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Copper into JacksonCopper: Market Commentary 23.08.2021 A couple of points to note here; we ticked the 161.8% extension which was our third wave target in our previous copper chart at the beginning of 2021. It always comes down to the same situation; an impulsive complex which can be called sound, but which has one sickly component. As we head into Jackson, according to the long term wave count we have the following two charts which distinguish the five wave sequence: So now buyers are a point up after sweeping the highs, they are in a position to take profits over the coming months and quarters and bring together their own herd again at 3.33x lowest play the fifth wave inside of our major third wave. So far we have done a good job of shepherding the flows in copper as all has been predicable on the technical side; here looking for 3.33x before a slingshot towards 5.50xx in 2023.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by ridethepig
1
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 34 – Ready to go up.Copper made a new low inside the correction, bouncing off the support level and reversing. In the coming days, we anticipate the pair to make a small pullback and reach the orange trendline, as the consolidation seems to be completed. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
OANDA:XCUUSDLong
by financialflagship
10
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 33 – Complex correction in the making.Copper respected our previous forecast, as the price pushed for another bearish move before bouncing off the trendline. In the coming days, we anticipate the pair to slowly rise and make a new top inside the correction. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
OANDA:XCUUSDLong
by financialflagship
24
Copper Rises to Resistance as Supply-Side Issues Heat UpCopper prices are seeing some upside movement as supply-side issues intensify. Codelco's Andina mine in Chile saw workers go on strike after mediation talks fell through. This adds to labor tensions in the major copper-exporting country, with workers at BHP Group's Escondida mine still negotiating a new contract as a possible walk-off looms. Meanwhile, workers at a JX Nippon Mining & Metals owned mine, also in Chile, went on strike this week. Prices are now at a descending trendline formed off the July swing high after rising off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Moreover, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) looks to be providing a degree of confluent resistance. Breaking above the trendline may open the door for an extension higher.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Thomaswestw
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 32 – Bulls edging closer.Copper respected our previous forecast, as the price drop towards the support area. In the coming days, we anticipate the price to make a fake support break-out, before reversing and make a new top inside the correction. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
OANDA:XCUUSDLong
by financialflagship
18
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 31 – Expecting another bullish move.Copper respected our previous forecast, as the price gained bullish momentum. In the coming days, we anticipate the price to drop towards the first support area, followed by a reversal that is expected to break the top again. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
OANDA:XCUUSDShort
by financialflagship
23
State of the inflation/reflation trade - Focus on CommoditiesFor several months I've been talking about the issues with the reflation trade. First it was the Dollar and some stocks topping, then it was bonds going higher, then Crypto crashing and others markets topping a few weeks later. We saw the cracks on Copper, Oil and so on. But is it over? Will the Fed actually tapper and that create issues to the market? Will the inflation keep running hot? So far what we've had was markets getting really far ahead of themselves. The risk on trade made massive moves in just 8-14 months since the crash and so things started slowing down. Bonds fell a lot (25-30%), the USD fell a lot (10-15%), Global stocks rose a lot (~100%), Commodities (30-300%) and of course Crypto skyrocketed (1500-6000%). These moves came after a period of stagnation and from extreme lows after the crash, but they are massive moves nevertheless and a break is healthy. Personally I believe a bigger correction isn't far away, but I could be very wrong as my long term picture indicates much higher prices for many of these markets. I'd like to clarify that many of the reasons that have led to this huge expansion across all markets since March 2020, aren't what most people think they are. Passive investing, excessive speculation/gambling since lockdowns, evolution of technology, Fed narratives & low rates, eviction moratoriums - postponing debt repayments, supply constraints & underinvestment in key material/commodities which are coming out of a brutal bear market... are all way more important to me than what the Fed or Central banks are doing. First of all QE isn't money printing and the Fed doesn't create money. The treasury has created that in combination with the Fed, but it hasn't been as much as people think it is given how big the issues are globally, especially with banks not creating new loans. And the funny thing is that over the last few months banks are using the reverse repo facility indicating strong demand for safe and liquid instruments which is 1. Indicating QE isn't really working 2. Something isn't right in the markets. So are all the above stronger than the deflationary/disinflationary pressures? So far they have been and the truth is that the situation could remain the same for years. Actually I can easily see higher prices for 1-2 years, especially on Oil and Copper. These are the two commodities that will have steady or increasing demand despite all the environmental concerns. In reality its the environmental concerns that are the exact reasons why I am bullish on these two. Why? After a decade of underinvestment there won't be enough production to keep up with the demand. Even if demand goes down, if supply goes down even more that could create a very strong imbalance that could send oil much higher. For copper I can see an even more bullish case because it is actually needed in the ESG movement. Of course government spending also playing a role into this, but this doesn't mean we will get 1970s style of inflation. Now let's get into the charts. As you can see on the main chart of this idea (USOIL), you can see how bullish oil is. I don't believe this high will hold and it has actually found perfect support at the 64-66$ range. No idea how long it takes to break out, but I doubt the 77$ resistance will hold for much longer. Above 77$, 90$ will come easily in my opinion and later even higher prices with 100$/barrel not being out of question. OPEC announced that it would allow some production to come back, but no idea how much and how fast could it come back. Gasoline seems to be leading the way here and prices could go even higher, meaning oil will probably follow. Clearly after 1.5 year in this pandemic people have saved money and want to travel, so the pend up demand is playing a role (at least in the short term). When Copper reclaims the first red zone, it means it has reclaimed its 2011 ATH. That would be pretty bullish in my opinion and a very valuable signal overall. Copper is already showing a lot of strength after a significant pullback and consolidation and that could be the confirmation for more upside. Bonds even after such a rally, along with the USD haven't been able to do much damage. Bonds found resistance when retesting some key lows from below and they seem pretty weak at the moment. The DXY found resistance at its March top and is looking a lot weaker. Actually it has fully broken down. That makes me think this USD rally was potentially a bet on tapering (buy the rumor, sell the news) and the drop is normal as negative real yields in the US are getting very deep. One thing that might be playing a role on this dip for Bonds & USD is the announcement of some the new Repo facilities outside the US for foreigner Dealers and Central banks, with the potential to expand to others too in order to avoid stresses in the markets. Part of the drop in the USD might be attributed to this because many who are expecting the dollar shortage to get worse might be closing positions. So in the short term at least we might see bonds & the USD pullback, but this doesn't they will go much lower. For now most markets seem to be range bound and we are essentially waiting for some clarity as to which direction they will take next. Although we are waiting for some direction, such negative real rates are beneficial to several markets, and Gold could be one of them. Gold hasn't performed very well recently and technically it is neither bullish nor bearish, however if the current negative real rates persist I think gold could do well. Like with Copper, a reclaim of the 2011 ATH (1920$) would be very bullish for Gold. It's interesting how many markets are below some key highs and just chopping below, which could lead into a bullish expansion. Just to be clear again, the ones that look the best are Copper and Oil, while Gold and Silver aren't. The real shortages and real demand is more likely to come on the first two than the latter. Finally, overall stocks don't look bearish. They really don't. There are some bearish scenarios and I do think we might get a strong dip at some point soon, but before the dip we might get a 5% increase and then go lower.
TVC:USOILLong
by BitcoinMacro
1
COPPER- Poised for a Correction Copper prices snapped a five-session winning streak on Tuesday as investors held off on making large bets ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting expected to give more direction on monetary policy. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.8% at $9,735 per tonne at 1635 GMT, after touching its highest since June 15 at $9,924. “Given the scale of moves we have seen since the (close of business) 19th July ... some sort of pause was to be expected especially given the Fed’s two-day meet,”.
FX:COPPERShort
by FX_Professor
2
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 30 – Bulls are knocking on the door.Copper dropped at the beginning of the week, but shortly reversed, and now is making another attempt to break the resistance. In the coming days, we are expecting the price to increase and make a fake break-out, but shortly after we are expecting another drop that will push the price towards the support. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
OANDA:XCUUSDShort
by financialflagship
22
Copper Prices giving a heads up... Earlier, I posted about the S&P500 defying gravity. Another indication to support that view is here... COPPER. It is well known for copper futures to lead/follow (takes turns) the equity markets. The reasons behind this phenomena is very fundamental, copper is used in production of many things, and in an economic upcycle, copper is one of the first metals required, in many forms from wires, to electronic parts. So, superimposed is the SPX on /HG copper futures. You can see the love/hate correlation. It is just astounding. Copper technicals are similar to that of 9 April 2020, as it bounces off the Gann fan support, breaks out over the trend line resistance... it appears bullish, even suggesting that it is looking for the last high. So what might this mean for the S&P500?
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Auguraltrader
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 29 – In the middle of a correction.Copper ranged the entire week, as the price refused to reach the resistance level. In the coming days, we are expecting the price to increase and hit the resistance area again, followed by a reversal that can reach the support area. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
OANDA:XCUUSDShort
by financialflagship
20
COPPER- All 4 targets reached/ Time to go Short? Since May last year Copper had been selected as one of our main investments for the year 2020/2021 ?( check the previous idea here ). We had placed 4 take profit levels early in January to be taken and they were taken successfully , just a bit faster than we thought! At this stage, Copper should leave some profits behind so we are entering a short term short position until our charts demand that we buy in again. This, despite today's news that Shanghai copper rose on Monday on top metals consumer China's move to boost liquidity, while a steady dollar ahead of U.S. inflation data kept London prices under pressure. In anticipation of Chinese data tomorrow morning we feel this is a good entry point at resistance. the FXPROFESSOR
COMEX:HG1!
by FX_Professor
2
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 28 – Another drop is close.Last week, we correctly anticipated Copper to start a correction that will push the price towards the resistance level. In the coming days, we are expecting the price to slightly break the resistance area, followed by a reversal that can reach the support area. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
OANDA:XCUUSDShort
by financialflagship
24
ridethepig | Copper for the Yearly Close📌 Copper for the Yearly Close First with an immediate review of the flows. We were tracking for the capitulation low which was our moment to advance... It was a great choice of moment to load the longs. Extending the belief in commodity shortages which have been entering into play all year long. The highs are worth striving for, all factors remain the same with the macro picture still equal. The main cases where this will play an additional note too at China and Australia flows which is something to consider. After clearing our first targets it's time to aim for the 4.5 main impulsive zone. A flyaway break is in play with such a bullish close, which is generally not very common. Of course the last time this happened was in the early 2000's; and we exploded. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COMEX:HG1!Long
by ridethepig
4
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 26 – Expecting another drop.Last week, we correctly anticipated Copper to start a correction that will push the price towards the resistance level. In the coming days, we are expecting the pullback to end around the confluence between the trendline and the resistance area, before dropping towards a new low. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
OANDA:XCUUSDShort
by financialflagship
12
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 25 – Pullback expected.Last week, Copper started a bearish rally that stopped around the support level. In the coming day, we are expecting a pullback to occur and drive the price towards the resistance zone highlighted on our chart. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
OANDA:XCUUSDLong
by financialflagship
10
Copper Elliott Wave Idea - Bullish Cycle Started?Taking a look at something other than Crude Oil for a change. It appears that Copper is out of a 10 year bear cycle and a bull cycle started in 2016. A look at the beginning; you can see wave 3 hit the 4.618 extension of wave 1 perfectly and then corrected perfectly to the 0.236 level for wave 4 > If you add in the subwaves of wave 5 there is also a nice 0.236 correction of wave 3 for wave 4 > All that would suggest an impulse move up and 4.0505 was the end of a larger degree wave 1. If you look at the following years from 2006 to 2016 it appears to be a multi-year correction in the form of WXYXZ > It completed at exactly the 0.618 level at 1.9300 > Looking at recent time it looks as though the first impulse wave up is completed and now in the correction, possibly to the 0.618 retracement area before up for wave 3 > A look at daily level we could be in wave B of Y > the 0.618 extension lines up nicely with the 0.618 retracement level. Something to keep an eye on I think as it could turn out to be a nice long trade with a stop loss below 1.9260
COMEX:HG1!
by Joseph_King
1
Commodities - Copper Topped OutIdea for Copper: - Commodities Cycle is topped out. - Copper in Trade and Trend Distribution patterns. - Clear 5 wave Impulse completed. - Re-tested resistance and rejected. - Price will bleed out to complete the Head & Shoulders then capitulate. TP1: 3.44 very likely. TP2: 2.78 PT: 1.97 Global markets are not moving back into Goldilocks, no matter what the media is blaring. Reflation Overshoot Trade is over. Exposure should be given to Stagflation and Deflation trades. GLHF - DPT
COMEX:HG1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
COPPER: PRICE DROP DOWN | WAITING FOR NEW BUY SCENARIO 🔔Copper prices fell on Tuesday, as increasing inventories in global exchanges and worries about possible governmental price control measures in top consumer China weighed on sentiment, despite data showing solid copper imports in the first quarter. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.1% to $8,856.50 a tonne by 0706 GMT , while the most-traded May copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.3% at 65,870 yuan ($10,055.72) a tonne. A rise in the prices of global commodities has led to Chinese top officials emphasizing the need to cap prices to reduce cost for firms and control inflation . However, China’s January-March copper imports were the highest first-quarter amount since at least 2008, on rising demand and easing logistics issues. “(There’s been) too much good news baked in, so much so that looking forward, there is expectation of tighter monetary conditions and (China’s) State Reserve Bureau’s release of supplies to help industrial firms cope with rising raw material cost,” said a Singapore-based metals trader. “But I think this is a dip to buy anything between here and $8,800 is worth picking up,” the trader said, adding that data were backward looking.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by FOREXN1
2