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Higherhigh

DXY - Further Upside Following FOMC ? Looking at the fundamentals this week, we have the CPI data as well as the Core CPI data being released on Wednesday with positive forecasts as well as the FOMC Meeting Minutes later that evening. We then have news affecting a variety of currency pairs as we prepare for the OPEC Meetings, otherwise known as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This group is responsible for 40% of the worlds oil supply which is a substantial % holding, so we can expect major volatility, CAD of course is the most effected pair correlating with Crude Oil. As well as this overall news occurring in the world, we have the PPI data release on Thursday with another positive forecasting. Jumping to technicals and we are still in this ascending channel that I have shown in a prior article, however, looking at a more refined channel ( this isn't hi-lighted on the chart ), but if you draw out another ascending trend line from the higher wick of the 9th of October in line with the higher wick of the 2nd of January, 15th of February and extended into the future, we can see smaller refined ranging price channel. Looking at this channel, as well as the monthly key level, we can see we are running out of steam and I believe we can see a pullback before going long on this DXY. The 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci level is hi-lighted in purple on the chart as well as the 71% Fibonacci level is laying on the weekly key level. We had a lower low prior and if price forms a lower high at this current price, we should be set to go short, HOWEVER, we have many significant higher low swing points and thus, I don't see structure as broken just yet. We also have a new potential Head & Shoulder pattern which will confirm price retracing and falling to the downside to test the weekly key level of 96.25 before going long. With this in mind, Gold should push up, allowing our targets of 1304 being met and a potential reversal/short I anticipate. My bias for the year has been bearish for Gold and I still predict a large downside move to 1260 price region. So this can set us up for a high R/R setup. Drawing a counter trend line from the head to shoulder, we have a 3 anchored wicks showing some favourable downside potential. I have a current neutral standpoint on this Dollar Index, but I expect price to fall before a continuation to the upside. As always, take risk/money management into consideration and follow these news events as volatility is expected and we can definitely capitalise on the volume around these news events.
TVC:DXY
by KeownArcher
Bitcoin Freight Trains Through Major Resistance Levels.Bitcoin update: After months of grind, the range resistance has finally been taken out in a spectacular short squeeze. Andrew described the signs that were leading up to this 1000 point move in 30 minutes in one of his recent articles about the coin float quietly being removed from this market. Coupled with a shrinking float, there are the participants who insist on shorting this market with a ton of leverage which builds up potential buying pressure, very similar to shaking a soda can before opening it. Now that Bitcoin has caught everyone's attention, it is time to put this move into perspective in order to better capitalize on the coming of a more supportive environment. My recent articles for weeks have been talking about two scenarios: 1) retrace to the 3500 area OR 2) Break out and look for momentum continuation. We don't pretend like the marketers do, instead we follow best practices and WAIT for the market to choose, and boy did it choose. The 4K resistance area was cleared, and so was the 4500 area bearish trend resistance, and even the 5K psychological resistance all in about 30 minutes. Now that's decisive confirmation. Based on our strategy, this market is no longer range bound and is NOW bullish. As for swing trades, we look for momentum continuation patterns to get long. This means we now WAIT for price to retrace to the 4300 or 4150 areas which are the old resistance / new support levels in play. As far as profit targets, this move highlights the 5K psychological resistance which price retreated from, AND the 5245 to 5812 resistance zone (.618 area relative to the 6K high). Just like the 4150 area used to be, these new levels are where we will aim to lock in profits and measure reward/risk from after a new swing trade signal appears. This surprise move also reinforces a very important lesson that many new traders completely miss. There is very little you can do to catch a 1000 point move in 30 minutes, EVEN if you are watching it unfold. It also looks easy after the fact, but anyone that has more than a couple of years of experience can tell you otherwise. This is why it is so important to employ MULTIPLE strategies. We don't just swing trade, because WE KNOW the limitations, we also carry inventory and have carefully cost averaged into a position with a cost basis of around 4300. All while being criticized and ridiculed when Bitcoin was pushing lows. Our performance record speaks for itself, and it has less to do with reading charts and MORE to do with patience. In summary, after a long and tedious grind, Bitcoin has broken out of it range bound situation and is poised to usher in the next bull market. We don't get excited or emotional OR buy more at the highs. We continue to do what we have been doing the whole time: focusing on higher probability setups rather than HOPING FOR HOME RUNS. While the gamblers were getting faked out or squeezed, we waited patiently for the market to provide clarity. Here it is, and we have a healthy capital base to work from.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
25
Bitcoin: 495 Pts After 14 Day Swing Trade. Bitcoin update: Our second target of 4120 was reached today locking in a 495 pt gain on the second half of a position of a swing trade idea that we shared with our followers on February 9th. Throughout the entire management period, we were very clear in our emails and chat room posts that we had no intention of exiting the trade early, as long as the market cooperated. And it was all based on probabilities and price action. Nothing else. Taking out the 4K resistance provides further confirmation that this space is recovering. The price structure since the 3150 area lows has been increasingly supportive with the establishment of higher lows and shallow retrace periods. Like I wrote in my previous Bitcoin analysis: higher lows often lead to higher highs. There is no need to over complicate this. We continue to point out that until price takes out the 4600 area resistance, we will stay cautiously optimistic. This means as structure improves, we recognize that the broader trend is more neutral than bullish. A retrace back to the 3600 to 3700 area is very reasonable, especially now that price has reached the 4K psychological resistance area. The most challenging aspect of this trade (which we will cover in our webinar) was holding through the noise around the high 3800s. There were moments when price action appeared to be likely to retrace, especially with the appearance of a bearish pin bar. Two things kept us in the trade: we had exited HALF of our position at 3825 which gave us MORE flexibility and confidence to hold since our risk was reduced, and second, price action NEVER generated a clear sell signal. Usually if a market is going to sell off, it sells off fast, it does not linger for too long. In summary, NOW is NOT the time to be buying, it is a time to be locking in profits. I can’t iterate enough how important using predetermined profit targets are. And more importantly knowing how to recognize and adjust when the market negates your original trade premise. Simplicity and sticking to best practices is what helped us minimize our losses, even though we were constantly being criticized for staying on the sidelines more often than not. We are now in a position to fully capitalize on the HIGHER probability environment that is developing, while others will have to expend their energy and resources just to get back to break even. It is the lack of patience and conviction that ruin accounts more than lack of ability. And these traits come by emotional intelligence and experience, not from lines on a chart (or the RSI).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
symmetrical bullpennant breakout confirmed/higher high on 4hr We wanted to see the price action rise above this horizontal purple line to achieve a higher high on the 4hr chart and with the current 4hr breakout candle we have seen just that. A great sign for the bulls. However to securely reach a higher high on the chart that really matters(the 1 day chart). We're gonna need to get price action above this pink horizontal line just above that. The breakout target of this bullflag should have us reaching that higher high no problem plus we still have the price target to reach from the green falling wedge which is slightly above that too...that helps increase the odds even though falling wedge breakouts often don't reach their full breakout targets. There's also the large tan symmetrical triangle we have been above for quite some time now odds are good we will trigger its breakout and reach its breakout target. Only thing that could stop us from getting above that pink higher high on the 1 day chart horizontal line is the fact that we haven't had a higher high on the 1 day chart since the very beginning of the bear market and they always say the trend is your friend until the end. That's also why if we do trigger a breakout here above that higher high the trend may indeed finally be starting to reverse...we will of course want to see it followed up with a higher daily low and then one more consecutive daily higher high to be certain the trend is changing....or even a capitulation plummet right after this higher high and after that follow it up with a higher high/higher low/higher high sequence on the daily chart....either way to me it feels like the end of the bear market is truly near.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
Looking like ltc set to underperform bitcoin in near-termLitecoin passed a key level on the $LTCUSD chart earlier today at $48.31. This level acted as support numerous times on the weekly chart and came into play as resistance numerous times. After a number of tests, price broke above but has since slowed its increase. Litecoin outperformed bitcoin on this move to bring it to new highs against bitcoin. The increase has since slowed and bitcoin is trading near support making me believe the odds are in favour of bitcoin outperforming litecoin in the near term. This combined with a bearish divergence forming on the litcoin versus bitcoin 4-hour chart is enough reason for me to take a short position on ltc against btc. I am keeping the stop fairly tight here as I do not want to risk litecoin moving away quickly to the upside especially if it increases past 0.013 and near a new high. The entry for the position was 0.01294 with a stop loss of 0.0135 and a profit target of 0.01255. 0.01252 is the first trouble area where I would expect support to come into play so I will leave the profit target slightly above.
LShort
by AdaptiveAnalysis
BTC Update! Continuing to watch for weekly trend changeSorry everyone, been away for almost 2 weeks now! Last chart post was back on Feb 8th and BTC had set its higher low at $3338 and we were watching to see how it would bounce. Knowing full well anything under $4239 is just another lower high on our weekly chart. Well 11 days later and here we are, same chart with minimal change. Bulls have pushed price up from $3700 11 days ago to now reaching our high at $3970 today. Solid move by the bulls across many names the past 11 days but we continue to stay cautious on BTC and market in general. That is why I zoomed out back then to weekly chart and while it was nice to see a higher low finally setting on BTC for weekly, a higher high is what bulls really want to see to try and start to shift this trend. If the bulls fail and only get a lower high then most likely scenario is an equilibrium pattern. Bulls would try to defend the higher low at $3338 and establish another higher low and then seek to break to higher highs. Let's see what rest of the week brings and if bulls have enough strength to test $4239 or if the bears take price back down. Personally would be fine seeing a lower high here at $3970 or low $4,000s even as long as the bulls can then get a higher low perhaps in the $3600-3800 range and then push for higher highs. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
Upward break of broadening wedge creates higher high + inv h&s After what seemed like neverending volumeless sideways movement, we finally broke up bullishly and we have now hit the breakout target of the descending broadening wedge give or take a quarter of a pip and have also hit a very strong former resistance line just below the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders that we are now finishing the right shoulder on. In achieving the higher high we also invalidated a possible normal head and shoulders pattern by going above the peak of its head. interestingly enough the diamond patterns bullish break target was the exact same as the broadening wedges breakout pattern which created perfect confluence of the wedge and the diamond bottom. If we can manage to continue the higher high trend and trigger this inverted head and shoulders pattern 5.2k is looking very possible. Of course yet another inverted head and shoulder fakeout is just as possible right now so wise to set smart stoplosses close to the neckline.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
1
BTC Update! Bulls beat EMA resistance now want it as support!Last chart we were looking to see which direction BTC broke either Sunday or Monday. The break came Sunday and bulls were able to get to a new high off their recent lows. $3643 is now the resistance to watch and bulls have a higher low down at $3254 they now want to protect. Bulls were able to get above 12 and 26 EMA resistances on 4 hour chart with the move yesterday but continue to remain under the 12 EMA on daily chart. Since pulling back here the bulls are seeking another higher low and appear to be try to hold 12 EMA on 4 hour as support with bulls buying up anything when it dips below 12 EMA. But anything above $3254 would give a nice higher low and then bulls would seek another higher high to try and shift the trend. Bears have covered a significant amount of shorts over the last couple of days but never saw enough pressure from the bulls to create a short squeeze and really get BTC running higher. The overall lack of a significant/sustained bounce from our lows has me continue to think long term our low is not set but as one who only trades bullish, sure would like a shift in the trend to give the bulls a little rally even if only for a week or two. But will wait for bulls to show some proof they aren't going to just lay down and let the bears take right back over this week. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats