Higherlow
BTC Update! Bulls show back up!Yesterdays chart I discussed multiple things of interest to me. Mainly we were watching the slow grind of bulls setting lower highs and lower lows on 4 hour to slowly drag price lower. As I was typing up yesterdays chart was when the bulls were showing some life and trying to shift that 4 hour trend back into the bulls favor. I discussed the low of $9651 we set which was a 30% pullback and loving if that would hold for the low and was seeking bulls to change the 4 hour chart to higher lows and higher highs to have me personally back interested in trades. Also was watching for 12 EMA on daily to see if it could now act as resistance. We saw the close of yesterdays daily candle get rejected at the 12 EMA but only for a brief period. Within 2 hours of this we saw a short 3% pullback and then the bulls were off again. Overall we now have seen a 30% pullback from $13868 high down to $9651 and then a 20% bounce back up to $11576. I have personally re-entered a partial position off two separate areas. Pullback on the rejection from 12 EMA on daily which unfortunately only filled one of my buys due to the small pullback. And my second entry this morning when we pullback to just under $11k. I have more cash aside to buy for a further pullback here if needed.
Ideal scenario from here since the bulls have set a higher high on 4 hour chart is a higher low to come in compared to $9651 and then higher high again for 4 hour. This would shift our trend back to fully favoring the bulls and can start the climb back towards $14k. US Holiday tomorrow so stock markets will be closed and shortened day today. Will see what that means for crypto market but I do expect us to trade within this range of $9651 and $13868 for multiple days now.
I do believe the bounce off $9651 was significant enough to say that is our bottom of this pullback but need a higher low and then higher high from 4 hour chart to confirm. Our bounce up to $11576 this morning would be perfectly fine to have that be our short term high of bounce and a healthy pullback just eyeballing the chart is anywhere from $10,500-11k in my opinion. Thus far we have dipped just under $11k but would be fine with a slightly lower pullback to fill last of my orders for this trade. Would also allow bulls to establish a nice healthy support level just below and above $10k. Sorry for long write up, fairly lengthy day trying to set up trade positions last night and early this morning.
Just My 2 Sats!
CTL - LongIn w/ small share size. Beginning a new trend? Nice 20 EMA slope. Decent R/R considering 200 MA as overhead ceiling.
BTC Update! Moving along as plannedNot a bunch to update. We got the break a few days ago we had been waiting for to allow for low risk entries into BTC. We were then looking for a bull flag or perhaps a re-test of 12 EMA to see if it could once again hold as support before giving continuation. We received the re-test to exactly our 12 EMA and bulls have taken us higher again today. Traders can now utilize higher lows on 4 hour or even daily chart for stops to keep the trade in profit or opt to scale out and take some profits along the ride up. Love the low risk trade entries. I did notice some alts pulling back which should only assist BTC here as many sell into BTC from the alts. Hoping for a solid green day today and will consider locking in some profits on my personal trade.
Just My 2 Sats!
$UAVS - low risk/reward - low float / insider buy/ accumulation$UAVS
1. recent contract news
2. Had major catalyst last month from news
3. Accumulation near .27-.30 range/ Insider buys insideri.com
4. Uptrend - making higher lows
5. low float / low volume
I think this might have another nice catalyst..
IDEA
1. buy near support area .27 - .32 (Someone is watching the tape so I would scale out at any 6-8% and rinse and repeat. / I think over .42 buyers will start to load more.
2. Set a tight Stop loss at .03 below your entry (I would do mental stop and honor it if it breaks that level).
Lots of bag holders from the last catalyst so I think this might run again.
Long term play - do your DD as I think there's growth with this company and contracts. however, it's all speculative unless the company comes out with PR to back it up.
Good Luck and play with smaller size to average down.
CCS - Long - Rectangle Break AboveBreaking out of the rectangle, also fits the ascending wedge pattern with a break above. Will give it a shot and bet on the trend. Positive earnings. Stop set if it falls back into the consolidation range = trend failed.
Wary of extended SP500, but following price as always.
TIVO Long OppAnnotations and Ideas provided on chart
General Idea:
Possible Double Bottom, w/ second bottom forming higher low
decreased selling on second bottom
Price trading in oversold territory (below the channel)
Unfilled Gap that also coincides w/ local HVN (not marked)
DXY - Further Upside Following FOMC ? Looking at the fundamentals this week, we have the CPI data as well as the Core CPI data being released on Wednesday with positive forecasts as well as the FOMC Meeting Minutes later that evening. We then have news affecting a variety of currency pairs as we prepare for the OPEC Meetings, otherwise known as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This group is responsible for 40% of the worlds oil supply which is a substantial % holding, so we can expect major volatility, CAD of course is the most effected pair correlating with Crude Oil. As well as this overall news occurring in the world, we have the PPI data release on Thursday with another positive forecasting.
Jumping to technicals and we are still in this ascending channel that I have shown in a prior article, however, looking at a more refined channel ( this isn't hi-lighted on the chart ), but if you draw out another ascending trend line from the higher wick of the 9th of October in line with the higher wick of the 2nd of January, 15th of February and extended into the future, we can see smaller refined ranging price channel.
Looking at this channel, as well as the monthly key level, we can see we are running out of steam and I believe we can see a pullback before going long on this DXY. The 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci level is hi-lighted in purple on the chart as well as the 71% Fibonacci level is laying on the weekly key level. We had a lower low prior and if price forms a lower high at this current price, we should be set to go short, HOWEVER, we have many significant higher low swing points and thus, I don't see structure as broken just yet.
We also have a new potential Head & Shoulder pattern which will confirm price retracing and falling to the downside to test the weekly key level of 96.25 before going long. With this in mind, Gold should push up, allowing our targets of 1304 being met and a potential reversal/short I anticipate. My bias for the year has been bearish for Gold and I still predict a large downside move to 1260 price region. So this can set us up for a high R/R setup. Drawing a counter trend line from the head to shoulder, we have a 3 anchored wicks showing some favourable downside potential.
I have a current neutral standpoint on this Dollar Index, but I expect price to fall before a continuation to the upside. As always, take risk/money management into consideration and follow these news events as volatility is expected and we can definitely capitalise on the volume around these news events.
Litecoin: 48 And 56 Key Levels For Profit Taking?Litecoin update: I have to give credit to Andrew on this one because he has been calling this long in our chat room since it broke the 34 resistance. And now that Bitcoin has spiked higher (our first profit target at 3825 was reached), Litecoin appears to be on the move again. Andrew actually shared some valuable insight around the higher low and break of the 41.89 level as well for a continuation trade. For those who missed this, now is NOT the time to start buying, especially for short term swing trades. The 48 resistance if anything is a level to lock in profits. The other factor to be aware of is: there is a potential double top formation here. If Bitcoin starts lingering again, LTC is in a position to fake out. That does not mean that it will, it is just that the reward/risk is no longer favorable like it was at lower levels. The next key resistance is the 56 area which is what we are considering as a target when the next long setup appears. Overall, I can't say it enough times: PATIENCE PAYS. All during the bearish environment we were extremely conservative, very selective with our trades and MISSING out on some small moves while avoiding persistent losses. Now as the environment improves, we are in position to profit, not climb out of a hole.
Bitcoin: Structure Still Says Strong. 4K In Sight?Bitcoin update: Price continues to hold up and is now taking out the minor bearish trend line that has been in place over the previous week. It is nothing to get overly excited about, BUT it does add to the argument in terms of further strength. This entire space is not exciting enough to attract a constant flow of new money, so it needs surprise news or catalysts in order to make any significant progress. This limits the effectiveness of technical analysis but does not render it useless.
The news about the SEC's comment about an eventual "ETF" and now JPM's creation of their own currency are certainly positives for the future of this space. And judging from the recent price action, again the short term patterns may not be very reliable, but the broader structure is.
After the news spiked the price over a week ago, it has been lingering lower, but not decisively so. We have been explaining to our followers that as long as Bitcoin does not give back the gains made by the large bullish candle, strength persists. Even in the face of increasing short interest.
We carry long term inventory and a short term swing trade. In order to be in on the next leg up, you just have to be in and wait for the next news item to come out and surprise the herd. Bitcoin is a very emotional and ignorant market and the smart money knows it. And they use this to their advantage with the use of market moving information timed at their convenience.
Just from my observation, there are many examples of analysis all over the internet that over complicate this. Perhaps they do this in order to attract attention since "more is better" appeals to the majority of investors, traders and gamblers.
For us, the situation is very simple: Either Bitcoin takes out the 4K resistance area upon its next catalyst, OR it takes out the 3350 area support. Based on recent structure, price appears to be poised to go for the 4K but we also know that ANYTHING can happen. Some news item can appear out of no where that sparks a push to 3250. You cannot predict these events, but you can prepare.
In summary, when it comes to timing any financial market, everything is about "IFs". IF Bitcoin pushes into the low 4Ks, we have profit targets in place to capitalize on the move. IF price takes out 3350, we will be stopped out of our swing trade, and we then wait for the next setup to get back in. IF price takes out 3250, we step aside until stability can reestablish itself. That is our plan in a nut shell.
Market timing is about having a process and following it. Our process considers many variables, and we make every effort to simplify each step in order to minimize indecision. There comes a point where there are compelling reasons to still be in a trade, and when there are not. At the moment, Bitcoin still provides a compelling argument for longs even though price appears to be static for prolonged periods.
Even though this is a primarily event driven market, that doesn't mean charts are useless, it just means you need to recognize the value behind the subtle clues that are still available. Do not make it more complicated than it is: higher lows often lead to higher highs.
BTC Update! Weekly HIGHER low set. ETF coming?!?Been a while and well honestly, market was boring so had nothing really to discuss. About 10 days or so ago was last post and we sat around $3400 and this morning we were sitting just around there still. And then things took off.
$20k here we come! Right?
Well maybe. So from some brief looks around, it appears everyone is all jazzed up about SECs quick statement regarding a BTC ETF. The quote I read regarding it was as follows:
"eventually, do I think someone will satisfy the standards that we've laid out there? I hope so, yes, and I think so"
Positive? Sure. Time frame given? No.
So everyone rushes in as this is greatest news ever. Price pumps and now we wait, a day, a week, a month? Not sure. But if no sign of ETF approval actually coming anytime soon, I'd be concerned with down everything falls again.
Great trade opportunity if in early here? Absolutely. Especially on LTC or ETH.
But lets take a look at a bigger picture. The weekly chart.
Been a while since I included this in any chart posts but since our plummet from $6500's in November and our eventual bottom at $3129 in December we watched the following:
Bounce from $3129 low to $4239. This becomes a lower high on our weekly.
Bulls then prevented a lower low from coming in and now the low of last week could be a Higher Low which was at $3338. Need to see some further follow through here on BTC to confirm but I'd lean likely $3338 will hold as a higher low.
So in order for bulls to change the trend on this weekly chart, they need to get a Higher High compared to $4239. Anything below is just another lower high and puts the bulls right back on the defensive in trying to prevent a lower low from coming in.
More positive news from SEC would certainly help. An ETF actually being approved would certainly get us the higher high on weekly. But otherwise its still a battle for these bulls. Looking at LTC weekly chart however and they actually did get a higher high on the weekly! LTC had a low of $22.17 followed by a lower high of $41.27 and then a higher low just like BTC is likely giving us and now a higher high on weekly for LTC with it thus far topping out at $44.38 today. So an incredible 100% bounce since the December low on LTC and what is a much healthier pattern on weekly than BTC is at thus far. So bulls need to see BTC follow in LTC's footsteps in terms of patterns on the weekly chart and find a higher high. Unlikely in my opinion as even from todays high so far, still another 14% or so away. But stay patient if bullish, stay protective. If you caught this move early and are in profit, protect them. I personally missed in and have been just too busy to watch the market much this week. But with some consolidation on some of these names, I'd certainly consider scaling into positions to see if they can make a push higher but remain far from changing overall outlook to bullish.
Just My 2 Sats!
Possible long on PSGJSE:PSG has broken out of the sideways trend that it has been trading in for quite a couple of months. It has formed two higher lows in a row and has broken through the long term resistance and bounced off of it as support.
If the price moves above the last high I will enter a long postion.
failed too close above 0.32650. i think more DOWN will comeas we can se, we failed to close above 0.32650 yesterday. and as we can see. the bears are now in control. i think we will go down to the big blue line, that is a very interresting fib. level, and also ( compared to the bull-run off 2017) a very big by zone. if we can go down and reach the levels arround ( 0.31000 - 0.30960 ) in the big green box. we could, put in a HL on the daily RSI. ( PICTURE IN THE COMMENTS) and a VERY TIGTHT LL on the graph. wich is a very good thing!!. and if we close in that area, the RSI will be in a very good zone in general ( 39.6500 - 40.000 ) compared to the fib. levels.
remember to be VERY carefull and look after price action in the " accumulation zone" there we have an opportunity to put in a, BIG dobbelt bottom.
there is a opportunity, to close this day over 0.32200 if we do that, i still be bullish on this pair. but rigth now, i am bearish.
TRADE SAFE!!!