$CLOV Bullish Wedge, Incoming Break Upwards$CLOV revering and nearing end of bullish wedge pattern. We likely see a nice breakup going into next week. Additionally, the Medicare Advantage Leadership Innovations meeting will be held on January 27, 2021 where they stated they'd announce a previously unannounced partnership. Recently updated 2021 provider lists notes the addition of Costco $COST. So this could be potentially huge news incoming as well as a great catalyst to retrace and retest previous high's.
Healthcare
ATRA growth potentialAtara Biotherapeutics , Inc. (Nasdaq: ATRA ), a pioneer in T-cell immunotherapy, leveraging its novel allogeneic EBV T- cell platform to develop transformative therapies for patients with serious diseases including solid tumors, hematologic cancers and autoimmune diseases
"Atara made significant progress in 2020 and is well-positioned for a strong 2021," said Pascal Touchon, President and Chief Executive Officer of Atara. "As the most advanced allogeneic T-cell therapy company, nearing initiation and subsequent completion of a rolling BLA for our lead product candidate tab-cel®, we are making key investments in commercial infrastructure to ensure delivery of this potentially transformative therapy to patients in dire need. Atara also anticipates significant progress throughout 2021 on ATA188 for progressive MS with multiple data read-outs and, after recent productive interactions with the FDA, is poised to expand enrollment in the RCT and conduct an interim analysis in H1 2022."
Nova Leap Health Corp (NLH)Executive Summary
Nova Leap Health is a consolidator of an extremely fragmented space of home care and home health care agencies. Nova Leap buys them at ~5x EBITDA and subsequently improves EBITDA margin. As the company scales its operations, the operating leverage would lead to margin expansion. The stock price has an upside of ~100% in 1 year.
Opportunity
1) Small Cap (50m)
2) Sell side has not discovered it yet
3) Flying under the radar
Nova presently has a $2.1m cash pile and a long term debt of $2.7m, debt was $5.3M in August with a $2.7M cash pile
Business Overview
NLH is home care and home health care services company operating in Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Nova Scotia. NLH all entered into all these markets (except for Ohio) through M&A transactions.
Home care covers such activities as:
Dementia care
Personal grooming like bathing or getting dressed
Moving around: getting in and out of the bed/shower
Medication reminders
Errands like grocery shopping and picking up prescriptions
Light housekeeping
Meal preparation
Home healthcare covers such activities as:
Skilled nursing
At-home physical therapy
Pain Management
Caring for wounds
Prescription management
Customer Value Proposition
Home care and home healthcare enables senior citizens to stay in their homes even after they cannot live completely on their own. Homecare crates a buffer from when a senior citizen needs to move to a nursing facility
COVID-19 Tailwind
Senior citizens living at nursing facilities suffered greatly from COVID-19. There were instances where a big part of a nursing home’s population got infected by COVID-19. Second, many senior citizens got locked down at nursing facilities and were not able to see family members for very extended periods of time for safety reasons. Needless to say, that was a real hardship.
Thus, I expect that both senior citizens and their families (e.g., children) would be trying to avoid or at least delay moving to a nursing facility as long as possible which would provide strong tailwinds for home care industry and Nova Leap.
M&A Strategy
1. M&A Criteria
Nova Leap has the following acquisition criteria:
1) U.S. and Canada geographic focus
2) Positive EBITDA with strong reputation/brand
3) Normally 5+ year history
4) Opportunities for operational synergies
5) $1M-$15M of Revenues
Nova Leap is going after targets that are too small for private equity players and as a result faces limited competition. The space is very fragmented, and Nova Leap has many potential acquisition targets in front of it.
M&A Playbook and Integration
Nova Leap buys home care businesses that are primarily private pay. After that Nova Leap makes incremental changes at the acquired operations.
First, Nova Leap implements price increases where it is appropriate.
Second, Nova Leap reducea overtime because overtime destroys gross profit margin.
Third, Nova Leap consolidates the back-office functions such as accounting. For example, instead of an accountant looking after one agency, such account working at Nova Leap HQ would be looking after 3 or 4 home care agencies.
Fourth, better scheduling using scheduling software.
Operating Philosophy
CEO Chris Dobbin runs Nova Leap in a very decentralized fashion. Most locations’ leaders have lots of autonomy. HQ are responsible for setting up standards and back office / accounting. Chris Dobbin spends his time heavily on M&A and overseeing the agencies’ leaders.
Unit Economics
The key operating drivers are the number of client service hours and revenue per hour. Revenue per hour has been quite stable and is ~$25.
Cost per hour has also been stable: ~$16.50 - $17.00.
Thus, the profit per hour is ~$8.50 to $9.
Four-Wall Economics and Four-Wall EBITDA
“Four-wall EBITDA” is of course a misnomer because there are no tangible walls to speak of, but the concept still applies. I want to analyze profitability of field operations first and then overlay HQ expenses on top of that. The key issue that Nova Leap is facing today is its small size of field operations vs. HQ. However, with a few more acquisitions and de minimis growth in HQ expenses (see more on this below), the operating leverage would kick in and lead to a disproportionate increase in EBITDA.
In 2019 segment EBITDA margin (e.g., before HQ costs) was 11.88%. However, in 1Q 2020 and 2Q 2020 it was 10.91% and 10.39% respectively due to the COVID-19 impact.
Revenue run-rate (ex-COVID-19) is ~$5M per quarter or ~$20M per year. With ~12% segment EBITDA margin, NLH should be able to generate ~~$2.4M of segment EBITDA. With the EV of ~$19M, the EV/Segment EBITDA is ~7.85x.
HQ Operations
The HQ team based in Halifax is small and includes CEO, CFO, controller, and business development person. This is purely corporate function.
The HQ also has 5 accountants. However, they work with field agencies.
Nova Leap wants to do 4 to 6 M&A transactions a year (there was zero during COVID-19 pandemic so 2020 number would probably be lower than this target). Doing these M&A transactions will not require hiring any more HQ personnel. However, Nova Leap would probably need to hire an accountant for every 3-4 acquisitions (maybe 5).
HQ expenses are ~$280K - $300K per quarter when there are no M&A transactions. Let’s call it $1.2M per year.
Scaling
What the numbers above is mean is that Nova Leap needs to get another $1M of EBITDA to show the strength of its operating model. That would probably require $5M of capital. I expect that it will be done with a very small dilution to existing shareholders.
Valuation and Upside Potential
As I alluded above, current headline multiple of EBITDA is not particularly attractive. However, with getting more scale and proving the model, I would not be surprised if Nova Leap trades at 12x – 14x EBIDA in 1 year could generate a 100% upside
Risks
M&A Integration
M&A integration risks are inherent for any roll up / consolidation strategy and NLH is not exception.
2. Leverage
NLH has ~$2.0M of debt which is a lot given its EBITDA today. If NLH does not grow its EBITDA, its leverage can become an issue.
Catalysts
1. Continuous M&A
2. Operating leverage showing up as the company continues to scale its operations.
OUR VIEW ON JOB GEE GROUP INC #StockanalysisIN BUSINESS SINCE 1962, FUNDAMENTALLY, THE COMPANY SEEMS SOUND, SOURCING JOBS AND PROVING STAFFING IN THE AREAS OF HEALTHCARE, COMMERCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES.
SEE MORE BELOW :
GEE Group Inc. was incorporated in the State of Illinois in 1962, is a provider of specialized staffing solutions and is the successor to employment offices doing business since 1893.
We operate in two industry segments, providing professional staffing services and solutions in the information technology, engineering, finance and accounting specialties and commercial staffing services through the names of General Employment, Access Data Consulting, Agile Resources, Ashley Ellis, Omni-One, Paladin Consulting and Triad. Additionally, the Company provides contract and direct hire professional staffing services through the following SNI brands: Accounting Now®, SNI Technology®, Legal Now®, SNI Financial®, Staffing Now®, SNI Energy®, and SNI Certes.
Also, in the healthcare sector, through our Scribe Solutions brand, staff medical scribes who assist physicians in emergency departments of hospitals and in medical practices by providing required documentation for patient care in connection with electronic medical records.
Technical
Insider Own 9.20% Shs Outstand 17.75M Perf Week 30.84%
Market Cap 24.96M Forward P/E - EPS next Y -0.51 Insider Trans -15.85% Shs Float 13.12M Perf Month 35.92%
Income 10.10M PEG - EPS next Q -0.22 Inst Own 17.50% Short Float 0.06% Perf Quarter 38.48%
Sales 129.80M P/S 0.19 EPS this Y 144.40% Inst Trans - Short Ratio 0.01 Perf Half Y 20.69%
Book/sh 1.54 P/B 0.91 EPS next Y 32.90% ROA 8.20% Target Price 1.75 Perf Year 240.36%
Cash/sh 0.79 P/C 1.77 EPS next 5Y - ROE 53.60% 52W Range 0.17 - 2.49 Perf YTD 40.63%
Dividend - P/FCF - EPS past 5Y 20.90% ROI -2.20% 52W High -47.79% Beta 2.29
Dividend % - Quick Ratio 1.70 Sales past 5Y 24.50% Gross Margin 34.40% 52W Low 675.19% ATR 0.10
Employees 258 Current Ratio 1.70 Sales Q/Q -20.30% Oper. Margin -1.10% RSI (14) 68.16 Volatility 11.88% 8.79%
Optionable No Debt/Eq 2.54 EPS Q/Q -147.00% Profit Margin 7.80% Rel Volume 3.12 Prev Close 1.40
Shortable Yes LT Debt/Eq 2.46 Earnings - Payout 0.00% Avg Volume 737.29K Price 1.30
Recom 2.00 SMA20 23.08% SMA50 26.89% SMA200 55.25% Volume 1,541,694 Change -7.14%
The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained on our Site constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by The Trading Regime Inc. or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
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AMEX:JOB
Trade Alert: GHSIThis chart lines up perfectly on 1yr and you can expand to 5yr to see where I came up with the white line markers for PT targets.
Bullish trend started early Nov.
Simple. GHSI is going up. Buy
*Please leave a like if you find this helpful, thanks*
ONEM over 44.50Nice consolidation here, candle shadows seem to show sell pressure, which should lead to a bigger breakout.
The $115+ NNOX Target + Patterns$NNOX is one of those volatile stocks that took the world by storm. If you don't like volatility, it is likely best to stay away from biotech or healthcare. That said, there are alot of expected catalysts. $NNOX have been heavily shortened, and it is in the opinion of many that lots of market manipulation has been and is going on. The short interest is low and the borrow rate is high. Currently as I see it, the pattern is still incrementally upwards. Nanox has the catalyst of factory announcements, FDA approvals for both single and multisource, plus the commencement of "device leasing". Currently with 4 catalyst, three of them that are expected to be big, a target of $115 seems reasonable. Support levels should be picking up soon, and unless one wants to flip for few cents or dollars per share as profit, this currently seems much better suited for a long term position. That said, I am long. Everything I say is on an opinion based basis. Please do your own due diligence and proceed with caution. Opinions mentioned here aren't meant to warrant solicited financial advice.
CFMS Bullish Reversal CFMS has reversed it's downtrend and is now trending upwards. higher highs, lower lows, gearing up for a breakout.
MRNA looking for support @ 109We could see a swing back to December Highs With pending FDA approval and a hot market we can see MRNA swing back to the upside. With almost double the average volume traded on December 27th and large institutional stakes in the company Moderna is set to explode in the next few weeks.
BUY $GILD - NR Picks Dec 06EN: Gilead Sciences, Inc. is an American biopharmaceutical company based in Foster City, California, that researches, develops and markets drugs in under-explored areas of medical need in the United States, Europe, and
internationally. Its products include treatments for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and liver disease.
It is currently at a key level of the last three months that could indicate a change in trend, being able to surpass its resistance of 61 - 62 and would reach the sell zone.
It should be mentioned that in recent years its dividend has increased from 2% in 2015 to 4% in 2020. December 14 is its cutoff date and it is scheduled to pay dividends on December 30.
In terms of its income structure, products related to HIV treatment represent 70% of its income, its main market being the United States.
ES: Gilead Sciences, Inc. es una compañía biofarmacéutica estadounidense con sede en Foster City, California, que investiga, desarrolla y comercializa medicamentos en áreas de necesidades médicas poco exploradas en los
Estados Unidos, Europa e internacionalmente. Sus productos incluyen tratamientos contra la infección por el virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana (VIH) y enfermedades hepáticas.
Actualmente se encuentra en un nivel clave de los últimos tres meses que podría indicar un cambio de tendencia, pudiendo sobrepasar su resistencia de los 61 – 62 y alcanzaría la zona de venta.
Cade mencionar que en los últimos años ha ido incrementado su dividendo pasando de 2% en el 2015 a un 4% en el 2020. El 14 de Diciembre es su fecha de corte y tiene programado pagar dividendos el 30 de Diciembre.
En cuanto a su estructura de ingresos los productos relacionados al tratamiento del VIH representan un 70% de sus ingresos siendo su mercado principal Estados Unidos.
FTRP equilibrium watchFTRP is currently undergoing weekly consolidation (high, low, lower high, higher low, lower high...)
As shown on the daily, the bullish engulfing candle looks great. However, there is strong resistance the top of this pennant/triangle/equilibrium whichever you name it.
We would need to see some major surge in activity pick up here for a decisive break. *Be alert of potential false breakout*
The scenario that would be ideal for bulls is one more pullback into the trading range to cool off the oscillators, before lift off. The tighter the range gets, the more explosive the move.
Note how the resistance is the .786 fib - if we pull back I prefer to play the break of horizontal resistance rather than descending angles of a triangle - this is more reliable -
the chart is showing you 3 upper wicks on daily candles at this area - sellers are distributing their stock here. In order to get on the move, the sellers must become exhausted enough to
break through their distribution level.
Taking a position on the break of the triangle at a lower level is feasible for those who want to load up more size for bigger gains - but don't lose sight of the
.786 being major resistance and plan accordingly.
An aggressive bull strategy when facing a pullback would be to play off the .618 or .5 fib levels from the swing high to low, and then add more on a clear break of the .786 to the upside (pyramiding)
There are a few ways it can play out from there (back test some supports after break, run away etc)
With this information come up with a plan for how you will handle various scenarios and where to take profits (previous high, fib extensions, measure move of the current structure)
Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice, I am not a financial advisor, do your own research. Adhere to proper risk management, position sizing, etc.
Like and share this post if you found it informative, and please comment below - tell me what you think!
NNOX: TSLA OF HEALTCARE?After successful breakout above 51, NNOX has been retracing to test the newly formed RBS.
Fundamentally, it has had a successful launch of its futuristic looking NANOx.ARC, which design can only be seen in Startrek or Starwars movies before this. This could provide major tailwind for NNOX as Xray imaging is one of the most essential diagnostic process especially during the current era of chest & lung loving virus.
Looking to enter at current level and hold forever.
DISCLAIMER: This is not an investment advice nor a buy call. This is just some analysis of based on some technical factors coupled with just a little or totally nonexistent fundamentals. This analysis is based on lagging (past) data (ie historical prices) thus any forward looking statement is just based on perceived highly probabilistic assumption(s) to assist personal trading decision.
ONEM: Potential Runner Forming A Cup and HandleInteresting setup here in ONEM. Creating the handle here with a nice risk reward skew. Could be worth a look
JNH Resumes Uptrend? Trade Setup (>100% Potential Profits)Hello Fellow Traders,
Here we are looking at Jack Nathan Medical Corp (JNH) on the TSXV. As we can see, this is a relatively new chart which rallied throughout October, reaching a high of $2.72.
The price has since corrected and formed a bullish falling wedge pattern. Additionally, following a breakout from the wedge, it has printed a double bottom in the $1.10-$1.15 range. Prices are now trading above the 10, 21, 50 EMAs on the 4H chart. We can see increasing volume, the RSI has risen above 50, and the MACD is increasing as well, all bullish signals.
Depending on how quickly this chart picks up, we could see massive growth, so I have marked some potential paths for the next bullish wave. Prices can easily move up from here. In the long term, a breakout past the high of $2.72 would allow for additional growth, with a target at the 1.618 Fib level of $3.70 (+184%). A potential trade setup now may be:
Entry: $1.20-$1.40
Targets: $2.10 (+61%) | $2.70 (+107%) | $3.70 (+183%)
Stop loss: $1.05 (-20%)
Let me know what you think down below and leave a like if you appreciate the analysis. Also, check out my profile or some of the related ideas below and be sure to follow for more chart analyses and profitable trade setups!
Price at writing: $1.30