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Head & Shoulder, Ascending broading wedge, and 4hr golden cross.On the 4 hour chart here you can see the head and shoulders so far has avoided being triggered after the 4hr candle price action rose back up above the head and shoulder neckline before 3 closes..However on the current 4hr candle, it is now dipping back below the neckline so odds are good it will eventually still break down from the current broadening ascending wedge wedge which when it comes to ascending broadening wedges 76% break out in the same direction as that leading to the pattern which in our case is downward...so currently probability favors more downside but as you can also see we just now on this candle have an official 4hr golden corss of the 50MA moving above the 200MA...such a cross is more effective when it happens on the 1 day chart but it also typically allows for some more bull momentum when it happen ons the 4 hr chart as well just not quite as effectively. Because of this golden cross I think it's very likely that zone could act as strong asupport when the price action breaks down to it and could provide enough of a bounce/rebound back upward that we get back above the head and shoulders neckline before having a chance to trigger it for more downside...becoming instead a bear trap. We could also still dip below that and instead find support at either the ascending grey trendline, or ultimately the pink eve curved trendline....we could dip to those and also rebound back up before triggering the head and shoulders....however if the head and shouldersdoes trigger its projected fall could easily break nudner the pink eve trendline....then again since that trendline is somewhat of a projected line it can be adjusted a bit...possibly even enough to account for the projected fall of a head and shoulder trendline...however I'm fairly confident based on all the previous candle body touches that have verified that trendline up until now that its trajectory is pretty close if not spot on. For now I am going short expecting a fall at least to the 50ma, but also being prepared to pull right back out if it goes down further to get in at the pink eve trendline. You choose your own path of course because this is not meant to be financial advise. Thanks for reading and best of luck! I'm only short here for the short term...and think there's still a chance to avoid this head and shoulders.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
3
bearish brkdown of bear pennant; below Head & Shoulders necklinethe bear pennant did what probability expected it to do and finally broke down...as it did it has now dipped below the neckline of the head and shoulders. There is a chance on the new 4 our candle that one of our 4 support lines can break its fall and bounce it back above the neckline of the head and shoulder before this 4 hour candle closes to prevent it from triggering but there's also good odds that we may indeed trigger the head and shoulders. A solid support rebound zone would be the 4hr 50ma...potentially even the 4hr 200ma but more likely the 50ma....I shorted but put fractional buy backs at 7777, and 7641. there's still good odds we could dip further than that...however I see that the ascending trendline is now overlapping the eve pink curved trendline to create a double reinforced support so that could be a good rebound zone as well. I'm hoping we dip to the 50ma and then proceed to be bounced back above it before the 4hr close there by avoiding triggering the head and shoulders...if the head and shoudler is triggered and validated we could potentially dip below the eve trendline on a wick before rebounding but that doesnt necessarily invalidate the trendline instead it may just need to have its angle slightly readjusted since its currently a projection angle...changing the angle slightly of the eve could maintain all the previous candle touches it has while being able to encompass wherever the drop takes us as well..anyways for now we are short at least to the 200ma and probably the 50...and possibly even down to the eve trendline as I predicted a few ideas back that we would find our way back down to it after the bull impulse subsided. Best of luck out there this is only what I'm planning to do and not meant to be taken as financial advice...goodluck and thanks for reading.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
1
Slight upward movement; Still inside bear pennant…Potential H&S?We seemed to potentially break upward for a second from what was lookign finally like just a standard bear flag....but once again after no huge impulse in volume followed the upward movement it became clear that we still hadn't ahd a breakout and lines needed to eb adjusted once again....We can now see that we are still inside an ascending triangle of a bear pennant and since we have now gone up in price action, that puts a potential head and shoulders in play....Should we dip again by having a bearish breakdown from this bear pennant it would very likely have enough bear momentum to break the neckline of this currently hypothetical head and shoulder pattern....a break of that head and shoulder neckline and thus a validation of the head and shoulder pattern would be bad news as the projected price drop target would take us under the current projected upward slope of the Eve Bottom to around the 7300s. That would not encessarily invalidate the eve it would simply mean that the upward slope may be wider than originally thought and need adjusted....but needless to say it is a much better outcome overall if the price action can find a way to break upward out of this current bear pennant. For now, I am neutral and hodling my position....but am prepared to short with a stop loss around 7830 should we break down from the current pennant. You choose your own path as this is only what I am doing and not financial advice. Thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
H&S with right anglePreviously I posted a Head and Shoulder Pattern forming at around 7.200$ BTC/USD Price. I exaggerated (got wrong) the downtrend angle. I also wasn't aware of Chinese Holidays until recently. That (to me) had a huge impact on the trading volume thursday and friday. Still Weekend worked out as expected. This is an update of the H&S pattern that I thought was forming but with a correction on the downtrend. Also I am adding a possible Short Position that I might take. Please comment if you feel my analysis is wrong and much more important: NEVER INVEST ON SOMEONE ELSE'S IDEAS! Trade safe and BTC will definetely go to 100K+ (eventualy)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by UrbnityTrades
previous bearflag finally breaks down and hits projected target.It was over 36 hours of non stop consolidation on the last bear flag, doji after doji after doji, morphing at times into a descending wedge, a diamond bottom, and threatening to be an eve shoulder of an adam and eve double bottom, but after 9 4 hour candles of consolidation, it finally returned back into a standard bear flag and broke down to the projected target almost exactly. One of the obstacles that took it so long to do so was the 23.60% fibonacci retracement line(in red) That line was tested again and again and again and just refused to submit....acting as support for hours and hours before finally caving and the flood gates opening. It has now been flipped to just as strong of a resistance line which is a very bad sign for the bulls and the chance of us returning above it before more downside is experienced. It also has now overlapped with the t line which was providing just as stubborn of resistance during the last bear flag and continues to be that level of resistance. Here I am showing the 1hr chart because I think it shows the flags slightly more clearly, but it is important to note that on the 4hr chart, we still have not established a higher low than the last low we had on back on April 1st. I find it hard to believe we would fall back down this close to that low and somehow still create a higher low so I'd say probability highly favors either a new lower low after this current bear flag that has a projected drop of $6264....or we trigger a double bottom with the low on April 1st and then finally shoot upward from there. If we achieve a lower low, the next chance for a rebound will be the psychological support of 6,000 and just under that at $5942 a chance to trigger a massive double bottom with february 6ths low. If we do dip down that low, we will need to trigger a big rebound quickly otherwise we could close under a massive head and shoulders pattern which if triggered has the potential to send us down to $3,000 or even lower which would be bad for the market and could potentially cause the entire year of 2018 to be a bear market. I'm still optimistic in a bullish 2nd quarter so I'm hoping we trigger one of these potential double bottoms...but for now I remain short and will likely limit buy most of my position back just above the psychological support of 6,000 to play it safe...and ladder in more to the position just above each significant line of support under that we might reach. You of course choose your own path though as this is not financial advice. Good luck, ad thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
3
Closed 1 4hr cndle above dscnding trngle; still inside bearflagA very positive sign to see us close a 4 hour candle above both the descending triangle and the t-line ont he 4 hour chart....we have one hour left to go on the current 4 hour candle but as you can see it's momentum turned around right inside the edge of the bear flag we've been stuck in for awhile now. Hopefully it will close above the descending triangle as well and give us a confirmation of a potential breakout...but even then we need to see lts of bull volume to go with it for the descending triangle to be valid. For now we are still stuck inside a bear flag but hopefully after closing this current 4 hur candle above the descending triangles top tan trendline that can give us enough bull momentum to bust upward out of the bear flag and follow that candle with another 4hr confirmation candle closing above the bear flag as well...that should collectively give us enough momentum to avoid the dread and shoulders and the death cross. We will ahve to wait and see so for now I remain neutral. You make your own best judgement on what you choose to do as this is not financial advice. Thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
bearflag expands ; are we looking at another descending wedge?For now I stay neutral because sure there's plenty of bearish signs in the market but there is also what appears to be another smaller fractal like descending wedge pattern forming as I have indicated here with the light tan trendlines...These patterns are pretty bullish and Haejin Lee also hypothesized after the last descending wedge that we would rise up and former a smaller fractal of that descending wedge which is kind of what it appears we are potentially doing...of course if this bear flag decides to break bearishly then the potential of triggering a massive head and shoulders that could send us to 5100-5400 is possible...but if we don't confirm a bearish break below this wedge we might instead see a nice bullish break upward to subvert the bearish head and shoulders....Head and shoulders can often be tricks for example the last descending wedge was hidden inside a fake head and shoulders....this could once again be the case....we are sitting at a pivotal moment of limbo where the side it breaks on will determine a big fall or rise. Be careful tread wisely and make good decisions...this is not financial advice. Lastly based on the recent two candles having a trendline that connects them we can expand the ebarflag and see that it likely hasnt been broken yet and is instead bigger than we had originally seen wich happens alot with flag patterns.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
4
4hr bearflag teetering on the verge of a bearish breakdown.Not looking good folks..we can see a bearflag that has been forming on the 4hr for awhile is threatening to break bearishly....you can see the projection of that drop would send us all the way under to the grey ascending trendline which bounced us back up from our biggest low of the year and hasn't been encountered for over a month since that time. It has made strong support in the past and I see no reason why it wouldn't this time around too but always consider the worst case scenario possibility of it breaking down under that as well which I think could only occur if the massive head and shoulders that MagicPoopCannon is claiming is actually actually head and shoulders...if so that could send the market as low as $54000 for a brief while.....It's also very possible that a bearish breakdown from this current 4hr bear flag could still send us all the way to the ascending grey trendline and the grey trendline bounce us back upward quick enough that we never get a chance to actually trigger or confirm the head and shoulders....I think one of these 3 outcomes will happen...bust to consider the potential of all three and have a good game plan ready...If we confirm the bearflag breakdown I will likely go short until just above the grey ascending trend line.You do you though, as this is not financial advice.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
EURUSD sentiment shift?!Ok, so quick update with the EURUSD. We can see that after February's drop we got exposure to some solid support at the 61.8% retracement from the highest high. This is mimicked by the intense price action from the smaller 38.2% - 50% within that range. They're the baby blue lines. We can see that this chart has one bull flag at the end of an even bigger flag. To trade this we would need a strong close above the smaller bull channel (grey pattern), coincided with a strong close above the bigger channel (white pattern). Aside from a bullish rally, we can actually see a head and shoulders pattern forming. If the smaller bull flag pattern were to break down and close below the neckline we would see a drop to the 1.19 area. Of course the pattern would HAVE to break through the bigger 61.8% retracement floor, followed by the 50% and 61.8%. The RSI is starting to show higher lows and the MACD has passed a bullish crossover. All in all I will be looking for a strong close above both flags, or keep the smaller one for a small position. If I start to see sentiment change, then I'll be shorting to the neckline, then below that if the HS pattern stays true.
Long
by jordvnflows
NEO :- Potential Inverse Head and Shoulder Neo seems to be in a potential inverse head and shoulder pattern and seems to be respecting it for the moment. Keep in mind that a downtrend line within the right shoulder has been drawn and this resides within the right shoulder.In order to see the right shoulder play its part that would require a breakout from the downtrend line. A potential target for the IHS is placed at 95+ levels and keep in mind a nice breakout to the upside would be possible as soon as we see the trendline on RSI breaking out. A major move could be in the offing at any moment.
Long
by Akshath1994
XMRUSD MONERO LONG!!!Inverse head and shoulders forming on the 4h time frame with a break and retest of neckline occurring. 4h also reveals the formation of a higher high On the Daily, there is bearish convergence on the RSI, signalling a trend reversal to the upside. Price on the Daily has also rejected the 61% fibonacci previously and has done so again. This is also reinforced by the lower bound of the wedge formation, creating strong support. Price is expected to test the higher bound of this wedge formation at which our TP will be set Entry:$214 TP: $320 SL:$178
BITFINEX:XMRUSDLong
by MayerFX
Ascending wedge drop target dropped to the exact length of wedgeJust wanted to show you all how the purple ascending wedge once it was broken out of dipped the exact height and angle of the wedge...so a very reliable pattern. Also wanted to note that we now have 2 4 hour candles that have closed below this head and shoulder neckline with the bulls desperately trying to lift it back up above the neckline...so far on the 1 day chart though we have yet to close below the neckline...I wouldn't consider it a definite breakout until I see 2 1 day back to abck candles close below the neckline...but with 2 closing below it on the 4 hour its definitely not a good sign. Hoping for a false breakout because if it is a valid breakout you can see by the red dotted trendline that it would take us all the way down to the red fib retracement level....which would be lower than both the grey ascending trendline which has acted as extremely strong support multiple times since last July and would take us even further down than the bottom we hit in February. So if you see today's 1 day candle close under the neckline be prepared to play the short game waiting on 1 more 1 day candle for confirmation. If the bulls can find a way to get the 1 day to close above the neckline...then there's still a slight chance for a ltitle more downside possibly finding good support at the ascending grey trendline or if it breaks below that at the same price we found februarys bottom at.....Once we find a clear bottom that is likely the time I will go fishing for extreme bargains in the alt coin market, but the way this head and shoulders is looking right now, there's a chance we could dip into the $4,000s before then. I certainly hope not but if so I intend to find a way to allow the dip to make more more btc in the process. You make your own decisions however as this once again is not financial advice. Best of luck.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
BTC hits ascending wedge drop target, flirting w/ h&s breakdownBTC has just reached the target price drop of the ascending wedge breakdown shown by the purple dashed line. WWhile it doesn't surprise me it hit this price, it does worry me, because now we are in real danger of breaking below the neckline of this current head and shoulders..we have already sent a wick below it. In order to break it we will need at least 2 closes below the neckline on the 4 hour chart. Even then its not a guarantee that its not a fake breakout but the probability and odds are then at that point greatly in favor of a successful breakout. However 2 closes on the 1 day chart under the head and shoulders neckline will indeed signal a valid head and shoulders pattern. If this happens we may possibly plummet below my grey ascending trendline and possibly dip even lower than februarys low which is a very scary thought. So these next few candles are clutch. I'm still hoping we will eventually find strong support and a huge bounce back up from either the grey ascending trendline or just under it at the same price as februarys low thereby creating a massive double bottom pattern. The latter would probably be preferable, as it would have greater potential to take the price far higher. Anyways be careful out there if you aren't already still short, and you see 2 confirmation candles below the hea and shoulder neckline it may be wise to go short at least until right above the grey ascending trendline or possibly right above it if you are fishing to trigger a limit with a wick. A more adventurous trader may try to put their limit buy back in just above the low of february. As of right now technically the inverted head and shoulders pattern is also still in play because we haven't gone below its head but I have taken it off the chart currewntly as to not muddy up things with overlapping h&s patterns.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
4