Short Copper @ 2.8285; TP @ 2.7719, SL your choiceShort Copper @ 2.8285; TP @ 2.7719, SL your choice
Hg1
Copper ShortHave no idea how this makes any sense fundamentally... but i like the RR on the short here.
No idea what makes it happen but see 2.13 on the cards !
Short Bonds & Long Copper | Copper/Gold vs. 10yr YieldsIt looks like the Bond market hasn't priced in growth or we're going to see a nasty reversion trade in the materials sector and a bond pop.
The Copper / Gold pair is a great proxy for inflation due to the divergent properties of the 2 metals. Copper is purely an industrial metal and a proxy for inflationary growth so the 10yr reacts correspondingly. Gold, on the other hand is a precious metal and trades similar to a monetary instrument and is loosely correlated to the long-end from the inverse yield relationship.
General framework of CommoditiesBlue line = weekly levels (4h trading)
Red line = monthly levels (daily trading)
Dotted lines = active levels
Silver to $120+ :D2002 rally from $4
2008 peaks at $17
2008 retrace to $8 (23.6% fib)
2011 rally to $50 (261.8% fib)
2014 retrace to $14 (23.6% fib)
20XX rally to $124 (261.8% fib) ???
Copper: Getting Ready to LongAfter the amazing bullish run late last year Copper has been consolidating. I am now getting ready for the possibility that the correction is soon to be completed and looking for long set-ups.
This wave count is by no means an expert wave count or meant to be exact but conveys my idea that there was a motive wave followed by a three wave correction (labeled (A)-(B)-(C) in the parallel channel (flag?)) that may be close to completing.
My two areas of interest are:
~2.45 -- in this area Wave (A) = Wave (C). It is also the .5 retracement of the impulsive leg in copper which started in October, and may coincide with the bottom of the channel/flag
~2.38 -- in this are Wave (C) = 1.272 * Wave (A), and is also the .618 reatracement of the impulsive leg from October as well as the .5 retracement from last year's low to this year's high. A further drop to this level may also allow RSI to drop into oversold which would be a more ideal situation.
My plan is to continue my recent strategy by trying to enter with very small risk upon a bullish candle on the small time frame once Copper reaches this zone, and move stops to breakeven after I am up a few pips (see my linked idea on the Canadian Dollar for more details about this strategy).
If you have any comments or feedback on this idea or your own view on Copper please share! Best of luck in your trades.
Copper (HG) looking weaker in the short term?Fundamentals around Copper, Steel rebar, Iron ore, Coal not looking so rosy currently. Technically Copper HG looking weak. Dec'16 lows could be next resistance at 2.4785 (Approx LME 5500), a further significant break here could see 38.2% Fib area tested (2.3425) then Nov lows of 2.09. Support may be found at 2.5935.
Copper long starts to build up.Wave C of wave 4 is unfolding as expected earlier. Aggressive long could be built up at around 2.533 and triple the position size around 2.443 if price drop to there.
COPPER HG1! on a possible Continuation PatternCOPPER HG HG1 HG1! respected the Trendlines highlighted in the previous posts; on the 4-hour chart it followed the Simple Moving Average ribbon as well.
A triangle formation is being reached now.
Could be a Continuation Pattern upwards.
COPPER HG1! on a Continuation PatternCOPPER HG HG1 HG1! respected the Trendlines highlighted in the previous posts; on the 4-hour chart it followed the Simple Moving Average ribbon as well.
A triangle formation is being reached now.
Could be a Continuation Pattern upwards.
HG1 HG Copper fake or break?COPPER HG HG1
Like last week, just more confusing
Gann fan forming maybe?
Price might Fakeout and bounce again.
#Patience and wait for a sign.
If I had to bet now I would say Long but - again - let's wait for a clearer view.
COPPER HG1! deciding between Bulls and BearsCopper HG1! has been trading in a channel lately, and in a couple of trades we profited by the bounce on the descending trendline (magenta in the chart).
Indicators look still quite bearish while the triangle pattern might suggest a continuation pattern high as I think it will go this direction but let's wait for confirmation.
Be ready for action!
COPPER HG1! deciding between Bulls & BearsCopper has been trading in a channel lately, and in a couple of trades we profited by the bounce on the descending trendline (magenta in the chart).
Indicators look still quite bearish while the triangle pattern might suggest a continuation pattern high as I think it will go this direction but let's wait for confirmation.
Be ready for action!
Copper: Looking to Sell High and Watching for Bullish PatternsMy plan is to try and buy low and sell high, so I will be looking for a chance to short the completion of the bearish Cypher and then will begin to watch for bullish patterns on this time frame (so far butterfly, bat and cypher are all possibilities but we will see what develops).
Copper in quiet mode for now.Cooper finished initial correction as wave A, and is now in wave B. The B wave is expected to be choppy. Short could be started to build above 2.76. However, if it traded in/above the red box for a extended period of time,short should be covered. There is going to be big risk of impulsive extension.
INTERMARKET | Copper Suggests Short CATThe normalised chart of Copper (white) vs CAT (orange) would indicate a CAT short is a reasonable equity trade here...
TECHNICALS | Copper's Up-Trend BrokenWhilst diagonal trendlines are geometrically certain to break, they are also rather difficult to trade, looking very obvious ex-post, but hard to pull the trigger on ex-ante. In this case, I am inclined to take the signal given I have traded the vicissitudes of Copper quite well, particularly in the past 6 months.
