Time To Drop After Tuesday's Nice Pop?Assuming we are early into the long trip downward would put us somewhere in the early stages of Cycle wave C down, Primary wave 1 down, Intermediate wave 2 up. This would have made Intermediate wave 1 down 5 trading days long with a 120.39 point drop. Based on waves ending in C12, Intermediate wave 2 will last 1 day. There are zero other possible lengths. The quartile movements (blue levels on left) are 27.99%, 50.12%, and 56.51%. Based on waves ending in 12, strongest model agreement for length remains at 1 trading day and second strongest by a lot is 2 trading days. Quartile retracement levels (yellow lines) are at 27.99%, 42.03%, and 66.20%.
Tuesday was the first official trading day of Intermediate wave 2. This is quite possibly the only trading day of wave 2. IF wave 2 achieves a new high tomorrow, Thursday would likely not see a new high for a very long time until we drop well below 4328 again. IF a new high is achieved tomorrow it may remain at or under 4400. IF we break above 4400 tomorrow, we may still be BACK in Cycle wave B as was identified in my most recent Devil’s Advocate Analysis. IF back in, well still in B, the market is either in the final Intermediate wave 4 Minor wave B up or the early stages of Intermediate wave 5 which would likely lead to a final market top within 2 weeks.
If no new high is achieved and the market falls (likely based on all the Bank of England/Central Bank/Federal Reserve panels in Portugal) the market is in the early stages of Intermediate wave 3 down. This scenario would have seen Intermediate wave 2 last a single day and retrace 46.8% of Intermediate wave 1’s movement. Based on waves ending in C13, the quartile movement extensions of wave 1’s movement (blue levels farther on right) are 135.64%, 140.60%, and 165.83%. Most model agree on a length of 4-6 days, with secondary agreement at 7, 8, or 10 trading days long. Based on waves ending in 13, the quartile movement extensions (yellow) are 137.30%, 162.265%, and 198.02%. Models have strongest agreement on length at 5 days long, second is 1 or 4 days, third most agreement is 3 days, fourth is 7 days, fifth is 6 days, sixth is 2 or 10 days. Based on these models, the initial forecast is a possible market low late next week after the American holiday possibly below 4279 and probably not below 4240. This would equate to a drop of around 120 points in about 6 trading days. This is pretty much the same thing accomplished by Intermediate wave 1.
Let us see how this plays out beginning with movement tomorrow.
