Get started

Higherlow

Please Feed The Bears. Bitcoin Needs More Buying Pressure.Bitcoin price action has produced a clear bullish reversal pattern in a location where probability favors such a formation. The inverted head and shoulders, although not triggered yet, serves as a pretty good idea as to where this market is going over the next couple of weeks at least. A decisive close above the 7600 level, followed by 7950 should stimulate enough momentum to carry price to the next relevant resistance of 8500. I am sharing the following technical points to provide perspective, context and clarity for the community. This is also the information that we are using to guide our decisions for our recent swing trade long. 1. The recent 6850 area swing low not only establishes a higher low formation (higher lows often lead to higher highs), but it also serves as the right shoulder of a broad inverted head and shoulders formation that began to develop in November. A break and close above the 7950 area and this bullish reversal pattern is confirmed and in play. 2. Yesterday's candle (inside bar) has triggered a new buy signal once price took out 7400. Follow through continues to be limited because of the tendencies of a range bound environment, but reward/risk on the bigger picture clearly FAVORS LONGS. 3. A close above 7600, followed by 7950 is likely to stimulate a flurry of margin liquidations (shorts following their small time frame charts who are now caught). This buying pressure, along with break out buyers can take price to 8500 or even the low 9Ks in a matter of hours. 4. Bitcoin has been in a corrective consolidation since June (this is NOT a trend environment). The price structure since then is now showing the potential completion of a broad Wave 2 (relative to the 3150 to 14K impulse wave). IF Bitcoin confirms this (by taking out 10,300) then a broad Wave 3 is likely in play. Such a wave can take price to 20K and higher in a matter of weeks or months. This scenario also aligns well with the May mining reward halving event. 5. IF the 6800 higher low support is compromised for whatever reason, it will negate the current bullish scenarios outlined here, and call for adjusting expectations for a RANGE BOUND market to continue further. It is important to keep time frames and magnitude of expectations in perspective. A break of 6800 will NOT change the bigger picture trend to bearish. 6. Our profit targets will continue to sit in the mid 7Ks, 8Ks and low 9Ks. 10K is the next MAJOR resistance level, and if Bitcoin is going to produce a large magnitude fake out, that is where it is most likely to unfold. Our goal is to take smart risks and reduce them as much as possible. Exiting 1/3 of our position at each predetermined target accomplishes this goal. (Small bites are what to lead to a positive return over the long run, NOT home runs). For those that watched my recent video update and have been following this swing trade, we got long about two weeks ago on a break of an inside bar at 7250. There has been a lot of noise and sell signals since then that have gone NO WHERE. The point is this: the effectiveness of trend following strategies is going to be subpar on the larger time frames because the expectations that they produce are not aligned with the type of environment Bitcoin is in at the moment. This means sell signals carry no weight because they are appearing near the LOW of a broad consolidation. Selling near range lows is low probability herd behavior. Overall, timing is all about letting the market act first, and then adjusting to the new probabilities as they develop. Just like in Texas Holdem, the players who act early in a hand give away important information to those to act after them (who can then make more informed decisions). Letting the market act first allows you to capitalize on the "reactive" order flow, or those who trade on emotion and impulse. This reactive liquidity is made up of the participants who are willing to take the other side of high probability setups. If everyone operated in a rational way, overbought and oversold conditions would never exist and neither would any opportunity. Want to improve your results? Learn psychology.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
20
Bitcoin: 8500 Still On Radar But 6850 Must Not Break.Bitcoin is poised to break out, but needs to clear the high 7600's decisively in order to clear the way for 8500. Price action continues to gyrate within a very wide support zone and the development of the recent failed low structure is exactly the type of broader reversal pattern that we want to see in such an area. The point of this article is to shed light on the technical points that we consider when adjusting to new market information and to provide some broader context and perspective for the community. I want to thank Reece from Australia, Charvey, Troy Brave (actually met him back in March of 2018!), and everyone else who shared positive comments and constructive feedback about my recent video update. My goal is to publish one of those each week which will serve as an update to these written articles. So here are our technical points: 1. The broad failed low formation between the low 7Ks and the recent 6450 low is a reversal pattern that has materialized within a major support zone. This is what a market bottom looks like and IF price breaks major resistance levels like 8500, 10,300 and etc., then this structure will confirm the broad Wave 2 bottom that we have been WAITING over 6 months for. 2. There is minor support around the whole number 7K. As long as price can maintain this support, it is likely to squeeze higher. The next minor resistance is in the high 7600's. A decisive break and close above this level can stimulate enough short covering to take price to the 8500 resistance level in a matter of hours or days. 3. Can Bitcoin test lower prices? Anything can happen, BUT price would have to close below 6850 in order to prompt a retest of the 6550 reversal zone boundary. Any bullish reversal pattern in these areas would offer compelling swing trade and position trade opportunities based on the criteria of our strategies. 4. Recent candlestick price action (the bearish pin bar followed by the bullish pin bar) is noise. It is the levels (price location) that carries more weight in this situation and they continue to favor bullish reversals in terms of probability. (In other words, shorts are very HIGH risk). 5. Until the 8500 and 10,300 levels are taken out, Bitcoin price action is still within the boundaries of the "corrective consolidation" that we have seen since the 14K peak. This is relevant because it keeps our expectations within the range of tendencies associated with a range bound environment (lack of follow through, erratic price action, low quality signals, etc). Everyone wants to hear 20K by tomorrow, but price structure does not agree YET. 6. We have preset profit targets in the high 7Ks, mid 8Ks and low 9Ks, BUT any large time frame sell signal that appears near a major resistance level will prompt us to consider a manual exit. In a trending environment it is usually better to let a winner run, the problem is Bitcoin is NOT in a trending environment. As the market unfolds and provides new information, perspective adjustment is necessary BUT that is not the same as reacting to new information. "Reacting" such as jumping into a new position, or exiting a position is usually motivated by fear. And fear is the key stimulant for the majority of market participants (the herd). Adjusting perspective means figuring out your decisions or actions in advance: "IF Bitcoin does this, I will do this." In the second example, you are not reacting out of fear because you have evaluated the possibilities in advance and have an idea of what is reasonable to expect. This is not a game about being "right" or predicting the future. It is about managing risk, that's it. Our strategy can produce a string of losses (which it has) but only requires one or two wins to get back to even or ahead. That is how you win when it comes to short term timing. That is why we gauge probabilities based on the price information the market provides and ADJUST them as new information becomes available. Eventually these probabilities align with our reward/risk criteria and we can justify a trade. This is a process, and it has no easy button. Have a happy, healthy and productive new year and thank you all who have been supportive of my efforts on this platform. Let's make the new year a more informed one.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
15
Next stop 6800? BTC Update Bitcoin is still under this famous zone between 7221 and 7273. This zone, as well as the 7600 level, has been a problem since the beginning of December. BTC briefly went briefly above this level and peaked at 7445 before falling back below 7200 and is currently trading at 7174. Indicators? The daily and 4h technical situation is negative with a sales signal given by the WaveTrends. On a shorter time horizon, the indicators indicate a possible short term recovery. What are the possibilities of evolution? The situation on the longer timeframes indicates that a test of the 7000 or even the 6800 is likely. This will be an excellent entry point as well as a higher low if BTC bounces from this level. Otherwise, a retest of the last lows at 6400 will be very likely. If the BTC explodes upwards ignoring its technical situation, a retest of the area marked by the red rectangle on the chart will be a good opportunity to open a long position. In the meantime, stay safe guys!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by ArnJuDQ
Bitcoin: Buy Signal In The Bullish Reversal Zone.Bitcoin break out is NOW in play. We shared a LONG swing trade idea with our followers yesterday which triggered at 7250. Although the stop is wide, the magnitude of the reversal structure that is confirmed is likely to lead to a test of the 8500 area resistance at LEAST. The goal of this article is to highlight the key technical points that will guide our decisions as the trade unfolds. 1. The large outside bar off of the 6450 area low followed by a series of narrow inside bars is a CLEAR sign of strength. While follow through may continue to be slow at times, short squeeze (margin liquidations) momentum is likely to lead price beyond 8K, and reasonably into the mid 9Ks over the next week. 2. The general probability of the location (7275 to 5464 support zone) favors LONGS. And now there is a failed low formation off of the 6450 level. This confirms what we have been saying all long: this is NOT a location to sell. 3. The 7600 area presents the first minor resistance. A decisive close beyond this point will prompt us to add to our long term inventory. Averaging into an improving market is a more conservative practice compared to averaging into a weak market. 4. 6850 is the next minor support. IF Bitcoin retraces to this area, and prints a reversal pattern, it will prompt us to take another swing trade. (Swing trades are SEPARATE from inventory positions). With strength clearly returning, in theory price should not test much lower than that (IF it breaks 6850, we adjust our perspective). 5. Bitcoin has a long way to go before it confirms this, but the 6450 level may be the BOTTOM of the corrective consolidation that has contained price action for 6 months. IF 10,300 is taken out, followed by 14K, the next bullish impulse (broad Wave 3) is most likely in progress. This can take MONTHS to develop. 6. As long as price structure maintains its supports, momentum continuation patterns and new bullish reversals will offer setups that have a better chance of following through. We will be open to participating in these even if the best prices are no longer within reach. These points are a summary of our perspective and provide a framework for our decision making process. Before you get caught up in all the hype that will follow this Bitcoin move, it really helps to understand what drives price. Chart patterns, news, drama, fundamentals, lots of pretty lines and graphics mean nothing if you do not understand the forces that actually move Bitcoin or ANY market for that matter. The candles or bars that you see on a chart are an expression of order flow and order flow is stimulated by MANY things, but most importantly by the irrational tendencies of human behavior. If "math and facts" governed markets, there would be no opportunities to buy undervalued or sell overvalued assets because everything would be "fairly" priced. Market behavior (even with the algos) is still an expression of human behavior. If you are just starting out in this game, focus on the psychology rather than charts, math and news. The sooner you can separate from the herd, the sooner you will be able to capitalize on their short term behaviors.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
9
AUDUSD potential for Long position(Intraday)As you can see from chart- price failed to make new Lower Low on 28 Oct 2019 and this could be starting of impulse wave for uptrend and since that price go up to make a new Higher High(HH) and Higher Low(HL) until today if u can see from H1 chart.Now price try to make new high from previous daily high on 22 Oct 2019(Box color-Turquoise).My prediction price will go up to find liquidity at high area and go down before buyer start to enter position at discount price area of 0.68600-0.68675. As you can see from weekly trendline price will make rejection at upper trendline and need to wait for Price Action for breakout or go minor bearish trend. This is from Daily chart and Daily chart. Analysis: 1)based on key level from higher timeframe which is Monthly and Weekly High on candle monthly August 2019-0.68680 Low on candle monthly May 2019-0.68649 if you can see price rejected that price and go up. 2)Based on trendline major high timeframe 3)supply and demand zone 4)High and low of major turning area.
Long
by MxNadhir
BTC Update! Can bulls hold $8900?We waited a few days to let the dust settle as expected. Volume dropped off and price action has slowed considerably. We were watching for a higher low ideally above $8500 last post with 9k being a level to watch. Thus far $8917 is our higher low. From there BTC began entering an equilibrium which did have a bear break yesterday after briefly tightening up within the equilibrium. EMAs have now caught up and waiting to see what direction this moves. Would like bulls to hold the $8917 low but they continue to flirt within this $9000-9200 area with an inability to shift towards higher levels thus far. Keep a watch on volume as weekend nears as now that things have settled down, I do expect a move to occur rather than just a slow drift downwards or upwards. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
3
Bitcoin Range: Filtering Noise And Sell Signals Around 10K?Bitcoin continues to elude any decisive price action which keeps it contained within a developing higher low formation. Evaluated from a broader context, the higher low and the fact that the 9750 major support is still in play provides a bullish bias. In this article I will focus on how we navigate a consolidating market and why we ignore sell signals. A trend is defined by progress which means higher lows followed by higher highs is bullish, while lower highs followed by lower lows is bearish. What throws off the new trader or investor is the time frame. Someone following a 30 minute chart can argue Bitcoin trends frequently, which is correct BUT ONLY on that time frame. Arguing that a trend or pattern on a small time frame is meaningful over the bigger picture is the recipe for losing money (anyone get lured into shorts at 9600?). Small time frames are for short time horizon strategies, like day trading NOT swing trading. Since we swing trade ONLY, we define the trend by the daily chart. And based on this context, Bitcoin has NOT been in a trend since July. This piece of information alone determines our expectations and risk tolerance for any buy signals that appear and trigger. Since the range high has been established at 14K and the range low at 9K, we have a better idea as to where to expect bullish reversals and where to anticipate short term targets. Expecting a TREND is a MISTAKE unless Bitcoin breaks OUT of this wide range. This means a close above 14K or below 9K will allow us to adjust our expectations to trending. UNLESS you are day trading, using trend following strategies in a non trending environment will lead to frequent fake outs and account erosion. It's like trying to force the wrong key into a lock, it may fit but you aren't opening any doors. So we focus on the range levels. Range lows are high probability areas for buying, while range highs are for selling. Simple enough, but time frame mixers usually go short into the range lows, expecting a sell off back to some unjustifiable level like 5K (and then watch their account erode). Any buy signal that meets our criteria above 9750 is a swing trade long possibility and our targets proportionally placed somewhere below the 12K area. That is how we trade the range. Since range lows are high probability locations for long setups, it also means they are a LOW probability location for sell signals. Just because a sell signal may appear on the daily time frame does not mean is has equal weight to a buy signal. It all depends on the probability of the location. Since 9750 is a MAJOR support, AND there is a higher low formation developing in this area at the moment (context), probability favors buying. The reward/risk does NOT favor getting short or selling inventory, which is why we do not put much weight into sell signals in this situation. We only trade one side of this market and even though we have taken a couple of stops within our recent trades, our performance is still positive for the year. The main thing to avoid in this range bound environment is NOISE and having a long only swing trade strategy that uses stop orders to enter as well as exit the market has been immensely effective. We let the market make choices for us, rather than manually react to news, opinions or erratic price action. Inexperienced traders and investors mostly lose because they focus on the obvious. They want big profits fast, and that only exists in the reality that marketers want you to believe. Is there such a thing as easy money? Perhaps in the presence of a very strong trend, that is usually when everyone is bragging about 600% profits in a month. Good habits and best practices are what will allow you to grow your capital CONSISTENTLY, NOT gambling behavior. Consistency is SLOW, uneventful, not glamorous, and does not make for an enticing marketing message. Those who happen to make big money fast often give it back just as fast when the market returns to REALITY. And the Bitcoin range right now is the typical market REALITY.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
13
$CWBHF Is A Prime Cannabis Rebound Play$CWBHF Now Trading Above All 3 Major Moving Averages $CWBHF is one the most well-known cannabis plays for investors. As we look for a rebound in the sector, quality names like $CWBHF will rally first. Charlotte's Web Holdings Inc., founded by the Stanley Brothers, is an industry-leading pioneer and the world's leading brand by market share in the production and distribution of innovative whole-plant hemp extract cannabidiol ("CBD") wellness products. Through its vertically integrated business model, the Company strives to improve customers' lives and meet their demands for stringent product quality, efficacy and consistency. Every step of the process is overseen to ensure the highest quality, from seed to self. Charlotte's Web mission is to improve life, naturally. We do this by responsibly growing our proprietary non-GMO hemp genetics on 300 acres of family farms that are made into premium, full-spectrum phytocannabinoid health and wellness products. Charlotte's Web is manufactured in a FDA-registered facility and 3rd party-verified for Good Manufacturing Practices. Charlotte's Web does not produce or sell medicinal or recreational marijuana or products derived therefrom. The Company's shares trade on the Canadian Securities Exchange ("CSE") under the symbol "CWEB". As always, trade with caution and use protective stops. Good luck to all!
OTC:CWBHFLong
by OptionsGains
Bitcoin: Are You Still Overlooking These Bullish Signs?Bitcoin continues to consolidate but still offers helpful clues as to the near term direction of this market. The key to utilizing these clues is in the ability to understand how they fit into the broader market context. In this article, I will evaluate these clues in light of the current market conditions and further explain how this information guides our own swing trade decision process. Context is an intangible element that most inexperienced traders and investors completely miss. The reason is usually being too caught up in small time frames, following others who are too caught up on small time frames or not being able to differentiate between market magnitudes. Think of context like a road map, but instead of using it to plan your road trip, you decide to ask for directions at local gas stations. I know it's senseless, but people behave exactly this way with their money (ESPECIALLY in this space). Based on our evaluation, the technical situation for Bitcoin has NOT changed since July. After the 14K peak, the major support level of 9750 has been in play ever since. Even though price tested 9K, it did not stay there for long, which again emphasizes the 9750 REGION. For those who have been following our trades and analysis know that this area represents the .382 proportion of the entire bullish swing from 3150 to 14K. In other words, this general location (context) is a place where probability continues to favor longs. Along with this broader context, there are further supportive developments. Like the higher low formation established off the of 9800 level. And the series of inside bars which provide a specific setup to evaluate buy signals from. None of these elements guarantee that a move to the 12K area will unfold, but they do further support the bullish premise presented by the location. This is information that the market provides, and alone is NOT enough to justify a position. People who manually enter the market because "it feels right" or because "it's good enough" are REACTING, even to their own opinions. And reacting means you will most likely get caught in noise, force trades, over trade and generate more errors than you have to. Instead of reacting, we use this information as a guide, and from there identify specific entries, stops and targets for a swing trade (which is NOT to be confused with a day trade or position trade). Once we have our setup criteria, all we do is place the orders and then let the MARKET decide the rest. If the market taps us into a trade, then we are in a trade. Like the one we shared on Thursday that got us long at 10,275. There have been many instances when we set up these orders and the market backs away WITHOUT touching the entry price. We have prevented countless errors and stop outs this way. This same philosophy also determines our exit most of the time. We have targets in place (below the 12K resistance) and a stop loss order. Once we are in, it is up to the market to generate the outcome of the trade, win or lose. Again, reacting to noise often leads to second guessing the trade idea, especially in this indecisive environment. The less you interfere with the trade, the better usually. There are occasional exceptions when a specific signal appears that negates the original trade premise (before reaching the stop loss order). For example, a price break below the 10,150 level will generate a new sell signal based on our criteria. There are times when we will opt to exit for a smaller loss, or at least share the information so that participants can decide what is better for their unique situation. Is this reacting? In a way, but it still requires the market to make the first move in the form of breaking a specific price. Another way to achieve this is by manually trailing the stop loss order. Most people want to hear about what is going to clue them into the next big move, or what the secret is to being a profitable trader. If there was such a secret, it certainly would NOT be shared freely on a public forum such as this. Timing markets successfully is about letting the market do most of the work while you focus on defining, managing and minimizing risk. In other words, DEFENSE and capital preservation lead to consistent returns over time. The reason why most fail in this game is because they focus on the obvious. I shared what our outlook is for Bitcoin, and how we are using this information to manage our current swing trade. Our objective from the start is to keep risk within a particular threshold, and minimize it IF the opportunity presents itself. The profit targets require no attention because these are totally out of our control and dependent on the choice of the market. The root of our process is passive. What is the root of your process? (a question for today's webinar). If you don't have an answer, then you still have a lot of work ahead of you.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
12
Higher Lows for Bitcoin, Can we Make Higher Highs? Good Evening Traders, Bitcoin is looking very interesting on the weekly, just over a big resistance mark from July 15 of $10,590 at $10,615.38. Bitcoin has been following an interesting pattern in the last few months. We have seen two weeks of profit follow each low of the cycle, meaning we could see more profit in time to come. We would need to pass $11,507.59 for a higher high to follow the potential higher low at $9,766.52. I would definitely keep a tight eye on this weekly if I were looking to make any moves on Bitcoin. Feel free to compare this to a more zoomed in POV of Bitcoin on the hourly chart, along with some of my technical analysis here . Disclaimer: This is NOT trading advice! These are merely my opinions that I have posted for you to use as one of hopefully many tools for making YOUR OWN decisions. I hope you all kill it, but I am not responsible for any financial losses. Thanks for reading!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoRichCrypto
BTC Update! Bulls continue their run!Well so far this has turned into what was initially going to be a quick and small profitable trade to now being quite the run by the bulls. I remain in 50% of my position from last chart update which is now up over 10% on that. Purple lines added here outline a possible setup where BTC price is bouncing between but for now I am happily just riding the higher lows. Watching 4 hour as well as hourly chart just to give a bit tighter stop levels. Lets see what bulls can do this week Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
1
BTC Update! Bulls tire out. Higher lows fail and down comes BTC! We saw a near perfect example of traders rushing to the exits on a loss of our higher lows. Following the same stair stepping up with new higher lows each day BTC was forming. We did have a bit of a sideways action and some may have decided $10,630 was a higher low and lost yesterday with a break down to $10,555. I personally did not have $10,630 as the higher low due to price action being more sideways and not giving the typical lower high and lower low pattern on smaller time frames to confirm anything for me. $10,555 became the higher low I watch. I then set my stop loss before bed a few dollars under this level and slept comfortably knowing it was a profitable trade even if I got stopped out. I zoomed in here on 15 min chart and the yellow line indicates the higher low level traders were watching. Once we finally broke it early this morning, we saw an immediate flush down and find ourselves testing $10k. So I am safely back to cash, profits locked up rather than holding through that drop. They don't always play out perfectly as trading does not guarantee anything. Trading is a probabilities game. And the probability of price dropping on the loss of higher lows is significant. So now we zoom out to daily chart. $10,953 is our lower high on daily. $9,470 is our must hold on daily. Anything above $9,470 will put us in an equilibrium so potential for scaling back into positions here soon for me and utilizing $9,470 as a stop loss. I'd like to see bears get one more leg down just to decrease my risk but price did bounce right off a Fibonacci line so now bulls need to prove themselves and start with some higher highs and higher lows on smaller time frames (think 15 minutes). Otherwise I'll sit patiently in cash and just wait. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
2
BTC Update! Bulls give us our higher low and higher high!Love when charts go the way you anticipate or at least mostly. Last chart I mentioned I had scaled into about 80% of my position on the drop down and re-entered final 20% just over 10k on the first bounce up. Ideally I was seeking a lower high to set in around 10,500-10,900 as that would be a solid bounce and give plenty of breathing room for the bulls to then form a higher low. Bulls finished just shy for the lower high, coming in at $10,445. Overall pretty decent tho so can't complain other than I missed my first sell to take some profit off the tabel by $30. Oh well. From there we needed to see the bulls get their higher low compared to $9470 (our low of the pullback). They did this with a higher low at $9,740 last night. And from there we wanted to see the higher high come in compared to wherever the bulls set their lower high (as of yesterdays post we didn't have a lower high set yet as thats what I was hoping to see at 10.5-10.9k). So now that we did get the official level at $10,445. That was the lower high to beat so bulls could shift the trend back into higher lows and higher highs. The bulls did get us there today with a higher high thus far coming in at $10,539. So this isn't much of a higher high but technically is one. I'd like to see bulls give another leg up before coming back down for another higher low. This will give bulls back some control on 4 hour chart and also makes for much easier trading as traders just follow their stop losses up based on each new higher low being established. Personally I remain in full position as I just missed my first sell yesterday (and would have then rebought on the consolidation seeking the first higher low) but since I missed it, I then raise my first sell level in anticipation of the eventual higher high (which I'm patiently waiting for another leg up to give this higher high a bit more momentum). If bulls do trend back down that is fine and we just watch for our next higher low with $9740 being a key level to hold and $9470 being more critical level to hold. We must be cautious as 4 hour RSI has significantly cooled off now (remember the oversold 4 hour RSI is what had us begin scaling into positions initially). Also worth watching is our 4 hour EMAs I use (12 EMA currently serving as resistance and 26 EMA currently trying to give support). Overall trade is going nearly as well as one could hope for. A push for further momentum up tonight or tomorrow to really give this higher high some meaning would really help solidify the trade, allow for some profit taking to then have my personal stop loss area at about break even for the trade. Those are my favorite types of trades as they do allow for much more comfort knowing you won't lose money and it then turns into trying to maximize some profits. Sorry for long write up. I am now out of town for the weekend so will check back in Monday or Tuesday! Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
1