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Hidden Bearish RSI Divergence

SPY Continued Downside - Hidden DivergenceChart Even t: Bearish Divergences on multiple timeframes. Rising wedge pattern on 65m and lower timeframes. Confluence : Bearish Divergence on 65m timeframe. Hidden Bearish Divergence on daily timeframe. Rising Wedge pattern (bearish) on 65m and lower timeframes. MACD very wide. Volume decreasing. Death Cross moving average event occurred a few days ago. Price action is nearing old resistance levels along with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. RSI overbought on 65m timeframe. Trade Idea : Put Swings Contract Suggestions (depending on Monday's open) : Best: 4/8/22 450P Riskier 4/6/22 450P Riskiest 4/1/22 450P I will likely buy both the 4/8 and the 4/1 contracts, heavily weighted to the 4/8 contracts to allow this time for this move to play out.
AMEX:SPYShort
by cloud9futures
3
Inverted/reverse cup and handle pattern - BTCThis could have been either a H&S or Inverted Cup & Handle. Either way, confirmation of this pattern with a breakout below 59k could see a measured downside move to high 48's. This matches up precisely with the 38.2% Fib from the JUL low, and would be a perfect re-test of the medium term trend & 2/1 Gann line. By the time it gets there, it will be a good bounce on the 200 EMA also. All this coupled with yesterday's confirmation of Hidden Bearish Divergence on the monthly RSI points to a decent pull back end point. The completion of a Minor wave 1 down would be confirmed by a strong bounce at this level. Further confirmation of a downside Minor 5 wave will be found at the possible top of wave 2, back up at resistance in the low-mid 60's. If the downside pattern ends up being invalidated later on, this bounce point at 48-50 is still likely in the mean time. We'll See.
Short
by syncro23
Monthly RSI Hidden Bearish Divergence confirmation.Lets not forget this little bad boi either! Hidden divergence is indeed considered an indication of trend continuation, but have a look at the bigger picture here. Eeeeeeven if BTC remains bullish on the macro trend, this confirmation of hidden bearish divergence could see a comparatively massive pullback. This would fit the "Expanded Flat" paradigm mentioned in my other post today. After a redonkulous 91 level on the monthly RSI one could expect the old dog might be a bit clapped out and in need of a rest. With 2 touches on each side, Bitty appears to be in a positively gigantic Ascending Broadening Wedge. A 3rd tap on macro trend support due to Hidden Bearish Divergence could see the asset return to 15 or 20k... or LESS! The Ascending Broadening Wedge is known to be a continuation pattern, so if this scenario plays out the measured upside move is astronomical. But honestly, this will take years and years and years. A lot can happen to change the course of history in that time, so who knows!? Food for thought anyway.
Short
by syncro23
5
NDX/SPY Continues to look like a bull trapI have been watching this formation develop for what feels like a year now and it is slowly grinding its way through and it seems we are finally on the verge of having the performance begin Generally speaking, since the dotcom crash NDX has gone up faster than SPY and so that has made it the bet for people to "just by the index" to make their gains. But now with this long term pattern forming it is signaling that NDX isn't the main bet to make. There are two main propositions from this formation: either SPY will start to outperform NDX to the upside or given the situation of the broader markets, NDX is going to lead the charge downward in a recession. Given how much negativity we see in the system combined with the topping pattern I think it will be the downside. If you compare the NDX/SPY chart to NDX you can see that these top formations on the pair do predict a dip on NDX. So far these dips on NDX have been great buying opportunities because they have been higher lows. Eventually NDX is going to print a lower low. After that lower low we are at risk for a lower high and that sets the bearish trend. Imbedded in the fib extension on the main chart is the notion that we are facing an ABC correction on NDX/SPY and we will see a C wave that is 1.618 or greater than the length of Wave A. If we look at the chart the last bit of serious price action has been between the 2.618 and 3 extension levels and so over the course of the next leg down I will be watching for NDX/SPY to chop its way down there for another consolidation. I am not sure most people are emotionally prepared for the long term targets. I have been watching for it and I am not sure I am emotionally prepared for this. People that buy the index to hold, whether it be retirement accounts or something else might not get to break even for over a decade. Last time NDX/SPY had a bull trap NDX went down 80% from here. Here is the annoying thing, both NDX and the pair had a bull trap. Right now NDX has just got done setting an all time high. If both the NDX/SPY pair and NDX were both looking at bull traps I think more people would take this seriously. Lots of questions remain unanswered if the broad conclusion of this post is correct. Will any bear market still be multi-year? What will happen to the money supply generally? Interest rates? All hard to predict if anything resembling the scope of what I think will happen will happen.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by This_Guhy
4
Volume and MACD situation on BTC shows signs of weaknessVolume is used to confirm our biases on chart patterns and trends and lots of studies are done on how different chart formations are confirmed with volume. Likewise when looking for a breakout people often look at the volume to consider if it will be maintained or if a chance of throwback is likely. Generally people look at volume by time and the OBV does that well. On Balance Volume Many volume analysis look for bullish or bearish divergences and you can also put some moving averages on the volume to see what is going on for the last so many periods. Here I have the 10, 20 and 100. Much like any moving averages crosses can provide useful signals. This volume situation is pretty bearish. Price has to go a long way to the upside for the OBV to get above the 100 EMA long enough for the 10 and 20 to get above the 100 again and complete a bullish stack. Significant rallys are possible with the OBV below the 100 and the OBV, 10 and 20 can do a lot of braiding and changing of position but large dumps are very probable afterwards. It also a bearish sign that the on balance volume is setting a lower high while price action is setting a higher high with some of these topping candles. The candlestick pattern isn't complete yet but it is staged bearish. Volume Profile Visible Range Right now price is stalling at this volume node. It isn't particularly large but it does coincide with previous support around %49.5k and the 0.786 fib retracement level (not shown). The center of the next node of volume support is lower than many analysts I listen to are calling at about $35k To me that isn't a solid target despite it being the top of the Value area as both major trendlines I see that could provide support are way benign that. The MACD The MACD is showing a lot of hidden bearish Divergence. The main chart does a decent job but below is the MACD settings developed by Mr. Asprey after he did some tinkering. I have split the histogram and signal line into two different charts to view the divergence more easily. Both are very divergent. This is important because hidden bearish divergence is the best indicator that a bull trap is in play. I was using hidden bearish divergence when I was predicting a bigger spill than most prior to the dump in early May on the daily chart. Once again the chart is the MACD-AS with the signal and histogram separated. It does not take a lot to rip a uptrend to shreds. Closing thoughts Lots of things look bullish. On chain metrics look bullish with the Hash ribbons flashing a buy. People looking at commitment of traders also see a lot of buy interest. Lots of coins have been taken off of exchanges. All these things are generally fundamentally bullish. But the Volume situation does not seem to back up some of the fundamental bullishness. The MACD is also in a vulnerable situation. All this makes analysis complicated. We might see a vicious sell off and a rapid rebuy like the Covid 19 dump. We might see lots of people loose interest in BTC specifically while other coins stay strong. Truth be told I am pretty uncomfortable with the disagreement in the charts and the fundamental analysis. Makes me think I am missing something and I don't like it. But right now it seems to be a bad time to be recklessly long to me. I do have a small position on short with a low level of leverage.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
7