Harmonic Patterns
YEN BOTTOMING Look for ABC up back to 144/145The us $ yen trade should now be setup to rally But I can allow one more minor low into,786 But we should begin the final rally up into June 9 to the 16th for support in the carry trade and in SP500 into a seasonal cycle peak . As I have posted the long term chart of a massive Head n shoulder TOP in yen trade . Best of trades WAVETIMER
Nalco - Harmonic Pattern Analysis and outlookNATIONAL ALUMINIUM CO LTD: CMP- 183.84;
📉 Suggested Pattern:
- BAT harmonic pattern completion.
📊 Recent Price Action:
- Shares of National Aluminium Company Limited closed below the previous closing price.
- Formation of a Lower Low, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
📈 Forecast:
- Potential Downside Target: ₹166.
- Expected Consolidation Range: ₹150-₹160.
🔍 Key Observations:
- The bearish trend suggests a continuation of the decline in the coming days.
- Important to monitor price action and volume dynamics for further confirmation
Nalco - Harmonic Pattern Analysis and outlookNATIONAL ALUMINIUM CO LTD: CMP- 183.84;
📉 Suggested Pattern:
- BAT harmonic pattern completion.
📊 Recent Price Action:
- Shares of National Aluminium Company Limited closed below the previous closing price.
- Formation of a Lower Low, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
📈 Forecast:
- Potential Downside Target: ₹166.
- Expected Consolidation Range if 166 is breached : ₹150-₹160.
🔍 Key Observations:
- The bearish trend suggests a continuation of the decline in the coming days.
- Important to monitor price action and volume dynamics for further confirmation
Next Week’s Outlook, I hope it will be helpful to youAdditionally, the weakening U.S. dollar has provided a boost to gold prices. As the dollar declines, gold becomes more affordable for buyers using other currencies, prompting increased purchasing activity and driving prices higher. From a technical indicator perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 55.96, situated in a neutral zone. The recent rapid rally suggests a short-term correction, which may actually serve as a consolidation phase to accumulate momentum for future upward movement.
Outlook for Next Week
The gold market is likely to see notable activity next week. Initially, trading may be less active due to the U.S. Memorial Day holiday, which will result in the closure of U.S. markets for one day.
- Technical Levels to Monitor:
- Support Zone: The 3,315–3,325 area represents a key support level. If gold prices retrace to this zone, they are likely to find buying support and rebound higher.
- Resistance Zone: Near-term resistance is first observed at 3,370. A successful breakout above this level could pave the way for a challenge of the stronger resistance at 3,386.
Currently at Strong Resistance level.TREET closed at 19.53 (23-05-25)
Currently at Strong Resistance level.
However, Weekly closing above 19.50 would
be a positive sign and we may see upside
around 21 - 21.30 & then 23.
Very Important Support lies around 17.50
& then around 14.50; however that would be
a very crucial level as breaking 14.50 would
trigger more selling pressure.
USDJPYJGB and US Treasury Bond Yield Differential and Upcoming Fundamental Data .
Current Bond Yields Overview
Bond Type Yield (%) Notes
Japan 10-year JGB ~1.24% to 1.55% Yields have risen slightly amid faster inflation in Japan (CPI around 3.5% YoY in April), highest in over a month. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a low policy rate (~0.5%) but is expected to tighten further due to inflation pressures.
US 10-year Treasury ~4.5% US yields remain significantly higher, reflecting tighter Federal Reserve policy and stronger economic growth expectations.
Yield Differential
The interest rate differential between US and Japanese 10-year bonds is roughly 3.0% to 3.3% in favor of the US.
This large spread reflects divergent monetary policies: the Fed’s tightening vs. BoJ’s cautious normalization amid inflation concerns.
The differential supports USD strength versus JPY and underpins carry trade strategies borrowing JPY to invest in USD assets.
Recent Trends in JGB Yields
JGB yields, especially long-dated maturities (20-year, 30-year, 40-year), have surged to multi-decade or all-time highs (e.g., 20-year at ~2.55%, 30-year at ~3.14%, 40-year at ~3.6%) due to fiscal concerns and poor auction results.
The 10-year JGB yield rose modestly by about 0.5 basis points recently, reaching around 1.24%–1.55%.
Inflation pressures in Japan, with CPI rising faster than expected, are prompting expectations for further BoJ policy tightening this year.
Upcoming Fundamental Data and Events to Watch
Japan:
Inflation data updates (CPI and PPI) expected to confirm ongoing upward pressure on prices.
Trade data and export/import figures amid US-China trade tensions and tariff negotiations.
Bank of Japan policy meetings and statements for clues on monetary tightening pace.
G7 finance ministers’ summit discussions, including currency and fiscal policy coordination.
United States:
US Treasury auctions and debt ceiling developments influencing bond supply and yields.
Federal Reserve statements and economic data (inflation, employment) guiding interest rate expectations.
Fiscal policy updates, including government spending and debt outlook affecting bond market sentiment.
Summary
Aspect Japan (JGB) United States (Treasury)
10-Year Yield ~1.24%–1.55%, rising with inflation ~4.5%, elevated due to Fed tightening
Yield Differential (US - JP) ~3.0% to 3.3% —
Monetary Policy BoJ cautiously tightening, inflation rising Fed aggressively tightening
Market Concerns Fiscal deficits, auction demand, inflation Debt ceiling, inflation, Fed policy
Key Upcoming Data Inflation, trade, BoJ meetings, G7 summit Inflation, employment, Fed policy, auctions
Conclusion
The large yield differential between US Treasuries and JGBs reflects diverging monetary policies amid rising inflation in both countries but more aggressive tightening in the US. JGB yields have risen sharply, especially on the long end, due to inflation and fiscal concerns, but remain well below US levels. Upcoming inflation data, central bank meetings, and fiscal developments in both Japan and the US will be critical in shaping bond yield trajectories and the USD/JPY exchange rate in the near term.
Though Bullish on Monthly tf, butGLAXO Closed at 390.42 (23-05-2025)
Though Bullish on Monthly tf, but weekly bearish
divergence has started appearing.
Important Support level is around 367 - 372; but
important to Sustain 388 - 390 atleast for further upside.
Immediate Resistance is around 410 - 420
Breaking 300 will bring more selling pressure.
LISTA – Long Position IdeaThis setup is based on my Fibbo Time Levels strategy, showing a bullish signal aligned with a key time-based reversal point. Market structure and timing suggest a potential upward move.
📌 Timeframe: 15M
🎯 Target & SL: Marked on chart
⏳ Confidence: Confirmed by Fibbo timing alignment
Watch for follow-through as price reacts to the cycle.
Binance Coin (BNB): Seeing Signs of Weakness | Ideal Short ZoneBinance Coin is still hovering near our ideal zone of rejection.
We are waiting for more confirmations, but the longer we see struggle near this zone and failed attempts at upward moves, the more confident we are getting in a possible move that is coming here soon.
If all plays out well and we see a proper MSB form on a smaller timeframe, we will be looking for the movement to lower zones and entry for the trade as well.
Swallow Academy
Bitcoin on Bollinger Band touch the Bottom?📝 Bitcoin is currently testing the baseline of the Bollinger Bands, which historically indicates that the sideways phase is nearing its end.
📉 Volatility is stabilizing, and the market structure is tightening—this often precedes a significant new move.
💡 The next big trend is on the horizon. Will it be an explosive breakout or a controlled rally like in 2021? I'm leaning more toward gradual growth, what do you think?
Cosmos (ATOM): Possible Break of Structure FormingCosmos coin is seeing a surge in buy volume where buyers have overtaken the zone at EMAs and now we are 1 step away from a light upward movement, which would fill the bullish CME gap at the upper resistance zone.
As soon as we see a proper break of structure, we will be looking for a buying entry there!
Swallow Academy
Next Week’s Outlook:Recent Market Dynamics: Key Influences on Gold Prices
1.Rising Fed Rate Cut Expectations:Growing market expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts have weakened the USD’s appeal, enhancing gold’s attractiveness as a store of value. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, driving inflows into bullion and ETFs.
2.U.S. Fiscal Deficit Concerns:Persistent unresolved U.S. fiscal deficits have fueled investor unease, prompting increased hedging demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Historical data shows a positive correlation between rising fiscal risks and gold’s risk premium.
3.USD Index Rebound:A recent rebound in the DXY index (e.g., from 101.5 to 103.0) has created short-term headwinds for gold, as a stronger dollar typically pressures dollar-denominated commodities. This has introduced technical resistance against the metal’s upward momentum.
4.Conflicting Market Forces:The tug-of-war between dovish monetary policy expectations (bullish for gold) and USD strength (bearish) has created a complex trading environment, with price action increasingly driven by near-term data and geopolitical headlines.
Next Week’s Outlook:
Trading Strategy Recommendations:
- Short Positions: Consider entering on price rebounds to the $3,365–$3,370 resistance zone, with a stop loss above $3,380 and profit targets at $3,320–$3,300.
- Long Positions: Look to initiate on pullbacks to the $3,245–$3,250 support zone, with a stop loss below $3,230 and profit targets at $3,290–$3,310.
Next Week’s Outlook, I hope it will be helpful to youRecent Oil Price Trends and Outlook
The recent trend of oil prices has been volatile. On the supply side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are discussing further production increases in July. If actual production is increased, the supply of crude oil in the market will rise, naturally putting downward pressure on prices. There has already been news that OPEC+ began gradually increasing supplies in May and June. If subsequent production increase plans continue to advance, concerns about supply surpluses will intensify.
Forecast for Next Week’s Market
Expectations of OPEC+ production increases and weak U.S. demand are likely to continue influencing the market next week. If OPEC+ confirms further production increases at its June 1 meeting, oil prices will (most likely) continue to face downward pressure next week. However, if unexpected situations arise—such as sudden geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil production and transportation—oil prices may also rise volatility. Based on current conditions, it is more likely that oil prices will maintain a (range-bound downward) pattern next week. Key resistance levels to watch are 63.0–63.5, and support levels are 60.5–60.0
BTC - LOOSING STEAM BTC HAS BROKEN 2 TREND CHANNELS, RED , YELLOW. AND BADLY DAMAGED THE PRIMARY, BLUE.
Its taking out support after support on 1st touch.
If BTC penetrates again thru blue, BTC will begin a larger correction.
BTC must stop falling at $105,600 - $105,000.
The downside target is not yet defined.
Make it Break it Situation!FCCL Closed at 46 (25-03-2025)
Bearish Divergence is there.
Important to Sustain 45.80 at least
on Weekly basis for upside move.
Otherwise, Important Support levels seems
to be around 43.30 - 43.50 & then 41.30 - 41.50.
41.30 - 41.50 is also a Channel bottom that can
be respected.
Upside move can be up to 49 -50 initially &
Channel top is around 52.
Though still in Uptrend, but BNL Closed at 37.39 (25-03-2025)
Though still in Uptrend, but
as mentioned earlier, bearish divergence
has started appearing on bigger tf, so
cautious approach should be taken.
It may re-test 35.20 - 36.20 & bounce as this
is an important Support level.
Otherwise next Support seems to be around
32.30 - 32.50
Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to youHey everyone! Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been rising all the way, even breaking through $110,000 to reach a new all-time high. This is mainly due to the influx of a large amount of long-term capital, coupled with progress in U.S. stablecoin legislation, which has reassured the market and boosted confidence in Bitcoin investments. Additionally, the number of liquid Bitcoin in the market has decreased—with fewer units available and more buyers, prices naturally rise.
Short-Term Trading Strategy:
- Entry Point: Keep an eye on price fluctuations for short-term trades. When a minor pullback occurs, it presents a good buying opportunity. Consider going long when the price retracts to the $107,000–$107,500 zone.
- Support Level: The downside support is at $106,000.
- Profit Targets:
- First Target: Take profits at $110,000. Upon reaching this level, consider partially closing positions to lock in profits while holding the remaining (positions) for potential further upside.
Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
BTCUSDTsell@107000~107500
SL: 106000
TP1:110000