Copper Elliott Wave View: Next Extension Higher May Have StartedHello Traders,
In this analysis, we will have a look at the metal Copper in the 1 hour chart.
Short-term Elliott Wave view suggests that the pullback to 3.0101 on 5/30/2018 ended blue wave (2). The internals of blue wave (2) unfolded as an Elliott Wave double three structure where red wave W ended at 3.0195 and red wave X ended at 3.1485 high and the decline to 3.0101 low in wave Y of (2).
Above from there, the metal has started the next extension higher in blue wave (3). The rally looks to unfolding as an Elliott Wave impulse structure with extension in red wave 3 higher.
Up from 3.0101 low, the rally to 3.093 high ended in red wave 1. Afterwards, the pullback to 3.046 low ended in red wave 2 and red wave 3 ended at the peak of 3.3165. Red wave 4 pullback can already ended at 3.2585 low and can now extend higher in red wave 5.
As long as Copper stays below red wave 3 peak, a double correction lower in wave 4 can't be ruled out before the metal extends higher again in red wave 5 to complete the 5 waves impulse structure from 3.0101 low within blue wave (3) higher. We don’t like selling the metal and like to stay on the sidelines for now. However, the right side remains to the upside.
Hg1
Quick short to 2.98796Channel Down on 1D (RSI = 43.566, Highs/Lows = -0.0203, BBP = -0.0350) with a porjected Lower Low on the medium term at 2.92894 but a strong 4H support (MACD = -0.009) at 2.98796. We are willing to take this quick short opportunity (TP = 2.98796) and add another one at 3.08978 if needed.
MOD potential breakoutMOD a Kalahari Copper Belt explorer are actively defining a large copper resource. Current bull case based on the small portion of the tenements explored to date is for a USD2.3b copper resource (coincidentally there are 2.3b shares on issue therefore $1 of resource per share), as they continue to drill out the targets this resource is expected to grow.
AISC for the LOM are projected to be around $1.46/lb against a current copper price of over $3 with IRR at 38-39% based on a 9-12 year LOM. With a solid exploration program ongoing both the LOM and resource size are expected to grow substantially.
Initial technical target is 6.0cps representing a 25% upside move from current share price, secondary target is the old high at 9.0cps representing an 87% increase in SP
With the ongoing drilling across several fronts, T3 underground expected to be booked as resource around July/August and the T3 pit DFS delivered in the second half of the calendar year significant catalysts are in place.
copper bullish general outlookCopper has risen to the upside in recent last year, with a strong rebound since the beginning of the trump administration, without a doubt this is a fact reflected in the prices of the red metal, with the promises of the reconstitution of America and with the galloping Chinese dragon on the other side, future prospects look bullish.
Long term Copper outlookCommodities can be a bit of a hit or miss trading off the fib. levels. But since bottoming in 2016, copper has been run through the 2.6 extension level shown here and appears to have been bid up off of that level all year. So, we may be heading to the next level up in the not to distant future.
Expecting Copper to Sell offCopper has had a great bull run and is still bullish at this moment. However, we have a lot of resistance at the $3.30 level, inside of a channel, lots of divergence and we are closing the week as a bearish engulfing pattern. Also, based on elliott wave we should see a sell off as we have completed 5 waves. Also, there is a lot of supply of copper, which should drag on prices. I'm also expecting a dollar rebound here soon. I don't think we will see a break above $3.31 anytime soon and I am expecting for prices to hit $2.90 to $2.50 before rebounding. Whether we hold the channel support or not will also be a big indicator of where we go. I have my best guess drawn on the chart for now.
COPPER FUTURES LONG 2018 - 2030Appears to be the bottom of a minor correction, Vix Fix indicator highlighted for confirmation + ABC consolidation pattern.
Very bullish on copper due to high demand for batteries in the next decade, from electric cars (some countries are banning gas-powered cars) to solar panel systems.
Demand for copper to proliferate between now and 2035-2040.
-Monitoring
Copper on the turn? Or heading further into the doldrums?#Copper (HG) on the turn? (+0.71% this morning) Or will it find resistance around the 61.8% Fibonacci at 2.8130? Hitting a lot of price noise at current levels 2.9845 (approx mid 6500's in #LME world). Good fundamentals / relative value upside play?
EPA approval & Partnership news within 2017--> very BULLISHAMEX:NAK TSX:NDM FWB:ND3
NAK (Northern dynasty minerals) 100% ownership of the pebble project (pebble mine)
the following is just my opinion, you never know what happens :)
this month is probably the last chance to jump in.
- official EPA approval incoming, with pruitt its a done deal already! just formalities!| latest 14th Nov --> institutions jump in? spike to USD3+
- partnership news incoming, as per mgmt within 2017--> hopefully JV for 50% with an option for the other 50%! Maybe a consortium, and if we are very lucky BO | 50% for USD7 - USD9/ shares | BO USD15+
- permitting process incoming, starting end of 2017
the reason why we will get partnership news within 2017? The company has too little money left for the permitting process, and they already hired these guys:
"
Senior Vice President of Engineering and Project Director Stephen Hodgson (P. Eng.) will lead Pebble’s engineering and project development team, with responsibility for all aspects of project design, engineering and financial studies and regulatory compliance. He will be supported by Vice President of Permitting James Fueg (PMP, CPG), who assumes responsibility for all aspects of the project’s regulatory permitting team and process , including management of environmental and socioeconomic studies, liaison with federal and state agencies and active management of Pebble’s forthcoming Environmental Impact Statement (“EIS”) process under the National Environmental Policy Act (“NEPA”).
"
source www.northerndynastyminerals.com
- 33m short interest = ~10% --> short squeeze when we hit >USD3-4?
- biggest copper, gold, moly, silver mine found on this planet yet!
- safe mine design! no cyanide used. source www.northerndynastyminerals.com
- metal prices are rising, specially copper.
must read: very detailed report about this mine www.docdroid.net
COPPER Losing Some Steam for NowOverall, I am still bullish on Copper to the mid $3.50 range. However, at this moment I am expecting a pull back because of a stronger dollar, a weak AUD, were at channel resistance, divergence, and we have made 3 waves up. I am expecting at least a rebound back to the 2.90 area, but I think 2.50-2.60 is very likely where we will have levels of support. At this point, I would strongly suggest to take off bullish bets and bet on the downside to happen.