Short copper as RSI and MACD are very high on a weekly chartCopper looks overbought after a 80 % rise since march. Time to sell?
Hg1
Copper futures forecast.This is not a trading advice idea and you should only follow this with caution or just for your own personal interest in cycles and Gann theory. This post is made by me to test the methods of forecasting I obtained from long studies of the subject. If you will follow this idea and observe the copper market and the forecast will turn out +- 1 trading day right at each arrow date - it has worked and I will continue to post such posts. Thanks in advance.
*Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
COPPER Don't miss the 2 year bull runA very important long-term pattern was just formed on Copper. On the 1M time-frame, the MA50 (blue line) and the MA100 (green line) have formed a Golden Cross. Last time that happened was in August 2004. Copper rose by +370% from the MA100 break-out level.
The Cycle seems to be repeated as the Golden Cross has come after the price Double Bottomed last March (2020). Same with the November 2001 Double Bottom. Additionally, the LMACD is replicating the exact same sequence.
For me Copper is a dip buy action on every 1M candle from now on.
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Weekly copper market review 12/21/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER
Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.6320 per pound. Copper prices were at highs not seen since February 2013.
Speculative trading is still pushing copper prices, however, net positions in the net commitments of COT traders, after exceeding 80K for the first time, fell slightly last week to 72.12K.
Copper stocks are historically low at 269453 MT, a drop of more than 10% in one week and 16% in December. As can be seen on the stock chart below, total stocks of the red metal are at historically low levels not seen in the last 5 years.
China, the main consumer of copper, is in a phase of accelerated growth, with a recovery in the electronics and automotive exporting sector which has boosted demand for industrial metals.
Figures released last week show that in November the Chinese economy continued to accelerate, a process driven by the recovery in domestic and external demand. Industrial production increased by 7%, the highest rate in 20 months, and investment is supported by government infrastructure programs. Expectations suggest that credit growth and stimulus will continue in 2021, the year for which the IMF forecasts GDP growth of 8.1%.
On the international front, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell announced Sunday evening that a $900 billion deal would be reached. The Fed said its purchases of securities would continue at the current rate of $120 billion per month until substantial additional progress has been made. The brexit saga continues, with the European Parliament's Sunday night deadline for a deal passed, but negotiations will continue. No one seems to want to take responsibility for a possible failure. After Pfizer, the FDA also approved Moderna's vaccine. As far as the pandemic is concerned, the vaccination campaign has started in the United States. The new strain of coronavirus detected in Great Britain worries, it would be 70% more contagious. The global death toll is rising, we have just passed 76 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.692 million deaths. The United States is still the most affected country, with 317,000 deaths and more than 17 million cases.
The Dollar fell last week, with the DXY closing lower at 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish.
ECONOMIC RESULTS
- On Monday, industrial production in the Euro zone came out at +2.1% compared to +0.1% the previous month.
- On Tuesday, industrial production was +7.0% compared to +6.9% in the previous month. The Chinese unemployment rate was 5.2%. US industrial production was 0.4% compared to 0.9% the previous month, and the New York FED manufacturing index was down 4.90 compared to 6.30 in October.
- On Wednesday, manufacturing PMI in the Euro zone rose to 55.5% from 53 the previous month. U.S. retail sales declined to -0.9% from -0.1% in October. U.S. manufacturing PMIs were 56.5 compared with 56.7 the previous month.
- On Thursday, inflation in the Euro zone came out at -0.3% in November as expected. U.S. building permits surprise positively up to 1.639M, U.S. unemployment registrations disappoint at 885K, and the Philadelphia FED manufacturing index falls sharply to 11.1 from 26.3 the previous month.
CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS
- London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 123400 MT from 146325 MT last week.
- Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 74222 MT from 82092 MT the previous week.
- Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 71831 MT for 72520 the previous week.
- Total copper stocks were down to 269453 MT compared to 300937 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week down to 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish. The possibilities of reaching an agreement on a contingency plan to support the U.S. economy, as well as the possibility of an economic recovery, are expected to continue.
Disappointing economic results weighed on the currency last week. Indeed, U.S. Retail Sales down to -0.9% and Unemployment Claims up to 885K disappointed.
A low dollar is generally favorable for dollar-denominated commodity markets.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is down this week to 72.12 K instead of 80.039 K.
Copper HGCopper HG1! - Buy - H4 ChartCopper HGCopper HG1! - Buy - H4 Chart
HGCopper HG1! Continues upward
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Weekly copper market review 12/14/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER
Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.528 per pound.
Speculative trading is pushing copper prices up, with net positions of COT commitments of traders exceeding 80K for the 1st time, they are on historical highs.
Copper stocks are historically low at 300937 MT and are about to fall below the 300 mark which represents less than 5 days of world consumption.
China, the main consumer of copper, is in a phase of accelerated growth, with a recovery in the electronics and automotive export sector which has stimulated demand for industrial metals.
In November, refined copper imports fell for the second consecutive time, down 9.2% compared to October. Imports of copper concentrates increased by 8.3% in November. China's exports grew by 21.1% in November, far exceeding the expected 12%.
Internationally, the ECB increased its asset buyback program by 500 billion, the US support plan is still slow to come, and a brexit no-deal is increasingly likely. The FDA in turn is approving the use of Pfizer's vaccine, and vaccination begins this week in the US. In terms of the pandemic update, we have just surpassed 72 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.607 million deaths. The U.S. is still the most affected country, and will approach and surpass the 300,000 mark in deaths and more than 16 million cases.
The Dollar consolidated last week as the DXY closed higher at 90.976, with the long-term trend still bearish.
ECONOMIC RESULTS
- Last week, Chinese exports grew by 21.1% in November and imports declined by 4.5%. Euro-zone GDP was up 12.5% in Q3, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index surged to 54.4 from an expected 37.5. US unemployment registrations disappointed at 853K for 725K expected.
- On Monday, industrial production in the Euro zone came out at +2.1% compared to +0.1% the previous month.
- On Tuesday, industrial production was +7.0% compared to +6.9% in the previous month. The Chinese unemployment rate was 5.2%. US industrial production was 0.4% compared to 0.9% the previous month, and the New York FED manufacturing index was down 4.90 compared to 6.30 in October.
- Wednesday, Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Manufacturing PMI.
- Thursday, Euro-zone inflation, U.S. building permits, U.S. unemployment registrations, and Philadelphia FED manufacturing index.
CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS
- London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 146325 MT from last week's 149675 MT.
- Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 82092 MT from 97783 MT the previous week.
- Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 72520 MT for 73233 the previous week.
- Total copper stocks were down to 300937 MT compared to 320691 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up at 90.976, although the long-term trend is still bearish. The DXY consolidated last week. The ECB increased its asset repurchase program by $500 billion, and, the U.S. support plan is still lagging behind, still failing to agree on emergency aid of just over $900 billion. The dollar has also strengthened against the pound sterling, on an increasingly likely no-deal, as the disagreements seem so deep.
A low dollar is generally favorable to dollar-denominated commodity markets.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is up this week to 80.039 K instead of 79.856 K.
COPPER- Offering us a second chance to SELLThis is our small chart for Copper.
As you can see from previous ideas we were able to sell it at a perfect time right on the mega-resistance . That level is a massive barrier that Copper will find great difficulty breaking.
The take profits are on our previous charts
Two senarios In Red of Black senarios mid term is steel growing but in long term lag of e or d happen.
COPPER - What a lovely morning ☕We called it, it happened.
Price hit the Mega-Resistance and bounced back down, already down 1,4% today. That was personally my biggest trade in value yesterday and it paid off. Stop losses are now at entry and risk is zero but the potential reward is huge, with several take profit levels in mind.
Technical analysis never lies.
XCUUSD (Copper)Maybe the red (2) is already finished but it's also possible that there is a Y wave to the downside is missing.
COPPER- Our first 3 (of 5 ) take profit levelsWe take profit gradually, always.
Find on the chart our first 3 take profit levels
ps. it takes 1 take profit level for us to secure some profit and then have the stop loss at zero (entry) to secure a guaranteed profit. Try to do the same and your trading will become better. 💌
COPPER- Time for us to SELL We have been waiting for this alarm notification (i guess you know that tradingview can send you alarm notifications) for over a month now.
Well here we go: Time for us to sell Copper now
Copper sell the break setup.Copper - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 34580 (stop at 34910)
Trend line support is located at 34850.
Daily signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes.
A break of 34600 is needed to confirm follow through negative momentum. A higher correction is expected.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a possible turnaround is possible.
Our profit targets will be 33510 and 33110
Resistance: 35000 / 35300 / 35600
Support: 34900 / 34600 / 34000
Weekly copper market review 12/07/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER
Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.5245 per pound.
Speculative trading is pushing copper prices higher, as net positions of the net commitments of traders at +79K are at historical highs.
Copper stocks are historically low at 320691 MT.
China, in November, developed at the fastest pace in 10 years,
exceeding expectations. Currently, the manufacturing sector in the country is the main driver of copper demand worldwide. The increase in appliance sales, caused by the containment and rebound in car and truck production, has reactivated the manufacturing sector and led to the consumption of industrial metals such as steel, copper and aluminum. The relative scarcity of the red metal has pushed industrialists to accumulate copper stocks to face a possible 2nd wave in producing countries such as Chile or Peru. Caixin's manufacturing PMIs stood at 54.9 in November, exceeding expectations and expanding for the 7th consecutive month.
Internationally, last week was marked by the sharp fall of the dollar. The DXY, after breaking through the resistance of the 92, is moving towards the 90's, and the Euro approached $1.22 after disappointing US empoys figures. Hopes for a vaccine, the FED reaffirming that the priority remains to support the economy, and the joint Democratic and Republican proposal for a $908 billion emergency plan are driving equity markets. Curiously, commodities as a whole did not benefit from the dollar's decline.
Discussions between the British and the Europeans continue as the December 31 deadline approaches in the hope of reaching a post-brexit trade agreement. Regarding the pandemic update, we have just passed the 67 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.537 million deaths. The United States continues to be the most affected country with more than 282,000 deaths and more than 14.7 million cases. Italy has passed the 60,000 death mark, and the United States is facing a spectacular rebound of the epidemic with more than 230,000 cases in 24 hours on Saturday. The United Kingdom, the first country to authorize Pfizer vaccine, begins vaccination on Tuesday.
ECONOMIC RESULTS
- Last week was rich in results. Manufacturing PMIs all showed an increase, in China they stood at 52.1 in November against 51.4 in October, in the Euro zone they stood at 53.8 in November against 53.6 in October, in the US they rose to 56.7 in November against 53.4 in October. US job creation disappointed, falling to 245K against 610K the previous month. Orders to US industry were up 1.0% compared to 1.3% in October.
- On Monday, Chinese exports rose by 21.1% in November and imports fell by 4.5%.
- Tuesday, GDP in the Euro zone, the ZEW index of economic sentiment.
- Wednesday, inflation and producer prices in China.
- Thursday, inflation and U.S. unemployment registrations.
- Friday, U.S. producer prices and Michigan consumer confidence index.
CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS
- London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 149675 MT from 150775 MT last week.
- Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose to 97783 MT from 92912 MT the previous week.
- Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 73233 MT for 74019 the previous week.
- Total copper inventories increased to 320691 MT compared to 317706 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 90.701, and the trend is still bearish. The DXY after breaking the 92 resistance, plunged last week and is on its way to the 90. The Euro rose as high as 1.2175 on Friday after very disappointing U.S. employment figures. As a backdrop, Powell said the priority remains to support the economy, and Democrats and Republicans are working together on a $908 billion emergency support proposal as a first step. For later, once the Joe biden administration is in place, work for a more substantial plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply.
A low dollar is generally good for dollar-denominated commodity markets.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is up this week to 79.856 K instead of 73.771 K.
Copper to move lower.Copper - Intraday - We look to Sell a break
We are trading at overbought extremes.
With signals for sentiment at overbought extremes, the rally could not be extended.
A higher correction is expected.
Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a possible turnaround is possible.
Short term MACD has turned negative.
Our profit targets will be 33510 and 32850
Resistance: 34800 / 35000 / 35200
Support: 34600 / 34200 / 34000
Copper turning point?Technical:
An hour precision chart indicates possible head and shoulder formation, negative RSI. Day precision chart indicates RSI almost at its 80s and if a divergence is to be build somewhere there is a high chance it is here.
Fundamental:
Low stockpile of copper in China has inspired a rally but at this level of stockpile ALWAYS in the past we have seen a move that rebuilds it fast within a month.
Take profit 2.5
It would be great to see gold retest 1850 from bottom and then all commodities could initiate a simultaneous correction. In the long term commodities (obviously not all of them) can only rise.
ridethepig | Base Metals StrategyThe linkage between base metals and the rate differentials is unknown to many in the pseudo-classical school of TA, which believe only in absolute correlation; as you all know the supply disruptions and pandemic related closures triggered the waterfall but we are not out of the woods yet...Remember we still have the demand side shock to play into price too, this will allow us to complete a 'wave 2' pullback with an ABC correction.
The revisions down in mining supplies was enough to spark an interest in buyers, and now that most believe we have seen the worst from the demand side it is allowing Copper to form a MT and LT base formation. Those tracking the mining projects in Brazil will know the announcements for a restart in operations have already started. This is going to keep Copper and Steel in particular in strong bid.
📍 On the positioning side, after the healthy (in a technical sense) neutralisation of the entire commodity board we have cleared both sides of the extremes and positioning is currently neutral. The majority must not be allowed on this train, or else the threat of an over-crowded wedge would be disastrous. Take for example what happened against Oil, the boat was fully loaded and we got the historic shakeout:
Eyeballing a test of 2.3 as the value area to re-engage with bullish exposure. We can then bring about the transfer from the wave 2 retrace into an impulsive wave 3. This will be excellent training for those wanting to dig deeper into wave theory and understand the complicated motifs.
As usual, thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Weekly copper market review 11/30/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER
Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.4010 per pound, the highest value since late 2013.
Speculative trading is pushing copper prices higher, with net positions of the net commitments of traders at +68K being on historical highs.
Copper stocks are historically low and declining. They stand at 317706 MT, a decrease of more than 3%, or nearly 10,000 MT. Inventories in Shanghai have fallen by 74.5% since the end of March, and given the forecast deficit of the red metal, the trend should continue in the coming months.
Last week, the US and Euro zone manufacturing PMIs came out at 56.7 and 53.6 respectively. On Monday, China's Manufacturing PMI came out at 52.1. This confirms the good resilience of the manufacturing sector in general, as a reminder a figure above 50 indicates an expansion of the sector. The Euro zone and the US followed an 8th month of expansion and China a 9th.
Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, becoming Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and the hope of a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending, which is weakening the dollar. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 91.790.
While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic is not weakening. We have just passed 62 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.460 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 267,000 deaths and more than 13 million cases.
ECONOMIC RESULTS
- Last week, manufacturing PMIs in the Euro-Zone came out down to 53.6 in November from 54.8 in October. U.S. manufacturing PMIs rose to 56.7 in November from 53.4 in October.
- On Monday, China's manufacturing PMIs stood at 52.1 in November compared with 51.4 in October.
- On Tuesday, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI and Inflation, U.S. Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- On Wednesday, Euro zone unemployment and U.S. job creation.
- Thursday, retail sales in the Euro zone, U.S. unemployment registrations.
- Friday, the report on U.S. employment and industrial orders
CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS
- London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 150775 MT from 157350 MT last week.
- Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange decreased to 92912 MT from 96766 MT the previous week.
- Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 74019 MT from 74290 MT the previous week.
- Total copper stocks were down to 317706 MT compared to 328406 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.790, and the trend is still bearish. This is the first close below the 92 resistance level in almost 2 1/2 years. The presumed appointment of Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary and Joe Biden's talk of a massive $3 trillion support package weighed on the Dollar. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. In addition, U.S. unemployment figures, consumer confidence indexes and inflation figures disappointed last week.
A low Dollar is generally favorable to the Dollar-denominated commodities markets.
COPPER - (Almost) time to SELLcopper- approaching a major resistance level (the ALL TIME RESISTANCE LEVEL)
We will start opening some short positions here today but carefully because it still has room to rise another 2,5% before dropping massively
High grade copper HG looking bullsihCopper traded on the COMEX looks bullish.
Currently at 3.20 per pound, the chart shows an Eve and Adam bottom forming between 2015 and now. The expected target of this move would be 4.70 which would put the market five cents above its old high set in Feb 2011 of 4.65.
From 4.65 I would expect the market to revisit the 3.30-3.60 region to make a strong bottom for a longer term ascent.
Looking back further on the copper chart, there is a longer term Adam and Eve bottom forming starting in Dec 2008 to present. The target would be 7.365 based off of this longer term pattern.
If copper were to trade up to 4.70 area and come back down to 3.50 area, it would also present an opportunity for an ascending triangle to form with the same target, 7.365, as the Adam and Eve pattern.
With a weakening dollar, look to copper for guidance on inflation going forward.
