USDCHFHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on USDCHF?
USD/CHF has broken above its descending trendline and cleared a resistance zone, signaling a potential trend reversal and growing bullish momentum.
After some minor consolidation and a pullback to the breakout zone, we expect the pair to continue its rally toward the next identified targets.
The broken resistance now acts as new support, and as long as price remains above this area, the bullish outlook remains valid.
Is USD/CHF ready to extend higher toward its next targets? Share your view below! 🤔👇
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Harmonic Patterns
We might be changing the trend in the coming months!I found this indicator extremely accurate for the past tops. We are focusing on the histogram today and looking once that green candles starts growing momentum taking BTC down the hill. If this idea proves right we might be bottoming around 400 days perhaps August 2026 ~45k
AUDCAD / GBPAUD Trade Recaps 01.08.25A tester trade on AUDCAD with the reasons explained as to why this was a test position, and a short position executed on GBPAUD. Solid setup that this time around just didn't commit.
Full explanation as to why I executed on these positions and the management plan with both.
Any questions you have just drop them below 👇
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU): Huge Volatile Movement IncomingPengu coin seems to be in a pretty dangerous zone; while we are hovering near the ATH and seeing some smaller pullback prices, we are yet to see the potential huge breakout take place or breakdown happen.
We have marked 2 zones to keep an eye on; if either of those zones is broken, a huge volatile movement will happen so be careful!
As long as we are above the Sell Zone, we are going to look for more MSB areas for smaller long scalps!
Swallow Academy
Closing all my orders in profits I mentioned throughout Today's commentary session:
My strategy is still the same – i took buy from 3290-3294
Very happy with the profits so far.
My medium-term targets remain 3335-3345 which is achieved 300 pips achieved alhumdullilah.
All I say thanks to those who followed us and made profits.
[SeoVereign] BITCOIN BULLISH Outlook – August 1, 2025We are the SeoVereign Trading Team.
With sharp insight and precise analysis, we regularly share trading ideas on Bitcoin and other major assets—always guided by structure, sentiment, and momentum.
🔔 Follow us to never miss a market update.
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Hello.
This is SeoVereign.
My fundamental view on Bitcoin, as mentioned in the previous idea, is that I am anticipating an overall downward trend. In the mid- to long-term, I believe the downward pressure will gradually increase, and this is partially confirmed by various indicators and the overall market sentiment.
However, before we fully enter this downward phase, I have been judging that one more upward wave is likely to remain. I have focused my strategy on capturing this upward segment, and I have recently reached a point where I can specifically predict the development of that particular wave.
If this upward move unfolds successfully, I plan to set my take-profit range conservatively. The reason is simple: I still believe there is a high possibility that the market will shift back into a downtrend afterward. The core of this strategy is to minimize risk while realizing profits as efficiently as possible toward the tail end of the wave.
The relevant pattern and structure have been marked in detail on the chart, so please refer to it for a clearer understanding.
In summary, I view this rise as a limited rebound that could represent the last opportunity before a downturn, and I believe this idea marks the beginning of that move.
I will continue to monitor the movement and update this idea with additional evidence. Thank you.
BTC - Not the End of the DropRather the beginning. Bitcoin has fallen below this bearish intersection. Anticipating price to fall rapidly on one of these two pathways to the Uber low liquidity levels.
DXY is retesting a major bearish breakdown - this is the conduit that will justify a flash crash of this magnitude prior to a 3-5 year bull run.
Happy trading.
DOLLAR INDEXDepartments Responsible for Each Economic Report
Indicator Responsible Department/Source
Average Hourly Earnings m/m U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), part of the Department of Labor
Non-Farm Employment Change BLS (Establishment Survey)
Unemployment Rate BLS (Household Survey)
Final Manufacturing PMI S&P Global/Markit (private company)
ISM Manufacturing PMI Institute for Supply Management (ISM, private sector)
ISM Manufacturing Prices Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
Revised University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment University of Michigan (private/public university)
Construction Spending m/m U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Commerce
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations University of Michigan
How the Federal Reserve Interprets “Greater Than” or “Lower Than” Forecast
1. Average Hourly Earnings,
2.Non-Farm Payrolls,
3. Unemployment Rate
Higher than forecast (stronger labor market):
Tight labor markets (higher wages, more jobs, lower unemployment) suggest inflationary pressure.
The Fed may view this as a signal to keep rates higher for longer, as wage and job growth could fuel inflation.
Lower than forecast (weaker labor market):
Signals cooling in employment and wage growth, reducing upward pressure on inflation.
The Fed may see this as justification to consider easing policy or at least pausing further rate hikes.
2. Manufacturing PMIs (ISM, S&P)
Above 50: Signals expansion in manufacturing; below 50 indicates contraction.
Higher than forecast: Points to stronger economic momentum; the Fed may see upside risks to inflation.
Lower than forecast: Indicates weaker manufacturing activity; a possible sign of slowing demand, which could support rate cuts or dovish policy if persistent.
3. ISM Manufacturing Prices
Higher than forecast: Suggests inflationary pressures in manufacturing input costs; Fed interprets this as a reason for vigilance on inflation.
Lower than forecast: Implies easing input price pressures, supporting a dovish outlook if inflation remains subdued.
4. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations
Stronger than forecast sentiment: Consumers are more optimistic, often a sign of solid spending potential. May amplify inflation if this leads to greater demand.
Higher inflation expectations: If consumers expect higher future inflation, this can become self-fulfilling and the Fed may maintain tighter policy.
Weaker sentiment/lower inflation expectations: Reduces inflation risk, gives the Fed more flexibility to ease if needed.
5. Construction Spending
Higher than forecast: Indicates resilient investment and demand in the real economy.
Lower than forecast: Suggests cooling real estate and infrastructure spending; may support a dovish Fed outlook if sustained.
Summary Table
Data Surprises Interpretation for Fed Policy
Higher-than-forecast More hawkish; raises risk of persistent inflation
Lower-than-forecast More dovish; reduces pressure to hold rates higher
The Fed looks at the overall pattern across these data. Persistent upside surprises heighten concerns about inflation, supporting tighter policy. Downside surprises suggest cooling economic momentum and may encourage future rate cuts or pauses. The relative impact depends on which indicators surprise and the broader economic context.
#DXY #DOLLAR
Bitcoin at $110,000?After reaching its last ATH, Bitcoin practically went into a coma. Now, with the strengthening of the dollar, it's undergoing a correction — and if that correction deepens, there's a possibility it could drop to \$110,000. We'll have to see whether it finds support around the \$112,000 level or not.
Candle close above 100 after 2 months.If the Dollar Index manages to close above the 100 level today, following the important news release, there's a chance the upward move could continue toward the key 101 zone next week.
However, unless it breaks above the 101 level with strong momentum, the overall trend in the higher timeframes still remains bearish.
BTC/USDT Weekly – Bearish Rejection Brewing?Bitcoin has been riding a strong uptrend supported by a long-term ascending trendline, but recent price action is showing signs of exhaustion near the $123K–$142K supply zone.
The chart suggests a potential deviation above resistance, marked by a fakeout wick and aggressive rejection (highlighted with red blast icon). If price fails to reclaim and hold above $123K, the structure risks breaking down below trendline support — opening the door to a larger correction.
🔹 Key Resistance Zone: $123,260–$142,134
🔹 Critical Trendline Support: Recently broken — watch for retest/failure
🔹 Bearish Confirmation: Clean break & lower high formation under $109K
🔹 Next Major Demand Zone: $75K–$85K region
This setup leans bearish unless bulls can reclaim the upper blue range and re-establish control. If not, we could be looking at a significant macro retest of previous breakout levels.
#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSDT #CryptoChart #TrendReversal #BearishScenario
$PNUT TO 2.5$ THIS RALLY?🚨 $PNUT breakout from falling wedge confirmed ❗
Target at $0.34 is done for a 70% move off the breakout✅
Now retesting the breakout zone: $0.21–$0.23
Breakout remains intact. Consolidation expected before the next explosive leg. 📈
Local breakout above $0.33 → reopens pathway to:
→ $0.50 → $0.68 → $1.00 → $1.33 → $2.00 → $2.50
NFP ON DECK TODAY Gold is currently holding the Range of 3275-3310.
What's possible scanarios we have?
we have NFP data on deck today, expect potential volatility.
Until the release, gold may continue to range between 3275 and 3315.
This trade is totally unexpected how can gold react on numbers.
•If the H4 & D1 chart breaks below 3270, we could see a further drop toward the 3250 zone.
• Ifthe H4 & D1 chart flips above 3310, we could see a further Upside climb the 3335 -3345 zone.
Stay alert. Key levels in play.
#XAUUSD
LINK/USDT Weekly Chart – Wave 5 in Play?Chainlink has been showing a textbook technical setup. After spending most of 2023 in a prolonged accumulation phase (highlighted in the range-bound consolidation box), price action broke out and has since been respecting a clear harmonic and Elliott Wave structure.
We’ve now likely completed waves (1) through (4), with a clean breakout from the wedge suggesting the beginning of the final 5th impulsive wave. The projected target zone for wave (5) sits between $53 and $59, aligning with key historical resistance and Fibonacci extension levels.
🔹 Support Zone: $15.14 — key structure and prior breakout level.
🔹 Mid-Level Target: $33.96 — potential resistance and consolidation area.
🔹 Final Target Area: $53.00–$59.34 — Wave 5 objective.
🔹 Stretch Target: $75.60 — if momentum exceeds expectations.
The ascending trendline from mid-2022 continues to act as dynamic support, helping guide this move. As long as the structure holds, the bullish thesis remains intact.
📈 Watching for confirmation of continuation and volume follow-through as we head into Q4.
#LINK #Chainlink #LINKUSDT #CryptoTA #ElliottWave #Harmonics #Altcoins
DXY Just Broke Through the Lock… Where’s the Market Headed Now?🌅 Good Morning, Friends!
A few days ago, I marked 98.950 as a key threshold for the DXY index. As of today, that level has officially been broken—and the bullish momentum we anticipated is now kicking in. 📈
The next target? 101.000.
That said, it’s crucial to remember: DXY is heavily influenced by fundamental data. Stay alert and keep a close eye on key economic developments—they’re essential for navigating this move.
This breakout validates the analysis I shared with you all. And it wasn’t just about charts—it was about discipline, precision, and timing.
Every single like from you is a huge boost to my motivation. Thanks from the heart—your support drives me to keep sharing these insights! 💙
USDCAD SELLUSD/CAD rallies further, approaches 1.3900 on higher levies to Canada
The US Dollar keeps marching higher, as the Canadian Dollar struggles after Trump decided to increase tariffs to Canada to 35% from the previous 25%, escalating the trading tension with one of its main trading partners. The US President justified his decision on Canada’s alleged reluctance to cooperate on curbing the traffic of fentanyl and other drugs across the US border
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
Canada’s political crisis peaked in late 2024 with a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leading to snap elections and a weakened Liberal minority government. Policy uncertainty and economic challenges dominate 2025’s outlook, raising concerns over market stability and investor confidence.
The BoC is set to continue easing interest rates through 2025, at least at a faster pace than the Fed is expected to, which could apply pressure on CAD’s already-rising rate differential.
SUPPORT 1.38444
SUPPORT 1.38039
SUPPORT 1.37621
RESISTANCE 1.38889
RESISTANCE 1.39049
Gold continues to go long in the 3280-3300 range.Gold continues to go long in the 3280-3300 range.
Today, we remain firmly bullish on a bottom in the 3280-3300 range.
On August 1st, the Federal Reserve, while keeping interest rates unchanged, acknowledged slowing economic growth, triggering a repricing of expectations for a rate cut.
This led to a rebound in gold prices, but of course, this was just a pretext for the price increase.
Recently, gold prices experienced a four-day decline (July 23-28), falling from $3431 to $3268, as progress in trade negotiations and a rebound in the US dollar dampened safe-haven demand.
Non-farm Payrolls
Here are the key takeaways:
Today's US July non-farm payrolls data (expected to increase by 110,000, compared to 147,000 previously) will determine expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
A weak reading (e.g., below 100,000) could push gold prices back towards $3,400;
A strong reading (above 150,000) would remain bearish for gold. Gold prices continue to decline, and we are long in the 3280-3300 range.
Today, we remain firmly bullish on gold bottoming in the 3280-3300 range.
On August 1st, the Federal Reserve, while keeping interest rates unchanged, acknowledged slowing economic growth, triggering a repricing of rate cut expectations in the market.
This led to a rebound in gold prices, but of course, this was just a pretext for the price increase.
Recently, gold prices experienced a four-day decline (July 23-28), falling from $3431 to $3268, as progress in trade negotiations and a rebound in the US dollar dampened safe-haven demand.
Non-farm Payroll Data
Here are the key takeaways:
Today's US July non-farm payroll data (expected to increase by 110,000, compared to 147,000 previously) will determine expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. A weak reading (e.g., below $100,000) could push gold back to $3,400.
A strong reading (above $150,000) would continue to be bearish for gold.
Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations
Key Levels:
Support:
$3,270 (100-day moving average)
$3,248 (June low);
Resistance:
$3,300 psychological level
$3,340 (21-day/50-day moving average crossover).
Trading Strategy:
Short-term:
1: If the price holds above $3,300, initiate a long position with a target of $3,330-3,350.
2: If the price falls below $3,270, a drop to $3,248 is possible.
3: Focus on the key watershed at $3,300
4: Key Point:
As long as the gold price is above $3,300, I believe it's a good time to buy the dip. Following the upward trend in gold prices is a very wise choice.
As shown in Figure 4h:
The potential for gold prices to rebound is becoming increasingly clear.
The lower edge of the wide fluctuation range is slowly stabilizing.