Hashrate
Bitcoin Hash Rate "Mooning" behind the scenesBitcoin Hash Rate is reaching higher levels. Although it hasn't reached ATH levels, it has almost completely recovered from the China mass-exodus (if there was any at all!). Hash rates and prices are highly correlated, and the hash ribbon has already published a green buy signal.
Opposing my own views in my last post, Bitcoin has a high probability of skyrocketing from this area. Exponential moves are difficult to predict and quantify; but good to stay ready in that scenario. Opening shorts right now are probably extremely risky moves, especially with negative funding rates that we're seeing right now.
Recommendation: Go long (non-leveraged) and forget
Ethereum ETH 2022 bullmarket prediction Essentially, I just assumed the days of bull and bear rally between each halving will be the same.
Counting from halving, 546 days of bull rally. That Nov 8, 21, I personally think its alittle short as bitcoin increase in days of bull rally after each halving. And we are extremely bullish this year.
I personally think we will top out at Janunary like the last bull market, and maybe a month after btc like the last bull market.
On this weekly chart, rsi bounced off 50.00 just like the previous bullmarket before the last fomo after Q2. So we could see something similar.
we did get a buy signal, as it seems like after each buy signal we never seen the price again
Bitcoin hash ribbon buy signalBitcoin is about to flash a buy signal tomorrow from the hash ribbons indicator. This shows miner capitulation is over and hash rate is on the rise again.
This signal does not occur often but when it does there are usually nice rallies.
I would expect Bitcoin to make one last push here this year blowing away its all time high then crashing hard near the end of the year. Near the end of the year I think the FED will get more serious about slowing asset price rises for a little while which will cause dollar priced assets to fall.
My timeframe is for the high to be made between mid October and mid December. I am looking for a high in the 240,000-280,000 range.
Dips should be bought until proven otherwise.
Resistance at 50500, 65000, 107000, 173000, 280000.
support at 41300, 37100, 35300, 31800, 29000.
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Buy SignalWeekly Hash Ribbons buy signal confirmed, price: $43,829 (CB). This would be the 12th buy signal in 9.5 years if not mistaken, after the most aggressive miner capitulation since 2021 with hash rate dropping by more than 50%. . This buy signal is the first in 8 months as well as first of 2021, since the price of $19.375 last year.
Recent buy signals :
Nov 2020: $19,375
Jul 2020: $9,303
Apr 2020: $7,706
Dec 2019: $7,384
Jan 2019: $3,514
The obvious trade. Reward/risk: 6.5:1.
Hash Ribbons indicator:
Stock to Flow Rainbow indicator:
Logarithmic growth in 2021:
Bitcoin Accumulation Zone: Buyers vs Sellers
Hash Ribbons tells us to remain patient for the buy signal as capitulation continues
MA Ribbon suggests further downside, but price is at Weekly MA support
Bullish broadening wedge in the making, not yet confirmed
Buyers vs sellers accumulation zone in yellow
Based on the January 2020 VPVR model:
Bitcoin to 8KBear Market Confirmed
Symmetrical contracting triangle on the weekly, broke out, retraced and initiated bull market,
PI Cycle top was April 11th signaling the end of bull market, this occurred during a massive ascending wedge.
Currently what I see is a massive head and shoulders on the weekly.
Combined with Metcalfe law fair value at around 8k range on the weekly.
Not financial advice always do your own research educational purposes only under the right of fair use.
China Crypto Crackdown, Hashrates DroppingMajor disruptions in the hashrate falling off the curve.
First was a major outage in Chinas Xinjiang blackouts on Apr 17 followed by huge outflows from Binance on the 18th.
twitter.com
Second massive event to hashrate is still playing out. Large miner operations are exiting China because of the ban.
twitter.com
I don't think China wants bitcoins power consumption on their grid any longer and are exiting in mass.
Its going to take some time to sort this out. Crypto will not be friendly until power consumption ratios are more efficient.
The price (upward /downward trend) of crypto follows its hashrate. Draw your own conclusions, to me I see crypto right now as catching falling knives.
BTCST/USD Bitcoin Standard Hashrate Token Winding Up.Hey guys and gals I wanted to give an update to my idea for BTCST/USD (first idea tagged). My first idea was that we had already broken out of the symmetrical triangle we have been in since the 1:10. After seeing how it's behaved it looks to STILL be within this pattern and I have updated the chart accordingly.
Elliot wave analysis: We are in wave 2 currently waiting to breakout of the sym. triangle. The measured move of this pattern is typically the previous high and low at initial entry of this structure. Once breakout is confirmed we can apply this measured move and confirm the beginning of wave 3. Wave three is typically 1.618 x Wave 1.
Fibonacci analysis: After wave 1 we had a beautiful bounce off the .618 fib level. This will give us a feasible target of the inverse 1.618 which is typically the wave 3 target. It just so happens that the measured move of this triangle breakout lands right on the 1.618, assuming we breakout near the apex.
Short-term: We can breakout at any time. We should know within the week. Look for some volume build up accompanied with the move.
Mid-term: After the breakout, you could set a target for the 1.618, but you could take profits at previous high and then 1.618.
Long-term: Take profits 1.618, buy in at completion of wave 4 to 1.0. Then take profits at previous wave 3 high and wave 5 high.
Hash Ribbon Buy point approaching!This extremely accurate indicator based on the $btc hashrate by Charles Edwards is about to flash the buy signal. This indicator typically flashes once a year and is already back! This marks a really profitable month to come. More info on this indicator + check out the TrendKing bot by Charles, which is the only bot I found that actually stays level during drops! (find the link tagged in my twitter)
New Ascending Support Trendline for BTC/USDTToday Bitcoin broke its support trend line after the Bitcoin network hash rate dropped 50% from 218 EH/s to 109 EH/s due to the power outage in Xinjiang China.
According to "news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-hashrate-drops-xinjiang-blackouts-blamed-btc-price-slides/", the founding partner at Primitive Crypto, Dovey Wan said :
"Xinjiang and Sichuan combined together have well over 50% of the overall hash rate. We hope we can have more distributed hash rate in the future for resilience purposes."
The hash rate has gone back to normal now and it is yet too soon for Bitcoin to completely break out of its bullish phase, therefore we must see this as Bitcoin creating a broader ascending channel for it's bullish movement.
Call Me Crazy, But I'm Buying HereHash rates may be bottoming here.
Obviously Craig Wrights court case is something to speculate on, but the case has been pushed out until mid this year ~June unless it is once again pushed out.
If evidence doesn't show that Craig is irrefutably Satoshi (Which is most likely the case) obviously that is bearish news.
However slight this chance may be, that he is Satoshi, i am willing to take that risk.
None the less if we stay in this channel the only direction is up from here.
Good Luck And Safe Trading.
Bitcoin Price Rally To $9,600 Still Imminent
Bitcoin hash rate rises to new all-time highs amid acute price consolidation and range trading.
Max Keiser believes that fiat money is losing power and Bitcoin is the ultimate winner.
Bitcoin price remains unchanged for the second day of trading this week. The stagnation has been its cup of tea for a few weeks now. However, the hash rate parameter of the Bitcoin network continues to rise. In other words, hash rate is the level of computational power dedicated to mine Bitcoin.
As per the data released by CoinCorners’s Matt Ward, Bitcoin hash rate hit a new all-time high on Monday. The parameter rose to 147.88 exahashes per second; double the value seen over 12 months back. At the same time, it is over ten times that hash rate during Bitcoin price at $20,000.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
A higher hash rate means that the Bitcoin network is more secure. Unfortunately, the price has flattened with little to no volatility. One of the biggest evangelist for Bitcoin and also a prominent investor, Max Keiser says that a rally is likely to follow the surge in the hash rate. In a tweet published on Monday, Keiser showed his optimism saying:
Hashrate precedes price BTC. Bitcoin price – not that important – as Gold price is not that important since both BTC and Gold trade inversely with the USD. BTC hashrate increasing shows confidence in fiat money collapsing Soon, BTC will actually be drawing energy away from fiat.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $9,238 after bouncing off short term support at the 50% Fibonacci level. A weak bullish trend is building towards the resistance at $9,300. Buyers must, however, brace for more resistance at the 50 EMA ($9,260.66) and the 100 EMA ($9,256.59). The weak momentum is supported by the upward-pointing RSI. A cross above the midline would encourage bulls to increase their entries and push Bitcoin above $9,400 and pave the way for $9,600.
Bitcoin Key Intraday Levels
Spot rate: $9,234
Percentage change: -0.02%
Relative change: -2.13
Trend: Bullish
Volatility: Expanding
BTCUSD: Hash Ribbons Buy Signals 2016-2020 ExtrapolationThe buy signal (in blue) has not yet appeared on the Daily time-frame, we are however close to getting our 4th buy signal in so many years after the bullish MA crossover of the Hash Ribbons shorter & longer SMAs (30 & 60) has occurred. See recent buy signals in past 4 years as well as the returns to current June 27th closing price price of $9,010. Hard not to be feeling slightly bullish right now, pending confirmation.
Month Year: Price (+% since signal to date)
September 2016: $616 (+1,360%)
January 2019: $3,652 (+146%)
December 2019: $7,245 (+24%)
April 2020: $7,552 (+19%)
Weekly chart still pending MA crossover:
Monthly chart is still one step behind, not yet green even:
BTCUSD: Network Hash Gives 10th Buy Signal In 9 Years
Bitcoin- Fundamental analysisIn nutshells, BTC is short-term bearish and mid-term and long-term bullish
The longer the BTC price stay away from 3.4k, the less likely the 3.4k will be revisited again. Three failed attempts at 10k have signaled the short-term bearish sentiment. Low volatility and volume in the past month could be the precursor to the big price movement.
Fundamental factors-
*After the halving on May 11th, the hash rate dropped more than 40%. Two days ago, Bitcoin difficulty lvl recorded its biggest change of +15% since January 2018. There was no sharp price decline after the halving as some have predicted.
*2020 is the year in which Fed exercises unprecedented monetary stimulus. This week, Fed starts to buy privately-issued individual corporate bonds from primary broker.
*Various surveys indicate millennials' trust in BTC increase as their trust in traditional banking decline. In addition, baby boomers are slowly warming up to BTC.
*The # of Bitcoin whales, or addresses that hold at least 1,000 BTC, is reaching levels seen before the 2017 market euphoria
*According to glassnode, # of addresses holding 0.1+ coins reached an ATH of 3,069,763.000 two days ago, which indicates the robust retail demand
*Nearly 60% of total Bitcoin is dormant for at least a year, which might indicate the HODL sentiment that investors expect the BTC price to go up.
*According to the historical data, Mayer multiple indicates that investor would achieve better results by accumulating bitcoin when the ratio is below 2.4. Currently, it stands at 1.13
*Between May 2019 and May 2020, the value of Grayscale’s Bitcoin investment trust surged 76% from $1.9 billion, indicating a strong institutional demand.
Currently in choppy no trade zone. Scale in slowly between 8.5k-8.8k. Flip to shorts if price breaks down convincingly below 8k.
Bitcoin: Bullish but No Rush Hi, everyone. We are back! Sorry for the long absence. We’ve spent the past few months developing some awesome on-chain indicators, which will be released soon. :)
For BTC, we are currently at a crucial state, with many attempts at the 10k mark. All fundamentals considered, we do believe it is only a matter of time for the break to the upside. However, looking at miner behavior, we do think the consolidation would still need some time to play out. Historically, it has always been good accumulation opportunities after the weak miners’ sell off and capitulation. With only strong miners left, the miner selling pressure decreases. Recent data also shows a significant decrease in miners transferring BTC to exchange wallets after the halving, confirming the increasing miners’ short-term holding behavior.
How do miners react in large price drops / halving events?
--> Price drop / halving
--> Miner revenue decrease
--> Weak miners: sell more to maintain operational
--> Strong miners: holding and use existing cash for operational cost
--> Weak miners: not sustainable & capitulate
--> Only strong miners left (holding, not selling) --> mkt supply decrease
--> Price stabilize --> then rise
*credit to capriole_charles for the hash ribbon indicator.
Using the "Corona"-Trendline as springboard for higher highsThe falling wedge breakout was stopped by the grey-drawn triangle surrounding it. With this rejection the following is likely to happen:
BTC may come down a few hundred dollars to around 9150$ then catch support at the still reliable "Corona"-trendline.
This orange-drawn trendline is holding from march until today.
Additionally this price level aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci-retracement of the falling wedge breakout and should be turning point.
After that, hopefully powerful, bounce from 9150$, I'm expecting the break of the grey triangle to the upside around June 8.
Symmetrical trianlges like this one are tending to break by reaching 60% of the way to the apex. This would match the ratio of 40 to 67 days in length within the triangle.
Looking at the Hash Ribbons indicator, BTC should be gaining back it's power so that we might see the buying signal around these days, which would increase the likelihood of going further upwards.
BITCOIN ⚒️ Miner Capitulation Over? 🤔Did strong miners step up the hash rate?
Are the whales buying up the price?
🐋 Whales —
On Balance Volume is testing Resistance. A rejection here and price will most likely drop... but if it continues up, FOMO may kick in.
🐂 Traders —
Relative Strength Index makes a Hidden Bullish Divergence... during a Daily uptrend. This is very bullish.
⚒️ Miners —
BTC Hash Rate is above 200 Day Moving Average and a Buy Signal triggered.
⚠️ This is a tough call. Short positions are loading up at this level... but this could result in a Short Squeeze to take Bitcoin up "temporarily" higher if whales decide to flex. Personally, I'd rather be in a position with a Trailing Stop Loss than sit here on the sidelines watching this possibly moon.