Healthcare
Wuxi Apptec Embraces a More Health-Conscious ChinaAfter a booming year in 2018, Wuxi has yet to slow down. The following article analyzes the success of Wuxi and its shortcomings.
China has released a number of new policies to help make the biopharma industry more transparent and efficient.
By 2020, China had full coverage of medical service systems in rural and urban areas; 90% of residents in China can access the nearest medical point within 15 minutes.
Wuxi Apptec has achieved consecutive quarter-over-quarter revenue growth for 13 quarters since the first beginning of 2018 (other than the first quarter of 2020 due to Covid-19).
Wuxi PharmaTech, a contract research and manufacturing organization, was founded by Dr. Ge Li in 2000. The company changed its name to Wuxi Apptec after Wuxi acquired Apptec Laboratory Services Inc., a US-based medical device and biologics testing company. Wuxi was delisted from the NYSE after going private, with a valuation of USD 3.3 billion. The company has thrived under the leadership of Ge Li as Wuxi went from just 4 people in 2000 to over 28,000 employees in 2021. Ge Li claims that the company's main mission is to provide high-quality research services at a low cost.
Wuxi has been growing rapidly since its inception, but we expect more imminent growth as China rolls out new healthcare-related policies and people become more health-conscious. Although the thriving healthcare market will inevitably attract new entrants that may evolve into strong competitors, Wuxi Apptec is highly likely to withstand the competition.
Rising health awareness
While brands like GNC and The Vitamin Shoppe helped raise healthcare awareness in the west, China was lackluster in this department and put little emphasis on personal well-being. Over the past decade, however, China's healthcare industry grew exponentially as society's attitude towards healthcare took a massive turn. The rising disposable income has led to the paradigm shift from being reactive consumers to proactive consumers. 84% of 3,000 respondents in China, in a survey conducted by Ipsos, reported that they are consciously making health-oriented decisions now.
According to a report by McKinsey, the global wellness economy, accelerated by COVID-19, has an estimated market size of USD 1.5 trillion as of 2021 with 5% to 10% annual growth each year. China reported the highest share of wellness spending online out of the six countries, including Japan. Monosodium glutamate (MSG) is a controversial flavor-enhancing ingredient for its possible adverse effects after consuming more than 3 grams. Major MSG producer Henan Lotus is experiencing a steady decrease in sales as the Chinese population, once the largest consumer of MSG, is becoming more health-aware. Bain and Kantar Worldpanel also reported that sales of chewing gums have also decreased by 14% in the last two years, chocolate sales decreased by 6%, and confectionaries decreased by 4%.
Favorable policies
President Xi announced the initiation of the Health China 2030 (HC 2030) plan in October 2016. The main goals are to prioritize healthcare on a national level, spur innovations in the healthcare industry, promote scientific development, and bring equal access to public health services to all parts of China, especially the country's rural areas. HC 2030 also aims to establish and enhance social policies and institutional systems regarding health, cultivate a healthy environment and intensively promote the advancement of the healthcare industry. Companies in the healthcare industry have seen something of a boost in their revenue as the healthcare trend continues. By 2020, China had extended medical service coverage so thoroughly that 90% of residents could access the nearest medical point within 15 minutes. The medical cost growth was also curbed as 2020 marked the lowest proportion of residents' medical expenditure in 20 years, with 27.7%.
Government policies have favored the development of the healthcare industry in China, especially that of Contract Research Organizations (CROs) and Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations (CDMOs). In 2015, China had a backlog of over 20,000 drug registrations pending review and approval. The National People's Congress (NPC) held a meeting to discuss the reformation of the drug registration system. As a result, China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) regulators received more resources than in the past, and the government launched the Market Authorization Holder Program (MAH) to make it easier to bring new drugs to the market. Furthermore, the Review and Approve Process (RAP) was simplified and made more efficient. For example, high-quality generics for orphan conditions with robust bioequivalence data will be eligible for expedited review during the CFDA's regulatory process. As of July 2021, a rare disease database (Orphanet) has recognized over 6,000 diseases, propelling pharma companies to roll out more medicine that will undergo a newly implemented process. CROs and CDMOs benefit from these new policies as pharma companies look to increase their research output to develop and produce new drugs. The expedited RAP incentivizes companies to roll out new drugs to cope with the increasing number of orphan diseases recorded.
The unique advantage
Wuxi Apptec is a "fully integrated contract research development and manufacturing organization with the ability to provide one-stop services that offer its clients assistance in discovery, development and manufacturing service demands." The wide variety of services that Wuxi covers allows the company to embrace the soaring healthcare market in China. Wuxi Apptec expects to extend its impact further as the global new drug R&D outsourcing market snowballs. However, Wuxi must persist in its R&D investment to fare well against companies with more flexible cash flow and new entrants with newer technology.
With a boom in customer demand, China's pharmaceutical R&D and manufacturing service market is expected to maintain its current high-speed growth. Wuxi's unique competitive advantage comes from its cost-efficient services. As of 2021, Wuxi has over 28,000 employees, most of whom are chemists, making Wuxi possibly the biggest employer of chemists in the world. Since the company has cheaper labor costs than the industry average, Wuxi can produce almost the same amount of research output for a fraction of the price (around 25% to 40% less than western companies' services).
Additionally, policies such as the MAH, expedited reviews, and HC 2030 have encouraged pharmaceutical innovations in China. Wuxi can capture the rising demand from Chinese pharma companies with its rather high R&D efficiency. Although Wuxi may not have the financial strength of some significant pharma companies with in-house R&D departments, the company will retain its leading position as one of the most profitable R&D and manufacturing businesses in China.
Financial metrics
According to Wuxi's interim report this year, the company realized CNY 10.54 billion total revenue, a year-over-year growth of 45.70%. CNY 2.50 billion came from China, which represents year-over-year growth of 48%. This data showcases the company's ability to capture the rising healthcare tides and demands for research and innovations. 48% growth also marks the largest increase compared to the company's revenue growth in the US and Europe. Wuxi also has a 100% retention rate of its top 10 customers from 2015 to the interim of 2021. As of June 30, 2021, the company's new clients have contributed CNY 849 million in revenue. Frost & Sullivan published a market research report in June 2021, which ranked Wuxi Apptec first by market share in the China-based drug discovery CRO market, pre-clinical and clinical CRO market, and small molecule CDMO market.
Bottom line
The combined forces of new policies and rising healthcare awareness have put Wuxi Apptec in a prime position to consolidate its leadership in China. The company should remain profitable as long as it maintains below industry average labor cost, heavy investment in its R&D department and reasonable M&A strategies to help expand and improve Wuxi's services and operations. Given the recent regulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies, Wuxi should tread carefully in its effort to capture a more significant share in the Chinese market.
China's rapid growth in the healthcare industry bodes well for the nation, but what does it mean for its people? While the government poured resources into promoting innovations and development in the medical field, the affordability issue gained little attention. Although China has over 90% of residents with basic health insurance plans, it still poses a hefty paycheck for the average worker. Despite the rising wave of healthy living, China has to do more to provide sustainable healthcare.
For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
Medtronic & its 100smaThe chart speaks for itself. 100sma has been held and tested multiple times.
RSI has not gone below 35 RSI.
Giving it a little wiggle room makes sense to avoid getting stopped out. The ATR (average true range) is 2 points. So a stop below $127 could potentially provide enough room.
WalgreensI see a possible M pattern forming here. I'm thinking about more people being sick and pharmacy visits over the cold winter season. Walgreens is a great convenience store with solid customer service from my experience. They've been around for a long time. I want to see price retrace the previous high up to 38 - 61%. We are currently in consolidation. However, I believe that since that previous was broken and the current low being higher than the previous, I can see WBA respecting that sentiment on a long term scale. The win goes to the longest holder. On the weekly , we are on the bottom of the Mac D as well and looks to be losing its bearish momentum.
Not advice!
CI- Break out from 5 months downward trendsince 10th May peak, the stock was on bearish trend. As of 6th October is breakout the slope, went back for 1 day but break out again, confirming a trend reversal.
MA50 line is tested and rejected several time in the past 2 weeks but following fibo levels, I believe we look at a climb to 215-220 range before earnings on 4th Nov.
Earnings will define the story onwards
$MRK: Vaccine KrptoniteInvestors should continue to watch Merck and how it plays out here at the 80 level as their COVID drug treatment is pending approval. I believe the market is absolutely sleeping on the significance of this drug and the kind of impact it will have. A treatment is an absolute game changer provided the politics of COVID do not disrupt innovation, transparency and competition in the market. If Merck's drug is effective at treating COVID this will be disastrous to companies like MRNA, JNJ, DVAX, PFE and NVAX. Currently, we're still sitting at less than a 60% fully vaccinated population, the tightest labor supply in history and a work force petitioning vaccine mandates as was witnessed with Boeing workers in Seattle. This will force lawmakers hands to suspend vaccine mandates indefinitely crashing demand for vaccines in the future. The US population has made their stance and vaccine persuasion will only have a diminishing effect from here on out, so the only option is the option that works for everyone in order to minimize division in the country.
$EVH Merger with Walgreens Will Not Happen Sources SayWe all come here to notice that Walgreens is not interested in the Merger with EVH after digging into the company earnings and realizing there's a conflict of interest in proprietary technology. A Merger makes no sense any more spokesman said. "We'd like to notify private investors today to let them know that the deal doesn't seem to fit our model anymore as far as the health care management software Evolent has to offer" - Walgreens
WACC% 15.48
ROIC -3.73
Operating Margin -4.18
Net Margin -7.28
ROE -11.23
ROA -5.35
3 Year EPS NRI Growth Rate -61.20
Net Income Operations -72.27 70% Worse than 606 companies
Sloan Ratio -42.26
ROCE -4.49
1 Year Asset Growth Rate -7.30
1 Year Debt Growth Rate -21.80
1 Year OCF -881
1 Year Total Growth Rate 8.80
1 Year Revenue Rate Per Share 5.70
$ARKG - Forget Noah, Cathies ARK will keep you afloat! Prime setup for $ARKG as we hit the midway point of Bloody September, the worst month for returns. We've already seen several pullbacks, and with quad witching coming on Sept 17, we're bound to see some volatility.
I fully expect ARKG to fall a little further as the broader market bleeds, but come the quad witching hour, you'll start to see the tides shifting. Growth stocks are looking ready to launch off, and this fund which reflects not only biotech but also AI (as a lot of biotech companies stand to benefit from advancements in AI such as Googles Alpha Fold) is a prime example of the wave count that's prevalent across the board.
Here we have:
1) W2 golden zone target between 80.50-76.79 (green)
2) Leg Y of W2, A = C equal legs target also matches 78.6% retracement of W2 (arrows)
3) Leg C of Y reaching its 14.6-23.6% fib targets between 76.34-75.34 (yellow)
4) Leg Y reaching its 23.6-38.2% fib targets between 77.63-75.70 (red)
5) Large volume profile node peaking around 76.30
This ETF should be in your growth portfolio, and now is the time to get your money ready. Remember, these funds have a 5 year time horizon. Ride the wave!
Speculative Grade LongI rarely dabble in health service companies. But, after doing some reading I see a lot of merit in their mission, and this company could easily be worth 10X its current market capitalization if utilized by the Health service industry or acquired by an insurers to cut liability costs. Little can be distilled from available chart data, and comprehending the fundamentals for this sector are beyond my expertise. I am looking at this company as a speculative grade holding to diversify the portfolio a bit into the health service sector.
seekingalpha.com
seraprognostics.com
www.360dx.com
*TA interpretation + personal opinion = not investment advice
BFLY Price Target $20BFLY Current Price $12.20 Price Target $20
I like BFLY here, as it has over $500 million in cash following its merger with Longview, and I like that it is fully expected to be cash-flow positive by 2024.Revenue increased 40.0% to $16.5 million in Q2 2021 from $11.8 million in Q2 2020. The revenue can be traced to both product and subscription revenues. Product revenue increased 30.3% to $13.0 million from $10.0 million last year. That is solid. The company is focused heavily on improving subscriptions, and it is translating to sales. Subscription revenue increased 94.3% to $3.5 million from $1.8 million last year. I see this line of revenue growing sizably in the coming quarters as it becomes a bigger focus of the company. With a half of billion in cash BFLY has significant funds to continue growing their customer base with their innovative cost cutting products. Their Butterfly IQ+ is a handheld ultrasound which is cutting the cost of ultrasounds by over 90%, this opens up the opportunity for the company to expand to developing countries with this amazing cost cutting innovation.
Growing Stocks to Watch in the Chinese Market: (NFH:NYSE)● The regulatory and other uncertainties in the Chinese market directly impact sectors like fintech, gaming and education.
● Winners will be companies that have benefited from the regulatory change or captured the newly emerging opportunities.
● We are bullish on Hailiang Education, WiMi Hologram Cloud, 360 DigiTech and New Frontier Health and will explain the reasons in this article.
New Frontier Health (NFH:NYSE)
New Frontier Health, the parent company of one of Asia's largest high-end medical service providers – United Family Healthcare, offers customized healthcare services. The company includes over 600 full-time doctors from 25 countries, over 1,000 part-time specialists and over 1,000 nurses.
In early 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak affected the company's business. resulting in a lower income level at the pediatric and O.B departments that year. However, it is clear now that New Frontier is recovering from the pandemic with growing revenue, narrowing net losses and upping EBITDA, while it has been dropping operating expenses. It is proven that the overall operational efficiency and profitability have been improved.
In February of 2021, the buying party of New Frontier made a privatization offer to buy back all the common stocks at USD 12 per share, to delist the company from the NYSE. The next step will be the IPO on the Hong Kong bourse.
Aging China presents new growth opportunities for private healthcare companies. the planned exchange 'migration' may also help the company to overcome undervaluation in the US capital market and gain more recognition from the local investors in Hong Kong.
For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
Ok. Pfizer is going NUTS! 🚀🚀🚀Nothing is more profitable than fear.
I think Pfizer profits have doubled by Q2 and it's getting even crazier, way crazier.
The whole west is throwing money at them with government and most urbanites in total fear.
They don't even care how much it costs. Destroy a country? Lose 10% of GDP? They don't care, just name your price.
Take AMZN for example. Went vertical, retested ATH, then to the moon.
In the short term (2-3 months or even less) it can be really profitable.
Who cares if Pfizer gets destroyed by crowds after we made our money?
It won't happen overnight (probably).
Here it's different from Amazon there is no reason for the company to trend for years (for now).
It's really short term with the hysterical fear pushing profits to incredible levels.
Share prices have a tendency to retrace after breaking ATH, once again, profitable in the short term.
I'm not stock trader but here it is really juicy. I'm sure there are similar examples?
Price just going vertical... 1999 bubble for sure...
I am not experienced enough but I assume it always or almost always retests ATH
I'm sure it's possible Pfizer just goes vertical, the noob bagholding investors as always will want to greedily snatch their profits the moment they see some green and cause a pullback but euphoria could absorb the selling.
Something like that....
Consolidation...
And again...
Got to check my favorite example
Moderna for 2 years has simply been in a beautiful trend, a work of art.
And it is up more than 1000% since 2020.
Some to compare moderna to:
Other cool trends
Whatever WORX Right?WORX stock tested a key FIb level on Wednesday being the 50 fib line after plotting the top anchor at the recent high the first time WORX busted above the 50 fib. Before this latest round of testing, the last time WORX reached this key level it was rejected heavily.
A few weeks ago, the company announced that it had regained compliance with the NASDAQ listing requirements. At the same time, it announced that Tim Hannibal, current COO, would become the new CEO. He stated that “over the last 10-15 years, technology within the healthcare industry has evolved both in cost and complexity. Unfortunately, the technology which was implemented within different hospital departments and with disparate objectives has failed to provide the promised advancements.” As a leader in providing software to healthcare institutions, there is a clear benefit that Scworx could gain from the pandemic’s current state and the ending of Covid-19. With all of this in mind, is WORX stock worth keeping an eye on?
Quote source and read more: 4 Epicenter Penny Stocks You Need to Know About in 2021
Big Crash Incoming On BNTXThere will most likely be a 25% to 35% drop in BNTX over a very short period of time.
If we gap down Tuesday then expect it to drop the whole day.
Reasons: Price and volume divergence, over-extesnion of price and emotions, demand imbalances are way lower, topping formations intra-day.
Are Covid Stocks Coming Back?If there is any hope for the S&P right now it may very well come from the healthcare sector with mega blue chip Johnson & Johnson.
JNJ has managed to put in consecutive higher highs and higher lows on the weekly, and now also is confirming support on the .618 fibonacci level at $165.40.
However, there appears to still be much selling pressure at just above $168, so don't be surprised if we continue to see consolidation for another a week or two before getting the confirmed breakout above our red resistance line at the aforementioned $168 price level.
If resistance at this level is broken, we will be seeing a possible retest of blue sky all time highs for the healthcare giant JNJ.
In the meantime, I am liking the idea of small longs along the .618 ($165.40) area as long as the upward sloping green trend is not violated.
REG Correlation buyEarlier this year Japara health care (JHC, bottom chart) had a take over bid, pushing the stock to higher prices, outperforming REG. The stock is typically highly correlated, and with the deviation from the mean I'm looking for a return back to the mean. I will be going long REG and potentially taking a short on JHC for a reversion.