Gold H4 | Falling toward a pullback supportGold (XAU/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 3,239.50 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 3,190.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 3,348.70 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Harmonic Patterns
US100 H4 | Bearish Fall Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 19,514.93, which is ana swing high resistance.
Our take profit will be at 19363.72, a pullback support.
The stop loss will be placed at 19,637.23, above the 127.2% Fibo extension.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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USDJPY H4 I Bullish Rise Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just bounced off our buy entry at 142.09, which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 50% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 144.01, which is an overlap resistance level.
The stop loss will be placed at 140.89, which is a pullback support level.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Gold fluctuates and the trend is bearish!The rise and fall of gold is not based on technical aspects, but more on fundamentals and big data, as well as the impact of tariffs. Without these influences, we are bearish this week. If the decline of the big C wave continues, the target will be 3230. 3165 is the Fibonacci 61.8 position of the callback and also the previous high point, which is easy to form a rebound. Gold focuses on two major suppressions, one is the hourly suppression around 3300, and the other is 3315 and 3328, both of which are opportunities for air forces. In terms of the short-term operation of gold, it is recommended to short on rebounds and long on callbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3298-3300 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3265-3260 support.
Gold 3260-3370 life and death tug of war!Spot gold prices remained weak during the European trading session, with prices approaching the key support area of $3,265-3,260. Signs of easing global trade relations and a small rebound in the US dollar have put pressure on gold prices. In addition, the decline in gold consumption in some economies in the first quarter of 2025 has also become another factor suppressing precious metals. Current market sentiment is in a cautious wait-and-see state. On the one hand, signs of easing global trade relations have triggered the withdrawal of some safe-haven funds; on the other hand, the persistence of geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are still supporting the bullish position of gold. The market is highly sensitive to the upcoming US economic data, especially GDP and non-farm payrolls, which may become a key trigger for gold price movements in the short term.
MEGA MEGA MEGAPHONE - Insane Upside for Solana SOLUSD SOLUSDTMassive Megaphone setup identified.
Testing double resistance zone...if pass:
Target $420-800, in fast and short lived spike.
Target $1300-1500, in slow and steady...
Looks like either $2T Injection or/and Rate Cuts priced in and about to be announced.
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AUDCHFCurrent Monetary Policy Stance
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% in February 2025, marking the first cut since 2020.
The RBA paused further easing in April, maintaining the rate at 4.10% and adopting a cautious, data-dependent approach.
The RBA’s policy remains restrictive, but with inflation easing and private demand sluggish, further gradual rate cuts are anticipated through 2025.
Switzerland (SNB):
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% in March 2025, responding to increased downside risks to inflation.
Swiss inflation remains the lowest among G10 economies, forecast at 0.6% for 2025.
The SNB is expected to keep rates at 0.25% until at least 2026, with a low risk of returning to negative rates.
Interest Rate Differential
As of April 2025, the interest rate differential between Australia and Switzerland stands at 3.85 percentage points (Australia 4.10% minus Switzerland 0.25%).
This significant positive differential typically supports the Australian dollar, as higher yields attract capital inflows into AUD-denominated assets.
Impact on AUD/CHF Exchange Rate
Higher Australian rates relative to Switzerland generally favor AUD appreciation versus CHF, as investors seek higher returns.
However, the Swiss franc’s status as a safe-haven currency can counteract this effect during periods of global uncertainty, attracting flows into CHF regardless of the rate gap.
The RBA’s gradual easing bias and the SNB’s low, stable rates suggest the differential may narrow slightly if Australia continues to cut rates, but the gap is expected to remain wide through 2025.
Summary Table
Central Bank Policy Rate (Apr 2025) Policy Direction Inflation Outlook
RBA 4.10% Gradual easing expected Easing, within target
SNB 0.25% On hold, dovish Very low, stable
Conclusion
The monetary policy differential between Australia and Switzerland is currently wide, with Australia maintaining much higher rates than Switzerland. This supports the AUD/CHF exchange rate, but the effect is moderated by the Swiss franc’s safe-haven appeal and global risk sentiment. Future moves by the RBA to cut rates may narrow the differential, but the gap is likely to remain significant in 2025.
Bullish continuation?UK100 has reacted off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 8,462.50
2st Support: 8,326.30
1st Resistance: 8,626.49
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop for the Kiwi?The price is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 0.5938
1st Support: 0.5828
1st Resistance: 0.6028
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?The Swissie (USD/CHF) is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.8211
1st Support: 0.8114
1st Resistance: 0.8372
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?EUR/USD has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.14245
1st Support: 1.1146
1st Resistance: 1.1569
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
CADJPY Technical & Order Flow Analysis (Swing Trading)Our analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis.
Based on our view, the price will rise to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you.
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BTC/USDT Rejection at Key Resistance –Bearish Outlook Towards70kBitcoin is showing signs of rejection at the strong resistance zone near $97,000 on the daily timeframe. Despite recent bullish momentum, price action is failing to break above the previously established supply zone, indicating a potential reversal.
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 97,224
• Support 1: 94,521
• Support 2: 88,305
• Support 3: 80,466
• Final Target: 70,465
Analysis:
BTC/USD tested the 97K resistance zone but failed to break through, forming a potential double-top pattern. This rejection could lead to a deeper correction, especially if price breaks below 94.5K and 88K in the coming days. The downside target is around the 70K support level, aligning with historical demand.
Bias: Bearish
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Confirmation Needed:
• Daily candle close below 94,500
• Increased volume on selling
• No bullish engulfing reversal near support zones
Risk Management:
Stop-loss above 97,500. Consider partial take-profit levels at 88,300 and 80,400.
Bitcoin struggles to clear key $95,000 levelAt the moment, a strong neutral sentiment has taken hold in Bitcoin’s price action, with an average fluctuation of just over 1% in the last four trading sessions. Indecision persists as BTC struggles to break through the $95,000 barrier, especially as the U.S. dollar has begun to regain strength—limiting the continuation of steady bullish momentum. Additionally, the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the neutral zone, suggesting that the market is showing uncertainty regarding confidence in cryptocurrencies.
Uptrend in focus:
Since April 10 of this year, a new short-term bullish trend has been forming in Bitcoin’s movements. Although recent selling corrections have not been strong enough to break the upward structure, it is important to note that a prolonged period of neutrality could put the current bullish formation at risk in upcoming sessions.
RSI:
The RSI line continues to oscillate near the overbought zone marked by the 70 level. As it approaches this threshold, it could signal a potential imbalance in buying pressure and may lead to short-term bearish corrections.
ADX:
The ADX line remains slightly above the 20 level, indicating that the average volatility of the last 14 periods is still low. This suggests that recent price movements lack strong directional momentum.
Key Levels:
$95,000: A short-term resistance level aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A breakout above this zone could reinforce a stronger bullish bias and open the door for a more significant buying trend.
$100,000: A distant resistance level at a major psychological threshold. If price action pushes toward this level, it could signal the beginning of a long-term trend and a potential move toward all-time highs.
$90,000: A key support level, corresponding to the most important neutral zone tested in recent weeks. A break below this level could invalidate the current bullish formation and shift momentum in favor of sellers.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst