Get started

Higherhigh

ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: That Was Fast.ETHUSD Update: 304 trend resistance taken out quickly while price is holding above the level, on top of the fact that this level also corresponds to a recent lower high which means momentum is now decisively bullish. I wrote about this level in my previous report, but I did not think it would be compromised so quickly. Like I always say, anything can happen. The question is what to do now? In my previous report I wrote about being flat until the market could show clearer signs of stability. Well this type of move opens some new possibilities. My plan now is to wait for a retrace and then buy back in on the first reversal back up. I am not going to buy into these highs as bullish as the market looks at the moment. The first level I am now watching for is 297 which is the minor .382 of the current swing, and if price happens to push below that, then I will be watching the 287 to 281 zone which is the .618 area of this recent bullish move. Keep in mind price may present an even more shallow retrace, so I will be prepared to buy back in with a 30% position if I see signs that make sense. The fact that the 304 level has been taken out implies further strength ahead and this move can be the initial leg of a retest back into the 330s (the one I was trying to get long for to begin with). Also watch out for the fakes, there have been numerous, An example would be if price retraces to 297, shows a reversal, runs up to 305, and then retraces back to 287. It can happen. So if I manage to get long, and price starts behaving like this, I will get out quickly, because I can always get back in. This is not an easy process, but that is how some environments are. You have to roll wit the punches. Also for those who have been shorting, as I wrote in my previous report, the break of this level is a clear sign of momentum change. Just a heads up. Shorting (which I avoid in these markets) is now higher risk as resistance levels are more likely to break and supports hold. If for any reason price decides to retrace further than the 280s, then the 270 level is one that I will be watching for a larger time frame double bottom reversal. I do not expect price to retrace that low, but that is my plan IF it chooses to. Also 270 is going to be a reference point for risk as well. It is actually an extension level measured from the 286 range low and proved to be the bottom of this impressive rally. In summary, this surprise up swing is a signal of momentum change back to bullish. The fact that the 304 resistance has been taken out makes it reasonable to expect higher prices in the near term. Things change fast in these markets, and being able to adapt quickly is an important part of short term trading. Upon a retrace of 297, or the 287 to 281 zone I will be looking for reversals to go long. I will evaluate the risk at that time, but I can tell you now, I will probably be using the 270 area as my initial stop. Also if I manage to get back in and price is not cooperating, I will look to get out quickly as well. In a bullish momentum environment, price should not be falling apart, even if it fakes out, it should be shallow. Remember we are not missing the train ride, because it is not going to the 330 area in a straight line. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
40
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Euphoria Prices.BTCUSD Update: New high made at 5420 which is just above the 5385 level which happens to be the 1.618 extension of the entire recent bullish swing. This is pure greed and euphoria in action, and for those who do not know yet, a hot market usually cannot sustain this rate of momentum. I have been cautious up to these highs and I am staying away from any new swing trades in this market at these levels. Yes, new all time highs are certainly a bullish sign, but risk of retrace is way too high at the moment. Based on the current structure, the first reasonable level for a normal retracement is 4914 (.382 of current bullish swing). Price can retrace to this level and this trend would still be intact. And the 4914 is a minor support, because the structure measured is the most recent swing. IF this level is broken, 4437 is the next reasonable level for a retest (.382 of entire bullish swing). This is the level is where I would like to see price stabilize and show reversal patterns for a possible swing trade opportunity. As long as price maintains this level, an attempt to retest the high would be within reason and worth taking the risk in my opinion (IF the market offers the opportunity). The fact that price has gone up so quickly after working its way to the 5K level is a bearish sign because often this is when the majority of the "active" crowd is long. To be more specific, "majority of the active crowd" means the current population of investors who are trading in and out of this market regularly (which is a relatively small market) and when this crowd is mostly long, bullish momentum is likely to dry up. This is what I mean when I use the EXPRESSION "There is no one left to buy" which is not to be taken literally. The size of the candle on the larger time frames is what points to this condition. People have been writing to me about being short, and this is a very tough market to outright short. One way to consider benefiting from a significant retrace would be to buy alt coins against BTC. In theory they should rise as BTC gets cheaper. This is an investment strategy which means buy and hold. I do not have any specific recommendations as far as which alt coins to choose, but I would say if you own alt coins, now would be a good time to add to your core positions since they will be cheap relative to BTC. In summary, it will be interesting to see how investors behave after the forks are out of the way next week. As these markets mature, the coin relationships will change. Just like a month ago when BTC sold off, everything followed, and that relationship has slowly unwound, but that does not mean it won't come back. As traders we cannot expect anything (especially in these markets) to be fixed, or consistent when it comes to relationships. This is why technical analysis is so helpful because no matter what happens, price will still find support and resistance, it will still trend, and it will unfold in formations that offer some clues as to where price is more likely to go next. It is all a matter of evaluating new information and adjusting. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
56
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Breakout Requires Followthrough.ETHUSD Update: Breakout attempt at 300 happening as I write this. Price needs to push above 312 to signify a successful bullish breakout. If this market can mount that kind of rally, then the next retrace should offer a reasonable buying opportunity for a swing trade. Price action has been slow around the 300 level if you are waiting for a swing trade. Sure if you are day trading, there are frequent opportunities to go long and short in this environment, but I am not writing about that. The slow breakout is still suspect, and still has plenty of opportunity to fail, which is why I will not open any swing trades at these levels. My trading plan is very well defined and is focused on minimizing risk, and it prevents me from taking any new positions at this time. What will be interesting is if price can push its way above 312. A close above this price will provide some new information about the underlying strength of this market. It would be a clear higher high which signifies that the longer term trend (which has been bullish this whole time) is beginning to assert itself again. In this scenario, I will be prepared to take the next long signal for a swing trade which means the market will have to retrace to a new higher low support. The 280s and 290s would make sense because they have been a tough resistance, which in the new bullish scenario, should act as a new support (inversion). What many less experienced participants do not realize is that double tops are not always precise. The second high may go slightly higher than the first, and then fail. That is still considered a double top and also why 312 is so significant in terms of showing follow through, If price fails from this level, the next support I am watching is the 269 to 260 area which is an overlap of the .382 of the entire bullish structure (from 198 low) and the .618 of the recent bullish swing. Great place for a reversal because if a higher low forms in that area, it implies continued strength and that is a condition that I am willing to put on a trade if the price action makes sense at the time. In summary, this market has built some bullish structure, and now it must prove that it has enough momentum to continue higher. As I have written about before, the 300 level is a make or break area and the market chooses which way it goes not you or me. As price action traders, we are identifying clues and waiting until factors line up for a trade that offers attractive reward relative to the risk taken. I am not trading these coins to make 5 points here and 5 points there. There is nothing wrong with that as long as you have the time to be in front of your computer. For people who do not understand my swing trade strategy, I am looking for broader moves without taking a large amount of risk and in order to do that, I have to wait until factors line up based on the criteria of my plan. It may not get me into every movement, but it also keeps me out of tons of noise which helps me to preserve my capital and my sanity in the long run. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
37
Time for a shoot up to the upside (Higher high)??Price pulled back & made a higher low, watch for price close above daily resistance 1.1750.. On daily time frame looks like a hammer candle is forming showing price may be ready to shoot to the upside & make a new higher high! Hopefully we see the dollar lose more strength as expectations where not met to strengthen it this week.. Still in a solid uptrend I would be careful if your looking to short this pair! : ) Trade with care !
Long
by Profound_Ambition
GBPUSD DAILYPrice making higher highs & higher lows. Nothing indicating a trend reversal price came down to 61 8 zone / Daily support and respected it. I expect the US dollar will get weaker as well & am looking for a higher high to form @134.50 zone. Nice setup here entered long with a small entry for now & will be adding more on the way! possible 500 pip trade here will be watching closely : ) Drop a like & comment if you agree or have any comments to add! Thanks! Trade with care!!
Long
by Profound_Ambition