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Heartbeattrading

Market Snapshotwww.elliottwavetrader.net Another great write-up by Avi Gilburt and team on the current state of things at a Macro level Not affiliated with them and not pushing any of their services of course.. Do I agree with everything they say? Nope The below snippet from the article hints at the TRUE reason why things are going to get desperate in this economy over the next decade: "QE is merely a machination through which more debt is made available in the system, which is an indirect manner to increase the money supply. It is not actual printing of dollar bills, which would directly increase the money supply. Therefore, if more debt is made available, the only way you will get inflation is if there is public demand for that additional supply of debt. Without the matching demand for the additional debt supply, QE becomes a failure."
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
1
SQUEEZE ME PART DEAUXIn my weekend Gamestop update video I mentioned that although it may be poetic to some to think that a Gamestop short squeeze will cause the market to crash, rarely if ever is it one single event that causes a market to decline. Rather it's the CUMULATIVE effect of multiple market participants "getting out over their skis" from a risk perspective that ultimately brings markets to their knees (from a catalyst perspective that is) So watch me prove it. After GME peaks on 06/09 we are going to look at these plays and see how things went :)
NASDAQ:GOVXLong
by Heartbeat_Trading
3
BITCOIN: $150k by Oct 2025...then PAINThe rise of Bitcoin and the crypto space as a whole has been one of the most fascinating parts of this last Bull Market run. From a socioeconomic perspective the rise of speculative assets, including Bitcoin, often coincides with bull markets and economic cycles. These speculative booms tend to cluster near periods of excessive liquidity, investor euphoria, or the final stages of economic expansion. Below are comparisons highlighting how Bitcoin's behavior aligns with previous speculative asset bubbles and economic cycles: 1. Bitcoin and the Dot-Com Bubble (1995-2000) Similarities: Speculation Driven by Innovation: The internet in the 1990s and blockchain technology in the 2010s both promised transformative potential. Parabolic Price Action: Many dot-com stocks exhibited exponential price growth, similar to Bitcoin during its 2017 and 2021 bull runs. Euphoria at the Peak: Both saw significant retail and institutional participation near the top. Collapse: The NASDAQ dropped ~78% after 2000; Bitcoin saw >80% declines after 2017 and 2021 peaks. Economic Context: The dot-com bubble coincided with a strong economy, low unemployment, and expansive monetary policies before the Fed began raising rates in 1999. 2. Bitcoin and the Housing Bubble (2002-2007) Similarities: Access to Cheap Credit: Just as low-interest rates fueled the housing market, easy liquidity and ultra-low interest rates from 2008 onwards helped Bitcoin's rise. Speculative Investments: Both periods saw retail investors flock to perceived high-return assets—real estate in the 2000s and cryptocurrencies in the 2010s/2020s. FOMO and Leverage: Use of leverage amplified returns and risks in both markets. Economic Context: The housing bubble inflated during a period of economic growth and low rates, culminating in the 2008 financial crisis. 3. Bitcoin and Gold During the 1970s Similarities: Hedge Against Inflation: Bitcoin is often called "digital gold," much like gold was a refuge during the stagflation of the 1970s. Speculative Mania: Gold's rise in the late 1970s was driven by fear of inflation and geopolitical instability, paralleling Bitcoin's role as a hedge during monetary expansion. Economic Context: Rising inflation, energy crises, and global uncertainty contributed to gold's rise, peaking in 1980. Bitcoin's 2021 peak coincided with fears of monetary debasement and high inflation. 4. Bitcoin and the Roaring Twenties Speculation (1920s) Similarities: Technological Innovation: The 1920s saw the rise of automobiles, radios, and electrification, much like blockchain innovations in the 2010s and 2020s. Excessive Leverage: Margin trading drove speculative stock purchases in the 1920s, akin to the leverage seen in crypto markets during Bitcoin bull runs. Economic Context: An economic boom and loose monetary policies fueled the 1920s stock market until the 1929 crash. 5. Bitcoin and Oil During the Early 2000s Similarities: Scarcity Narrative: Oil's rise during the 2000s due to geopolitical concerns and growing demand mirrors Bitcoin's scarcity-driven valuation. Speculative Price Movements: Both experienced rapid growth as speculative capital piled in. Economic Context: Oil's rise coincided with economic growth, peaking before the 2008 financial crisis. Bitcoin has also seen peaks before macroeconomic downturns. Common Themes of Speculative Peaks: Liquidity Abundance: Speculative asset bubbles often form during periods of loose monetary policy or fiscal stimulus. Retail Participation: Peaks are marked by significant retail involvement, media hype, and euphoric sentiment. Late-Cycle Phenomenon: The speculative peak often aligns with the late stages of economic expansion, just before a contraction. Leverage and Risk: High leverage amplifies price volatility and magnifies both gains and losses.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Heartbeat_Trading
Market Snapshot1. Excessive Speculation or Asset Bubbles Preceding downturns, markets often experience speculative mania in certain sectors (e.g., 1929 stock bubble, 2008 housing bubble, 2000 tech bubble). 2. Monetary Policy Tightening Central banks often raise interest rates or tighten monetary policy to combat inflation, reducing liquidity (e.g., Federal Reserve hikes in 1929, 1980, and 2008). 3. Leverage and Debt Crises Excessive leverage among consumers, corporations, or financial institutions increases vulnerability (e.g., margin loans in 1929, subprime mortgages in 2008). 4. Overvaluation of Financial Assets Markets often become overvalued based on metrics like P/E ratios, creating disconnects between prices and fundamentals (e.g., 1999-2000 tech stocks, 1929). 5. Liquidity Crises A lack of liquidity or credit crunch exacerbates selloffs (e.g., 2008 banking crisis, 1987 Black Monday). 6. Geopolitical or Systemic Shocks Unexpected shocks such as wars, oil crises, or pandemics trigger fear and uncertainty (e.g., OPEC oil embargo in 1973, COVID-19 in 2020). 7. Declining Consumer Confidence Consumer sentiment falls due to high unemployment, inflation, or fear of recession, dampening spending and economic activity (e.g., 2008, 1980s). 8. Corporate Earnings Decline Broad declines in corporate profits lead to stock selloffs (e.g., early 2000s dot-com bust, 2008 financial crisis). 9. Structural Economic Weakness Economic imbalances or structural issues amplify downturns (e.g., overproduction in 1929, housing bubble in 2008, supply chain disruptions in 2020). 10. Psychological Panic and Loss of Trust Fear and herd behavior lead to mass selloffs, deepening declines (e.g., 1929 panic selling, Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008).
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
2
MOASS: WC: 32.20 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100KTLDR: 35-40 Region is next Significant retracement will follow that will take us back down to 28-30ish VWAPS and VPOCs will ultimately provide support 100% move coming in Jan Emoji timeline is legit IMHO The Cat is signaling to Inauguration and End of April FIb TIme Axis agrees with suspected emoji timeline Swaps are a big component of the short play Swaps will AGAIN be used to resolve MOASS and this will play out AGAIN in 3-4 years
NYSE:GMELong
by Heartbeat_Trading
23
Market SnapshotMUST READ!!!! All credits to Avi Gilburt and his team www.elliottwavetrader.net “Observers’ job, as they see it, is simply to identify which external events caused whatever price changes occur. When news seems to coincide sensibly with market movement, they presume a causal relationship. When news doesn’t fit, they attempt to devise a cause-and-effect structure to make it fit. When they cannot even devise a plausible way to twist the news into justifying market action, they chalk up the market moves to “psychology,” which means that, despite a plethora of news and numerous inventive ways to interpret it, their imaginations aren’t prodigious enough to concoct a credible causal story. Most of the time it is easy for observers to believe in news causality. Financial markets fluctuate constantly, and news comes out constantly, and sometimes the two elements coincide well enough to reinforce commentators’ mental bias towards mechanical cause and effect. When news and the market fail to coincide, they shrug and disregard the inconsistency. Those operating under the mechanics paradigm in finance never seem to see or care that these glaring anomalies exist.”- Robert Prechter
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
1
Market SnapshotQuestions I've been asking myself lately: Is my Bank safe? If the market crashes will they survive? While they fight for survival is my money at risk being with them? Do I have enough money saved so that if my job decides my services are no longer needed my family is not immediately or permanently at risk? What's the safest vehicle to put my money in a highly inflationary environment? What's the safest vehicle in a deflationary environment? What if the price of oil doubles over the next 5 years? You really need to buy more gold and silver (not a question just talking to myself) How will I take advantage of the housing crash that's looming? Why haven't you opened a family trust yet and put all of your assets under the care of?
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
MOASS: WC: 27.99 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100KTLDR: BOOM!!! Volume Point of Control (VPOC) is critical to watch as well VPOC tracks the major waves in the wave cycle and will sit between major waves VPOC and where it sits in relation to price, like VWAP, helps us track the progression of waves Next move will take us to the 35-40 region Price will then retrace back to the 28 region which is where we will see an EXPLOSION IN PRICE That move back to 28 will be your last time, maybe ever, to get GME at anything near these levels The next move after the retracement to 28 takes us to 70 After 70 comes CHEERS EVERYBODY!!!
NYSE:GMELong
by Heartbeat_Trading
28
MOASS: WC: 29.06 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100KTLDR: -RK Emoji timeline and latest tweets align with our consistent prediction that Jan would see explosive price movement -Elliott Wave is our guide -500 area is the next major target area on the way to 1800-2400 -Protect your investment at all costs! -35-40 area is significant and after we reach it we will see a retracement to the 30ish area and then we should head to 75 -That move to 75 is your first clue that 100K is very possible
NYSE:GMELong
by Heartbeat_Trading
33
Market Snapshotwww.investopedia.com 1. "An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." — Benjamin Franklin When it comes to investing, nothing will pay off more than educating yourself. Do the necessary research and analysis before making any investment decisions. 2. "Bottoms in the investment world don't end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows." — Jim Rogers While 10- to 15-year lows are not common, they do happen. During these times, don't be shy about going against the trend and investing; you could make a fortune by making a bold move or lose your shirt. Remember the first quote in this article and invest in an industry you've researched thoroughly. Then, be prepared to see your investment sink lower before it turns around and starts to pay off. 3. "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." — Warren Buffett Be prepared to invest in a down market and to "get out" in a soaring market, as per the philosophy of Warren Buffett. 4. "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu It's far too easy for investors to lose perspective. Whenever something big goes wrong, a lot of people panic and sell their investments. Looking at history, the markets recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, the dotcom crash, and even the Great Depression, so they'll probably get through whatever comes next as well. 5. "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." — George Soros Too many investors become obsessed with being right, even when the gains are small. Winning big and cutting your losses when you're wrong is more important than being right. 6. "Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time." — Jeff Bezos Most people dismiss many of the best and most profitable investment ideas simply because they probably won't work. These investors never stop to consider how much they could make if unlikely outcomes actually occur. Jeff Bezos took those bets and became one of the richest people in the world. 7. "Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!" — John Bogle If it seems too hard to find the next Amazon, John Bogle came up with the only sure way to get in on the action. By buying an index fund, investors can put a little bit of money into every stock. That way, they never miss out on the stock market's biggest winners. 8. "To the extent we have been successful, it is because we concentrated on identifying one-foot hurdles that we could step over rather than because we acquired any ability to clear seven-footers." — Warren Buffett Investors often make things too hard for themselves. The value stocks that Buffett prefers frequently outperform the market, making success easier. Supposedly sophisticated strategies, such as short selling, lose money in the long run, so profiting is much more difficult. 9. "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." — Phillip Fisher That is another testament to the fact that investing without education and research will ultimately lead to regrettable investment decisions. Research is much more than just listening to popular opinion. 10. "In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." — Robert Arnott At times, you will have to step out of your comfort zone to realize significant gains. Know the boundaries of your comfort zone and practice stepping out of it in small doses. As much as you need to know the market, you need to know yourself too. Can you handle staying in when everyone else is jumping ship? Or getting out during the biggest rally of the century? There's no room for pride in this kind of self-analysis. The best investment strategy can turn into the worst if you don't have the stomach to see it through. 11. "How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." — Robert G. Allen Though investing in a savings account is a sure bet, your gains will be minimal due to the extremely low interest rates. But don't forgo one completely. A savings account is a reliable place for an emergency fund, whereas a market investment is not. 12. "If there is one common theme to the vast range of the world’s financial crises, it is that excessive debt accumulation, whether by the government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic risks than it seems during a boom." — Carmen Reinhart Beware of debts that seem sensible during periods of prosperity. When a crisis comes, individuals, companies, and even governments that ran up debts during the boom usually suffer the most. 13. "We don't prognosticate macroeconomic factors, we're looking at our companies from a bottom-up perspective on their long-run prospects of returning." — Mellody Hobson It's very difficult to predict when the next recession or stock market crash will come, so many of the best investors don't even try. Instead, look for good companies with the strength to make it through the occasional challenging economic environment. 14. "Courage taught me no matter how bad a crisis gets ... any sound investment will eventually pay off." — Carlos Slim Helu Don't despair amid the inevitable setbacks that all investors face, especially during a crisis in the market. If the reasoning behind the investment is sound, stick with it, and it should eventually turn around. 15. "The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator." — Ben Graham You are an investor, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts. 16. "The biggest risk of all is not taking one." — Mellody Hobson There is a direct tradeoff between risk and returns. If investors stick to low-risk assets like the money market and bonds, then they run a high risk of low long-term returns. 17. "Returns matter a lot. It's our capital." — Abigail Johnson The long-run rate of return on investments ultimately determines how much wealth people accumulate over time. Always look at returns when considering mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 18. "It's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for." — Robert Kiyosaki If you're a millionaire by the time you're 30 but blow it all by age 40, you've gained nothing. Grow and protect your investment portfolio by carefully diversifying it, and you may find yourself funding many generations to come. 19. "Know what you own, and know why you own it." — Peter Lynch Do your homework before making a decision. Once you've made a decision, make sure to re-evaluate your portfolio on a timely basis. A wise holding today may not be a wise holding in the future. 20. "Financial peace isn't the acquisition of stuff. It's learning to live on less than you make, so you can give money back and have money to invest. You can't win until you do this." — Dave Ramsey By being modest in your spending, you can ensure you will have enough for retirement and can give back to the community as well. 21. "Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas." — Paul Samuelson If you think investing is gambling, you're doing it wrong. The work involved requires planning and patience. However, the gains you see over time are indeed exciting. Many of the best quotes about investing urge thoughtfulness over impulsiveness, boldness instead of caution, and smart research over flavor-of-the-month decision-making. Top Investing Quotes from Contrarians 22. "The four most dangerous words in investing are, it’s different this time." — Sir John Templeton Follow market trends and history. Don't speculate that this particular time will be any different. For example, a major key to investing in a specific stock or bond fund is its performance over five years. 23. "Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing." — Warren Buffett In the beginning, diversification is relevant. However, there are dangers of over-diversifying your portfolio. Once you've gotten your feet wet and have confidence in your investments, you can adjust your portfolio accordingly and make bigger bets. 24. "You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." — Peter Lynch When hit with recessions or declines, you must stay the course. Economies are cyclical, and the markets have shown that they will recover. Make sure you are a part of those recoveries. 25. "The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself." — Peter Thiel
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
Noah or The Boy Who Cried Wolf?When I first started posting on Tradingview I was primarily focused on the broader markets and my expectation that we were nearing a generational top in multiple markets. In fact, by our estimation we should be the near the completion of a bull market that began at the bottom of the Great Depression lows. I knew based on the price structure that the move up off the Covid lows would likely be the final move up to complete this generational bull market. I anticipated the 5000 level being significant so once I saw the pullback at 4800 in 2022 start, I began watching for its conclusion and the subsequent retracement back towards the high. I did not expect the market to make a new high so I publicly begin calling out that a possible top was in back in May 2023: Of course as we know the markets did not top and we have been on an almost parabolic rise since. While the size of this rally is unexpected, its resiliency is not. ALL bull markets die while clawing and grasping for every last scrap of liquidity. With that in mind as the market reached critical junctions we prudently and publicly told people that a top could be imminent and to be extremely careful. Yes, we added a healthy dose of hyperbole on the top. We felt that was necessary to hopefully shake whoever may see it out their drunken love with this bull market long enough to consider that the market was at extremes at almost every key metric...and you should pay attention!!! Now we are at the point where I feel I need to make another bold public call: SPX will most likely top at the 6400ish level sometime by January 15th 2025 We expect the decline that follows to feel "crash-like" from a sentiment perspective. Something similar to what we experienced, feeling wise, during the covid decline. We expect the decline to last throughout 2025 into 2026 with price bottoming south of 4000 in the 3800 region (we will post more defined targets later). So as you go through my posting history you will definitely see times where I have felt strongly that a top was imminent. You may think to yourself, "This guy is a crazy permabear who uses Elliott Wave mumbo jumbo to crystal-ball the market..no way he's right". And you know what..maybe you are right. But you have to ask yourself: Am I, metaphorically, the child from the story, "The boy who cried wolf", or Noah from the biblical account of the flood? They both in their own way were screaming that "the sky was falling"...but one was actually telling the truth.
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
7
Market SnapshotHighly suggest you give it a read www.elliottwave.com The socionomic theory of finance (STF) proposes that economic and financial markets are fundamentally different from each other. The differences manifest at both the individual and aggregate levels and arise from the opposing contexts of relative certainty in the economic marketplace vs. pervasive uncertainty in the financial marketplace. In economic markets, producers and consumers, due to knowledge of their own values, consciously apply reason to decision making. This results in exogenously motivated objective pricing. In financial markets, speculators, due to ignorance of others’ future actions, unconsciously apply herding impulses to decision-making. This results in endogenously motivated subjective pricing. The opposing motivations of producers and consumers cause economic markets to tend toward equilibrium, mean reversion and price stability, in a process regulated at the individual level by utility maximization and at the aggregate level by the laws of supply and demand. The unopposed motivations of speculators cause financial markets to tend toward dynamism in a process regulated at the individual level by spontaneous commands and at the aggregate level by the law of patterned herding. The pricing model for economic markets is the random walk. The pricing model for financial markets is a hierarchical fractal called the Wave Principle, described in the Elliott wave model. Neoclassical economic theory and, in finance, the efficient market hypothesis fail to discern all of these distinctions and inappropriately apply laws of economic causality to finance.
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading