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Hashribbons

Bitcoin Bollinger bands, NVT show signs of weakening priceIntroduction Bitcoin is in a very confusing time right now. There are lots of bullish sentiment happening with bitcoin but technically it is looking like the bullishness is beginning to fade and the price action is beginning to look bearish. Whether this is the first sell off or bear trap and price resumes higher in a macro trend remains to be seen. This idea will be focusing on the monthly and weekly bollinger bands and the NVT, with a couple of extra indicators. Bollinger Band Analysis Bollinger bands can be great tools at various stages of the market cycle, especially when combined with other indicators to verify support and resistance. They can also cut you deep when the bollinger bands fail as you think they may act as support and resistance. Once interesting way I have tinkered with the bollinger bands over time is to compare what is going on with the weekly and monthly when it comes to the upper and lower limits. During large upside impulses you will see the weekly upper limit completely above the monthly upper limit. Not shown here, but during these impulses ups you can even see the daily bollinger band complete outside the monthly BB at times. When that happens the times are heady but the hangover will be severe. One sign the party is over is the weekly Bollinger band has completely moved back within the monthly bollinger band. The chart below will show that happened this week. The last two times the weekly bollinger band moved into the monthly bb bitcoin was in a uptrend that ended up being a bull trap and the next move was over 50% to the lower limit of the monthly bollinger band before a serious bounce. Right now that would but us at about $24k. NVT and Hash Ribbon Analysis One thing probably not on most people's radar is the NVT, in particular because most people don't use this color coded version by aamonkey. I have been looking at this on the daily and weekly timeframes to help clear up some signals and right now the NVT is acting exactly like it did last bear market's descending triangle. After a massive sell off the NVT goes green and then price rallies and the top occurs around when the NVT goes red on the daily. This doesn't work for people looking to snipe trades but does let us know broadly what is going on. The weekly NVT trend is likewise similar and something I pointed out when Bitcoin was topping. When the NVT goes above the red limit it signals the end of a bull market and severe retracements. It is only when the NVT finally passes into the green bands that price begins its recovery and never returns to those price levels. The main weakness of this analysis is we have limited history. Many bitcoin investors look to the hash ribbon and its signals to buy and sell. Generally that is a winning strategy. With all of the analysis I have done my gut is telling me that the most recent buy signal is very similar to the buy signal right before the C19 dump. BTC is in the process of basing out when the hash ribbon signals a buy and then very short uptrend occurs then a very rapid dump. That would be a very nice trend to trade due to how quickly traders could get in the money buying the dip. It is painful for holders because the capitation signal came to late to be useful. My personal hierarchy of indicators puts the NVT over the hash ribbons, especially when comparing the weekly chart and the NVT goes above the red limit and then drops into the yellow zone. I see a very high probability that the NVT has to go to green on the weekly. If you view bitcoin for what it was designed to be, which is a trustless payment network with its own native currency , then when the network is overvalued (weekly NVT in the red) you sell the currency into strength and when the network is undervalued (NVT in the green) you look to buy the network's currency during dips. Bearish Scenarios The available history on bitcoin shows that it appears to "like" descending triangles as its topping formation. There is a lot of bearish divergence to work out as well. Since 2014 BTC has formed these descending triangle the Stochastic drops from overbought and falls to oversold and price seems to settle on the monthly Keltner channel before recovery, at least with candle bodies. A repeat seems very feasible. A double top is also possible but that hasn't been bitcoins history. A bullish scenario This has become my minority position but it is what I believe those still bullish will see if price retraces as I see it happening. Both a W and a descending triangle can have a roughly equal low and I think many traders caught in a descending triangle don't see it because the are looking for a W. Likewise, people, such as myself right now, may not see a potential W forming because they think they will be getting the triangle. People looking for a repeat of 2013 will be looking for the W. The most emotionally painful scenario we could see is a symmetrical triangle. This would bet both bulls and bears keyed up and I think would result in the most people losing the most money. Closing thoughts For a while lots of people in crypto have looked to BTC to be the bellweather of the whole market and I am beginning to think that relationship is weakening more and more. I have thrashed out a system to help me determine trends and identify potential key reversals. According to that system BTCUSD has this month to go above and hold above $50,037 to clear both the monthly and MTF VSTOP x3 VSTOP. As the MVF and VSTOP very recently flipped bearish my operating assumption is the bear market just begun. Other cryptos have not shown this weakness. I am no longer comfortable thinking that weakness in BTC will drag down the broader market, and I am not comfortable thinking that a rising altcoin tide will raise bitcoin's boat. More and more I don't think we can say bitcoin is bullish, buy the market, or bitcoin is bearish, sell the market. As I mentioned in the NVT analysis section, Bitcoin is a currency on a trustless payment network. Digital gold is branding and marketing and I think those that are buying it as digital gold, no matter how smart or wealthy they are, or how many laser eyes are posted, are buying it for the wrong reason. If you view it as currency on a trustless system then you buy the currency when the network is undervalued based on your timeframe and sell it when the network is overvalued, again based on your timeframe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
19
Bitcoin Hash Rate "Mooning" behind the scenesBitcoin Hash Rate is reaching higher levels. Although it hasn't reached ATH levels, it has almost completely recovered from the China mass-exodus (if there was any at all!). Hash rates and prices are highly correlated, and the hash ribbon has already published a green buy signal. Opposing my own views in my last post, Bitcoin has a high probability of skyrocketing from this area. Exponential moves are difficult to predict and quantify; but good to stay ready in that scenario. Opening shorts right now are probably extremely risky moves, especially with negative funding rates that we're seeing right now. Recommendation: Go long (non-leveraged) and forget
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by HinglishInvestor
Battleplan & Quickpost on the Hash Ribbon SignalThis idea is pretty straight forward. The hash ribbon traditionally have been a great indicator of when to buy, aside from what the hash ribbon means for the network. But the hash ribbon is not a sign to get silly with margin nor is it a signal that the price will not set another low. The Covid 19 dump and the bear market of 2015 show that prices can get significantly lower after an initial pop. To keep it short and sweet we can see that every time the buy signal flashed BTC was under some chartable resistance on the daily chart. Sometimes after a major smackdown but at other times after a slow burn sell off. Either way that resistance has to be beat before price really gets moving. This is a birds eye view on a quick post, but you can still zoom in and see what I am talking about. Historically the buy signal is a great accumulation signal. Which is great. I am, however, looking to see where I could put some margin on and I don't want to get churned out in the thrash nor do I want to get eaten up by fees. So I am going to be waiting with some cash on the sides for when BTC finally mounts this last trendline. Side note: Typical bull market behavior would see BTCUSD find support on the bottom of the daily keltner channel or Bollinger band. This 4 day pull back also looks like a reasonable place for price to find support if price was to remain bullish. Time will tell
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
2
Ethereum Hash Rate Ribbon Indicates Bullish OutlookThe Ethereum Hash Rate Ribbon indicator has turn green since August 9, 2021. The indicator is one of the most important and reliable indicators as a long-term buy/sell signal. Basically it means that the market low of 1700 USD after the crash in May is a macro event below which the Ethereum market will never fall again. Bitcoin also has bottomed at about $30,000 and its Hash Rate Ribbon Indicator turned bullish a few days ago.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by unbeldi
21
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Buy SignalWeekly Hash Ribbons buy signal confirmed, price: $43,829 (CB). This would be the 12th buy signal in 9.5 years if not mistaken, after the most aggressive miner capitulation since 2021 with hash rate dropping by more than 50%. . This buy signal is the first in 8 months as well as first of 2021, since the price of $19.375 last year. Recent buy signals : Nov 2020: $19,375 Jul 2020: $9,303 Apr 2020: $7,706 Dec 2019: $7,384 Jan 2019: $3,514 The obvious trade. Reward/risk: 6.5:1. Hash Ribbons indicator: Stock to Flow Rainbow indicator: Logarithmic growth in 2021:
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by dragononcrypto
1
Rare hash ribbon buy signal! Outlier or legit?So the rare blue hash ribbon buy signal just appeared. Historically, this always was a great time for long term accumulation. Every new ATH always had a new blue hash ribbon buy signal beforehand. However, while this was in the past great news to get bullish, this time it might be different. How I interpret it: Usually when mining become less profitable, miners start to turn of their rigs and lower their settings to have less power costs. The mining hashrate goes down, less efficient miners sell their saved Bitcoins and hardware to cover costs. This usually happens after a slow drawn out decline or long sideways movement. They try to stay in the game as long as possible until they eventually capitulate. Companies that can run big mining operations however know what they are doing, they can keep mining and even buy up the sold hardware. And when the price has positive momentum again, the hashrate starts to recover and we get our blue buy signal. This time however we also have to consider that the hashrate not only went down because the price went down but also because China decided to ban mining. We can see in the chart how big the hashrate drop was this time. So the question is, would the blue buy signal also appear without the China hashrate drop? That event is clearly an outlier, hard to tell what the price and hashrate would have done with out Chinas crackdown on mining. Does this means we reached the bottom already and it is only uphill from here or is this is just signaling a brief relief rally before we continue the down trend? I remain bullish until the chart tells me otherwise.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by jeremiahjones
8
Hash Ribbon Rumba - Deep Analysis on the ONLY true indicator.Ha! I kid, I kid. There is no holy grail indicator. In this post, I dive deep into the deets on the hash ribbon indicator and want to share my results. The box drawn on the chart is plotting the average resolution time. Also the percent moves are maximum moves, peak to trough and vice versa. The rest should be detailed enough. Legend: G/L = gain/loss Cap2Buy = The time between capitulation signal and the buy signal. ...d = Days. ie, 304d is 304 days. ...d* = Same as above but is up to date data and will change in the future with more data. Happy trading and feel free to ask me any questions!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by nonoiz
XRP finding support on the Hourly chartThrough all the stress inducing moves that xrp can provide, it looks like it may have been a fake out to the bottom and now support on the hourly. It would be nice to finally see this damn/cursed/bloody asset to move and catch up to its ATH from 2017 as has BTC. Especially with the BUY signal on the Hash Ribbons indicator... Cost to much grief, buyers remorse and loss of potential gains with other since '17 by holding this. Cash out on the next run if there is one, do not hodl this thing.
COINBASE:XRPUSD
by mhernik