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The Ultimate Algorand (ALGO) Analysis - Bottom $0.1618On the 22nd June 2019, Algorand opened at a price of around $3.28 on Coinbase, and slightly higher on Binance. Over the next few months, it dropped to around $0.1648 (maybe $0.1618 on some exchanges) and then $0.097 at the Covid crisis. Before the 2021 bull run, in November, ALGO's Support level was around $0.2247 (Point X of the harmonic) before it began its ascend. In early February of 2021, ALGO topped around $1.8427 (Point A of the harmonic) This increase is by an exact amount of $1.618, the main number in the Fibonacci sequence. Coincidence? I don't think so. After it dropped to Point B of the harmonic, around $0.67, which is a very strong Support/Resistance level. Notice the number - 0.67 is exactly 2/3 of 100. If I multiply 0.6667 by 0.6667 I get 0.44444. 0.6667 - 0.44444 = 0.223, the EXACT NUMBER of Algorand's Support level before the bullrun. OK, now this is getting crazy. Algorand then increased by 161.8% (A-B) to create Point C (around 2.5589). It then dropped to around $1.5144 - the 0.444 support level (which I have marked "S"). (Remember that 0.4444 number from earlier? Yeah.....) The price was then manipulated up to around $2.99-$3. This manipulation point is a whole new conversation involved with even more complex numbers and I think its best we avoid this in this argument, since it doesn't affect this current idea. ANYWAY, if we ignore the manipulation which we usually do in these circumstances and create Point C as our harmonic level, we can see that BC is a +1.618% of AB. Now if we draw a fib between ZERO and A we get 0.618 which is at point B OR if we draw a fib between $0.223 (Start of 2021 bull run) and $1.84 ish (Point A), we get the retracement value around 0.707 which is half of the value of 1.414, and 1.414 is the square root of 2. So AB is (XA x half of the square root of 2) and the next move entails a 1.618 move of that figure. Crazy maths... Anyway, In a standard AB=CD HARMONIC PATTERN, we have 3 different variations, AB=CD, AB=CDx1.272 or AB=CDx1.618. The most common one is 1.272, which is the square root of 1.618. Now what happens if we measure BC x 1.272? The answer is a price of ALGO of $0.1618. As soon as I saw that it hit me. That's the bottom. $0.1618, the Fibonacci golden number will likely be the bottom of Algorand in this cycle. So what is the profit target? So I checked a few measurements. I tried CD x 1.618 (if we hypothetically say that $0.1618 is the bottom of Algorand this cycle) and that gave me a figure of around $4.03. I also did (All Time High minus All Time Low) x 1.272 (the square root of 1.618) and that gave me a similar figure of around $4.03. OH ALSO, one last thing... Algorand is currently in a Bear Flag, the target is around $0.223-0.226 to Buy the bounce. It will go lower around Christmas time, but if you look at the 1.414 level (square root of 2) of the Bear Flag, it also reaches the same point around $0.1618!
by reiiss7
6
📊 Harmonic Patterns Cheat SheetHarmonic Patterns use the identification of quantified chart price action structures that have specific and consecutive Fibonacci ratio alignments that form the visual structures. Harmonic patterns calculate the Fibonacci levels of the price patterns to identify high probability reversal points on the charts. This method believes that harmonic patterns or cycles repeat on charts in cycles repeatedly. The key to using this strategy is to identify these patterns and to use them for creating good risk/reward ratio entries and to exit when a profit target is reached. Positions are taken based upon the odds that the same historic patterns will repeat after entry. 🔹 Butterfly The structure of the Butterfly pattern requires a specific alignment of Fibonacci measurements at each point within the structure. Most important, a mandatory 0.786 retracement of the XA leg as the B point is the defining element of an Ideal Butterfly Pattern and it acts as the primary measuring point to define a specific Potential Reversal Zone. In many ways, the Ideal Butterfly Pattern is like the Gartley Pattern because it requires a specific B point retracement and possesses a tighter array of Fibonacci ratios within the structure. Specifically, the Butterfly incorporates a 1.27 XA projection with a “tame” BC projection, which is usually only a 1.618. In addition, the Butterfly usually possesses an equivalent AB=CD pattern or an alternate 1.27AB=CD pattern. Although the equivalent AB=CD is a minimum requirement, valid Butterfly structures rarely exceed the alternate 1.27 AB=CD completion point. 🔹 Shark The Shark Pattern is dependent upon the powerful 88.6% retracement and the 113% Reciprocal Ratio, works extremely well retesting prior support/resistance points (0.886/1.13) as a strong counter-trend reaction. Represents a temporary extreme structure that seeks to capitalize on the extended nature of the Extreme Harmonic Impulse Wave. Demands immediate change in price action character immediately following pattern completion. Extreme Harmonic Impulse Wave utilized depends upon location of 88.6% level – these are minimum requirements. Requires an active management strategy to capture high probability profit segments. 🔹 Gartley The important features of the Gartley are the specific location of the various points: X,A,B,C and D. The X-A leg is the largest price move in the pattern. It is followed by a counter move of A to B. The first leg, A to B, sets up the potential AB=CD, which is crucial to the completion of the pattern and to the indication of the reversal zone. After a brief and smaller B to C retracement, the C to D leg is established. A precise calculation of the AB=CD will provide a significant potential reversal point. Ideal Gartley The ideal Gartley set-up will be defined by specific Fibonacci retracements. One of the most important numbers in the pattern is the completion of point D at the 0.786 of XA. Although the price action might exceed this number slightly, it should not exceed point X. The pattern is a nice set-up, especially with the convergence of an AB=CD. 🔹 Bat The Bat pattern is probably the most accurate pattern in the entire Harmonic Trading arsenal. The pattern possesses many distinct elements that define an excellent Potential Reversal Zone. The pattern typically represents a deep retest of support or resistance that can frequently be quite sharp. Quick reversals from Bat pattern PRZs are quite common. In fact, valid reversals from Bat patterns frequently possess price action that is quite extreme. The pattern incorporates the powerful 0.886XA retracement, as the defining element in the Potential Reversal Zone. The B point retracement must be less than a 0.618, preferably a 0.50 or 0.382 of the XA leg. The most ideal B point alignment is the 50% retracement of the XA leg. The B point is one of the primary ways to differentiate a Bat from a Gartley pattern. If a pattern is forming and the B point aligns at a 0.50 of the XA leg, it is likely to be a Bat. 🔹 Three Drive The three drives pattern consists of a series of higher highs or higher lows. It is similar to the ABCD pattern. The difference is that a Three drives pattern is made of 5 legs, while an ABCD pattern has only 4. Three-Drives is a reversal pattern, so it signals an upcoming change in a trend. Point A is at the 61.8% retracement of the drive 1. Point B is at the 61.8% retracement of the drive 2. Drive 2 is at the 127.2%-161.8% extension of A. Drive 3 is at the 127.2%-161.8% extension of B. You can enter the market when you are sure that the market has formed the point B (buy in a bearish Three-Drive and sell in a bullish Three Drive). Take Profit should be around the 127.2%-161.8% extension of B. 🔹 Cypher The Cypher pattern, which can be either bullish or bearish, has five points (X, A, B, C, and D) and four legs (XA, AB, BC, and CD). Like any other harmonic pattern, the theory behind the Cypher chart pattern is that there is a strong correlation between Fibonacci ratios and price movements. Eventually, the market is expected to reverse from point D after the four market swing wave movements – X to A, A to B, B to C, and C to D. B point retracement of the primary XA leg ranges between 38.2% to 61.8% Fibonacci levels. C point is an extension leg with a Fibonacci ratio that should be between 127.2% to 141.4% of the primary XA leg. D point should break the 78.6 retracement level of XC. 🔹 AB=CD In this pattern, the A to B leg is the first price move. After a brief retracement from point B to point C, the pattern will complete the C to D leg, which is the same length as AB. Simply, after the AB and BC legs have been established, you project the AB length from point C… Although the price action will not always be exactly equivalent, the AB=CD legs usually will be close enough to determine the reversal points. Sometimes, this pattern will be exact but I usually wait for the CD leg to at least equal the AB leg. The Fibonacci numbers in the pattern must occur at specific points. In an ideal AB=CD Pattern, the C point must retrace to either a 38.2% at a minimum to validate the structure. The maximum retracement of the AB leg is an 88.6% level that defines a less extreme AB=CD pattern formation but still valid. 🔹 Crab The Crab is a distinct 5-point extension structure that utilizes a 1.618 projection of the XA leg exclusively. This is the most critical aspect of the pattern and the defining level in the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). The extreme (2.618, 3.14, 3.618) projection of the BC compliments the 1.618 XA extension. In addition, the Crab primarily utilizes an alternate AB=CD to compliment the PRZ. Although a minimum AB=CD completion is necessary for a valid structure, the alternate 1.27 or 1.618 calculation are the most frequent cases. The 1.618 AB=CD pattern is the most common alternate calculation utilized in the structure. It is important to note that the alternate AB=CD pattern within the Crab is the least important number in the PRZ. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
6
$BTC BitcoinBTC Price Live Data The live Bitcoin price today is $20,731.01 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $29,721,602,588 USD. We update our BTC to USD price in real-time. Bitcoin is down 0.91% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #1, with a live market cap of $399,332,928,479 USD. It has a circulating supply of 19,262,593 BTC coins and a max. supply of 21,000,000 BTC coins. What Is Bitcoin (BTC)? Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency originally described in a 2008 whitepaper by a person, or group of people, using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. It was launched soon after, in January 2009. Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer online currency, meaning that all transactions happen directly between equal, independent network participants, without the need for any intermediary to permit or facilitate them. Bitcoin was created, according to Nakamoto’s own words, to allow “online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.” Some concepts for a similar type of a decentralized electronic currency precede BTC, but Bitcoin holds the distinction of being the first-ever cryptocurrency to come into actual use. Who Are the Founders of Bitcoin? Bitcoin’s original inventor is known under a pseudonym, Satoshi Nakamoto. As of 2021, the true identity of the person — or organization — that is behind the alias remains unknown. On October 31, 2008, Nakamoto published Bitcoin’s whitepaper, which described in detail how a peer-to-peer, online currency could be implemented. They proposed to use a decentralized ledger of transactions packaged in batches (called “blocks”) and secured by cryptographic algorithms — the whole system would later be dubbed “blockchain.” Just two months later, on January 3, 2009, Nakamoto mined the first block on the Bitcoin network, known as the genesis block, thus launching the world’s first cryptocurrency. Bitcoin price was $0 when first introduced, and most Bitcoins were obtained via mining, which only required moderately powerful devices (e.g. PCs) and mining software. The first known Bitcoin commercial transaction occurred on May 22, 2010, when programmer Laszlo Hanyecz traded 10,000 Bitcoins for two pizzas. At Bitcoin price today in mid-September 2021, those pizzas would be worth an astonishing $478 million. This event is now known as “Bitcoin Pizza Day.” In July 2010, Bitcoin first started trading, with the Bitcoin price ranging from $0.0008 to $0.08 at that time. However, while Nakamoto was the original inventor of Bitcoin, as well as the author of its very first implementation, he handed the network alert key and control of the code repository to Gavin Andresen, who later became lead developer at the Bitcoin Foundation. Over the years a large number of people have contributed to improving the cryptocurrency’s software by patching vulnerabilities and adding new features. Bitcoin’s source code repository on GitHub lists more than 750 contributors, with some of the key ones being Wladimir J. van der Laan, Marco Falke, Pieter Wuille, Gavin Andresen, Jonas Schnelli and others. What Makes Bitcoin Unique? Bitcoin’s most unique advantage comes from the fact that it was the very first cryptocurrency to appear on the market. It has managed to create a global community and give birth to an entirely new industry of millions of enthusiasts who create, invest in, trade and use Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in their everyday lives. The emergence of the first cryptocurrency has created a conceptual and technological basis that subsequently inspired the development of thousands of competing projects. The entire cryptocurrency market — now worth more than $2 trillion — is based on the idea realized by Bitcoin: money that can be sent and received by anyone, anywhere in the world without reliance on trusted intermediaries, such as banks and financial services companies. Thanks to its pioneering nature, BTC remains at the top of this energetic market after over a decade of existence. Even after Bitcoin has lost its undisputed dominance, it remains the largest cryptocurrency, with a market capitalization that surpassed the $1 trillion mark in 2021, after Bitcoin price hit an all-time high of $64,863.10 on April 14, 2021. This is owing in large part to growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, and the ubiquitousness of platforms that provide use-cases for BTC: wallets, exchanges, payment services, online games and more.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
SUNTECK REALTYHello and welcome to this analysis In the monthly time frame it formed a Bearish Harmonic ABCD in JAN 2022 near 590 and since then has retraced 62% of its last leg. In the weekly time frame it has formed a Bullish Harmonic Gartley around 315 suggesting the correction is most likely over. It can be a good stock to accumulate between 330-370 for upside levels of 420-500-650. The view would be considered invalid below 285. Good risk reward set up for medium to long term at the current level. Happy Investing
NSE:SUNTECKLong
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
Economic logWith the New Year here with the Fed fighting aggressively to battle inflation i know there are a lot of rumors floating around the FED either lowering, maintaining, or increasing the FFR (federal funds rate). none of this matters in my opinion. why? price goes up and buyers slow down. Because, the FED jacked up interest rates so fast that they did not allow the markets to adjust. it seems as is the fed noticed that the inflation was indeed not "Transitory". anyone who believed the idea of transitory inflation is honestly quite foolish. something as absurd as "transitory inflation" is lip service for "give us a second to decide what to do". And "do" they did. As traders we do not care whether its political, all we care about is "the Set-up" there are a few fundamentals that lead me to believe this could potentially be a solid set-up. 1. during 2020 the FED lowered interest rates and here in the states there was a huge surge in demand for housing. So, homeowners bought houses at super low interest rates around the 3's. prior homeowners refinanced their homes at lower interest rates. Around the same percentage. Commercial Real Estate Investors bought RE during this time thinking the good times were going to continue to roll and when the bridge money is complete the inexperienced RE investors probably did not account for the massively higher interest rates on their Exit Caps when they ran their due diligence. So whats going to happen is now that the FED has made money way more expensive it has locked these investors and the sorry souls that invested with the guys in with the property. they will not be able to offload the property, because they will have to take a loss on the property because the cap rate went up and the buyer will not be able to afford the asking price at the 6-7% interest that is currently at in Jan of 2023. Nor will a lending institution lend Grade A money on grade B or C property. 2. Banks are in major trouble. the lending institutions that made riskier loans are about find out where their weak links are located. if borrowers did not lock their interest rates down the borrower and the lender are about to be at odds. This goes for people who took out a home equity line of credit out on their primary residence to buy some thing stupid like an expensive car, boat, girlfriend whatever. typically HELOCs are floating rates (not always) but most of the time. Banks are businesses and make their profit on the spread. Just like your market makers in trading. So the spread is the difference between the interest rate the bank has with the federal reserve and the interest rate you the consumer are willing to pay for the loan. example: if the FFR is 6% then the bank is going to charge you (typically around 2% over the FFR) 8% on a mortgage, car loan, whatever loan product. if you lock your interest rate down at 8 % you're good, but if not you're in trouble. Why? 3. Going back to the business part and the mortgage part. all the buyers and refi-ers that locked down at 3% are staying where they are at. the mentality is "why pay more for the same amount of house or the same house" So new home loans and refinances (the banks cash cow) are drying up. So how does a business survive the drought? they take their floating loans and shoot the rate sky high. to make up for the loss volume of new loans. Commercial Loans, HELOCs, HEILs, Refinances. The potential problem with this is the borrower accounted for the interest at the stated rate of lets say 3-5 percent. 3 percent everything is good, 5 percent the family is eating butterless toast. Well the contract states the bank can charge you up to (example) 20% on the loan after a seasoning period. on a 30 year 100k$ loan thats $20,000 dollars. so now the loan is 120k$ and the loan payment went from 286$ to 341$ naturally a 20% increase on your payments. Now I know alot of people are excited about mortgage rates coming down, but im not sure this is a good thing. i havent seen the paper on these loan products but im guessing one of two things A) these are floating ARMs (adjustable rate Mortgages) B) the banks are getting desperate for business. the FED doesnt control mortgages (YET) its up to the individual banks that borrow from the fed. The fed charges them the borrowing bank the FFR its up to the borrowing bank to decide what to do with cost they can either eat it and absorb the cost or they pass it on to the consumer. so when i hear mortgage rates being 6% or 7% which is near the current FFR its telling me the banks are trying to drum up business. it is by no means a good thing like i keep seeing. 4. Commercial loans are the same way. instead of giving the business the loan based on the borrowers position they are based off the businesses health and business plan. and the terms are a bit different. in commercial loans you have what they call balloon payments and thats when the loan matures. the balloon is typically 5-7 years and again rates can fluctuate. But to make the payments more affordable they lock you in at a payment rate of typically 20 -25 years but could go high as 30 years and even better they're typically interest only loans. So an example of this is on a 100K loan at a 20 year payment rate at 3% with a 5 year balloon youre only paying like 12$ month to month but at the the end of 5 years you have to pay back the entire 100K$. so, that leaves the business a few options to either refinance or liquidate. Now this is not all commercial loans but the ones im familiar with are like this, so if you're holding any businesses in your paper portfolio you need to be paying super close attention to their 10Ks and 10Qs, because a lot of businesses in-cooperated either the influx of cash or lack thereof during this weird COVID time. So if you're seeing their assets drop and their debt rise or maintain or even drop it means the business is selling off its assets to meet these increasing loan demands or even worse their taking new loans to pay off old loans. 5. the fed is in charge of the employment rate as well. kind of odd or counterintuitive to be frank on the matter. but it does kind of make sense. when you look at #4 you can see where the problems start to arise. once the businesses start to liquidate their physical plants they begin to square off the excess fat to bridge the gap. so all unnecessary employees and departments begin to get cut. So when you look at the unemployment rate i think every percent is a million people. So, when you hear things like 4% or 5% unemployment its basically saying 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people are unemployed. the FED has stuck hard and fast on keeping inflation at 2% its in Powell's speeches on the FEDs website the writing is on the wall in essence. He has also been quoted to be unhappy with the employment rate and wanting higher unemployment. 6. Student loan bubble. I dont know how this is not being discussed in major outlets. But we have a major student loan bubble on our hands here in the states. the problem arises with the issue of the recession we are currently in at the moment. I whole heartedly believe that the US is in a period of Stagflation. productivity has leveled off or dropped off and prices are increasing. The problem arises (as i have said in prior posts before) is the last recession of 2008 businesses never really increased wages after that period i believe out of fear. they learned they can suppress wages and increase productivity so there is no need to increase wages if we can get more for less right? SO, we have kids leaving university with degrees and student loans with the promises of better paying jobs than their vocational trained counter parts, and the plan back fired. students are graduating university and taking jobs that are paying the same amount that a high school drop out is getting payed. (with the exception of STEM based degrees) Why? Because of wage suppression and the older work force staying in the work force longer locking up those higher paying positions due to inflation. So, these kids are forced to take lower paying jobs, live with their parents, and then 6 months later the bill is due for the loans. Im no conspiracy theorist im just a trader that uses a highly debated technique of trading, but if you just remove yourself and look at the bigger picture its clear to see that the world is moving toward a centralized economy. it will probably be a digital one that the central planners can control so they can limit the funds available to their opposition. AKA the FEDcoin. a digital dollar is a terrible idea. but thats a post for another time. long story short the pattern is a bearish butterfly. with all the fundamentals listed above with the rising interest rates i see the dollar gaining strength and in essence following this pattern and coming down over the long haul. thanks for reading my conspiracy! if youre a homeowner lock your mortage rate if you can or pay to lock the rate. even if its 1% or 2% higher than it is currently i dont see the FED slowing down until we get under 5% inflation (if the US government doesnt change the items listed in the CPI)
Short
by ARegularGuy
1