Heiken-ashi
Gold Trades Higher but Runs into ResistanceGold traded higher today, closing at 1240.1, up 5.8 points on the day. While the move was great for the bulls, the precious metal ran into strong resistant @1243.7, the highs from last week. If Gold continues to move up tomorrow, that will mark the 3rd consecutive week up and the 7th out of the last 8 weeks. Here's the weekly chart:
On the main chart above, I've labelled the short term and intermediate waves for this bull run that started on the 23rd of December last year. The measured move of that (A) wave would put price at 1274.3. That's the intermediate wave. The measured move of the short term wave, the minor (a) that started on January 27, would put price at 1283. I've labeled those waves on the chart and put a rectangle at the projected area.
The Heikin-Ashi chart shows a strong green candle for today, with a nice wick at the top and no wick on the bottom. That's about as strong a HA candle as you can get.
The volume profile chart shows that today we moved out of the short term value area but are meeting resistance at the top of the intermediate term value area. If price can push higher, there's a low volume area at the 1248 area that could provide some resistance.
Disclaimer: this post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
Gold Breaks Through and Closes Below the 8 Day Moving AverageGold dropped 8.1 points on the day to close below the 8 day moving average. As the dollar rose, gold sold off and finally cracked the 8 day ma. It also closed below the forward adjusted closing price line represented as the cyan line. There is now a high probability that gold will touch the 20 day moving average which is the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands.
The Heikin Ashi chart shows that we are now in red territory, with 2 red candles in a row. If you look back a few days at the last green Heikin Ashi candle, you can see that it is a doji. Doji Heikin Ashi candles signify either a change or continuation of direction. Since that green doji has been followed by 2 red candles, it appears to have signaled a change of direction.
The volume profiles are still showing confluence of the POCs from the intermediate and short terms.
Whether or not we will see a resumption of the C wave and Gold moving higher in the near future is uncertain. For now though, it looks like there is more room to go on the downside.
Gold Tumbles on Dollar StrengthThursday started off promising with Gold hovering around the 1242 level. But then the dollar DXY broke out above the midpoint of the BB and Gold fell, closing the day below the 6 day moving average. At it's low, it touched the 8 day moving average were I am sure many people had their stops.
As the Friday session begins in Asia, Gold continues to fall. Statistically, once price breaks below both the 6 and 8 day moving averages, there is a high percentage probability that price will hit the 20 day moving average, or the midpoint of the Bollinger Band @1214.
Here is the volume profile chart that I've been showing the last few nights. On the long term profile on the far left of the chart, I had been thinking the price would roll up through the low volume area to POC at 1270. But now with price moving lower, it's interesting the the short term POC on the right profile is at the same level as the midpoint of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart above. Coincidence? Confluence? Let's see what happens. :-)
*Disclaimer: this information is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as trading advice.
Gold Gains Almost 8 Points Resuming It's Bullish TrendGold continued to move higher today, closing at 1243.1, a gain of 7.9 points for the precious metal. The US Dollar Index $DXY fell today which helped fuel Gold's rise. As I pointed out yesterday, the dollar had closed under the midpoint on the BollingerBand after having tried to break through that line of resistance and I thought that it would move lower today. It did and Gold was the beneficiary, continuing it bullish trend.
What we want to see now is Gold to keep hugging the outer BollingerBand, rising steadily between the BollingerBands and the rising 6 day moving average. You may want to use the 8 day moving average as a good place to put your stops.
You can have confidence in the bull trend as long as price stays close to the outer Bollinger Bands and above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. You can also use the Heikin-Ashi as a great way to monitor the trend. Look at the chart below. Following the colors is a great way to stay confident in your position. Green is Up and Red is Down. It doesn't get any easier than that. :-)
My final comment here is that you can see that price is trading in the middle of a low volume area. Price may pause here and try to fill in that area before making it's next move.
Gold Pauses and Closes Down Slightly on the DayAfter the big move up yesterday, Gold took a pause and closed down slightly to end the day at 1235.5. The low of the day touched the 1.5 Std Dev Bollinger Band at which point buyers stepped in and bought in anticipation of the next move. On a day where the dollar strengthened, Gold maintaining it's position can be seen as bullish.
On the chart below, I've added 2 volume profiles. The one on the far left is for the time range from Dec, 2015 through today. Notice how the Point of Control (cyan line) is almost exactly at 1273, which is the measured move from the first wave in this bull run. The current price at 1235 is at a rather elongated peak in the profile. If price can get past that peak, the hitting the POC should be a no brainer.
Gold Ends the Week touching the 1221 Resistance LevelGold rose higher today after shaking off a selling spree after the NFP numbers were released. Prices fell right to the 6 day moving average before buyers stepped in and gold prices rallied. Prices continued to move higher right up to the closing bell and the action stopped @ 1221.6. Let's see what happens next week but if price can finally break through the 1221 and close above it (yes, I know, I've said that before :) ), the first target would be 1241, the .618 fib extension of the (A) wave. However, if this is truely going to be an ABC pattern, then price will hit 1278.6, the full 1.0 measured move.
Here's the simplified Heikin-Ashi chart. Although we are in a solid green uptrend, today's candle was an inside candle which suggests that it might take price a couple more days to blast through the resistance.
Here's the weekly chart. Notice that price on the weekly is now right at the midline of the BB. That's equal to a 20 day ma. If price moves above here, the odds are good that it will move to at least the blue BB at 1284.
The final chart I want to look at is a monthly Heikin-Ashi chart. January ended as a red inside bar and so far, the February action has been all green. If price continues to rise, February could be a great month for the bulls.
Have a great weekend!
Gold Breaches 1220 but Ends the Day BelowGold pushed up past the 1220 resistance level for the 3rd time since the start of the year, only to be met with strong resistance and falling back under 1220 to be within the range from 1182 - 1220. While I am still long, the upper wick on today's candle is not the most encouraging for the bulls.
On the bullish side, price is still above the 6, 8 and 21 day moving averages and sandwiched between the 1.0 and 1.5 Bollinger Bands (blue and cyan respectively). The Heikin-Ashi chart below is a little more encouraging with the 3 previous days showing solid green candles without bottom wicks.
Tomorrow is NFP at 8:30 am EST. Let's see if that can push price past 1220 once and for all and get this bull moving!
Gold update - shortFactors suggesting gold possible resumption of downtrend
1. Price/Momentum hidden divergence
2. Recent daily candle piercing 14 MAV, with suggestion of a close beneath this soon.
Trade is on chart.
Gold AB=CD Gold with a continued buy ( ideally closer to 1200 for entry), in which we are trading a potential BC leg.
The target is just below the .618 retracement @1250.
The point of invalidation would be 1176 ( beneath the 14 MAV) .
The trade would be closed short of target if the HA closes beneath a crossed 8/14 MAV.
Risk Reward is 2:1.
Gold worth a long shot on average. Entry for a long when price closes above the short term moving averages.
The point of invalidation is a close beneath the recent swing low @ 1122.
Target is a prior support level (Feb,March,June 2016 , & Fib 50 level) .
Risk Reward is 3 to 1.
If price is beneath target , and closes below the short term moving averages , the trade is closed.
AUDNZD - Bearish breakout from descending triangleAfter testing the lower bound of this descending triangle, AUDNZD appears to have made a jump lower. A pending sell order is set at 1.038 to catch this bearish breakout. This price point was selected in consideration for the 1.04 psychological support level. However, this is still a bit of a risky entry as the lower indicators are showing oversold values.
Recent support was shown in the 1.025 area. A conservative play would be to take profit at this level but price action will dictate how I handle this position once that level is approached.
EURGBP - Bullish trendline break at 50% retracementThe price for EURGBP has retraced to the 50% level of the upward move starting late May. This could set up to be a great risk reward opportunity. With the rejection of this key Fibonacci level and a trend line break for this retrace, I will wait one more day before making an entry decision.
The criteria for a buy entry here will be as follows:
Today's heiken ashi candle must stay green
There should be little or no lower wick on today's candle
The fast Laguerre should stay above 0.15.
The slow Laguerre should raise up above 0.0 (optional but would build confidence)
If everything looks good end of day tomorrow, an entry order will be place a few pips above the today's high.
GBPCAD - Bearish trend continuation and potential sell setupThe overall down trend appears to be holding for GBPCAD. Furthermore, the beginnings of a possible bullish bat pattern are taking shape. However, the current BC retracement is a little short at this point. Nevertheless, the pattern appears to be in proportion and a sell setup is likely before the end of the week or early next week.
AUDUSD Short LogicAUDUSD possible consolidation .74 - .77 in a double top or 3 drives ( as illustrated).
If Point C of potential Gartley can hold ( .7760) , we would be looking for a short setup close to the supply zone.
The short trade would follow the entry and exit rules for trend following with HA candle , listed by Dale _ Ansel .
Stop Loss @ .7840 above X.
Potential targets would be
1. Demand Zone .7420 - .7450
2. B Point to Prior Swing Low @ .7150 - .7180
3. D Point @ .7040
4. X Point @ .6830
AUDUSD Quick Scratch Setup 7/19/2016 1 Hour Heikin Ashi ChartA quick setup for AUDUSD on 1 Hour Heikin Ashi Chart...
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Fist's Slow Move Heiken Ashi EMA7 Side by Side ComparatorGlaz's great slow-move HA with a couple of tweaks and an EMA7 applied. Works exactly llike the EMA6 strategy by Shiva Krishnan but with clear reversal arrows.
For folks new to trading, I'd strongly suggest you only trade with trend - catching reversals can be tricky: so many people get killed doing this. Additionally, the 'trade fear, not greed' principle is worth thinking about i.e. trading short is often more dynamic than trading long.
Publishing at 15M but designed for 1M. Might work across multiple time-frames.
Shiva's strategy suggests you take 2M trades from 1M charts. Others advocate 3M chart and 3M trade immediately after harami set-up or doji, with trend.
Fist's Harami Killer with EMA6 by the Fist of KhanSimple harami and doji indicator adapted from Repo32 Candlestick Identifier - a great piece of work and awesome respect to the originator. This script only shows harami and doji for use with Heiken Ashi in above/below comparison to traditional candlestick chart.
It leaves a clean chart without too many distractions so you can concentrate on price action.
A useful indicator for trading next candle/s in direction of trend off doji or harami. Use Shiva Krishnan's EMA6 method for additonal confirmation.
Publishing at 15M but works well on shorter time-frames.
Please do not just follow the dojis and haramis - general price action needs to be taken into consideration, of course. And please test your own strategy.
