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Harmonic Patterns

Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 100.22 1st Support: 97.47 1st Resistance: 101.83 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
EURNZD Technical & Order Flow Analysis (Swing Trading)Our analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis. Based on our view, the price will rise to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you. Please support our analysis with a like or comment!
Long
by dkb14246
1
Bullish bounce off major support level?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 140.82 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Stop loss: 137.37 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 100% Fibonacci projection. Take profit: 144.77 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Could the Loonie reverse from here?USD/CAD is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3833 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Stop loss: 1.3616 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 88% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.4098 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?GBP?USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 61.6% Fibonacci projection and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3376 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Stop loss: 1.3646 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Tale profit: 1.3105 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Bearish reversal?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1524 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Stop loss: 1.1667 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 145% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 1.1201 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
TSMCTSMC’s Arizona factory is a major strategic and financial factor influencing the company’s stock and broader business outlook in 2025. Impact of TSMC’s Arizona Factory on Its Stock and Business Massive Investment and Expansion: TSMC has committed a total of about $165 billion to build and expand semiconductor fabrication plants (fabs) in Arizona, making it the largest foreign direct investment in Arizona’s history. This includes three fabs already underway or operational, plus plans for two more fabs and advanced packaging and R&D centers. Production Milestones: The first Arizona fab began high-volume production in late 2024 using 4nm process technology, achieving yields comparable to Taiwan operations. The second fab, focused on 3nm technology, is complete and its production schedule has been accelerated due to strong AI chip demand. Third and fourth fabs, targeting 2nm and even more advanced nodes like A16, are planned to start construction later in 2025, with around 30% of TSMC’s most advanced capacity expected to be in Arizona once completed. Strategic Importance: The Arizona facility aligns with U.S. government goals to onshore semiconductor manufacturing and reduce reliance on Asian supply chains amid geopolitical tensions. It positions TSMC as a key player in the U.S. semiconductor ecosystem, supporting major clients like Nvidia and AMD who have started producing chips in these fabs. This expansion supports the growing AI chip market, which is a major revenue driver for TSMC. Economic and Job Growth Effects: The Arizona investment is fueling tens of thousands of high-paying jobs in semiconductor manufacturing, construction, R&D, and supporting industries, boosting the local economy and reinforcing Arizona as a global semiconductor hub. Stock Market Reaction and Outlook: Despite the positive long-term strategic outlook, TSMC’s stock has declined over 20% in 2025, partly due to trade tensions, tariffs, and export restrictions impacting near-term growth expectations. However, the Arizona expansion is viewed as a critical long-term growth catalyst, with TSMC maintaining strong revenue growth forecasts (~mid-20% in 2025) driven by AI demand and advanced technology leadership. Accelerated production timelines in Arizona reflect TSMC’s responsiveness to market demand, which may support stock price recovery as fabs ramp up output and generate revenue. Summary Aspect Details Total U.S. Investment $165 billion (largest FDI in Arizona history) Arizona Fabs 3 fabs operational/under construction; 2 more planned (4nm, 3nm, 2nm, A16 nodes) Production Start First fab mass production since late 2024; second fab accelerated; third/fourth fabs planned Strategic Role Supports U.S. semiconductor onshoring, AI chip demand, major clients like Nvidia and AMD Economic Impact Tens of thousands of jobs; boosts Arizona’s tech ecosystem Stock Impact Near-term pressure from tariffs and trade risks; long-term growth catalyst with AI-driven demand Revenue Outlook Mid-20% revenue growth forecast for 2025, driven by advanced technology and AI chips In conclusion, TSMC’s Arizona factory is a cornerstone of its global expansion and a key driver of future growth, especially in AI-related semiconductor manufacturing. While geopolitical and trade challenges have pressured the stock recently, the Arizona investment strengthens TSMC’s technological leadership and U.S. market presence, positioning it well for sustained revenue growth and innovation leadership.
SGX:ZTSM1!
by Shavyfxhub
History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Often Rhymes – ETH = BTC 2020?On the left: BTC in 2020 before it exploded from ~$11K to $ 60 K+ On the right: ETH now, sitting on a similar macro support zone and showing a similar multi-year accumulation range. This Chart Suggests: BTC (2020) consolidated for years in a tight range between $3K and $ 12K before blasting off. ETH has now spent over two years ranging between ~ $ 1K and $3K, forming a strong base at support just like BTC did. The current ETH structure mirrors BTC's pre-bull breakout — clean support retest, fakeouts, and suppressed volatility. If ETH follows a similar path, the next parabolic expansion could be approaching. This isn't just about pattern recognition — it's about timing cycles, sentiment shifts, and institutional patience. “The best trades often feel the most uncomfortable.” While many are panicking, ETH is printing a macro setup that resembles the beginning of Bitcoin’s strongest run in history. Are you prepared if ETH goes full BTC 2020 mode?
Long
by persis10t
DOLLAR INDEXThe Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance in April 2025 is characterized by a cautious, data-dependent approach amid mixed economic signals and heightened uncertainty, particularly due to the impact of tariffs and trade tensions. Key Points on the Fed’s Monetary Policy This Month Interest Rates: The Fed has maintained the federal funds target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, holding steady without changes in April. The Committee is carefully assessing incoming data before considering any adjustments to rates. Balance Sheet Reduction: Starting in April, the Fed slowed the pace of its balance sheet runoff by reducing the monthly cap on Treasury securities redemptions from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining the cap on agency debt and mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion. This move smooths the transition from abundant reserves but does not signal a change in the overall policy stance. Economic Outlook and Risks: The economy continues to expand modestly with a solid labor market, but inflation remains somewhat elevated above the 2% target. The Fed acknowledges increased uncertainty due to tariffs, which may simultaneously slow growth and push inflation higher, creating a challenging policy environment. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the potential conflict between the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in this context. The Fed is prepared to adjust policy as appropriate, depending on how economic data evolve, but currently prefers to "stand pat" and await clearer signals on the economy’s response to tariffs and other factors. Inflation and Employment: Inflation is gradually declining but remains above target. The labor market is solid but expected to soften somewhat due to slower growth and tariff effects, with unemployment forecasted to rise modestly over the next year. Forward Guidance: The Fed’s communication emphasizes patience and data dependency, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for May 6-7, where further policy decisions will be evaluated based on new economic information. Summary Aspect Current Fed Stance (April 2025) Federal Funds Rate Held steady at 4.25%–4.50% Balance Sheet Reduction Slowed Treasury runoff to $5B/month Inflation Elevated but gradually declining Labor Market Solid but expected to soften Tariff Impact Significant uncertainty; potential stagflation risk Policy Outlook Patient, data-dependent; no immediate rate changes Next FOMC Meeting May 6-7, 2025 In essence, the Fed is maintaining a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance this month, balancing between controlling inflation and supporting employment amid trade-related uncertainties. It is closely monitoring economic data before making further moves, signaling readiness to adjust policy if risks to growth or inflation intensify.
TVC:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
BTC - Halving Cycle | Historical Patterns & 2025-2026 Projection In this chart, we dive deep into the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action post-halving and draw parallels between past and current movements, with a specific focus on how the market has historically reacted at various intervals following each halving event. This analysis incorporates both structural and temporal elements, providing a potential roadmap based on previous behavior. --- Historical Context: Previous Cycles 3rd Halving – May 11, 2020 Following the 3rd Bitcoin halving, we observed a parabolic run-up over the next several months: - 11 months after halving (April 2021): BTC reached a major peak, hitting nearly $65,000. - This was followed by a significant correction. - 19 months after halving (December 2021): Bitcoin printed a second top close to the previous all-time high, forming a classic double top pattern. This structure often signals market exhaustion and precedes deeper corrections. Cycle Completion – Price Reversion By 30 months after the 3rd halving (around November 2022), BTC had retraced much of its gains and returned to prices nearly equivalent to the halving level (~$8,000–$10,000 zone in log-adjusted terms). This marked the end of the cycle, confirming a full reversion to the mean after the double-top distribution phase. --- Current Cycle: 4th Halving – April 19, 2024 We're now entering the 4th post-halving cycle , and so far, the structure appears to be rhyming closely with the previous cycle : - Pre-halving rally took BTC to ~ FWB:73K (March 2024), indicating strong bullish momentum leading into the event. - If this cycle follows a similar path, we may expect: - A first major top around 9 months after the halving , potentially at or above $100K. - A second top forming around 17 months after the halving (projected for September 2025), possibly signaling the beginning of a broader correction phase. --- Projection: October 2026 (30 Months After Halving) Using the same temporal framework: - By October 2026 (30 months post-halving), the chart suggests a return to a much lower level , possibly around $50K. - This projection mimics the post-double-top decline of the previous cycle, reinforcing the idea of cyclical mean reversion . - It’s important to note: this isn’t necessarily bearish, but it highlights the cyclical and psychological nature of markets —boom, euphoria, distribution, and reversion. --- The Macro View: Halving Cycles Are Rhythmic - Every halving has historically set off a new bull run, but the timing of tops and bottoms is shockingly consistent : - Peaks often occur 9–18 months post-halving . - Full cycle completion is around 30 months post-halving. - These cycles are heavily influenced by supply shocks , market psychology , and macro liquidity cycles . --- Final Thoughts This chart isn’t a guarantee—it’s a probability model based on cyclical symmetry. If history repeats or rhymes, we may be witnessing another textbook cycle play out, where a euphoric run in 2025 gives way to a deep correction by late 2026. Stay alert for the double top pattern and macro divergences. Just as in 2021, timing the exit after the first peak can be the difference between profit and pain . What do you think? Will Bitcoin follow the same 30-month post-halving trajectory?
by Louigi_24
67
AUDNZD Technical & Order Flow Analysis (Day Trading)Our analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis. Based on our view, the price will rise to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you. Please support our analysis with a like or comment!
Long
by dkb14246
1