Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 3.9600
Pivot: 3.6885
Support: 3.5545
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Alternative scenario: Price may possibly head towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Hg1
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 3.9600
Pivot: 3.6885
Support: 3.5545
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 3.9600
Pivot: 3.6885
Support: 3.5545
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 3.9600
Pivot: 3.6885
Support: 3.5545
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bearish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 3.9600
Pivot: 3.6885
Support: 3.5545
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bearish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 3.9600
Pivot: 3.6885
Support: 3.5545
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 3.9600
Pivot: 3.6885
Support: 3.5545
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 28.2% Fibonacci lien is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 3.9600
Pivot: 3.6885
Support: 3.5545
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 28.2% Fibonacci lien is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Short CopperWe are short Copper. Take profit 3.40 and Stop Loss at 3.70 - a 1.9 Risk to reward ratio. There is a 50% profitability rate for this trade, however considering the prior signal for copper was profitable, the odds of 2 short signals producing a profit in a row is 25%. This trading signal also aligns with our seasonal sentiment of copper over the coming weeks.
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 3.6920
Pivot: 3.5545
Support: 3.3840
Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the Pivot at 3.5545, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is, before heading towards the support level at 3.3840, where the previous swing low is.
Alternative scenario: Price may go back up towards the resistance line at 3.6920, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
COPPER looks doomed on the long-term. Sell the rallies.Copper (HG1!) on the 1W time-frame appears to be repeating the previous major Bear Cycle that started in 2011/12. Based on this fractal analysis, the recent 1W rejection just below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) puts us at a proportionate level as on the February 06 2012 1W candle. Having rebounded on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) both on the July 11 and September 26 candles, we expect initially to reach it again and then rebound to make a Lower High and form a trend-line similar to that of 2012 - 2014 that made structured Highs to sell that took Copper to the 2.000 - 1.9360 Support Zone.
This long-term bearish pattern will get invalidated if the price breaks above the 0.618 Fibonacci extension, which was where (slightly below) the price was rejected on the February 06 2012 1W candle.
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Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 3.6920
Pivot: 3.5545
Support: 3.3840
Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the Pivot at 3.5545, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Alternative scenario: Price may go back up towards the resistance line at 3.6920, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Copper down 5 days in a row; 3.5545 is keyThe industrial metal topped on March 7th at 5.0395. However, for the next 3 months, HG sold off aggressively and made a July 15th low at 3.1315! Fears of increased inflation, increased interest rates, and increased Covid cases in China led to a fear of lack of future demand. Copper traded between 3.2430 and 3.7830 from mid-July and November 10th, when it gapped higher the day after a lower-than-expected US CPI reading. However, Copper was stopped just short of the 200-Day Moving Average near 3.9600 on November 14th, and it hasn’t looked back since. After a 5-day selloff, is copper ready to bounce?
News of additional lockdowns and the “take-back” of a loosening of restrictions caused Copper to continue lower. Copper traded to horizontal support on Monday near 3.5545. If this price breaks, copper may easily fall to 3.3625. The next horizontal support levels are at the lows from September 28th at 3.2430, then the lows from July 15th at 3.1315.
However, don’t be surprised if there is some profit-taking ahead of the long US holiday at the end of the week. Sellers will be looking to add to shorts if price does bounce. The first resistance level is at the August 26th highs of 3.893, then a confluence of resistance at:
1. the highs of November 14th
2. the 200 Day Moving Average,
3. the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the highs of June 3rd to the lows of July15th.
This resistance zone is between 3.9600 and 4.0250.
However, 3.5545 seems to be the “make or break” level for copper. If it breaks, copper could be on its way to the next support at 3.3625. But if it holds, it could bounce to the 4.000 area!
DR. Copper Trading The Bearish SequenceCopper on the weekly time frame appears to be carving out a five wave decline as the wave 4 high at 3.7930 holds a minimum downside objective of wave five equaling wave one provides a downside objective at 2.8435. The wave 4 on the daily time frame is creating a descending triangle pattern a break of 3.1380 warrant short exposure to target the wave 5 objective.
Copper Futures ( HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 3.5875
Pivot: 3.3815
Support: 3.2415
Preferred Case: The H4 price is in a downward channel and crossing below ichimoku cloud . The price may drop form the pivot at 3.3815, where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is to the 1st support at 3.2415 where the swing low and 78.6% fibonacci projection sits
Alternative scenario: If there is a price reversal, price will move to 3.5875, where the swing highs and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Copper analysis and ideas: Will bears come back?Copper prices may remain under pressure in the coming months due to investors' apprehension about China's growth prospects in the wake of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which disappointed the market.
Since September, copper prices have fluctuated within a relatively narrow range (3.2-3.6) after the earlier sharp declines occurred this year.
The long-term case for copper remains strong, as it is a key metal for the energy transition and global inventories are currently very low.
However, one of the main challenges it faces in the near future is its dependence on China’s economic growth.
The brown metal will remain under pressure unless China announces new growth-friendly economic policies to counteract the predicted slowdown in the country’s economy. However, the latest China Party Congress appears to prefer fostering sustainable growth and giving more importance to inequality, national security, and ideological matters.
Copper bull markets have historically coincided with periods of extraordinary global growth, driven primarily by China.
We have now reached a crossroads in that regard, and if China is unable to maintain high and consistent economic growth, copper will have to wait for a new global wave of coordinated investments toward the development of renewables and green energy. However, given the issues with inflation and rising interest rates that we are currently facing, it may still be years before the transition fully takes hold on a global scale. This could take the price of copper subdued for longer.
When we look at the daily chart, we can see that some bearish pressure was forming near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2022 range. Also the 50-day moving average has been a quite strong dynamic resistance later. The technical picture remains overall on the bearish foot, and copper needs to clear the 2022 trendline at around $3.75 and then cross the psychological $4.00 mark before materially inverting the downtrend.
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 3.5875
Pivot: 3.3815
Support: 3.2415
Preferred Case: The H4 price is in a downward trend and crossing below ichimoku cloud. The price is consolidating now, if the price can break the consolidating area, the price may drop form the pivot at 3.3815, where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is to the 1st support at 3.2415 where the swing low and 78.6% fibonacci projection sits
Alternative scenario: If there is a price reversal, price will move to 3.5875, where the swing highs and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Copper Futures (HG! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 3.7160
Pivot: 3.4495
Support: 3.2505
Preferred Case: The H4 price is in a downward trend. The price may drop form the pivot at 3.4495, where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement is to the 1st support at 3.2505 where the swing low sits
Alternative scenario: If there is a price reversal, price will move to 3.7160, where the swing highs are.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Copper Prices at Risk as Inverse Cup and Handle Takes Shape Copper prices are at risk of moving lower as an inverted handle takes shape following an inverted cup. The Inverse Cup and Handle pattern is an inherently bearish formation. A break below handle support would threaten the 3 psychological level.
Copper Futures ( HG1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish MomentumType: Bullish Momentum
Resistance: 3.5460
Pivot: 3.4400
Support: 3.3850
Preferred Case: The price is crossing the ichimoku cloud, if the price can break the cloud successfully, we can expect the price rise to the 1st resistance at 3.5460, where the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Alternative scenario: If bearish momentum persists, expect price to continue falling towards the first support level at 3.3850, where the previous swing low is.
Fundamentals: There is no major news.