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Short Term Copper 'SELLS' heading into Q4 of 2022I think it's becoming more and more clear that copper sells could extend into the last quarter of the year. Corrective wave 4 seems complete at 0.382 of the second Minor wave count and price is currently in an impulsive bear wave of a lower degree. We should therefore expect Copper prices to plunge to $2.96/lb(-15.4% decline) with some minor bullish price action to around $3.2/lb before eventually finding support at $2.7/lb, representing a -22.42% decline based on the current market price. As indicated in the chart, this short idea comes into play ONLY WHEN Copper prices drop BELOW $3.35/lb, which is the terminus of the minuette wave 1. Additionally, I strongly recommend you to review my long term forecast in profile. Here is a link to my previous Copper forecast. Disclaimer: The information provided here is only for educational purposes and should NOT be taken as investment advice.
OANDA:XCUUSDShort
by Timgucci
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance :3.5555 Pivot: 3.4755 Support : 3.3695 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price below the ichimoku indicator and RSI is moving within a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 3.4755, which is in line with the overlap support to the 1st support at 3.3695, where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and overlap support are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to the 1st resistance at 3.5555, where the overlap resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: No Major News
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Genesiv
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance :3.5565 Pivot: 3.4990 Support : 3.47325 Preferred Case: On the H4, with the Stoch is below 20, and the price is below ichimoku cloud, RSI is showing a descending trendline and Stoch is reversing from the resistance, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 3.4990, which is in line with tyhe 50% fibonacci retracement and overlap support to the 2st support at 3.4325, which is in line with the swing low, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to the 1st resistance at 3.5565, where the swing highs and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: No major news.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Genesiv
Copper analysis: Has the bear market rally ended already?After a 37% decline from its peak of $5.03 per pound in early-March 2022, copper has risen 14% since July's lows. However, the metal has recently been unable to overcome key resistance levels represented by the 50-day moving average and the descending channel trendline, as fresh worries about global growth slowdown and monetary policy tightening reemerged this week. Key macro events of the week: China, the world's largest consumer of copper, unexpectedly lowered lending rates in an effort to boost demand after reporting weaker-than-anticipated July numbers for industrial production (3.8% vs 4.6% expected), fixed asset investments (5.7% vs 6.2%), and retail sales (2.7% vs 5%). In the United States, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to -31.3 in August of 2022, from 11.2 in July. This is the lowest reading since May of 2020, and it indicates that business activity is weakening as a result of a collapse in new orders and shipments. Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index has fallen to its lowest level since October 2008, and the UK inflation rate has risen to double digits, the highest in 40 years, adding fuel to the fire and reigniting fears of a global recession. Ultimately, the Minutes of the FOMC's July meeting revealed that there is still a long way to go before declaring the war on inflation won, with members indicating that adopting a more restrictive policy stance was critical to avoiding a worsening of inflation expectations. This implies that the Fed's tightening is far from over. Copper technical analysis A bear market rally that is nearing exhaustion can be seen on the copper daily chart. The price action this week has been unable to break above both the bearish channel and the 50-dma, the RSI has tilted to the downside, and the MACD is getting close to a bearish crossover. A similar pattern occurred earlier this year, in the first week of June. After a 14% rebound from May's lows, copper briefly surpassed the 50-day moving average before beginning a severe, steep decline that lasted until mid-July. The RSI and MACD indicators both showed similar patterns to what we are seeing now. Bottom line, a copper's short-term pullback to the bearish channel's midline in the $3.2-3.3 area seems more likely, given the current technical setup. Breaking decisively the 50-dma and bearish channel resistances would invalidate the thesis and raise the odds of a $4.00 per pound test. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Capitalcom
HG1!7.28.22 I want to kill you something about price action And structure as a pertains to copper. I believe many traders who look at this won't recognize the importance of structure in this particular example, so it's important to look at this as a study around structure. The most immediate reason to look at this market is that it found support and a reversal pattern want a ranging market moving lower, and we would have been able to get into this market as a buyer when many Traders would think that the market would probably go lower... and that would have been a very expensive mistake. The market went up about 6 or $7,000 per contract at the reversal, so if money is your thing, the trade worked. and now I have exonerated myself from any further responsibility. Hopefully if anything important happens and I'm watching, I'll try to let you know. Learning a concept how to use structure for your trade decisions is the most important thing in this video in my opinion.
COMEX:HG1!
by ScottBogatin
Copper to $10+ by 2024. Easy. ~$4.50 today is fundamentally not the same as ~$4.50 in 2011 - the last time copper traded at these prices. QE was fresh off the block in 2011. today, it is standard operating procedure and although the fed talks a good game with tapering, we have yet to see any balance sheet reduction. Looking at this monthly chart, I noticed an interesting double bottom that hits its' target before entering price discovery between 1999-2006. the pattern is not perfect but it looks really similar to copper 2016-2022. Double bottom, target reached around $4.30, and now we're off to the races - price discovery. I think copper to $10 in under 2 years is a very safe bet. It doesn't threaten fiat as much as gold/silver and is manipulated less as a result. It is critical in many industries and the push for everything to go IoT will continue the increasing pressure on copper as well. Let's see how this one ages.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by chickenboye
Copper in free fall, but ...It is well known that due to the current circumstances of multifactors of the negative order, they are causing a Global crisis, which in turn cuts the industrial demand, clearly that happened in the past and is clearly illustrated in the last crisis ( "Subprime Crisis" ). we have clear then the "high ceilings" and the "low floors",. although there is copper falls without stopping, but remember that this element is essential for the industry in future mankind in electromobility plus also of electronics in general and industrial and so on. and that is why the deep zone would eventually be a good buying zone. , also the fall of this metal is closely related to the Chilean ( clp ) peso.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by ManuelRodriguez
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Copper at a key levelTrade Idea: Buying Copper Reasoning: Copper oversold and trading at a key 50% Fibonacci retracement level Entry Level: 3.5079 Take Profit Level: 3.6428 Stop Loss: 3.4763 Risk/Reward: 4.04:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
OANDA:XCUUSDLong
by Signal_Centre
Dr Copper is telling us deflation is comingAt the beginning of June I put out an idea about shorting Copper . The market didn't do me the favor to get up to my entry, as I ignored past resistance. Probably got a little greedy too. Currently copper is sitting at support and could bounce up to 4$, maybe even up to 4.25$. However in the long term, I see it go much much lower. In my opinion we are in a global recession, and probably even in a global depression. As interest rates and energy costs have risen rapidly, the demand for many things has gone down. We haven't seen the full effects of too much debt + lockdowns + WW3 + not enough energy production yet, but we are getting there. Copper going down is just the first step, and this could turn really really ugly. The 2006-2008 top on Copper looks pretty similar to this one. Huge rally up, consolidation, attempt to breakout, failure, massive collapse. This time around we had a shorter cycle due to the lockdowns + stimulus + low rates + ESG , but this situation is truly reversing. We have no lockdowns, no stimulus, high rates and the ESG movement is clearly losing steam. Overall volume is low and that's a sign that demand for Copper isn't all that high. It was mostly supply being low, and not demand being high. So how low could we go? The truth is that for some time this could be a bottomless pit. However, I believe the bottom will come in the 1.5-1.9 area, as the market needs to sweep the double bottom at 1.9. In terms of technical analysis this is the area anyone should be targeting. Once we get there, we could see a swift reversal as the Fed and all central banks are forced to cut rates and print money once again, in order to save the system from collapsing. They are stuck between a rock and hard place, and although they are doing their best to fight inflation now, they will soon be trying to fight deflation.
COMEX:HG1!
by BitcoinMacro
LONG ON COPPER - Will This Chart Save us From Recession Worries?It probably won't but a relief rally could be in play. Watch Our Bronze Age Bitcoin Video today: The Bronze Age followed the Stone Age and began around 4000 years ago. The Iron Age followed the Bronze Age and began around 3000 years ago. That's some time ago, yes. Could Bitcoin play a role as the beginning of a 'new age'? Sure.. it's a trustless system in a stupid planet with no trust between it's 'nations'. Funnily enough, I come from the island of Cyprus. 🏖️🌴🐬 Cyprus was famous in antiquity for its copper resources. In fact the very word copper is derived from the Greek name for the island, Kupros. Watch this if you like history: www.youtube.com Copper Price as an indication of what happens next: The price of copper is largely influenced by the health of the global economy. This is due to its widespread applications in all sectors of the economy, such as power generation and transmission, construction, factory equipment and electronics. Sometimes referred to as Doctor Copper , the base metal is seen as a reliable leading indicator. A rising market price suggests strong economic health, while a decline suggests the opposite. So we keep having many Copper related articles lately: Copper has entered a bear market , which may indicate a stronger chance that recession is coming. OUR ANALYSIS: We had shared with YOU, HERE a perfect short on Copper last summer: COPPER- Poised for a Correction At this stage we see Copper on MAJOR SUPPORT and this is only Good news: snapshot Hope it all makes some sense. If you Like the idea, we Like to see you Liking our post. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR
COMEX:HG1!Long
by FX_Professor
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