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Are we close to peak China pessimism?President Xi Jinping’s New Year address put paid to hopes of much larger stimulus. In his address, President Xi pointed to the consolidation and enhancement of the economic recovery and no signs of a boost from policy coming. Furthermore, China’s economic growth for 2023 came out at 5.2%, above the central government’s 5% forecast, which it boasted it was able to achieve without relying on large stimulus. China’s real GDP growth to slow further in 2024. Investors' pessimism towards China’s economy could be nearing a peak given recent efforts by policymakers to stabilize sentiment. Policymakers acting to stabilize sentiment: China’s policymakers are feeling the need to stabilize investor sentiment and this week have taken two steps in this direction. First, following a recent State Council meeting, Premier Li Qiang suggested help is on the way for China’s beleaguered stock market. Newswire reports suggest this help could include CNY 2.3trn of funds (mainly from SOEs) to buy Chinese equities to prop up the market. Such a measure could help put a bottom on investors’ China pessimism. However, such purchases would not address their underlying concerns including a weak residential property market, local government debts, the lack of policy easing, and the risk of another regulatory clampdown. Second, the PBoC surprised with an RRR cut as well as a cut to its re-lending and discount rates. While I was expecting cuts to both, the size and timing were surprising given the recent disappointment of the PBoC keeping its MLF on hold. The PBoC also sounded dovish suggesting further room to ease policy given the gap between actual and target prices and the Fed’s pivot towards easing. Check out my other ideas:
TVC:HSILong
by Elite_Forex
HSI: Already finished? 👀The HSI has risen sharply since Monday. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the index is still working on a magenta-colored downward structure and is therefore not yet finished with its correction. Only after this five-part wave, and thus the turquoise-colored wave 3, has come to an end should things pick up a good bit - even if there is still further downside on a Long-term level. However, there is also a 33% probable alternative, which envisages a sustained rise and considers the past low to be the low of the green wave alt.(2). This scenario comes into effect if the resistance at 18 846 points is exceeded.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by MarketIntel
Ride the Japanese Wave, Don't Grab That China Falling KnifeIt was nearly three years ago when the China stock market notched a short-term peak. Recall how the world's second-largest economy was initially seen as a growth engine coming out of the worst of the pandemic. An authoritative regime in China, led by President Xi Jinping, crippled the economy's expansion trajectory through harsh ongoing lockdowns and by clamping down on many industries, one after another. Then in early 2023, hope sprang eternal that China would re-open amid a burst of consumer spending, a la what was seen during the 'revenge travel' period in the United States back in 2021 and 2022. That did not come to fruition, and the Hang Seng Index is now down by more than 50% in the last three years. With all that turmoil going on in China, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index has continued to soar. Up more than 20% since February of 2021, the once sleepy Tokyo stock market features among the best momentum readings of all countries. Based on these trends, sticking with the 'long Nikkei, short China' trade should keep working, in my view. Another way to play it is by being long developed market stocks and avoiding emerging market funds (which still have a roughly 20% allocation to China). Finally, while China trades at a single-digit P/E ratio today, Japan is by no means expensive. Goldman Sachs notes that the country's current 12-month forward earnings multiple is just 14.9, about average compared to its 20-year history (Asia-Pac ex-Japan is 12.3x, for perspective). Interestingly, Japan is back up to 6% of the global stock market allocation while China has sunk to just 3%. Perhaps it is indeed the land of the rising sun while China is a classic "sub"-merging market. A solid ETF to play Japan continues to be the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) which hedges exposure to the Japanese Yen. The ETF has a solid track record of outperforming other Japanese country funds.
TVC:HSILong
by mikezaccardi
1
Hang Seng Index: Motivated! 💪The bulls were able to push the Hang Seng Index significantly higher on Friday, moving it further away from the yellow trading range between 17,424 and 15,571. However, we still expect the price to return to this area as part of the magenta wave (2) to make a lower low before the reversal occurs. That said, given the price action so far, we have to increase the probability of our alternative to 41%. In this case, the low of the magenta wave alt.(2) would already be in place and this scenario would come into play on a rise above the resistance at 18,898. However, it should be noted that our long-term expectation has already been fulfilled with the completion of the trading range. In both cases, there is considerable upside potential in the medium to long term. The price should clearly overcome the resistance at 20,899.
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
HONG KONG joins the bull marketThe HANG SENG INDEX is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The index has underperformed the rest of the world since March 2020 and was among the worst performing indices globally from 2020-2022. In October 2022 however the Index seems to have moved up in a 5 wave structure after having seen quite a freefall from Feb. 2021. This 5 wave advance completed in Jan 2023, and since then, till the very recent low of Oct.2023 the Index corrected 61.8% of the entire Wave 1 rise. Now however, the Index is ready give a massive 40-45% up move as the Wave 3 unfolds itself going forward into 2024-2025. Note*- This post is for educational purpose only
HSI:HSILong
by neeraj_2_sharma
6
Stock Index Review...Key Levels you need to watch!!We take a look at the Daily charts and price action on our Key Indexes. It is important to have a longer term view of the price action and risk levels on the key markets so we will discuss our major markets and what we are looking for in the video. We take a look at the following Key Indexes:- Nasdaq, DOW, DAX, FTSE, ASX200, Hang Seng and the Nikkei. *** Feel free to take a look at our profile page and Please Follow for more content *** *** Please Leave a Like and Comment if you enjoyed this video ***
TVC:NI225
by ReverseRetail
Hong Kong50 Hang Seng Short Bears Remain in Controlbearish start to the week, with hawkish central banks and growth fears continue weighing on investor sentiment ahead of a busy week. The theme remained the same, with investor jitters over the economic outlook weighing on investor sentiment. There were no economic indicators from the region to change the mood. Market Overview It was a bearish morning session for the Asian markets. The ASX 200 led the way down, with the Hang Seng and the Nikkei also struggling. The Asian equity markets tracked the US equity markets into the red, with fears of central banks sending the global economy into a recession weighing. Hawkish Fed Chair Powell testimony continued to resonate this morning. Last week’s Bank of England 50-basis point interest rate hike was a reminder of central bank commitments to tame inflation. Despite softer US private sector PMI numbers on Friday, the markets are still betting on a Fed 25-basis point interest rate hike in July. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point July Fed rate hike stood at 71.9% versus 74.4% one week ago. Significantly, the chances of the Fed lifting rates to 5.75% in September stood at 11.5%, up from 8.9% one week earlier. Bank stocks also had a mixed morning. HSBC Holdings PLC and The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (HK:1398) saw losses of 0.33% and 0.24%, respectively, while China Construction Bank (HK: 0939) rose by 0.40%. Strategy Bearish Short RSI confirming permanent trend continuation Bulltraps can be used to sell more and stronger Trendlines shold be used in 2 ways: bearish breakout of the trendlines should be sed to new bearish enries or position sizing only. Bullish breakouts should be used as profit taking or trading the 2nd wave only. Bullish breakouts are often traps.
CAPITALCOM:HK50Short
by DaveBrascoFX
Bullish HSI Can Be Supportive For The KiwiNice bounce on HSI, looks like a bottom in 2022 because of an impulse up, now right shoulder at support. China is doing everything to support its economy, but with high rates in other major countries, they just cannot pick up that easily. However, when economy in China will really start picking up that’s when commodity currencies like AUD and NZD can benefit. Also, recently China announced that they are in trade talks with New Zealand, so maybe NZD has also nice upside potential especially vs USD, now when FED can be close to end the hiking policy. Looking at NZDUSD chart, we can see slow price action and corrective wave structure after an impulse from the lows, which indicates for more gains in upcoming weeks/months.
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by ew-forecast
Daytrade Review on the Hang Seng IndexI small trade today on the Hang Seng Index that turned out to be quick and simple with little to no pressure from the entry. Could have been a better exit but all up it was a good start to the day. I will explain the price action for the Entry and the reasoning for the trade coming into the start of the session. ** If you like the content then take a look at my WEBSITE in the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material ** ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. **
HKEX:HSI1!Education
by TradeTheStructure
Hang Seng: Thumbed 👍Exemplarily, Hang Seng has thumbed our target zone and turned upwards from there. Thus, we classify wave 2 in turquoise as complete. Now, wave 3 in turquoise should carry Hang Seng above the resistance at 21 056 points. The counter movement of wave 4 in turquoise should then push the index back toward this mark before the ascent can be resumed once again. However, there is a 39% chance that Hang Seng could interrupt the current upwards movement, shifting southwards to develop the new low of wave alt.2 in turquoise, which should then be established before the support at 17 948 points.
HKEX:HSI1!
by MarketIntel
Why we don't use indicators?Many traders apply indicators for their analysis in their next trade. However, indicators formulate with historical price movement to tell us what is happening right now. It is not so much of telling us what is going to happen. The reason is simple, it is like economic policies, can manipulate the economy figure. But it doesn't tell us exactly the expectation of the market, such as big players or hot money flow. If you are using bollinger band on HSI the past 1 week, you would have made huge losses. Because the indicators is just using the average of previous price to plot the possible oversold point. HSI has been in the oversold 5 days including the moment we are posting here. Therefore, it is less efficient in telling us what is happening right now. Which is very important for trader to know what is the current big players sentiment. Rather just based on what happened before that could affect the present. What we eat few days back doesn't mean the output will be the same as what we had few days back. (unless is constipation)
HSI:HSI
by ROUNDnSURGE89
1
Hang Seng Index (HSI) WCA - Inverted Head and Shoulders PatternHello and thank you for taking the time to read my post. Today, we analyze the Hang Seng Index (HSI) on the weekly scale, focusing on a classic price pattern called the "Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern." The Hang Seng Index is the leading stock index in Hong Kong and one of the most important in Asia. It tracks the share prices of the 50 largest and most traded companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, representing about 57% of the total market capitalization on this exchange. Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern: The inverted head and shoulders pattern is a bullish reversal pattern that occurs at the end of a downtrend. It is characterized by three troughs or valleys, with the middle one being the lowest (the head) and the two on either side being relatively higher (the shoulders). The pattern is completed by a horizontal line called the "neckline," which connects the highs of the shoulders. In a nutshell, the formation of the inverted head and shoulders pattern signals a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. Remember, this is just a brief introduction to the technical aspects of the inverted head and shoulders pattern. As you delve deeper into this topic, you'll discover more nuances and practical applications that can enhance your trading strategies. Additional Analysis: Upon analyzing the HSI weekly chart, we observe a downward trend since 16/02/2021, with the blue diagonal resistance line representing the general trend. As classic chart pattern analysts, our attention is immediately drawn to the textbook example of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, clearly defined with the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder. The symmetry between the shoulders is perfect, and the pattern has been forming for an impressive 491 days. This is noteworthy because the longer a price pattern remains consistent, the more powerful the eventual breakout will be. We cannot predict when the right shoulder will form and break out, but we can see that the price supports the symmetry line in the form of a bullish engulfing (orange mark). The price is currently still below the 200 EMA, which is another indication that we should continue to watch this price pattern closely and not jump to conclusions. Thus, we patiently await our opportunity. Conclusion: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) weekly chart showcases an Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern, reflecting a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. By closely monitoring the pattern's intricacies and the market's subtle cues, traders can be better prepared for any potential price action in the future. As always, it's essential to consider risk management and proper position sizing when trading based on chart patterns. Please note that this analysis is not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence when investing or trading. If you found this analysis helpful, please like, share, and follow for more updates. Happy trading! Best regards,
HSI:HSI
by KarimSubhieh
How to identify a TREND or RANGE market early in DaytradingTrading and Price Action can be broken down into tow simple terms...a 'range bound' market and a 'trend' market. Being able to identify the price action early is key to successful daytrading. In the video I discuss how I like to daytrade Indexes and especially how I look to identify a RANGE or a TREND market. As there really is only TWO WAYs to trade....ie/ reversion to the mean or continuation trading...it is important to identify the market conditions early to get on the right side of the market and take full advantage of a move up or down. I discuss my basic approach to trading and what I look for to identify the market conditions. I talk about my trading style and general entry criteria. Any comments or questions welcome below.
HKEX:HSI1!Education
by TradeTheStructure
HANG SENG BUYIncreasing confidence for global economic resilience in 2023. Global growth for 2023 has continued to improve. The U.S. has started the year with a degree of momentum, even if activity could wane as the year progresses. Chinese activity is bouncing back as the economy reopens, while the Eurozone is likely to benefit as energy prices have receded and headline inflation has slowed. While banking and financial sector strains have clouded the outlook to some extent, we ultimately believe authorities will do whatever is needed and will be successful in containing those difficulties. Against that backdrop, our upwardly revised forecast means we now expect the global economy to avoid recession this year.
HKEX:HSI1!
by thunderpips