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Is BTC doing final move?Welcome to my daily market update (20/05/20): I don't usually do 1h but this time decided to open it up to show the short-term trend as well... * Short-term: - There is strong resistance line (yellow) which if we touch for the 6th time, most likely will break through with a spike towards the top ascending triangle (pink) which will also be overbought on 1h - failing to get to that yellow line (Or getting rejection), will cause a very strong rejection of that area which means we most likely gonna break below the 1h cloud, and below the lower part of the triangle and correct towards the oversold 1h area around 9300 which is a good entry point as this is used as strong S/R area on a mid-term bullish trend. * Mid-term: - We have the bullish channel which I previously mentioned on last analasys - We also have bullish ascending triangle (green lines) - Breaking below that channel will turn the mid-term bullish move to bearish move, so watch for that area. * Dont forget we have CME gap to close at around 9300-9400: * Also notice that BTC Hashrate is down by 15-20% in last few days (Means the system overloaded and Fees are getting higher and higher) www.blockchain.com * Net longers are Fomoing in again vs net shorters.... this might also lead to the correction. * In overall: - that yellow line will decide if we touch the short-term upper ascending triangle, or close the CME GAP - I personally still bearish on my bigger speculation, but as usual, the best recommendation is to focus on the mid-trend which is bullish, because the trend is your friend :) - Buy the dips at important levels (Like the CME levels, and the lower part of the tunnel), until you see that the market changing its mid-term direction... and use tight SLs as we are in a very tight spot.
Long
by Hedgehog_king
1
BITCOIN ⚒️ Miner Post Halvening Drop? 🤮Confluence of indicators had a Change of Character 👍🤪👎😬 💚 In the past, when BTC Hash Rate dropped to its 200 Day Moving Average + RSI Oversold 💁 + On Balance Volume was at Support 💁 = Excellent Buying Opportunity. 🔴 Currently, BTC Hash Rate dropped to its 200 Day Moving Average... BUT RSI Overbought and rejected at Resistance 🙅 + On Balance Volume Rejected at Resistance 🙅 = Maybe this foreshadows a miner capitulation? ℹ️ On Blockchain website Hash Rate (Raw Values) = Lower Low Miners Revenue = Major Drop in Rewards How long can these miners HODL before they need to take profits? 🚨 Although, this is posted as a Short. I am not in a short position, just holding cash, waiting for the next buying opportunity!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ChartCinema
BITCOIN ⚒️ Will Miners Capitulate??? 🤮$6,000s is the break even cost of mining Bitcoin. Will miners dump? According to Hash Ribbons 30/60 Day Crossover and Hash Rate dropping below 200 Day Signal Line... this looks uncomfortable. 😬 One scenario is that miners may have stopped supporting the network to save on electricity and will just HODL their coins up to the Halvening (cost of mining after that will be $14,000s) OR, they are selling Over The Counter because they need cash... and once OTC buyers have exhausted... they may dump on exchanges soon. I dunno, just some thoughts.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ChartCinema
On Long Term Miner Capitulation Trend LineIf you're long term on cryptos this is one of the worst places to sell because it's sitting right on top of the trend line defined by historical miner capitulation. People waiting for 3k are going to be disappointed. This line also expects the support region to be at the old all time high in April 2021 which means it will probably reach and exceed the old all time high long before then. Using a parallel channel it would be reasonable to see a high of at least 40k between now and then. Continued downside on BTC is looking pretty sketchy at this point and I am strongly expecting a short covering rally to be the next major feature on the weekly chart.
Long
by mljones
200% increase in the next 255 days?It is very likely that we will see a new ATH in the next 255 days. This post is an extension of my last one, so if you haven't read my last idea take a look at it first and then come back to this one for a better understanding. We have a buy signal on the Hash Buy indicator and halving is in 137 days. I went through the charts to test the significance of the hash buy signal. I looked at every signal in the history of BTC and this is what I found: - We got 9 buy signals in total - All of them were followed by an 200% increase in price - On average it took 255.44 days for the price of BTC to increase by 200% after we got this buy signal In the following we will take a look at all the signals: As we can see it can get very messy. This are the first 4 buy signals until we reached a new ATH. The orange numbers are the number of days until BTC price increased by 200% after a Hash buy signal. Another thing that is interesting to note is that one Hash buy signal doesn't mean an instant 200% increase and there can be multiple signals until the true rally begins. This are again 4 signals until we reached the top of the last cycle. And we see again most of the time we see more sideways movement and more Hash buy signals before we start to move up. And this is now. The last signal nicely picked the bottom for BTC. Currently, we have a confirmed Hash buy signal which means we should see a 200% increase of BTC price from today. This would put us at $21,192.05 which is slightly higher than the old ATH at $19,730 This also matches up with the upcoming halving in 137 days, because BTC price usually goes parabolic after the halving.
BNC:BLXLong
by aamonkey
Miner Capitulation Recovery? Buy signal on Hash RibbonsMiner Capitulation / Hash Ribbons has signaled a buy on daily suggesting that hash rate is stabilizing. Hash ribbons flipped a few days ago and today the SMA 10 crossed over the SMA 20 which is the secondary condition for a long. Looking at a long term scope, this strategy was supposed to beat even an early buy & hold. Mostly by reducing drawdowns significantly. So I made a quick backtest to see if the number actually held up and they do. $100 invested in MC versus a buy & hold. It significantly outperformed! Realize this is not a quick in and out strategy, as you can see average trade is held for a few months. It does accomplish the goal of reducing drawdowns though (but not eliminating them). Now all we need is a time machine to play this from 2011 onwards. :) Have a kick ass & prosperous 2020 everyone!
BNC:BLXLong
by theheirophant
5
BTCUSD: Network Hash Gives 10th Buy Signal In 9 YearsThe Hash Ribbons indicator confirmed it's 10th buy signal in 9 years yesterday on the Daily chart at $7,245. Historically, this indicator has given the best opportunities for long-term investment during accumulation phases. The 3 Day chart is also signalling a buy, confirmation would arrive tomorrow with the close of the current candle. The Weekly chart however, that has been flirting with "hash recovery" this week, has been unable to maintain this MA bull-cross for now, while the Monthly remains in capitulation phase. No confluence yet on longer-term time-frames, but the Daily chart confirms enough for me. Daily chart (2011-2015): Signals (2011-2013): $4.08, December 27th 2011 (1) $5.09, May 20th 2012 (2) $6.46, June 22nd 2012 (3) $20.55, February 2nd 2013 (4) Daily chart (2015-2019) Signals (2015-2019): $234, January 28th 2015 (5) $234, May 2nd 2015 (6) $238 May 28th 2015 (7) $612, September 4th 2016 (8) $3652, January 11th 2019 (9) $7245, December 27th 2019 (10) Average of 1 buy signal per year in the past 9 years. Only 2 buy signals have now occurred in the past 2 years. 3 Day chart: Weekly chart: Signals (2011-2019): $5.28, December 26th 2011 (1) $6.35, June 18th 2012 (2) $23.80, February 4th 2013 (3) $227, January 26th 2015 (4) $231, May 25th 2015 (5) $3533, January 7th 2019 (6) Average of 1 buy signal every 18 months in the past 9 years. 1 signal has occurred in the past 3 years, another is clearly due. Monthly chart: Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low? Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate
BNC:BLXLong
by dragononcrypto
3
BTC MINERS' WIN + WIN STRATEGYBitfinex longs at ATH level and keep climbing. -What happened before at bear market 2018? (Number 1 Situation) When price at $6000 level some miners closed their mining systems because mining was not profitable enough for them. After they closed their system hash ribbons indicator warn us like " Capitulation " ( It means that, hash power that generating from all miners has decline trend.) In other words 30 SMA - 60 SMA are death crossing. Important thing here ; even miners turned off their systems BITFINEX LONGS were growing. At the same time price found bottom before as you see. I am assuming; some miners were sold as much as they can and they dumped the price while they opened long on BITFINEX. (Win + Win) First Win : They have good long position as you see price at $3100-$3500 Second Win : Some miners had to close their machines and they had relative more BTC award from mining. -What i am expect now? (Number 2 Situation) Almost same situation here as you can see. Price is dropping, BITFINEX longs are growing, Hash ribbons showing us " Capitulation " I am assuming that they are dumping price again but they are secure their BTC value at BITFINEX to opening a long. They get lower entry for long. Small miners are closing their machines because they know that its not profitable enough right now. As a conclusion ; I am thinking as a miner, i can sell as much as i can from spot exchange to dump price. And opening a lower long while this is happening. And shakeout weak miners as much as i can. Try to reduce difficulty to get more benefit. SO, its not mean that we found our bottom yet. Still lower price on the table but one more good thing as bull, After miners run out of BTC, they won't sell until halvening. And i am assuming that price will growth. Nothing here financial advice. Follow and like for more. Thanks.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGSLong
by ShinjiOsako
6
We Are Skirting on the Edges of a Bitcoin Miner CapitulationBitcoin Hash Ribbons are extremely close to a potential Miner Capitulation. Should a Capitulation occur (crossover of the ribbons), it is not the time to be buying Bitcoin. The best times to buy Bitcoin is on Hash Rate recovery, as identified by this indicator. For now, we are "still in the green", and Bitcoin's price may have already bottomed. However, until we see continued Hash Rate growth, and separation of these Ribbons, we cannot be sure. This is one of the most important indicators to be watching right now regarding Bitcoin's health… as when miners hurt, the market will hurt too.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by capriole_charles
7
Miner Confusion? An Unusual State in Hash Rate GrowthThe current plateau in Hash Rate growth is most unusual for Bitcoin. The Hash Ribbons 1 month and 2 month moving averages have never been this close - for so long - except during a capitulation event. We can measure the relative "growth" of the current month Hash Rate (HR) to the prior 2 months as: Growth = (1m HR - 2m HR)/(1m HR) In November 2019, "Growth" has been below 0.5% for over 7 days now, without a cross-over (capitulation event) occurring. However, it appears as though miners are moving cautiously, and may be struggling between two tough choices: 1) To commit more resources to Hashing (and trying to accumulate more Bitcoin) ... OR... 2) To cut back Hashing power and risk missing a major Bitcoin Bull Run. In attempt to plot some "similar" historic scenarios, I have flagged in red where "growth" was historically less than 2% for at least 1 week: OCCURRENCE: DAYS TO CAPITULATION Apr 2012: 2 Dec 2012: 2 Dec 2014: 2 Apr 2015: 21 Nov 2016: No Capitulation* Oct 2018: 5 Mar 2019: No Capitulation* May 2019: No Capitulation* Result: in 5/8 cases a capitulation occurred within 1 month. This suggests there is roughly a 60% chance of a capitulation occurring in the next month. However, this result should be taken as a GUIDE ONLY. 10 years of data, and 8 similar data points, is FAR from an exact science. We only have 10 years of Bitcoin history to work with, it is imprecise, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored. Notes: * Capitulation occurred >> 2 months away ** I excluded any occurrences within 2 months after a capitulation
BNC:BLX
by capriole_charles
11
Bitcoin - Bakkt FLOPS & Hash Rate Crash - Part 4Bitcoin Breaks Down After weeks of indecision and what appeared to be a strong argument for $10K $BTC, bear pressure finally broke through the lines and took Bitcoin down hard. The carnage on the charts wasn’t limited to $BTC, however, as all the majors ($ETH, $XRP, $EOS, $XLM) took hits in the double-digits. The surprising and impossible to predict turn of events led to the crypto market looking more like a smoldering crater than an asset class with a bright future. Currently, $BTC is trading hands a shade over $8.1k while a select few majors, like $XRP and $ETH, appear poised to recover some of their losses. Bitcoin shed nearly $2,000 in value before the market had time to blink, leading market observers to seek answers.A flash crash of this magnitude hasn’t been seen in months. Given the relative stability of crypto’s leading digital asset across recent weeks, suspecting the involvement of concomitant factors is certainly warranted. While this week’s losses appear insufferable, they’re only the third-worst of the year. What we’re implying here is that on two other occasions in 2019, Bitcoin has taken a massive beating and recovered. Let’s take a look at what contributed to the market wreck this week. Bakkt FLOPS "Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact!" There are a million ways to spin the Bakkt debut, but here is the reality. Bakkt flopped. Perhaps belly-flopped is more accurate here. What was a hotly anticipated date – Bakkt’s physically settled BTC futures debut – turned into a dud. It was kind of like finally lighting your favorite firework, watching the flame move down the fuse with indescribable excitement, then feeling speechless disappointment when the firework fails to go off. In its first 24-hours, Bakkt settled a mere 78 BTC futures which, ironically, settled October 2019 futures at below $10K. The immediate market takeaway from the hollow debut wasn’t too difficult to guess – big financial institutions aren’t all that interest in BTC. Or are they? We’re more inclined to think that the situation is a more simple than it seems. Institutions who are ready in the here and now to buy BTC can already do so using OTC exchanges. At this early stage in the crypto game, an institution willing to buy now is already adventurous and probably doesn’t need the Bakkt onramp. We’re not saying Bakkt is pointless, though. What the flop debut reveals is that even though mainstream institutions aren’t breaking down Bakkt’s door yet, they might do so down the line when BTC adoption and consciousness finds real legs. As a piece of infrastructure, Bakkt is incredibly important for crypto. The only thing is, it might be slightly ahead of its time. BTC Hash Rate Crash This is a quickly developing story that is still sans deep details, but here’s what we know! On September 23, the Bitcoin network hash rate plummeted 40% in what was one of the largest intraday hash rate drops in network history. The reasons behind the strange crash are still shrouded in mystery. A high hash rate means miner competition to validate blocks is healthy, which in turn makes the network more competitive and, thus, secure. An increasing hash rate is viewed as bullish, while the opposite is viewed as, well, bearish. Some have speculated that the hash rate crash was caused by a firmware upgrade to account for the network’s incoming difficulty increase. Jeff Brandt, a user posting to CoinTelegraph’s comments section, described his view of the situation: “The explanation is simple. The next diff increase in 2 days will push previous gen S9’s (roughly 50% of the network) below profitability. Last week an unrestricted firmware for S9’s was posted and every large farm operator is working at a feverish pace to get approximately 3 million machines updated. The new firmware has optimizations that squeeze the very last bit of efficiency out of the S9 lowering the watts/thash-sec from 96W to ~80W. Some machines can perform with no degradation to speed, while older machines must drop performance by ~30% to achieve the same results.” The Takeaway Three significant factors colluded to cloud the cryptocurrency market with a gloomy outlook. VanEck SolidX’s ETF withdrawal, a sudden hash rate crash, and Bakkt’s weak debut happened in nearly perfect unison, giving a sideways BTC the motives needed to break down. At this point, we’re watching and waiting for the carnage to slow. Technical analysis Another possibility is that we witnessed the conclusion of wave C in an ABCDE sequence. Meaning that 2 other ABC's will follow (and frustrate a lot of people) I wouldn't be surprised to see this happening in a falling wedge or something similar. Well keep you updated as this timely issue evolves. We go together Together we are stronger Share and like I am not Bearish long term. I am a Bull of Bulls. Thanks God bless you! =============================================================================== Twitter > twitter.com Telegram > t.me =============================================================================== CAUTION! DISCLAIMER Trading is risky. Here s a small explanation about why Im giving insight into my trades. Crypto is all about trust and transparency and that is what ID like to bring. Dont expect me to tell you how much crypto I actually own because thats none of your business. But I Will tell you how big my position will be in regard to my trading portfolio. Secondly and actually the main reason im doiing this, is to proof to all the HALTERS out there that you can earn money with trading crypto. Most people are skeptical about trading because they heard horror stories about people who lost all their money. Follow my journey and let me proof therm wrong. At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control. Booking some losses during trading is perfectly normal, so im not afraid to show those losses. Most traders dont give any insight in what they because they perfectly know they suck and dont have a clue what they are doing in regard to risk management. Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing. Just like every trader, Ive seen ups and downs in my journey. I started trading stocks. And you can guess what that meant for my portfolio. Yes thats right, it was almost completely wiped out. But I pressed on, learned a lot about technical analysis and here we are. I have experience in trading stocks, options, and commodities . So you can assume that I know how to deal with risks. =============================================================================== $BTC $BCH $BNB $XLM $EOS $ETH $ADA $LTC $TRX $XRP $IOTA $LINK $XTZ $BTT $XMR $NEO #altcoins #bitcointrading @btc ===============================================================================
BITMEX:XBTLong
by ferGOD
8
Stop panicking .. we have been here beforeBitcoin broke it's own years long support .. it confirmed the previous support as now being a resistance and fell more nothing new here same as 2015 "YES BUT THIS TIME .... " A certain "Fecal-Flinger" and his "Fecal-Kissers" are spreading FUD about hashrate dropping and how this will be the end of it, if you actually look at the hashrate you'll notice it kept growing during the whole of 2018 WHILE THE PRICE KEPT DROPPING. SO .... because Bitcoin is about to die .. all those miners put extra hardware to work ? Right. Big miners are pushing smaller miners out of business on purpose, that's what's going on.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Je_Buurman
Monero network hashrate just hit 1GH/s! I remember when it was at 16 Mh total. The primary evidence of ASICs would be a dramatic decrease in output from non-ASIC hardware (due to difficulty rising disproportionately with price). In the past year difficulty has increased by 13x (source: chainradar.com 1 year chart) and price has increased by 19x (source: coinmarketcap.com 1 year chart) while the block reward has decreased by 40% (source chainradar.com 1 year chart, also emission formula). Putting this together: 19 / 13 * (1-40%) = 0.87 Meaning revenue with constant hardware and power costs has dropped by 13%. Maybe significant but hardly 'dramatic'. That's probably consistent if not smaller than the rate of technological progress (better CPUs and GPUs), meaning there is no real decrease in profitability assuming regular hardware upgrades. This is frankly much ado about nothing. Hash rate of successful coins with increasing prices will always rise, and when the price rises a lot so will the hash rate.
Long
by Emperor_Penguin