Hong Kong Hang Seng index getting interesting again. $HSI Currently, we are still inside the descending channel pattern.
If we do breakout, 26k is the next resistance.
Hangsengindex
Hang Seng Weekend Planning 2020 Sep 26HSI1!
Price edged higher.
Volume did not indicate convincing buying.
My preferred Long / Short scenario.
#DYODD #NotTradeCall
Insight into the thought processAs i am getting a lot of questions, i decided to present the thought process of my recent analysis. I hv very little PC knowledge so i can't present analysis in a very professional way. If you have any question, i will be glad to help.
HSI - to bounce or to break?The Hang Seng Index had a boosting rally a couple of weeks ago, but lost its hold at the top of the channel and had been working its way down slowly since. Unlike the STI, the HSI appears relatively stronger given the environment and situations it has been in, particularly over the past year and a half.
It is a t the lower end of the channel, and candlesticks indicate a slight push down to test the support, followed by a bounce, and a likely fail about two or three weeks later... the downside fallout could come earlier, but there is little now to trigger it, albeit a surging COVID-19 cases in the territory.
Ominous weeks to follow, watch for bounce or failure.
Post Fed. HSI Super BearishRallied briefly but as anticipated it was short lived and sold off from first resistance. We now have an inside day fake out on dailies and are very close to the key levels 24300-500. Acceleration gap through there will signal the start of mark down. With the amount of distribution, 20k should be minimum but its not just the last 3 months. It has been going on since late 2017(refer to my 23 May post, linked below).
If you are short, hold onto this one. It can be very big.
Elliott Wave View: Hang Seng Index Correction In ProgressHang Seng 15 minutes chart below shows that the index has extended lower from July 7 peak. The decline is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave Structure. From July 7 high, wave W ended at 25570.36 low. The bounce in wave X ended at 26103.84 high. The pair then extended lower in wave Y, which ended at 24766.17 low. This completed wave (W) in larger degree. The decline reached the blue box area, which is the 100 – 123.6% extension of wave W-X. From that blue box, the Index did a 3 waves bounce in wave (X), which ended at 25772.41 high. The bounce unfolded as zig-zag Elliott Wave Structure.
Afterwards, the Index continued its decline and broke below previous wave (W) low. This confirms that the next leg lower in wave (Y) is already in progress. Down from wave (X) high, the index extended lower in wave A and ended at 24526.91 low. Wave A low ended at 61.8-76.4% extension of wave (W)-(X). From there, the index is currently doing a bounce in wave B. While below 25772.41 high, the bounce in 3,7 or 11 swings is expected to fail. The index then can do another leg lower in wave C before ending wave (Y) in the larger degree. The 100-161.8% extension of (W)-(X) where (Y) can end is between 22486-23743 area.
Monday's opening will have a lot to say
Gap through 24500 and there will be no looking back. No Gap may provide great opportunity to go short around 26k.
Coming Down NicelyAfter the Buying Climax on 7th of July, brief distribution was carried out between 25950-26250.
Today saw a gap down and a selloff to first of the 4 unfilled gaps below which is acting as a support for time being.
Key resistance above now is 25850-950.
Move down so far appears to be in a channel formation.
Major chunk of distribution took place between 24500-300 since the low in March. Gap through that will signal the start of a markdown and accelerated move towards 20k and below.
Regards
Buying Climax and a Top?
Zigzagged with huge volume(see above) at the open, took out the stops above the very important level marked in Yesterday's post and has since been on the decline. We will know for sure in next few sessions but there is a good chance that Today marks the start of a significant decline which will take HSI to 20k and below if my analysis of distribution near the 24k level are correct.
First significant support is the gap at 25250-500. It can get real ugly in no time so trade carefully.
Update: SELL SELL SELL!!!
More on the post earlier Today.
HSI now has rallied beyond the point which i have marked for few weeks as the potential turning point. We may see brief distribution between 25950-26250 for couple of sessions and then move lower. I am to remain short until it breaks above 26800.
I am of a view that the rally so far this month after the passing of controversial security law is to trap the investors who were on the sidelines waiting to see how the market perceives the new law.
There is 10 weeks of distribution near 24k. If it reverses, 20k may come in no time.
Low Volume Consolidation and a break up.As updated on 16th, selloff last week from 25255 seemed uncharacteristic of a markdown. Gaps were quickly being filled and volume in the morning hour on 3 days following the top showed minimum enthusiasm from either side.
Too early to call but low volume consolidation may mean a developing triangle.
I am seeing something along the lines drawn at the chart. Keep an eye on S&P. It may coincide with S&P filling the gap from Feb or making new ATH.
If wrong, selloff should start in next couple of days. If so, refer to post "HSI Update" on Jun 13th for the anticipated path.
Regards
Bears. Wait some more.Very uncharacteristic of a mark down so far. Take profit, close half the position or move your SL to 24850 and let the market play itself out. If there is one more up move to go, it should be quick, ending with a buying climax.
HSI - A upward breakoutHang seng index has a bullish trend and real breakout of the range 22750-24850. HSI may test the supporting level 24800 at this moment and continue a upward trend.
