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Higherlow

ETHUSD: 442 Inside Bar Trigger Setting Up For Low 500s Target.ETHUSD update: Price has tested the 423 reversal zone boundary for a second time. Following BTC, it appears this market is also gearing up to establish a higher low formation. There is now a new inside bar in place. If the next candle takes out the 442 high, it will activate a buy trigger and The next leg higher can run into the resistance zone around the low 500's. Earlier today I published an article on S.C. that touched on the inverted head and shoulders pattern that is in progress in the BTC market. Price is currently establishing the right shoulder and missed my limit buy order by 5 points. If BTC manages to maintain the higher low, it will signal a new wave of bullish momentum in general. An inverted head and shoulders pattern in BTC is a significant sign of broader strength. This is the type of pattern that can be anticipated in a high probability reversal location like BTC has been in for some time. And if BTC chooses to test 6850, that would coincide with this market testing the 494 to 518 minor resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing relative to 548 high). That would also result in the break of the more recent bearish trend line in the 470s which further adds to the bullish argument. What makes this market even more compelling is the attractiveness of the reward/risk. Risk can be measured from the 417 low or 392 low, which ever one is more in line with your tolerance. From current levels that is anywhere from 14 to 40 points of risk while the reward potential is at least 60 points. At S.C., this certainly fits within the parameters of our swing trade criteria. In summary, like I have been writing in my S.C. articles, a market that is going through the bottoming process will be noisy. Understanding how to use technical analysis to measure probabilities is key to navigating an environment like this. Keep in mind, the inside bar low can also be taken out which would generate a sell trigger. This is when you must consider the probability of the broader location and is part of the reason why we place more weight on the buy trigger. Consider focusing on tools that help you anticipate rather than react. Support and resistance and candle sticks are two elements that offer a better read compared to your standard oscillator. Often the best opportunities start out as the ugliest prices.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
BTCUSD: Higher Low Can Lead To Inverted Head & Shoulders.BTCUSD update: Price has retraced to the 6300 area which is serves as a minor support. As I wrote in today's S.C. report, this market is in position to establish an inverted head and shoulders pattern which is a long term bullish sign. Since there are no specific triggers to go long, we are still waiting see if price offers a buying opportunity around the 6K area. This is a go and stop market, one that does not treat reactionary traders nicely. Understanding the type of environment and where to anticipate movements based on probability is key. This is why we did not buy the consolidation break out going into the resistance zone. The risk of retrace was high and the situation did not fit the criteria of our swing trade plan.The question is where is the best place to get long since the retrace is in progress? 6167 to 5999 is the minor .618 support zone relative to the recent bullish swing. This would be a very convenient and high probability location for a reversal candle to appear. The other level is the 5669 reversal zone boundary which would be the extreme price scenario. This is when the market usually looks the ugliest and the weak hands are shaken. In summary, if this market establishes a broader higher low formation around the current price, it could lead to a test of the 7120 reversal zone. As I wrote in my detailed S.C. report, this level serves as a reasonable point of reference for short term profit targets. The broader formation is in line with our high probability location premise that we have been writing about since May. If it follows through, price can very well be on its way back to the 7381 resistance and beyond. At S.C. we prepare and wait for the market to offer opportunities that fit within the scope of our risk profile. These opportunities are not isolated to one strategy, and is the reason why we accumulate inventory as well as take shorter term swing trades. Many less experienced traders have a tough time in these markets because they rely on tools or information that focus on irrelevant price activity. Projected support and resistance, psychological numbers and chart patterns can provide a lot of value in a noisy environment where oscillators are much less effective. Either way, prepare for scenarios rather than "predict" them. At least this way you put yourself in a position to let the market come to you.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
ETHUSD: Next Test Of Support In The 430s?ETHUSD update: Price is hesitating just under the 494 to 518 minor resistance zone after taking out the bearish trend line. This is a tricky situation because at first glance, this market appears to be forming a lower high and following the recent "trend". What is not visible is the probability of the location of BTC which we have been reiterating is bullish and ultimately determines where all the coins go. No matter how we analyze and examine this market, it is going to do what BTC decides to do. The only reason why I take the time to evaluate the levels and formations is because it is a way to quantify risk specifically for this market. Since the bearish trend line has been taken out across all the major coins, at S.C., we are anticipating the next retrace to present a higher low. For this market, that means looking for a reversal pattern somewhere in the 430's. If price falls through, then 392 is the reversal zone boundary to watch for bullish candle formations. Again this movement all depends on the sentiment and order flow of BTC. In summary, the higher low that we are waiting for may not happen the way we anticipate. Especially in this holiday market, price may consolidate and squeeze a little higher unexpectedly. At S.C. we are only interested in probabilities, especially on a broader magnitude. When these markets begin to align with our expectations, the next step is to refine the risk. One way we do that is using specific entry criteria that either the market will meet, or it will not. This is an imperfect process that does not catch every opportunity, but it serves a much more important purpose. It filters out a high frequency of trades with negative outcomes, preserves capital and allows for unemotional binary decision making. The benefits are definitely outweigh the occasional opportunity cost. What is your process?
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
LTCUSD: The Levels We Are Looking To Buy Are Lower.LTCUSD update: Tight consolidation as this market waits for BTC to choose a direction. There is a lot of structural conflict in this area and the best thing to do is let these markets figure themselves out. There are no worthwhile signals to capitalize on anyway. As you can see on the chart, price rejected the 128 reversal zone boundary. It has also found support off of the 117 to 113 minor support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure). An adjusted bullish trend line is still in play which means as long as it holds, price can still grind higher. Even though this may be the case, there are no long setups to talk about. And as long as the 138 resistance level (.382 of broad bearish structure) stays intact, it is not reasonable to expect a sustained rally any time soon. In times of price conflict, the best thing to do is avoid trading. Even on the inventory building side, these are not low enough prices to make them attractive. Also keep in mind BTC is still fluctuating near a resistance zone which means there is still more bearish potential than bullish. At S.C., our plan is to see if these markets offer opportunities by retesting significant lows. In this market those would be the 113 or sub 108 areas. If price can develop reversal candles in these areas, a swing trade long idea may be in order. Otherwise we are not initiating any new longs. Quiet markets are good for two things: researching undervalued high potential alts and quietly accumulating them. You want to buy them when the herd is not excited or not looking, NOT when they are being hyped by every coin blog in existence. On S.C. we always make it a point to write about the ones that we see the most potential in. Instead of getting caught in forced trades, research your next possibility.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
ETHUSD: Poised To Break Higher But 641 Points To Vulnerability.ETHUSD update: The slow grind is a pleasant market to watch if you are managing positions over the long term. If you are trying to open a new position, it can be very hard to watch because it can turn at any point, but slowly continues higher. What is not obvious is the risk of retrace which I will talk more about in this report. Price is about to retest the 625 resistance (.382 of recent bearish swing). This level has previously proven to attract selling activity. The question is do these bears return? The higher low established at 575 indicates that price is more likely to push higher, but this is where the risk of retrace comes into play. The 641 reversal zone boundary is relative to the 628 high and is the area to watch for bearish formations IF a fake out is in order for these markets. Keep in mind, this is not a prediction, it is a scenario to be prepared for. If the newly established bullish trend line stays intact, this market may be on its way to a new high and a decisive close above the 628 level. This will change the short term outlook from bearish to bullish. At S.C., we are not taking any new swing trade longs because price is too close to resistance levels. We would rather miss the low probability trade, even if it works out this time. We know that in the long run, the same trade would produce inconsistent results and that is not in line with our goal. Our plan is to wait for better prices which means a retest of 575 would have to happen. If price continues higher, then we will be evaluating for the next swing trade long opportunity.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
BTCUSD: Higher Low, But Climbing Back Into Reversal Zone.BTCUSD update: Dramatic run up back to 7600s after making a low of 7372. About 40 points above the support zone I wrote about previously. It does not matter why it happened. What is more important is what is likely to happen next and is there any opportunity here? In one sentence, the answer is there is nothing here. No level, no trade setup. Just random price action. Price is touching the bearish trend line and appears poised to break, but that is not enough information for us to justify a trade. At S.C., we are not interested in any new long positions at this level. We will especially be steering clear of any prices near the 7896 reversal zone boundary. Also we are not losing sight of the fact that 8185 is still intact. This is the .382 resistance of the recent bearish structure. As long as this level is not compromised, we will be leaning more to the bear side in the short term. Keep in mind this does not mean we go short. We are long term bullish and are interested in swing trade long setups, and extreme prices to add to long term inventory. If you do have the ability to go short, I would keep risk to a minimum by limiting exposure to day trade strategies. And that is beyond the scope of my article. In summary, yes it's dramatic but there is no reason to react. If this market is going to break out, there will be plenty of new opportunities along the way. Until then, be patient and look ahead to see where the next potential inflection points are. If the market reacts at one of these points, you should at least have a better idea of what to expect. The question you must ask yourself: is it within the range of your trading plan to participate? If you don't know how to answer that, then you probably need to work on developing a well defined plan. Watch S.C. for more updates.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
BTC Equilibrium Until July If you are long this is the only chart you need. BTC has been in the same Equilibrium Pattern for the last few months. We have had a series of Higher Lows and Lower Highs. The pattern is really beginning to tighten as we get closer and closer to a bullish breakout. Volume from the bears is waning as the pattern tightens. I fully expect a breakout in early to mid July. Buying opportunities can be found at the bottom of the trend line, for both BTC and any Alts you may be looking to accumulate. Happy Trading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by StatFall
3
ETHUSD: Higher Low Signals Strength But Inside Resistance Zone.ETHUSD update: Higher low forming inside resistance zone while momentum remains bullish. On top of that, there is a bullish pin bar that may signal further buying for a potential higher high. While BTC has a somewhat similar formation, this market happens to be inside a resistance zone while BTC is not. As I write continuously, best practices say buy supports, sell resistances, but always remember to consider context. In the current situation, there is a bit of a conflict. There is a shallow higher low forming within the 741 to 845 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish structure). Often higher lows lead to higher highs, and in this case, since momentum is clearly bullish, it is within reason to expect this resistance to break. With that being said, I believe this market will follow BTC which is in a slightly better position to rally which can lead this market into the next reversal zone defined by the 876 boundary. Although a shallow higher low is a very aggressive trade, we are not issuing a buy signal for this market (especially since a signal was issued on BTC. See S.C.). The more attractive location for a swing trade long is the 656 support (.382 of current bullish structure). Price may not retrace back to that level though, especially if BTC pushes its resistance zone. This is a tough call because as all the coins are poised to go higher, this particular market is less attractive because of the risk associated with such a location. Best practices offer a general guide to positioning yourself alongside the intent of the market. Buying a strong market, one that makes higher lows and higher highs is appropriate, but context is an important consideration when it comes to assessing the risk. And when I mention risk, I am not just talking about the possible loss, but also the probability of the trade following through which is a different and tough to evaluate variable. If we are going to call an aggressive trade, we would rather choose BTC since it is in a more attractive position compared to this market. Remember, the purpose of these posts is to provide insight and perspective, because when it comes to taking risk, you have to be able to do that within the boundaries of your own tolerance and trading process. You must be able to make your own independent decisions, and know exactly why you make them and recognize when the market is not cooperating quickly. Check out S.C. for more.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
8
S&P500: Higher Low Can Lead To Test Of 2710 Again Soon.S&P500 Update: This chart puts Friday's strong market close into perspective. There is a failed low and bullish pin bar off the 2615 to 2587 support zone. This bullish configuration can lead to a consolidation breakout and retest of the 2710 to 2751 resistance zone. Earnings, economic data and political catalysts sway sentiment in this market constantly, but it is important not to lose sight of the levels. The 2615 to 2587 support zone is the .618 area relative to the recent bullish structure. This is an area to look for buying activity which appeared Thursday by the close. Friday was when a bullish trigger occurred along with dramatic follow though. This information is valuable even if you are not trading the S&P outright. Since this market generally acts as a broader market gauge, you can use signals in this market to help time decisions in individual companies. For example, the current technical structure implies broader strength in the near term. If this market breaks out of its consolidation and pushes the 2751 resistance level, it may be well on its way toward the 3K level which sets the stage for a summer rally. Keep in mind, this market is very sensitive to many economic and political variables. Don't be distracted by the reaction to this information, instead question how price is behaving at the predetermined levels. Now that momentum has shifted back to bullish, the next relevant area to consider is the 2710 to 2751 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish structure). If price can close strong in this area, then it is more likely to push into the next zone which is the 2746 to 2804 area. In summary, overall price is still within a broader consolidation but there are signs that imply a broader bullish breakout is more likely. Monitor fundamental catalysts but do not fall victim to exaggerated news or over dramatized hype. Instead, use the levels that this market faces as it moves forward as more of a measure of reality. If price breaks below the 2587 support, then more bearish sentiment should be expected, otherwise, this market is still following the bullish road map that has been outlined by the long term Elliott Wave count available on S.C. There is no guarantee that the market will stay on this path, but watch for fundamentals that reinforce this technical view along the way and plan ahead, do not react. Questions and comments welcome.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarcPMarkets
2
BTCUSD: Great Setup, Not So Great Location.BTCUSD Update: A higher low formation appeared off of the 7823 low and price took out the 8185 high during the previous candle, but we did not issue a trade signal. Why? This price action is occurring within a resistance zone which increases the risk for initiating long swing trades significantly. It took me quite a few years to figure out that not all signals are created equal. Context offers a way to gauge the likelihood of the expected outcome and this has nothing to do with complicated formulas. It is all about having a way to organize market information and compare unfolding ideas to best practices, or specific criteria to justify risk. Our criteria is very well defined and this is what acts as a signal filter. Higher risk trade ideas, even though they produce profitable trades at times, are not consistent enough in the long run. Consistency over the long run is a defining factor when it comes to professional speculation. Best practices dictate that buying into a resistance is generally a bad idea and that is exactly where this buy trigger has appeared. I wrote about this specifically when I updated the BTC analysis on S.C. yesterday. The 8091 to 8543 resistance zone is the .618 area relative to the recent bearish structure. Buying in this zone carries more risk on this particular time frame when it comes to evaluating a potential swing trade long. The more attractive location for this setup is the 7553 level (.382 of recent bullish swing) because of it's proportion to the current price structure and because it is where the recently established bullish trend line is located. This support level is a much better place for a buy signal to appear in terms of reward/risk and expected outcome. The problem is the market may or may NOT retest this level. Waiting for a setup to occur at this level or having the patience to not react if the market continues higher from the current level is what separates the rational traders from the herd. The herd reacts to anything because it is driven by greed. The rational trader wants to make money too, but waits until conditions are most favorable and is willing to forfeit market moves that promote bad habits and reduce consistency over the long run. Just like a fisherman anchors his boat in a "good spot" and waits for the fish to find him, he does not chase after the fish. In summary, this market is showing an attractive structure that implies further strength, but what is not immediately apparent is the risk. There is no particular advantage in a situation like this and the outcome is more random. As price action traders, we do not want random because it does not lead to consistency in the long run. So even if this trade setup produces a favorable outcome, we know that if you take this same trade 100 times, the majority of the time you will lose. If this bullish setup does not get through the resistance zone, it will more than likely drift lower into the support level that is more in line with our swing trade plan. At S.C., we prefer quality over quantity and have no problem watching higher risk setups move without us. Referring back to the fishing analogy, you cannot control the fish, but you can control the action you take to increase the chances of catching one and trading works the same way. This is one of those situations. Questions and comments welcome (We post more technical versions of these details on S.C. first. Make sure to check updates there).
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
21
BTCUSD: Signs Of The Bottoming Process.BTCUSD update: Weak prices but no new lows as this market tries to find stability within a multi degree overlapping support area. Often a market bottom is not a simple event, it is a process that unfolds over time. As long as the 6K recent low is not taken out, this market is building a broad base to rally from in my opinion. Right now there is an inside bar in place within the 7980 to 7652 support zone (.618 of recent bullish swing). This zone is overlapping the 8171 to 7239 support zone (.618 of the recent bullish structure off the 6K low) and that is overlapping the 8174 to 4983 support zone (.618 of entire bullish structure since the 150 low). That is a lot of overlap. Now, all the overlap in the world does not guarantee that price will find a bottom here, but it certainly makes for a very strong technical argument for accumulating and holding your coins in this tough environment. In addition to that, there are a series of extreme reversal zone boundaries that are based on recent lows which are 7776, 7401 and 6941 respectively. Any reversal candle off of these levels will be a buy signal according to my plan and criteria that I look for. So what does all this mean? As ugly as this market gets, remember where we are in the big picture. There is a greater chance that a broader bottom develops rather than dramatic new lows which all the hype and herd mentality traders point to. One clue to watch for, especially for people who consume news, is when this market starts shrugging off negative news. Often that is a sign that buyers are absorbing what ever supply is left while no new selling is entering the market. There is NO precise way to measure this relative to the news, it is more of a general observation that helps to put this environment into perspective. A bottom process is one where lows can be retested a number of times, resulting in a lot of false starts and lack of bullish follow through. Just like we are experiencing now. My swing trade was stopped out, but I am looking to get right back in. What needs to happen now in order for me to enter into a more conservative position is to wait for evidence that this bearish momentum is losing its grip. That level for me is a break of the 8230 level (.382 of recent bearish swing). There are a number of ways to play that break which I will explain further on S.C. In summary, higher lows often lead to higher highs and represent underlying strength as expressed by the order flow on the larger time frames. A reversal from the current location which constitutes a higher low formation can lead prices back toward the mid to high 8Ks or higher. Do not lose sight of where this market is trading and get sucked into the herd which is calling for shorts. This is no different than when they were calling for 30K when this market was at 18K. The levels are laid out for you on this chart, it is up to you to determine where you are comfortable taking risk and how much risk. I intend to go long again, and I am going to wait for the confirmation which will cost me the most attractive prices, but what matters more is the market staying on my side in terms of momentum. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
46
LTCUSD: Poised To Break Bearish Trend Line. New Trend Beginning?LTCUSD update: Higher low established at the 156 level serves as a sign of strength as this market is setting up to break the bearish trend line that has been in place since February. On top of that, price has been fluctuating within a major support zone for almost two weeks which implies further strength to come. Patience is key in this slow and uneventful environment. This market is full of false starts and no follow through which means there needs to be a bullish catalyst to spark the follow through required to begin the next broad movement higher. A close above the 165 level would confirm the break of the bearish trend line and could be the beginning of a price structure that can lead back to the low 200's at least. Keep in mind these markets are all following BTC. This market in particular, looks almost identical to the BTC chart. Both of these markets are fluctuating within major support areas which serve as an important factor when it comes to considering market context. In this market, there is the 161 to 139 major support zone (.618 area of recent bullish structure) and overlapping that is the 151 to 145 minor support (.618 area relevant to recent bullish swing). And just above that is the 153 extreme reversal zone boundary that is relevant to the 156 low. Even though the momentum is generally bearish, price is within an area where a bullish reversal and break out is highly likely. Although price is moving slowly, a bearish catalyst can always come out and scare these markets lower. As long as price stays above the lower bullish trend line (140 area), I will not be concerned with minor fluctuations lower. IF price breaks and closes below the 140 area, then that would open the possibility of a retest of the low 100's. Just something to keep in mind. In summary, when markets trade in tight narrow ranges and put the herd to sleep, that is the best time to accumulate inventory in my opinion. Position trading is a good strategy in this environment especially because it allows you to build without the wild gyrations. This is what you want to do BEFORE a bullish catalyst causes a major reaction and gets everyone's attention. Once that happens, that is when you should be looking to lock in profits and capitalize on all the traders and investors who don't know any better and react to the hype that follows such moves. Just like in BTC, there are a number of bullish trigger scenarios that can unfold from this point. Do you know which ones? And if a trigger goes off, do you have a plan of action? Are you position trading (building inventory)? Or swing trading? IF a long trigger goes off, I will include that information on the S.C. website only. Questions and comments welcome (better to PM if you have a pressing question. Since I must focus my attention on S.C.).
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
14
BTCUSD: Revisiting 8400 Support Ares. Long Still In Play.BTCUSD update: After triggering a long at 8721 and pushing back to 9K, price has retraced back to the 8412 support level. This situation is exactly why you do not chase, and instead place a limit order below the market when you miss a trigger. The swing trade limit buy filled at 8815, which was posted on S.C. website. This price action is tricky to say the least. The outside bar that developed and triggered the long was followed by a bearish pin bar which has taken price back to the 8412 level (.382 of recent bullish swing). This formation has established a lower high formation off of the 9K area. Is this the beginning of a new bearish movement? In my opinion, NO and the reason is: price still has a good chance of producing a failed low formation just above the 8090 level (minor reversal zone boundary). If this scenario unfolds, the swing trade will be stopped out, but if a reversal pattern develops in this area, I will be looking for another long. If you missed the swing trade entry, you still have a chance to get in but a long trigger needs to occur. This can happen in a number of ways which I am not going to explain here. What IF price breaks below 8093? That would increase the possibility of retesting the 7776 and 7401 areas respectively. Remember these areas are supports, and shorting into them is extremely risky unless you know exactly what you are doing and have the ability to exit the market quickly if you have to. I do not short these markets, and if I was going to, it would not be at these major support areas. In summary, my recent reports have been brief because I have been in the Bradenton area of Florida presenting to groups. I have met some amazing people here and had the opportunity to network with very impressive talent. As far as this trade goes, I have been managing inventory for months now and continue to selectively add to it. Keep in mind position trading and swing trading are two separate strategies which contain different stops and targets. For more details on the active swing trade and decisions for my position trade, you can go to S.C. which is still being populated with information. As long as this market maintains the current supports, I believe it is reasonable to anticipate higher prices over the next week at least. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
BTCUSD: Bullish Engulfing Candle Confirms Long Trigger.BTCUSD update: Higher low is established off of the 8271 level which was basically the reaction I was anticipating off of the 8412 support. With the outside bar on the 12 hour, this market has triggered a swing trade long signal which is now in play. In previous reports, I have been writing about the 8412 support level (.382 of recent bullish structure). This was the area to look for a bullish reversal pattern which appeared today which is the bullish engulfing candle also known as an outside bar. 8721 was the trigger, and I missed this entry because I was in the middle of a live presentation in the Lakewood Ranch area of Florida (What a great audience). There is still a chance to get long, but I will include the trade details on this report but on the SC site. With that being said, as far as the potential goes, the first resistance that this market needs to take out in order to prove that the buyers are back in control is the 9414 level which is a minor reversal zone boundary relevant to the 9177 peak. IF this market is going to produce a false breakout, that area is the most likely location which means prices above the 9177 peak are not the best place to initiate new positions. IF price can break above 9177 and close strong, that would open the door to the 9998 to 10696 resistance zone (.618 area relevant to the recent bearish structure). That is a good idea to consider locking in some profits, especially for people holding inventory from much lower prices. In summary, my goal for this brief report is to offer a heads up that a trade trigger has gone off and even if you missed it like me, there is still opportunity for those who understand how to quantify the risk at this level, especially for a swing trade. Check out SC for more on this. Special Thank You to the participants of the Lakewood meetup earlier today. And very special thanks to @Troybrave and his friends for the warm welcome and the extremely generous gift. I was overwhelmed with the warmth and reception of this audience.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
23
BTC :- 4HR Higher High - Higher Low FormationBitcoin has taken support at its previous area of demand zone :- 8300. Prices are within a bigger Flag Breakdown Downtrend but have begun forming a Higher High and Possible Higher Low Formation. Target for the Next Leg of up move will be confirmed once we break the higher high and then its a throttle all the way to the Higher High Target of 9985. 9985 coincidentally is not the target for the next leg up but also the line of Daily Resistance. Such matching of targets usually work in tandem.
Long
by Akshath1994
BTCUSD: Further Strength Limited Until Trend Line Break?BTCUSD update: Price peaks at 9177 high while the next retrace into the 8400 area is in progress. This is where I am anticipating the next higher low formation, which I will interpret as a sign of strength that can lead this market out of the persistent bearish momentum that been holding it back for some time. Keep in mind the higher low formation is not the only scenario that can appear and part of having a flexible mindset means considering the other scenarios that can also unfold. Having a plan of action for each scenario is what puts you ahead of the herd and allows you to capitalize on an opportunity or protect yourself from an adverse move. The higher low followed by a pin bar, or reversal combo at the 8412 support (.382 of recent bullish swing) is one scenario. Other scenarios include a retest of the 7776 area (a previous reversal zone boundary) followed by a reversal candle and the extreme low (failed low formation) at the 6941 level followed by a reversal candle. Each of these scenarios offers an opportunity to participate in a broader higher low formation. What needs to happen next if this market is going to continue higher is the bearish trend line that is now connected by the 9177 high needs to be broken. As long as price trades below it, bearish momentum is likely to continue. In summary, like I have written before, analysis and trading are two separate processes. Trading has to do more with making a decision: how long do you want to hold for, on what signal to buy, where to place the stop and target, and what is the target size? Your evaluation of the trend and the levels serve as a guide to help you answer these questions, and if you cannot answer them before you place a trade, you really should stay out until you have a better understanding. I am waiting for a particular candle formation and trigger in order to go long and capitalize on the higher low. IF the signal materializes, the trade details will be available on the other site. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
14
BTCUSD: Kicker Formation Begins New Movement Toward 10K?BTCUSD update: Price jumped from the low of 7240 to 8717 in 48 hours which signals the possible beginning of the next broader bullish movement which can lead prices back to the 10K area. This market needs to prove it's new found strength by presenting a higher low formation. In previous reports I wrote about the significance of the reversal zones, especially since they are overlapping a major support area. These zones (which are contained by the red horizontal lines) are areas where reversals are high probability. When this market was pushing the lows, I specifically mentioned not to react, and instead plan ahead. Planning ahead means recognizing the significance of these levels, and knowing how you will act IF the market provides evidence that our hypothesis is true. That evidence came, first through the pin bar on this time frame, and then the follow through which is considered a "kicker" formation in candlestick terms. Even if you did not enter the market during this process, it should have been very clear to no longer be or think short. Now the questions is: Will this bullish momentum continue? Price is retracing slightly which is a good thing because this is where it must prove that it is no longer weak. It can present this evidence in a number of scenarios that you should be prepared for (planning ahead). The first scenario is the shallow retrace which can unfold from the current candle in the form of a small pin bar, especially if this configuration happens to also qualify as an inside bar (which it is at the moment, but has 14 hours to go so it still has time to change). The second scenario is the regular higher low where price retests 7776 area and generates a reversal candle. The third scenario is the failed low where price retests 7401 or 6941 and reverses quickly. The third scenario is the one that shakes out weak longs and sucks in oblivious shorts. IF price does not reverse after retesting the extreme low, then there is a bigger underlying problem in this market. Isn't the current swing high a lower high? And lower highs lead to lower lows? Yes to both questions but do not forget this has to be viewed in light of the context of the situation which carries more weight. The context is: This market is flirting with a major support zone, and just produced a significant price reversal formation. The fact that this reversal formation has appeared in a high probability area outweighs the structure of the previous short term trend (lower highs, lower lows). Knowing this is what allows you to anticipate and prepare, rather than react. In summary, analysis and trading are two separate processes that traders and investors often confuse as the same. In analysis we are evaluating and comparing market information in order to estimate what this market is most likely to do next, not what we are going to do next. Once we have a better idea and can assign loose probabilities or weights, we can then figure out what we are willing to do: Buy, sell or nothing. There are 3 bullish scenarios that I outlined above that can appear. There is one bearish scenario which is simply a dramatic new low. It is now up to you to recognize which scenario the market decides to choose, and then execute your trading plan. That plan which should be prepared ahead of time should define everything you do from the triggers to enter, the time horizon, size and level of risk along with profit target expectations. And out of all these factors, time horizon is most important because it provides the foundation for how you define everything else. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
23
BTCUSD: Don't Fall Asleep. 10400 Resistance Still In Sight?BTCUSD update: Extremely uneventful price action is now in progress which is very unusual for this market. Hovering just above the newly established bullish trend line, I interpret this activity as an absence of weakness which lends a more bullish bias to this market. Slow markets that go nowhere can be very confusing, especially if you make the mistake of looking at smaller time frames. Often when markets trade like this, participants are waiting for something. The Goldman Sachs attempt to pull the rug from under this market only highlights its strength in the form of an absence of selling. Weak markets do not waste time, they break support levels and quickly which is not happening. Like I wrote in my previous report, evaluating price action is about what the market IS doing and what it is NOT doing. The 8659 level is not only a reversal zone boundary, it is now part of the rising trend line established off of the 8342 low. Also the 8174 to 4983 support zone (.618 area of entire bullish structure) is just below which again points to a higher possibility of attracting buyers. Market context is a variable that is often overlooked by inexperienced traders. It comes in many forms, but on a chart, it includes factors like location, broad price structures and levels. Even though you can make an argument for a lower high in this situation, when viewed in light of the current context, you can make a stronger argument for a higher low in my opinion. So what is the best action to take in such a situation? No action, until the market reveals its intent. This market needs a strong catalyst to spark the bullish momentum which will be confirmed once price closes above 9616 decisively. IF it can do that, I would expect a push to retest 10422 within reason. The other scenario I am watching for is another failed low or fake out where price retests 8174 and reverses back up quickly. I do not know if any of these scenarios will happen, but I will be prepared in case they do. The market will eventually choose. In summary, quiet markets are actually a very good thing. They can offer opportunities that are not obvious to the herd just yet, which is the kind you want for longer term strategies. They not only offer a more stable environment to build and manage a position in, but they also offer a clear definition of short term risk. When viewed in light of the current context, a quiet market is a sign of strength because based on structure and news, this market should be going lower. Even if more bearish news comes out, and the herd reacts, I think that will only create more buying opportunities. The only factor that can keep you in this game, especially during very uncertain moments like this is your relationship with risk. If you are scared of losing, you will lose. If you are not scared to lose, you may still lose, but you also open yourself to the possibility of a win. The ability to take a loss is what keeps you from getting shaken out or second guessing in environments like this, not formations on a chart. This does not mean you should be irresponsible, it means you should always be considering what kind of risk you can comfortably take. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
52
LTCUSD: Positioning For The Next Breakout To 230?LTCUSD: Following BTC's lead and in the face of minor bearish pressure, this market is showing signs of renewed strength that can lead to a revisit of the 230 area or higher. In this report I will explain why the short term bearish momentum is misleading in this context. Yesterday BTC presented a situation where it failed to push lows which signaled that these markets are not as weak that they appeared just days before. The momentum that was driving the minor sell off has been absorbed within the broader support zones across the major coins. That sell off did not even come close to making any significant new lows, and instead has established another higher low formation (relative to the most recent bottom which is the 106 area in this case). That means? The bigger picture still has a bullish bias. In fact, the 161 to 137 minor support zone (.618 area relative to recent bullish swing) has not even been compromised as it overlaps the 186 to 137 major support zone (.618 of broad bullish structure). So even though the short term momentum has been bearish, this market is still maintaining a bullish configuration which offers a very well defined buying opportunity. I have been managing a position trade in this market for some time and will continue to add to it and lock in profits as these opportunities present themselves. How you position yourself for the next bullish leg all depends on how much risk you are willing to take. Since I have a position trade, I am willing to take much bigger risk. This means if price breaks below the recent swing low (which is now the reference point to define risk for a swing trade long), I will not exit my position. Instead I will wait for the next series of reversal signs and look to buy more. For short term swing traders, there is a clear set up here with a specific entry point and stop. Can you see it? These specifics will appear on this report on my other site. The initial target for this trade is the 225 area. Keep in mind a break out at this point can take this market much further. In summary, the bigger picture is where the bigger opportunities are. Less experienced traders make the common mistake of thinking the short time frames will offer better information in the form of "faster" signals or changes. They do not realize that the weight of this information is not equal and that the smaller the time frame, the less reliable it is, especially when trying to capture broader market moves. The smaller picture is still showing bearish momentum, which can be very misleading when it is within the context of broader support zones. It is still possible for price to retest the 161 level or lower, but I will view this as a buying opportunity, especially on any signs of failure like the one we just saw off of the 161 low. Understanding the context of the big picture is what makes this perspective and preparation possible. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
17