Harmonic Patterns
Bitcoin (BTC): Tested $92K Might Show Small Recovery / Might NotBitcoin has been wiping out a lot of liquidity from the markets where we reached one of our target zones of $92K.
Now realistically from here we should see some kind of smaller bounce maybe to $95-96K, where we then might see another rally to lower zones finally towards the major support zone.
Now this week we have to play very carefully, as there are multiple ways we can go:
- Either we push to upper zones and see rejection and move to lower zones
- Or we might see a further drop but then it won't be as low so we can expect some quick liquidity grabs on the way!
Swallow Team
Bitcoin (BTC): Called Top, Waiting For Dominance From Sellers!Bitcoin has made a nice showcase of "buy the rumour, sell the news," where after a huge expansion we had a proper drop—let's call it as it was—a big liquidity hunt.
Now that things are settling down, we are expecting to see a proper dominance from sellers near current zones of $100,000.
Upon seeing the overtake of zone, we will be looking for a further movement to lower zones.
Yes, the inauguration happened, but let's be real, most probably nothing will change within a few days or even weeks so liquidity sweeps are most common at those times!
Swallow Team
Bitcoin (BTC): Volatility Guaranteed / Expecting Liquidity HuntWell Bitcoin did a really sharp move for the start of the week, but this week is special one!
So all the mighty Trump family took some liquidity from markets, which we saw as just the beginning of what is coming.
So we are expecting to see a quick liquidity grab to upper zones upon the inauguration after what a real FOMO will kick in and bigger players might take advantage of this!!
Overall, we are going to look for a point of weakness, which then should move the price closed to 200EMA or 100EMA. A quick wick move here but if we see some proper movement to upper zones, then we might as well just keep on growing and growing until one day this bubble will explode!!
Swallow Team
USNAS100USD|A SHARPLY DECLINE AHEAD...HELLO Everyone
As previously anticipated, the price has declined, breaking the channel, and is currently attempting to cross the support level at 21,170.
We should wait for the correction to complete towards 21,380 before the downtrend resumes, aiming to break 21,170 and subsequently reach 20,730.
However, if the price reverses and stabilizes above 21,380 for any reason, a bullish trade will be activated.
GBPJPYThe chart shows the expected movement of GBPJPY. First, I anticipate the price to push up to 195.423 , as indicated by the white line. This represents a bullish move before the market reverses. Once GBPJPY reaches this resistance level, I expect the price to drop back down to the support zone at **184.50**, marked by the blue line.
The **184.50** level is a key support area where the price may react. If it reaches this level, there is a possibility of a bounce or consolidation before the next move.
XAUUSDIf gold breaks 2946, the next target will be 2963-2977. However, there is also a possibility of a fake breakout, just like it did previously. When the market reached 2946 before, it made a fake breakout and then climbed to 2949. Now, it’s possible that it could do the same again before pulling back.
At the moment, the market is trading within the 2933-2946 zone, which is a very sensitive and tricky area.
The safest trade entry would be if it properly breaks 2949-2952, as that would confirm a strong bullish setup. Remember, this is just a trade idea—it could be right or wrong. Trade cautiously!
Bitcoin Threat - Last chance is now! Or crash to 40k! (-63%)Bitcoin crashed by 12% in the past few days to 86,800, exactly to the last available support of the whole bull market! This is the last support; otherwise, the bull cycle is over, and we will have a tremendous crash to 40K in 2025/2026. So why is this the last support?
First, we need to look at the price action because bitcoin has been going sideways since November. We can clearly see an expanding triangle on the daily timeframe. Expanding triangles are very uncomfortable patterns for traders, as the whales take liquidity on both sides (buyers and sellers). And this is exactly what happened recently: Bitcoin crashed to 86.800 below the previous swing low and took all stop-loss orders from traders while remaining in the expanding triangle continuation pattern.
Bitcoin really cannot afford another crash; otherwise, the bears will break the expanding triangle, and the bull market will end. Bitcoin must go up right now! I am bullish until the end, and I still see that Bitcoin is in an uptrend. But if the price falls below 86,800, expect 40k later in 2025/2026, so this is the last chance!
What is also bullish? The price is still above the main green trendline. We want to see this trendline hold until the end of the bull market. From the Elliott Wave perspective, the price is starting last wave (5) to finish an impulse wave of higher degree. 125k is a significant resistance because of the 0.618 FIB extension. So, the threat is big for Bitcoin - 125k or 40k? Let me know in the comment section! (write 125k or 40k).
Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
DOLLARThe Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is a key inflation indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Here's how the forecasted monthly change of 0.3% (previous 0.2%) might affect the USD and broader financial markets:
Impact on USD
Higher Core PCE: If the actual figure exceeds the forecast, it could signal stronger inflationary pressures. This might lead to a stronger USD as it could prompt the Fed to consider interest rate hikes to curb inflation.
Lower Core PCE: Conversely, if the actual figure is below expectations, it might suggest easing inflationary pressures. This could lead to a weaker USD as it might reduce the likelihood of rate hikes.
Broader Market Impact
Monetary Policy Expectations: A higher-than-expected Core PCE could lead to increased expectations of tighter monetary policy, potentially boosting the USD and affecting other currencies.
Market Sentiment: The release can influence market sentiment, with higher inflation readings potentially leading to increased volatility and risk aversion.
Trade Directional Bias
Bullish for USD: If Core PCE exceeds forecasts, it might strengthen the USD against other currencies due to potential interest rate hikes.
Bearish for USD: If Core PCE is below expectations, it could weaken the USD as it might reduce the likelihood of rate hikes.
The Federal Reserve closely interprets the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index as a key measure of inflation. Here's how the Fed uses this data:
1. Inflation Targeting
Core PCE as Preferred Measure: The Fed prefers the Core PCE Price Index over other inflation measures like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it excludes volatile food and energy prices, providing a clearer view of underlying inflation trends.
Target: The Fed aims for a 2% annual inflation rate, using the Core PCE as a benchmark. If the Core PCE exceeds this target, it might prompt the Fed to consider tightening monetary policy to curb inflation
2. Monetary Policy Decisions
Interest Rate Adjustments: A higher-than-expected Core PCE figure could lead to increased expectations of interest rate hikes. This is because higher inflation suggests the economy might be growing too quickly, necessitating higher rates to slow it down and prevent overheating.
Economic Growth Assessment: The Core PCE helps the Fed assess the overall health of the economy. Stronger inflation can indicate robust economic activity, but if it exceeds the target, it might signal the need for policy adjustments to maintain economic stability
3. Market Expectations and Sentiment
Forward Guidance: The Fed uses Core PCE data to guide market expectations about future monetary policy. If the data suggests inflation is rising, the Fed might communicate a more hawkish stance, influencing market sentiment and potentially strengthening the USD.
Interpretation of Forecasted 0.3% Monthly Increase
Implications: A forecasted monthly increase of 0.3% in the Core PCE Price Index, up from 0.2%, could indicate a slight acceleration in inflation. If this increase is confirmed, it might lead to increased expectations of interest rate hikes, potentially supporting the USD
In summary, the Fed interprets the Core PCE Price Index as a critical indicator of underlying inflation trends, using it to inform monetary policy decisions and guide market expectations about future interest rates and economic conditions.
GBPUSD - Trade Plan for Today esterday, GBPUSD pulled back sharply and broke through key support levels. As I highlighted in my previous analysis, short positions were the preferred setup for those who followed.
▶️ Bullish scenario (morning setup)
This morning, a long from the 1.2570 support could make sense for a short-term bounce, with a tight stop.
▶️ Bearish scenario (main focus)
If 1.2570 fails, I will closely monitor the next key support at 1.2539. A confirmed break below would reinforce the bearish bias, making shorts the priority trade for the session.
⚠️ Overall, the broader trend remains fragile. Longs are only tactical at this stage — the primary bias remains bearish as long as GBPUSD trades below 1.2620.
XAUUSD: Keep ShortingAfter testing the level of 2860, gold has started to rise slightly. Currently, we need to pay attention to the resistance at 2890-2900. Today, we can continue to go short within this resistance area.
Today's trading strategy for gold:
xauusd sell@2890-2900
TP: 2870-2860
In just one week, the account has made a profit and increased from 40K to 150K, and is about to achieve the target of 200K. If you also need accurate signals or want to copy my trading orders, you can click on the link below the article to obtain them.