Smart Money Positioned to LONG Copper - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Copper (HG)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in HG if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy
Sentiment: Advisors very bearish is actually...bullish.
OI Analysis: Multi week down move has seen OI decrease drastically while Commercials have added to longs = bullish.
Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Bullish Spread Divergence
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & %R
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Hg_f
Copper (HG) Low Likely in Place with 5 Waves RallyShort Term Elliott Wave in Copper (HG) suggests the metal ended wave ((2)) pullback at 3.54. The metal has turned higher in wave ((3)). Rally from wave ((2)) low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((2)), wave (i) ended at 3.618 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 3.578. The metal extends higher in wave (iii) towards 3.694 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 3.667. Copper then extends higher again in wave (v) towards 3.711 which completes wave ((i)).
The metal then corrected in wave ((ii)) towards 3.622 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 3.627, wave (b) ended at 3.694, and wave (c) lower ended at 3.622. This completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree. The metal then extends higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 3.656 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 3.624. The metal rallies higher in wave (iii) towards 3.7315 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 3.676. The metal extends higher again in wave (v) towards 3.789 which completed wave ((iii)). Pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 3.686. Wave ((v)) higher unfolded as a diagonal and ended at 3.833. This completed wave 1 in higher degree. Wave 2 pullback is in progress now as a zigzag structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 3.735. While rally in wave ((b)) fails below 3.833, expect the metal to turn lower in wave ((c)) to complete wave 2. As far as pivot at 3.54 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
Copper (HG) Rallies in Nesting Impulse According to Elliott WaveCopper (HG) rally from 9.28.2022 low is unfolding as a nesting impulse Elliott Wave structure. A nest is a series of 1-2-((i))-((ii)) which is an extended version of an impulsive structure. Up from 9.28.2022 low, wave 1 ended at 3.96 and wave 2 pullback ended at 3.5410. Wave 3 is currently in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 3.929. The 1-hour chart below shows pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 3.708. The metal has extended higher again in wave ((iii)).
Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 3.865, and pullback in wave ii ended at 3.7985. The metal extends higher again in wave iii towards 3.988, pullback in wave iv ended at 3.932, and final leg wave v ended at 4.044 which completed wave (i). Pullback in wave (ii) then ended at 3.987. The metal extends higher again in wave (iii) towards 4.186 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 4.129. Expect wave (v) higher to complete soon with a few more high and that should complete wave ((iii)) in higher degree. Afterwards, the metal should pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from 1.4.2023 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 3.708 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
Short $COPPER We ended last week with a doji candle at the trendline from the 2011 highs and with RSI hovering around overbought levels.
Copper's weekly and monthly close will be foreshadowing for markets into US Presidential Elections on November 3, 2020.
Trade idea is a sell stop (or buy stop) above on a daily candle close below (or above) weekly doji candle.
For updates, follow me on Twitter @FomoFutures.
The Gundlach Indicator: In No Man's LandThe copper/gold ratio is traditionally viewed as a good proxy for bond yields, and that relationship has held mostly true of late. That said, we do not agree with all this exuberance over a topside "breakout". The ratio is sitting right in the middle of the recent range with heavily overbought RSI levels. Could go either way.