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Higherlow

DXY - Further Upside Following FOMC ? Looking at the fundamentals this week, we have the CPI data as well as the Core CPI data being released on Wednesday with positive forecasts as well as the FOMC Meeting Minutes later that evening. We then have news affecting a variety of currency pairs as we prepare for the OPEC Meetings, otherwise known as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This group is responsible for 40% of the worlds oil supply which is a substantial % holding, so we can expect major volatility, CAD of course is the most effected pair correlating with Crude Oil. As well as this overall news occurring in the world, we have the PPI data release on Thursday with another positive forecasting. Jumping to technicals and we are still in this ascending channel that I have shown in a prior article, however, looking at a more refined channel ( this isn't hi-lighted on the chart ), but if you draw out another ascending trend line from the higher wick of the 9th of October in line with the higher wick of the 2nd of January, 15th of February and extended into the future, we can see smaller refined ranging price channel. Looking at this channel, as well as the monthly key level, we can see we are running out of steam and I believe we can see a pullback before going long on this DXY. The 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci level is hi-lighted in purple on the chart as well as the 71% Fibonacci level is laying on the weekly key level. We had a lower low prior and if price forms a lower high at this current price, we should be set to go short, HOWEVER, we have many significant higher low swing points and thus, I don't see structure as broken just yet. We also have a new potential Head & Shoulder pattern which will confirm price retracing and falling to the downside to test the weekly key level of 96.25 before going long. With this in mind, Gold should push up, allowing our targets of 1304 being met and a potential reversal/short I anticipate. My bias for the year has been bearish for Gold and I still predict a large downside move to 1260 price region. So this can set us up for a high R/R setup. Drawing a counter trend line from the head to shoulder, we have a 3 anchored wicks showing some favourable downside potential. I have a current neutral standpoint on this Dollar Index, but I expect price to fall before a continuation to the upside. As always, take risk/money management into consideration and follow these news events as volatility is expected and we can definitely capitalise on the volume around these news events.
TVC:DXY
by KeownArcher
Litecoin: 48 And 56 Key Levels For Profit Taking?Litecoin update: I have to give credit to Andrew on this one because he has been calling this long in our chat room since it broke the 34 resistance. And now that Bitcoin has spiked higher (our first profit target at 3825 was reached), Litecoin appears to be on the move again. Andrew actually shared some valuable insight around the higher low and break of the 41.89 level as well for a continuation trade. For those who missed this, now is NOT the time to start buying, especially for short term swing trades. The 48 resistance if anything is a level to lock in profits. The other factor to be aware of is: there is a potential double top formation here. If Bitcoin starts lingering again, LTC is in a position to fake out. That does not mean that it will, it is just that the reward/risk is no longer favorable like it was at lower levels. The next key resistance is the 56 area which is what we are considering as a target when the next long setup appears. Overall, I can't say it enough times: PATIENCE PAYS. All during the bearish environment we were extremely conservative, very selective with our trades and MISSING out on some small moves while avoiding persistent losses. Now as the environment improves, we are in position to profit, not climb out of a hole.
BITTREX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
2
Bitcoin: Structure Still Says Strong. 4K In Sight?Bitcoin update: Price continues to hold up and is now taking out the minor bearish trend line that has been in place over the previous week. It is nothing to get overly excited about, BUT it does add to the argument in terms of further strength. This entire space is not exciting enough to attract a constant flow of new money, so it needs surprise news or catalysts in order to make any significant progress. This limits the effectiveness of technical analysis but does not render it useless. The news about the SEC's comment about an eventual "ETF" and now JPM's creation of their own currency are certainly positives for the future of this space. And judging from the recent price action, again the short term patterns may not be very reliable, but the broader structure is. After the news spiked the price over a week ago, it has been lingering lower, but not decisively so. We have been explaining to our followers that as long as Bitcoin does not give back the gains made by the large bullish candle, strength persists. Even in the face of increasing short interest. We carry long term inventory and a short term swing trade. In order to be in on the next leg up, you just have to be in and wait for the next news item to come out and surprise the herd. Bitcoin is a very emotional and ignorant market and the smart money knows it. And they use this to their advantage with the use of market moving information timed at their convenience. Just from my observation, there are many examples of analysis all over the internet that over complicate this. Perhaps they do this in order to attract attention since "more is better" appeals to the majority of investors, traders and gamblers. For us, the situation is very simple: Either Bitcoin takes out the 4K resistance area upon its next catalyst, OR it takes out the 3350 area support. Based on recent structure, price appears to be poised to go for the 4K but we also know that ANYTHING can happen. Some news item can appear out of no where that sparks a push to 3250. You cannot predict these events, but you can prepare. In summary, when it comes to timing any financial market, everything is about "IFs". IF Bitcoin pushes into the low 4Ks, we have profit targets in place to capitalize on the move. IF price takes out 3350, we will be stopped out of our swing trade, and we then wait for the next setup to get back in. IF price takes out 3250, we step aside until stability can reestablish itself. That is our plan in a nut shell. Market timing is about having a process and following it. Our process considers many variables, and we make every effort to simplify each step in order to minimize indecision. There comes a point where there are compelling reasons to still be in a trade, and when there are not. At the moment, Bitcoin still provides a compelling argument for longs even though price appears to be static for prolonged periods. Even though this is a primarily event driven market, that doesn't mean charts are useless, it just means you need to recognize the value behind the subtle clues that are still available. Do not make it more complicated than it is: higher lows often lead to higher highs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
BTC Update! Weekly HIGHER low set. ETF coming?!?Been a while and well honestly, market was boring so had nothing really to discuss. About 10 days or so ago was last post and we sat around $3400 and this morning we were sitting just around there still. And then things took off. $20k here we come! Right? Well maybe. So from some brief looks around, it appears everyone is all jazzed up about SECs quick statement regarding a BTC ETF. The quote I read regarding it was as follows: "eventually, do I think someone will satisfy the standards that we've laid out there? I hope so, yes, and I think so" Positive? Sure. Time frame given? No. So everyone rushes in as this is greatest news ever. Price pumps and now we wait, a day, a week, a month? Not sure. But if no sign of ETF approval actually coming anytime soon, I'd be concerned with down everything falls again. Great trade opportunity if in early here? Absolutely. Especially on LTC or ETH. But lets take a look at a bigger picture. The weekly chart. Been a while since I included this in any chart posts but since our plummet from $6500's in November and our eventual bottom at $3129 in December we watched the following: Bounce from $3129 low to $4239. This becomes a lower high on our weekly. Bulls then prevented a lower low from coming in and now the low of last week could be a Higher Low which was at $3338. Need to see some further follow through here on BTC to confirm but I'd lean likely $3338 will hold as a higher low. So in order for bulls to change the trend on this weekly chart, they need to get a Higher High compared to $4239. Anything below is just another lower high and puts the bulls right back on the defensive in trying to prevent a lower low from coming in. More positive news from SEC would certainly help. An ETF actually being approved would certainly get us the higher high on weekly. But otherwise its still a battle for these bulls. Looking at LTC weekly chart however and they actually did get a higher high on the weekly! LTC had a low of $22.17 followed by a lower high of $41.27 and then a higher low just like BTC is likely giving us and now a higher high on weekly for LTC with it thus far topping out at $44.38 today. So an incredible 100% bounce since the December low on LTC and what is a much healthier pattern on weekly than BTC is at thus far. So bulls need to see BTC follow in LTC's footsteps in terms of patterns on the weekly chart and find a higher high. Unlikely in my opinion as even from todays high so far, still another 14% or so away. But stay patient if bullish, stay protective. If you caught this move early and are in profit, protect them. I personally missed in and have been just too busy to watch the market much this week. But with some consolidation on some of these names, I'd certainly consider scaling into positions to see if they can make a push higher but remain far from changing overall outlook to bullish. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
failed too close above 0.32650. i think more DOWN will comeas we can se, we failed to close above 0.32650 yesterday. and as we can see. the bears are now in control. i think we will go down to the big blue line, that is a very interresting fib. level, and also ( compared to the bull-run off 2017) a very big by zone. if we can go down and reach the levels arround ( 0.31000 - 0.30960 ) in the big green box. we could, put in a HL on the daily RSI. ( PICTURE IN THE COMMENTS) and a VERY TIGTHT LL on the graph. wich is a very good thing!!. and if we close in that area, the RSI will be in a very good zone in general ( 39.6500 - 40.000 ) compared to the fib. levels. remember to be VERY carefull and look after price action in the " accumulation zone" there we have an opportunity to put in a, BIG dobbelt bottom. there is a opportunity, to close this day over 0.32200 if we do that, i still be bullish on this pair. but rigth now, i am bearish. TRADE SAFE!!!
BITFINEX:XRPUSDShort
by hayolo
2
Bitcoin: Testing Lows Is Part Of The Process?Bitcoin update: Price is beginning its first real test to prove if the recent rally is truly the beginning of a broader recovery, or not. The chart formation that is still developing can be the sign of the bottom that everyone has been waiting for, but it still has a ways to go in terms of proof. On the other hand, if price clears the newly projected support levels, Bitcoin could be testing 3K again quickly. If you have been following our analysis, you should know by now that tops and bottoms take time to develop. Part of that development process is for price to generate and test new support and resistance levels. How the market chooses to deal with these levels is where trading opportunities can come from, but letting the market decide is key. Since the move from 3150 to 4230, Bitcoin has two projected support areas of 3800 and 3450 respectively. Simply reaching a level is not enough, the question is what kind of price action appears at the level? Candle stick reversals would be one type of signal that would call our attention to another potential swing trade long. By waiting for such a signal, you can better avoid the all too common mistake of jumping in too early, only to watch price push to new lows. Remember this market is not out of the clear as far as the short term bearish trend is concerned. Price needs to close above the 4400 area (COINBASE) to increase the probability that a bottom has been established. Since Bitcoin has not proven that a broader recovery has taken hold just yet, we continue to maintain a strong defense. This means long signals are considered aggressive (small positions), and trade management is tight. This defensive stance is what allowed us to come away with a 192 point profit as opposed to a 240 point loss in a recent swing trade that we shared with our followers. In summary, timing Bitcoin successfully is possible, but it will not come from following others analysis (ESPECIALLY from the majority of "experts" on here). Success begins with a particular mindset. We receive a lot of questions from inexperienced investors asking if they have "missed" the bottom since the Bitcoin short squeeze. They ask this from a mindset of "scarcity", which is the natural human reaction and also the first step toward failure. The fear of missing out is exactly that. And that fear often leads to expensive mistakes, large losses and empty accounts. If you want improve your performance, forget charts and oscillators, start by reshaping your thought process. Stop chasing scarcity, and instead begin your thought process with the idea that opportunities in any financial market are infinite. What IS scarce is their frequency, but there is a very simple solution to that and it is called patience. Remember missing signals doesn't wipe out your account. Have you missed the bottom? Buying at or near the actual bottom is a low probability game. You don't need to buy the bottom or sell the top to show a positive performance. If Bitcoin is going to sustain any significant recovery, there is a good chance it will produce more signals along the way. Signals that offer clear and attractive reward/risk. It is just a matter of having the patience to let it prove itself. This is a game of psychology. Charts can help us measure probabilities that are based on the natural tendencies of human behavior. If you cannot interpret the psychology behind all the pretty graphics that a chart provides, then you are making decisions based on random lines.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
BTC Update! Following pattern nicelyYesterdays chart we were watching the bulls as well as the shorts chart and I stated "in order to see these shorts get squeezed, the bulls need to break above $3486 (perhaps to somewhere in the 3500's) and then pull back briefly for a higher low and then break out again and into the 3600s+ for shorts to truly feel any pressure and create the squeeze to give a good size run up" The bulls were able to break above $3486 and ran another $100 up to $3586 before pulling back to set their lower high which they set down at $3437. Bulls are now back on the move and would love to break into $3600's tonight. If they set a lower high here, they'd then again look for a higher low and just tighten up the pattern before the eventual bear or bull break. I personally did scale into positions in the upper $3400's on the consolidation yesterday and will comfortably use the stop loss from our higher low. Thus far, volume looks fine with no red flags. EMAs on 4 hour are slowly catching up and could potentially serve as a support (as well as another higher low) tonight or tomorrow. Its nice to see some bullish movement but still a lot of work on daily and weekly charts to reverse any trends on the larger time frames. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTC Update! Bulls beat EMA resistance now want it as support!Last chart we were looking to see which direction BTC broke either Sunday or Monday. The break came Sunday and bulls were able to get to a new high off their recent lows. $3643 is now the resistance to watch and bulls have a higher low down at $3254 they now want to protect. Bulls were able to get above 12 and 26 EMA resistances on 4 hour chart with the move yesterday but continue to remain under the 12 EMA on daily chart. Since pulling back here the bulls are seeking another higher low and appear to be try to hold 12 EMA on 4 hour as support with bulls buying up anything when it dips below 12 EMA. But anything above $3254 would give a nice higher low and then bulls would seek another higher high to try and shift the trend. Bears have covered a significant amount of shorts over the last couple of days but never saw enough pressure from the bulls to create a short squeeze and really get BTC running higher. The overall lack of a significant/sustained bounce from our lows has me continue to think long term our low is not set but as one who only trades bullish, sure would like a shift in the trend to give the bulls a little rally even if only for a week or two. But will wait for bulls to show some proof they aren't going to just lay down and let the bears take right back over this week. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTC Update! 4 Hour found its higher low and another higher highYesterdays post we had touched $4350 and I was personally looking for some consolidation as the 4 hour chart was over extended so I had scaled out of 80% of my position and potentially looking to reload on the consolidation. We reached $4365 and then consolidated back to $4078 (so about a 6.5% pullback). Perfectly healthy and expected and then BTC broke out over night (my time) to another higher high at $4415! I am a bit surprised at the higher high as ETH and LTC have not accomplished this and formed their 4 hour higher low and thus far a lower high. I have moved my SL up based on the 4 hour higher low for the remainder of my position and thus far did not reload anything from the portion I had taken profits on. Being a bit cautious as Shorts are still extremely high and just don't care to cover much and with ETH and LTC showing a bit more weakness in not making a higher high again, makes me concerned we may see the same start to show up with BTC. So just staying protective, was a great trade and no need to take on anything risky here. Lets see how the day plays out. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTCUSD - Modeling 29 June as pivot point for BTC recoveryBTCUSD - Was 29 June the pivot point for the future of BTC? This was my procrastination project for the day in between working. 29 June may have been the turn-around for recovery in the BTC 2018 crash. What we see since then is a consistent rejection of what appeared to be an establishing downward LL trendline. While the 14 Aug HL may have been an anomaly, the 08 Sep HL appears to be a confirmation of the changing low trendline. The tightening market led to some minor confirmations, but I am not personally convinced of an incoming bull market unless BTC can recover from (approx) $6000. At the moment, this chart is not making any claims to incoming markets. All indications I have are that it is totally unpredictable what is going to happen come the end of the squeeze and volume likely returns. Today's breakout above the 05 Sep to 22 Sep high trendline possibly is a minor sign of a coming bull market. It remains to be seen if the 24 July to 05 Sep high trendline can be broken, and most tellingly, the 5 March to 24 July high trendline.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CuriousKryk
BTC Update! Gave us the higher low & higher high we were seekingOk gang, jumping off last chart. I discussed the bulls re-entering the original zone of $6345-6493 we had traded within for 2 weeks but the bulls were struggling to maintain the lower portion of the zone. I was scaling into my positions at that time to watch for bulls to form another higher low compared to $6293 and then ideally give us a higher high which would have been getting above $6378. Bulls were able to form the higher low at $6313 last night and then gave us a nice uptick in bull volume this morning to push for the higher high which topped out at $6440. Thus far, this really does not prove much to me overall for this move other than it now keeps me close to break even on my trade as I will move my SL up to just under this recent higher low. But as stated last chart, $6493, the height of the prior zone we traded in, or call it $6500 psychologically, is where I need to see these bulls push above. Currently perfectly healthy consolidation from this push up. Red flags here would include spikes in bear volume or just a significantly prolonged consolidation (days out again within a small range). Otherwise, bulls ideally want to see some consolidation here today and then a push for that $6500 resistance. After that, will look up towards the low $6800's where we have been rejected at $6823 and then at $6810 previously. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTCUSD: Range Bound But Structure Improving.BTCUSD update: Not much action since the massive short squeeze recently. There is very little to go by in terms of market structure and timing and why we have be on the side lines WAITING. Those who do not know any better continue to trade and only feed the herd, while we prepare for the high probability move. The Tether situation has created a layer of uncertainty that cannot be evaluated from a chart. We have been watching the spread between Bitfinex and Coinbase as one of our determiners of the internal health of this market. The fact that the spread has been narrowing is a bullish sign by our evaluation. There have been conspiracy theories about Tether since its inception. Very similar to the conspiracy dramas that attract a lot of attention toward the Gold and Silver markets (for YEARS). We can sit here and argue about insignificant facts and figures, but the bottom line is this: it is in the best interest of the exchanges involved to resolve any instability created by Tether, perceived or real. There is too much transaction revenue at stake alone to let something like this unravel. The other thing to remember is: these markets have NO REGULATION. That means very large players (Like Goldman Sachs) can employ age old techniques to accumulate coins at attractive prices. Especially in these markets where ignorance runs high. Doing things like engineering large sell offs to shake out the weak and lure to inexperienced. Trolls like to complain about this sort of thing. We simply recognize it, and consider it when evaluating price action and levels. So far the sharp pull back from the 6700 area to 6100 appears to be in line with this consideration. Since the Tether situation has contributed to the widening spread between Bitfinex and Coinbase, we put more credibility into the Coinbase chart (it is backed by Dollars). When this situation resolves itself, we will go back to Bitfinex charts. With that being said, the Coinbase chart is demonstrating a much healthier formation. We are looking for a particular swing trade long setup to capitalize on the possibility of a shallow higher low. A sharp close above the bearish trend line will serve as confirmation. What makes this situation unique is the range expansion the occurred previously. If price cannot rally from there, we are then looking for support around the lower 6K region. So far the psychological level itself has been in place for MONTHS. In summary, high probability opportunities in this market are INFREQUENT. People who do not understand that are still wrapped up in the bad habits that were reinforced during the "easy bull market" where everyone was right no matter what. This persistent range bound environment is what exposes those who do not have enough experience to adjust. A positive performance comes from avoiding losses as much as it does from generating profits. This is mostly achieved through WAITING when the market shows NO REASON TO TRADE. Patience saves money, costs nothing and is not hard to comprehend. Knowing how to apply it is where the value comes from and this is a function of psychology, NOT a chart formation. Just something to think about.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
17
BTC Update! Recognizing support & resistance levels!Good evening everyone! We had about 48 hours of nothing occurring since last update. Two charts ago we were watching to see which side caved with the 3 supports in $6400's and 3 resistances in $6600's. The bears won that battle and sent us down to $6399 which is when I entered some positions, using $6320 as my stop loss based on the next support level. We then saw a rally up where again, we knew we had 3 resistance spots of $6610, 6640, and 6642. This has me taking some profit in the upper $6500's just to lock the profit in and recognizing potential resistance spots. We topped out at $6603. Last chart I discussed just having patience with the remainder of my position and if bulls could not break the resistances, I'd be watching for a 4 hour higher low to be formed and this would then become an updated stop loss area just to protect profits. Bulls established that at $6511 on the consolidation. And finally after literally no movement up or down for a while, we saw the bulls try and make their move. They rallied straight to, you guessed it, resistance. $6641 is where this move topped out. I personally left my position in tact as was not at a computer to move from SL to profit taking but do not believe I would have exited anyways. At this time, I'll ride the stop losses to protect profits and wait to see if the bulls can prove themselves and get above the resistance spot now at $6641 and $6642. So we essentially have a triple top including $6640 from before. Ok, so am I bullish or bearish? Overall I am neutral because the weekly remains in an equilibrium pattern. So let's weigh some positives and negatives of current market. Positive, bulls got above the high from 2 days ago at $6603. Negative, they still could not beat the 3 resistance zones, getting ahead of $6610 and rejecting hard with the triple top. Negative - the upper wick on the candle screams profit taking just as it did before. I'll keep a few stop losses loose personally just to avoid the market makers fishing for those stops as this market continues to be easily moved with thin order books. Market is in a bit of a channel currently as well so I am keeping a close watch on that. While I'll happily stop out if higher lows are lost and protect my profit, I'd then be watching the channel to re-enter positions and use the channel as a SL if needed. Lots of ways to play this market but overall its currently a market I am not dedicating a ton of time to as the moves have been small so a couple of checks on the chart each day just to see where things are and if I need to adjust stops or alerts. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats