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$DXY oil vs the dollar 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* If CPI tomorrow reports elevated inflation, we suspect that $DXY will fall down to its next support. When the dollar weakens it should send oil prices even higher. !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:DXYShort
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
$UVXY 24 hours max! in and out 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management My team purchased shares of Inverse ETF $UVXY this afternoon. This set-up will challenge our 1-hour chart abilities. Our first take profit is set at $18. Our take profit 2 at $20 may or may not get hit. We have also set an automatic stop-loss at $14.25. ENTRY: $15.50 TAKE PROFIT 1: $18 TAKE PROFIT 2: $20 STOP LOSS: $14.25 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
CBOE:UVXYLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
1
TLT may return to 132-135 neutral zone as a flight to safety.TNX 10-yr yield may have peaked out as investors rotate to the safety of bonds in the 120-114 accumulation zone. TLT has completed a big M-pattern stopping at almost perfect FIBO levels. This ABC wave has already made a 300% retracement from the ATH of 173.89 made last 9Mar2020 before pandemic striked. The 132-135 zone will be some sort of neutral area for determining inflation or deflation. It is also the neck zone of the M-pattern. As it fell quickly from this zone, the rebound will also be very fast looking at the volume profile that has a large space in between. 5 impulse waves & 3 ABC corrective waves have end this EW cycle & a new cycle shall begin as TLT returns to the baseline of my slanted FIBO CHANNEL where wave 3 had started at Feb2011. Not trading advice
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by xtremerider8
USDJPY (Hedge Idea) With all financial markets preparing for the upcoming summer rate hikes, I predict markets will consolidate within a larger than usual range presenting great opportunities for investments. Next Hike: June 15-16, 2022. Hedge Idea (Scale / Intraday): Short: Scale into positions when price breaches 130.000 handle up to the top third end of the range (131.500) Long: Scale into positions when price breaches 128.250 handle & below to the bottom end of the range (127.000) POST FOMC HIKES (Mid-Term Forecast): LONG Target Price: 140.000 Target Date: End of July / Beginning of August
by brandonmattis
Emotional Responses are Dangerous in this EnvironmentMarkets across all asset classes hate uncertainty because it causes traders, investors, and all market participants more than a bit of indigestion. Fear and greed are emotions that drive impulsive behaviors. Effective decision-making depends on a rational, logical, and reasonable approach to problem-solving. The Fed finally addresses inflation Recessionary risks are rising Stagflation creates the worst of both worlds Tools impact the demand side- The supply side is a challenge Tools and rules for keeping emotions in check during scary times Reducing impulsive, emotional responses is a lot easier said than done. While it is easy to mitigate emotion during calm periods, they take over and trigger fear or greed-based actions in the heat of the moment. In mid-May 2022, the markets face a crossroads. The current market correction is a function of rising interest rates, the potential for an economic decline, a rising dollar, the war in Europe, supply chain issues, geopolitical tensions between nuclear powers, and a host of other domestic and foreign factors. It is now the most critical period in decades to take an emotional inventory that will avoid catastrophic, impulse-based mistakes. Wide price variance in all markets could accelerate, and those with a plan are the most likely to succeed and protect their hard-earned capital. The Fed finally addresses inflation The US central bank had an epiphany after mistakenly believing that rising inflationary pressures were “transitory” in 2021. The Fed woke up smelling the blooming inflationary environment late last year when CPI and PPI data showed the economic condition rose to the highest level in over four decades. At the May 4 meeting, the central bank hiked the Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points to 75 to 100 basis points. The central bank told markets to expect 25 or 50-basis point hikes at each meeting for the rest of 2022 and into 2023. The Fed also laid out its plans to reduce its swollen balance sheet, allowing government and debt securities to roll off at maturity. While the Fed has switched to a hawkish monetary approach, it remains behind the inflationary curve. Last week, April CPI came in at 8.3% with PPI at 11%, meaning real short-term interest rates remain negative, fueling inflation. While wages are rising, they are lagging behind inflation. Consumers may be earning more but spend even more on goods and services each month. Recessionary risks are rising The US first quarter 2022 GDP data showed a 1.4% decline or economic contraction. The war in Russia, sanctions and retaliation, supply chain bottlenecks, deteriorating relations with China, political divisiveness in the US, and many other issues weigh on the US economy. Meanwhile, rising US interest rates have put upward pressure on the US dollar, pushing the dollar index to a multi-year high. As the chart shows, the dollar index rose to 105.065 last week, a two-decade high. A rising dollar is a function of increasing US rates, but it makes US multinational companies less competitive in foreign markets. The falling GDP in Q1 2022 increases the threat of a recession, defined as a GDP decline in two successive quarters, putting pressure on the Q2 data this summer. Stagflation creates the worst of both worlds Recession and inflation create stagflation, the worst of all worlds for central bankers seeking stable markets and full employment. The most recent economic data has put the US economy on the road towards stagflation as rising prices and a sluggish economy require competing monetary policy tools. The Fed is addressing inflation with higher interest rates and quantitative tightening, but recession requires stimulus, the opposite of the current hawkish monetary policy path. The central bank must decide on which economic condition threatens the economy more. The Fed seems to have chosen inflation, but it is more than a reluctant choice. Tightening credit treats the inflationary symptoms, but it can exacerbate recessionary pressures as higher rates choke economic growth. Stagflation is an ugly economic beast. Tools impact the demand side- The supply side is a challenge Meanwhile, the US and other central banks have deep toolboxes that address demand-side economic issues. While inflation and recession require different tools, the Fed faces other compelling factors from the global economy’s demand side. The war in Ukraine is distorting prices as sanctions on Russia and Russian retaliation distort commodity prices. Moreover, the “no-limits” alliance between China and Russia creates a geopolitical bifurcation with the US and Europe. With nuclear powers on each side of the ideological divide, economic ramifications impact the economy’s supply side. China is the world’s leading commodity consumer, and Russia is an influential and dominant raw materials producer. Energy and food prices are the battlegrounds. Central banks have few tools to deal with supply-side shocks and changes, which can create extreme volatility in the prices of goods and services. The Chinese-Russian alliance transforms globalism with a deep divide. Global dependence on Chinese demand and Russian supplies distorts raw material’s supply and demand fundamentals. While the US Fed faces a challenge balancing inflation and the potential for a recession, the supply side issues only complicate the economic landscape, increasing market volatility across all asset classes. Tools and rules for keeping emotions in check during scary times The best advice for dealing with anxiety came from US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who said, “the only thing to fear is fear itself.” Conquering fear requires a plan that mitigates emotions no matter the market conditions. The Fed’s toolbox is bare in the current environment, creating a volatile landscape. Chasing inflation and dealing with a recession in the face of supply-side shocks is a potent cocktail for price variance. Investors and traders need to change their orientation to markets to adapt to the current conditions. The following tools and rules can assist in mitigating the human impulses that lead market participants to make significant financial mistakes: Hedge portfolios using market tools to protect the downside and allow for upside participation. Hedging reduces the impulse to liquidate portfolios because of fear. Since volatility creates opportunities, approach markets with a clear plan for risk versus reward. Remember that the market price is always the correct price. A risk-reward plan only works when risk levels are respected. Markets are never wrong, while traders and investors are often wrong. A long or short position should constantly be monitored at the current price, not the original execution price. Positions are long or short at the last tick. Adjust risk and reward levels based on current market prices. Follow trends, not news, “experts,” or pundits. Trends reflect the crowd’s wisdom, and collective wisdom reflects the sentiment that drives prices higher or lower. Never attempt to pick the top or the bottom in a market, let the price trends do that for you. The rules are simple, but emotions are tricky. The emotions that trigger impulsive behavior cause market participants to ignore the rules. The critical factor for success in markets is discipline, defined as “the practice of training people to obey rules or a code of behavior, using punishment to correct disobedience.” When it comes to our hard-earned savings and portfolios, the punishment is losses. Tuck those emotions away and face the volatile market landscape with a plan. Hedge your nest egg, and you will sleep better each night. Remind yourself that fear is the only factor you should fear. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
ICEUS:DX1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
1
GOLD/USD Daily TA Cautiously BearishXAU/USD Daily cautiously bearish. Cup and Handle formation has been invalidated/Double Top formation from August 2020 + March 2022 in play . Recommended ratio: 25% Gold, 75% cash. Price is currently losing support at the 200 MA ($1837) as it continues to trend down and out of the major uptrend line from August 2018. Volume remains high and has favored sellers for two consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1875, this is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 30 as it risks breaking the uptrend line from April 2013 (the year of the 'Taper Tantrum' when the Fed was once again delayed in unwinding QE); the next support is at 27.31. Stochastic remains bearish and is on the verge of crossing over bullish at 14.37; the next support is at max bottom and the next resistance at 21.78. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -27.63; it is still technically testing 19.72 support and if 19.72 doesn't hold the next support would be the ATL at 54.60. ADX is currently trending up at 24 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price isn't able to defend the 200 MA at $1837, then it will likely retest $1702 support before potentially heading lower. However, if Price can bounce here, then it will likely retest the uptrend line from August 2018 at ~$1870 as resistance before deciding its next move. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1910.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by dailytaguy
BITO (Bitcoin Asset) as an alternative diversification assetFundamental Analysis Bitcoin is highly correlated with Equity assets in the near-term. The asset would decouple from this positive correlation the way Gold did when it switched from a speculative commodity into a safety asset. In the short-term, there will be high volatility, but in the long-term this asset could decouple from the Equity market once regulations are increased on it. BITO etf has had a huge sell-off and could be a good hedge for a portfolio in the long-term, with a potential for a huge spike once regulations favour this commodity as a viable risk asset. From a portfolio approach, it helps with diversification in the long-term when the asset starts to trade more uncorrelated with the equity markets and trades more like the derivatives market. This is still not a well-established risk asset and should be treated like currencies in the short-term. Technical Analysis Bitcoin in the short-term is acting like an equity risk asset. Over the long-term, it should decouple and be a better risk instrument. However, it is still underpriced compared to gold and can be used as a risk hedge for a portfolio.
AMEX:BITOLong
by ashpat86
GOLD/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishXAU/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *Cup and Handle formation from August 2011 still valid + recent downturn can be attributed to a strong dollar (move to treasuries) but overarching theme of geopolitical uncertainty and inflation still control the narrative thus far*. Recommended ratio 40% gold, 60% cash. Price is currently testing the 200 MA at $1838 as support and is still technically testing the uptrend line from August 2018 at ~$1870 as support as well. Volume (according to CME data) is moderately high and on track to favor sellers for three consecutive sessions as it is at a critical support. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1895, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from April 2013 at 32 as support (for the first time since August 2021) after being rejected by 39.34 resistance. Stochastic reverted to a bearish crossover after being rejected by 21.78 resistance and is currently trending down at 3.50 as it approaches a retest of max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is slightly trending down at -24 as it tests -19.72 support. ADX is slightly trending up at 21 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to defend support at the 200 MA ($1838) then the next likely target is a retest of $1910 resistance (after reclaiming the uptrend line from August 2018 at ~$1870). However, if Price breaks down here, the next likely target is a retest of $1702 support which would invalidate the Cup and Handle formation. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1910.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by dailytaguy
Time to buy SILVER?Please LIKE, COMMENT, or SHARE for your SUPPORT. For those that know me, I've been looking at gold and silver very closely over the years. I last purchased them during the crash of 2020 with an average cost of $17 an ounce of silver and $1450 an ounce of Gold. I used the dollar cost average method to build my positions. I then sold the gold at $2050 an ounce and silver at $25.50 an ounce. This was a 50% profit move for silver and a $40% profit for gold. All we can do as traders are enter and exit a position where it is statistically accurate based on the trend that we're in. We use indicators, other technical tools and news to spot changes in the trend early on and then build our positions when the market meets our criteria. Since then I have waited for Gold and Silver to look more attractive. Over the last year, the velocity of currency was quickly on the rise. In other words, people were coming out of their homes and spending all their hoarded money. By creating more dollars, the supply of the total dollars rose in comparison to all the GOODS/SERVICES and ASSETS in the world. This is important since those are the true wealth of an economy. This wealth is not inflatable like the dollar. Yes, it could be inflated by the dollar causing its price in dollars to rise but you cannot create more of this type of wealth with a click of a button. The Fed at the time was regarding inflation as "transitory," and there was still no end in sight to bond purchasing and artificially inflating the market. In simpler terms, there was no end to the money printer. The better bet seemed to be in real estate, stocks, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. I jumped ship until the Fed announced rate hikes and a smaller balance sheet. Why? Because investors were willing to in a sense "bet on the Fed." There needed to be a reduction in printing. It's begun but still not enough to fully combat the monster of inflation that is coming and what's already here. Between the COVID impact, people not working, and being supported by the government through STIMULUS checks and other government funding programs, inflation was due to kick in at some point. This is because nothing is free. This is true even if the governments give us "free money." That money did not exist before it showed up in our accounts. Essentially, they are opening a new credit line for each person they give a check. This was not just happening in America but all over the world. The world did not gain more resources but the means to purchase those resources has been growing rapidly. With 7.89 billion people in the world plus some who have already died and received a check, imagine what that would do when unleashed back into the world economy. America is currently flashing the yellow light to slow down the money printing while every other nation is still on the green light. This can be reflected in the US Dollar index which is a measure of a hand full of currencies vs. the dollar. Today, as these things are going on, the index shows the dollar strengthening. This is not because it can purchase more things but because the values of other currencies are going down. Traditional markets like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and the S&P500 are not looking good. This is usually when some look for a way to hedge their positions since we don't know which way the market will go in the short term. Traditionally one way that is done is with precious metals like GOLD and SILVER. Right now, gold priced in silver is becoming more expensive. As the Gold/Silver ratio rises, it is often more desirable to hold more silver than gold and vice versa in hopes of stabilization of this ratio. In a world of high inflation, storing one's wealth in fiat currencies is like storing your money in the S&P 500 but in reverse. Inflation is skyrocketing all over the world. Even Russia, because of the money printing, oil hikes, and the stress of war, suffered double-digit inflation. It seems like it won't be long before inflation in the US enters the double digits as well. Enter every trade at your own risk. A trade can be short-term to long-term. Have a strategy set with rules for both short and long-term trades. Stick to it based on the fundamentals if you're looking at something to invest in for the long term. For a short to medium trade, look for a good setup and expect a shorter timeframe in which you hold your position. As you can see, the three different ways to trade are short-term, mid-term, and long-term and each requires a different approach. Even if you hedge your position in dollars, don’t forget that its purchasing power is evaporating through inflation. None of this is investment advice. LIKE, COMMENT and SHARE if you’d like more content like this and share your thoughts. I’d love to connect with you.
TVC:GOLDSILVERLong
by Cavila1
1
$UVXY buying the dip 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management Recap: Bitcoin and the US markets are losing steam after rallying for the majority of the month of March. We entered $UVXY on 3/25/22 at $14.25 per share. Our take profit was set at $18. My team has decided to average down on $UVXY at $11.75 per share which now brings our share average to $13. We have also added a 2nd take profit at $21. SHARE AVERAGE: $13 TAKE PROFIT 1: $18 TAKE PROFIT 2: $21 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
CBOE:UVXYLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
10
Great spot to play both ways slightly OTMI don’t usually use linear regression channels because this is supposed to be a stochastic process.. but they actually work well for near term moves especially when the price is sitting directly on center line - good chance it will visit one of the borders soon and if range is wide enough playing both sides simultaneously with OTM cheap enough that you can make good return if either border is hit. For AMC notice that the last touch of lower border was followed by small bounce to center and then back down. Since it could very easily follow that pattern in reverse (drop to center from touch from upper border followed by bounce to just under upper border) in a squeeze potential environment such as this I like 3:2 calls to puts. Not financial advice.
NYSE:AMC
by JabezDolz