 15,571. However, we still expect the price to return to this area as part of the magenta wave (2) to make a lower low before the reversal occurs. That said, given the price action so far, we have to increase the probability of our alternative to 41%. In this case, the low of the magenta wave alt.(2) would already be in place and this scenario would come into play on a rise above the resistance at 18,898. However, it should be noted that our long-term expectation has already been fulfilled with the completion of the trading range. In both cases, there is considerable upside potential in the medium to long term. The price should clearly overcome the resistance at 20,899.
HONG KONG joins the bull marketThe HANG SENG INDEX is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong.
The index has underperformed the rest of the world since March 2020 and was among the worst performing indices globally from 2020-2022.
In October 2022 however the Index seems to have moved up in a 5 wave structure after having seen quite a freefall from Feb. 2021. This 5 wave advance completed in Jan 2023, and since then, till the very recent low of Oct.2023 the Index corrected 61.8% of the entire Wave 1 rise.
Now however, the Index is ready give a massive 40-45% up move as the Wave 3 unfolds itself going forward into 2024-2025.
Note*- This post is for educational purpose only
Geely: Bears are back 🍯🐻The bears have now pushed Geely stock back below its March low. This confirms our primary scenario that the stock is in the final phase of the overarching gray wave II from the high of the magenta wave (B). This move should now be advanced to the green target zone between HK$7.80 and HK$4.12. With the low placed, the price should then move significantly higher.
Finally a chance to buy HK50The market is STILL BEARISH but,
1) HK50 is now fully oversold.
2) There is a harmonic pattern
3) There is H1 RSI divergence
Tight stop loss. We need to ensure to exit quickly as the market is still down.
Stock Index Review...Key Levels you need to watch!!We take a look at the Daily charts and price action on our Key Indexes.
It is important to have a longer term view of the price action and risk levels on the key markets so we will discuss our major markets and what we are looking for in the video.
We take a look at the following Key Indexes:-
Nasdaq, DOW, DAX, FTSE, ASX200, Hang Seng and the Nikkei.
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Hong Kong50 Hang Seng Short Bears Remain in Controlbearish start to the week, with hawkish central banks and growth fears continue weighing on investor sentiment ahead of a busy week.
The theme remained the same, with investor jitters over the economic outlook weighing on investor sentiment.
There were no economic indicators from the region to change the mood.
Market Overview
It was a bearish morning session for the Asian markets. The ASX 200 led the way down, with the Hang Seng and the Nikkei also struggling.
The Asian equity markets tracked the US equity markets into the red, with fears of central banks sending the global economy into a recession weighing. Hawkish Fed Chair Powell testimony continued to resonate this morning. Last week’s Bank of England 50-basis point interest rate hike was a reminder of central bank commitments to tame inflation.
Despite softer US private sector PMI numbers on Friday, the markets are still betting on a Fed 25-basis point interest rate hike in July. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point July Fed rate hike stood at 71.9% versus 74.4% one week ago.
Significantly, the chances of the Fed lifting rates to 5.75% in September stood at 11.5%, up from 8.9% one week earlier.
Bank stocks also had a mixed morning. HSBC Holdings PLC and The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (HK:1398) saw losses of 0.33% and 0.24%, respectively, while China Construction Bank (HK: 0939) rose by 0.40%.
Strategy Bearish Short
RSI confirming permanent trend continuation
Bulltraps can be used to sell more and stronger
Trendlines shold be used in 2 ways:
bearish breakout of the trendlines should be sed to new bearish enries or position sizing only.
Bullish breakouts should be used as profit taking or trading the 2nd wave only.
Bullish breakouts are often traps.
Bullish HSI Can Be Supportive For The KiwiNice bounce on HSI, looks like a bottom in 2022 because of an impulse up, now right shoulder at support. China is doing everything to support its economy, but with high rates in other major countries, they just cannot pick up that easily.
However, when economy in China will really start picking up that’s when commodity currencies like AUD and NZD can benefit. Also, recently China announced that they are in trade talks with New Zealand, so maybe NZD has also nice upside potential especially vs USD, now when FED can be close to end the hiking policy. Looking at NZDUSD chart, we can see slow price action and corrective wave structure after an impulse from the lows, which indicates for more gains in upcoming weeks/months.
Daytrade Review on the Hang Seng IndexI small trade today on the Hang Seng Index that turned out to be quick and simple with little to no pressure from the entry. Could have been a better exit but all up it was a good start to the day.
I will explain the price action for the Entry and the reasoning for the trade coming into the start of the session.
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Hang Seng: Thumbed 👍Exemplarily, Hang Seng has thumbed our target zone and turned upwards from there. Thus, we classify wave 2 in turquoise as complete. Now, wave 3 in turquoise should carry Hang Seng above the resistance at 21 056 points. The counter movement of wave 4 in turquoise should then push the index back toward this mark before the ascent can be resumed once again. However, there is a 39% chance that Hang Seng could interrupt the current upwards movement, shifting southwards to develop the new low of wave alt.2 in turquoise, which should then be established before the support at 17 948 points.
Why we don't use indicators?Many traders apply indicators for their analysis in their next trade.
However, indicators formulate with historical price movement to tell us what is happening right now. It is not so much of telling us what is going to happen.
The reason is simple, it is like economic policies, can manipulate the economy figure. But it doesn't tell us exactly the expectation of the market, such as big players or hot money flow.
If you are using bollinger band on HSI the past 1 week, you would have made huge losses. Because the indicators is just using the average of previous price to plot the possible oversold point.
HSI has been in the oversold 5 days including the moment we are posting here.
Therefore, it is less efficient in telling us what is happening right now. Which is very important for trader to know what is the current big players sentiment. Rather just based on what happened before that could affect the present.
What we eat few days back doesn't mean the output will be the same as what we had few days back. (unless is constipation)
Hang Seng Index (HSI) WCA - Inverted Head and Shoulders PatternHello and thank you for taking the time to read my post. Today, we analyze the Hang Seng Index (HSI) on the weekly scale, focusing on a classic price pattern called the "Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern." The Hang Seng Index is the leading stock index in Hong Kong and one of the most important in Asia. It tracks the share prices of the 50 largest and most traded companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, representing about 57% of the total market capitalization on this exchange.
Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern:
The inverted head and shoulders pattern is a bullish reversal pattern that occurs at the end of a downtrend. It is characterized by three troughs or valleys, with the middle one being the lowest (the head) and the two on either side being relatively higher (the shoulders). The pattern is completed by a horizontal line called the "neckline," which connects the highs of the shoulders. In a nutshell, the formation of the inverted head and shoulders pattern signals a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend.
Remember, this is just a brief introduction to the technical aspects of the inverted head and shoulders pattern. As you delve deeper into this topic, you'll discover more nuances and practical applications that can enhance your trading strategies.
Additional Analysis:
Upon analyzing the HSI weekly chart, we observe a downward trend since 16/02/2021, with the blue diagonal resistance line representing the general trend. As classic chart pattern analysts, our attention is immediately drawn to the textbook example of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, clearly defined with the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder. The symmetry between the shoulders is perfect, and the pattern has been forming for an impressive 491 days. This is noteworthy because the longer a price pattern remains consistent, the more powerful the eventual breakout will be.
We cannot predict when the right shoulder will form and break out, but we can see that the price supports the symmetry line in the form of a bullish engulfing (orange mark). The price is currently still below the 200 EMA, which is another indication that we should continue to watch this price pattern closely and not jump to conclusions. Thus, we patiently await our opportunity.
Conclusion:
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) weekly chart showcases an Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern, reflecting a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. By closely monitoring the pattern's intricacies and the market's subtle cues, traders can be better prepared for any potential price action in the future. As always, it's essential to consider risk management and proper position sizing when trading based on chart patterns.
Please note that this analysis is not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence when investing or trading.
If you found this analysis helpful, please like, share, and follow for more updates. Happy trading!
Best regards,
How to identify a TREND or RANGE market early in DaytradingTrading and Price Action can be broken down into tow simple terms...a 'range bound' market and a 'trend' market. Being able to identify the price action early is key to successful daytrading.
In the video I discuss how I like to daytrade Indexes and especially how I look to identify a RANGE or a TREND market. As there really is only TWO WAYs to trade....ie/ reversion to the mean or continuation trading...it is important to identify the market conditions early to get on the right side of the market and take full advantage of a move up or down.
I discuss my basic approach to trading and what I look for to identify the market conditions.
I talk about my trading style and general entry criteria.
Any comments or questions welcome below.
HANG SENG BUYIncreasing confidence for global economic resilience in 2023. Global growth for 2023 has continued to improve. The U.S. has started the year with a degree of momentum, even if activity could wane as the year progresses. Chinese activity is bouncing back as the economy reopens, while the Eurozone is likely to benefit as energy prices have receded and headline inflation has slowed. While banking and financial sector strains have clouded the outlook to some extent, we ultimately believe authorities will do whatever is needed and will be successful in containing those difficulties. Against that backdrop, our upwardly revised forecast means we now expect the global economy to avoid recession this year.
Intraday BUY HK50 (03 APR 2023)HK50 intraday trading alert
3 simple steps to find a quality setup !
Risk Reward Ratio 1: 2
Anyone same idea with me?
BUY HK50
Good luck traders..
HangSeng The Set Up For A Pivotal 18k TestIn this update we review the recent price action in the Hang Seng and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives tot a
Hang Seng bounced strongly! Is the China bull back?Something bullish is happening in China, potentially primarily due to the reopening and all the liquidity injections by the PBoC. China never raised rates while slowly adding liquidity to markets. We saw a significant capitulation when Xi became emperor for life by removing everyone that could potentially cause trouble to him from the CCP, as well as when we first saw the first sanctions on China by the US. It's clear that the US and China are in a cold war, and the US will keep imposing sanctions on China... Many of which might come back to bite it. Now there is talk about capital controls, yet China holds many US bonds and has been part of why inflation stayed low for so long. Of course, China has many issues, but so does the US, and what they both have in common is that they will have to print a ton of money.
What's critical here is that the Hang Seng has been trending lower for a while, especially since China started taking 'back' Hong Kong, but then started bottoming around peak China fears (never reopening + Taiwan invasion). For now, an invasion seems unlikely, and all the concerns about capital controls could not have the result everyone thinks they will. The market is incredibly oversold, and Chinese investors may be forced to repatriate their capital and start investing there.
''The Hang Seng Index can be used as a bellwether for markets worldwide. If the gain in Hang Seng holds, that would be a bullish indicant for markets worldwide. If the low is violated, that would suggest continued decline in other markets as well. We say this because the late January and early February market peaks were a worldwide phenomenon. Stocks, Bonds and Commodities all peaked in tandem, suggesting a shift in the underlying perception of the fundamentals from one of continued growth and declining inflation to one of slower growth or recession accompanied by persistent inflationary pressures.''
Milton W Berg CFA
@BergMilton
I agree with Milton, and to me, this looks special. First, HSI bounced right at the Yearly pivot. The bounce came to a massive rally from the lows, which swept the double top, hit resistance, and had a decent pullback. The bounce straight into the monthly pivot, which usually acts as a magnet. So we have gone from pivot to pivot very quickly. When looking at CN50, we get an extra confirmation that something bullish is happening. Again, massive rally, significant pullback, bounce at support, reclaim yearly pivot, a break above the monthly pivot, slight pullback, and sit right above the monthly pivot. Technically both look bullish to me.
Only a close of 2% below the recent lows would make me think that the market is about to keep going lower. Until then, I assume that both these markets are in a bull market and that China isn't as uninvestable as many make it seem to be. Of course, if you are a US investor, you shouldn't be investing in China, but for most of the rest of the world, China seems fine (for now). They keep getting cheap oil from Russia, they are politically stable (nobody to go against Xi), won't invade Taiwan anytime soon (based on what they saw in Ukraine), and Japan also kept printing and didn't raise rates (capital flows into China)
Hang Seng: Wait for It… ☝️Hang Seng is still busy in the magenta-colored zone between 20 867 and 18 707 points. On the one hand, the index has slowed the descent and could very well have completed wave (4) in magenta by now, readying itself to take off. After all, the requirements for the current movement’s conclusion have already been met by touching at the magenta-colored zone. On the other hand, Hang Seng still has got some room to expand wave (4) a bit deeper and could indeed make use of the whole magenta-colored zone. As soon as this low is established, though, the index should turn upwards and climb above the resistance at 22 798 points. However, there is a 36% chance that Hang Seng could develop wave alt.A and alt.B in turquoise first, the latter leading it out of the magenta-colored zone. In that case, wave alt.C should push the index back down into this area, where it should finish wave alt.(4) in magenta as well before moving northwards again.
Hang Seng searching out new lowsHanG Seng came under fire and could see new lows in coming days. The price action recently flushed through resistance at 22416 and is now unwinding longs positions on a move down. A break below 21068 could see a move into 20165.
