BTGUSD Buy this dip for rally back to highsBTGUSD
BTG took over from BCH at around 11pm est - as BCH topped out BTG took on the baton and ran higher and higer for the
next 5 hours as BCH headed back south. The patterns are similar on both charts, both tracking within a series of
parallels, a sell off the top pair and and a buy off the lower pair. It's ahving a problem at 305 and looks like it has to
unwind a little more before it can go again, ideally dipping back into the lower 2 parallels where it can be bought again
ahead of a possible good weekend rally in prospect.
Alternatively, buy on a break above the dynamic resistance line off the highs on a successful retest for rally back to highs
BTG stays good overall whilst it holds the parallels and should continue to be bought on dips until we see the lowest parallel
broken.
Highs
UKOIL: Brent testing support off the old highs. Strong stillBrent Crude Oil UKOIL
Brent recently broke the long term parallels that had carried it faithfully within its force ever since the lows at
44. Now it's almost exactly 50% higher, with a new high set at 65.70.
We were short on the break below the parallel and then closed out around 61.15 for around 90 pips profit. Good
thing we did. Bad thing we didn't go massively long again there with stops just below for a tiny loss if wrong at that
point. Easy to say now, and we would have in 'normal' circumstances, but that big broken parallel above was
stopping it from even being contemplated. What a shame. A parallel that had been so faithful for so long now let us
down with a poor technical signal (in hindsight only, unfortunately) for the first time since inception from the
lows. Sometimes even your best girl/boyfriend can let you down.
The resulting 450 pip rally has blown every bear clean out of the water, creating a massive impulse wave which is
contained within the parallels shown on the chart. It is now probing the intersection of the lower parallel with
fixed support at 64.25, the old highs - it's a buy here with stops below 64.15 for small loss if wrong. It's a sell again
when the upper parallel is tested . Brent remains strong whilst travelling within the impulse wave and only turns
near term negative again for test of 63.03 if the lower smaller parallel is lost at any point from here. Until we see
that happen, look to buy dips to this smaller parallel with stops below it by 15-20 pips
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: 12K And The Future(s)?BTCUSD update: Sitting on the high, this market is still poised to go higher. There are two extensions to be aware of: 12400 and 14750.
The CBOE is aggressive and will have the futures trading in a matter of days followed by the CME shortly after. No one knows how they will affect this market, or the alts, we have no choice but to wait and see.
Meanwhile this market does not really retrace. It almost seems too easy: "just buy and you will make money", "it's different this time", etc. I don't like to be the one to burst people's "bubble" but it is not different this time. The Dot.com era offered the same promise, and it delivered on it's promise, the internet has dramatically shaped the future and has presented limitless opportunities, but the equity markets experienced two serious corrections since then and the majority of internet stocks that existed 20 years ago no longer exist.
I do not know when this market will experience that magnitude of correction. The scope of my analysis covers short term price action, and there is still no sign of weakness. There are two levels just above where price can potentially reverse, but that is no reason to get short. There is 12100 which is the upper boundary of the reversal zone measured from the 8821 low. There is the 12400 extension which is measured from the 5400 low and then there is the 14700 (1.618 extension) projected from the 8821 low.
14700? Proportionally that is a potential target for this market (doesn't mean it will get there right away). As far as support goes, 10700 is the active support for this market (.382 of recent bullish swing). At this point, unless you are trading small time frames, I am using a break of this level as a signal for coming weakness. The break would have to be significant (price will have to be trading back toward 10102). A break by 100 or 200 points is not very meaningful in this market. And for those itching to short, the best time to start looking for setups is the retrace AFTER that break (and I would also wait until the futures are trading since this market is severely skewed by the inability to short and Tether).
Until then, momentum and structure are aligned for higher prices. Now, I keep getting messages asking if this is a good time to invest. In my opinion, no. Short term trading is one thing, risk is defined by near by levels and the position can be exited for relatively smaller losses. Investing implies holding which opens you to a ton of risk and uncertainty. Why buy highs? ALL markets correct, why not wait? It is amazing how blind greed proliferates.
In summary, the kind of price action that is occurring in this market is very unusual. And for me is a red flag. There are a number of factors that can come together and change things quickly: the futures which will open this market to institutions and a more balanced ability to short, and the Tether situation. I do not mind buying into a strong market, even with these potential threats, but IF I am going to take a swing trade long, I prefer to do so on my terms which means it has to be according to my plan. If the market will not meet my criteria, then I stay flat. I developed this plan to keep me out of trouble and to help me recognize when conditions are more favorable in terms of reward/risk. It is not meant to get me into every movement, instead it is a form of protection against impulse, opinion and emotion.
Comments and questions welcome. (Also quick note: It has been brought to my attention that my reports are not appearing where they should be and as a result, my viewership is seriously low. TV does not seem to be responsive to the situation,so I am wondering if I can get further feedback from the community. I am trying to figure out, is it my subject matter? Feedback would be much appreciated).
BITCOIN: BTCUSD Approaching highs - raise stops nowBITCOIN: BTCUSD
A fantastic day for bulls of Bitcoin has seen it rally back
towards the highs. No stops we hit on longs and after
problems gettting long here on Thursday and staying with it
before stops got hit. Friday was kinder, steadier. We are
many hundreds of points to the good here and need to protect
profits now...See those 3 fantastic continuation patterns it
hammered out during yesterday? Two strikes = 'hot' . All
three times. These are the signals we need to familiarise
ourselves with for the future..if you can
spot these you have a key to the future...For day traders the
nearest support is close at hand, at 11050 - failure here will
mean a quick fall to 10970 - and should that fail it will
comeback to 10638 where it becomes a buy again.
And if Bitcoin can hold up here at first support/11050 it will
then go on to test the high at 11390 - look to close out longs
here and only re-enter long on a break of the highs by 90
points looking to buy again on successful retest with stops
below 11200.
Swing traders who got long from much lower (9400-9500) are
showing about 1600 points of profit now in 25 hours ...use
11000 as a
stop, just under and buy back at 10640 if stopped out now.
Day tarders can use the upper paraallel of the top flag on the chart ...just UNDER 11000
Tick highs almost daily in Nasdaq CME_MINI:NQ1! Sell the new tick highs, as you can see there's no real momentum this past week, don't stay long but take profits!!
Bullish Pressure On BTCUSD Not Slowing DownFinally BTCUSD is at a new all time high which was expected to happen after we recognized end of a corrective set-back in middle of July. So far we can see a nice trend up confirmed by higher swing highs and higher swing lows; ideally that's an impulsive trend in progress, currently sill in red wave 3 which can see extension up to 3600/3800 area while market is above 2800.
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All our work is for educational purposes only.
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Inside Resistance Zone. Retrace ?ETHUSD Update: After the 241 resistance break, price has pushed into the 250 to 280 resistance zone that I have been writing about for over a week. The resistance is holding price back at the moment and this could be the beginning of the minor retrace back to attractive support levels.
The BTC breakout to all time highs is the catalyst behind this price push, what prompted that exactly I do not know because that information is not necessary for me to participate in these markets. I am only concerned with what price action is more likely to do next and it appears to be poised for a minor retrace.
I have been writing about the 250 to 280 resistance zone because it is relative to the .618 of the second half of the recent bear swing that took this market to the 136 low about two weeks ago. The zone serves as a good target to take profits and as an area to anticipate a pullback from. At the moment price is hesitating and I would welcome any pullback into the adjusted support levels as a buying opportunity.
The first support I am watching for is the 232 level. This is now the .382 of the recent upswing and must be maintained in order keep this bullish trend intact. If price retraces to this level and reverses, I would be expecting a higher high which should take this market into the next resistance zone in the 300s. If 232 breaks, then we are likely to get a deeper retracement into the 212 to 198 support zone which is related to the .618 of the recent upswing. If price trades back into this zone, I would still be bullish, but would expect more of a consolidation to follow.
IF there is no retrace, price can continue up into the next resistance zone of 306 to 349 (.618 of recent bear swing). It is a wide zone because the magnitude of the bearish swing measured is large. For the moment, this broader resistance zone serves as a reference point for short term profit targets. If you are in a long term position, that's fine, but locking in some profit along the way is never a bad idea.
Some may wonder, if this market is so strong, why not buy it now? It all has to do with the risk vs. reward. Buying highs always carries more risk of a pullback. If I buy now, where is the most sensible place to put my stop? The technical answer is around the 215 area. So that means I have to face around a 45 point risk for maybe a 45 point target (and that's being very optimistic since this market is more likely to pullback off of a high). I want to stack probabilities in my favor, not bet on long shots. I would rather buy at 230, with only 15 to 20 points of risk, and potential to reach the 300s. Along with buy setups in my favor and would rather watch my position slowly advancing in the green, then the other way around. Plus it is easier and a much better idea to add to a position when you are winning.
In summary this market is behaving in line with what the price structure has been saying for some time: strong. Since there is a greater chance of a retrace off the current resistance zone, I prefer to wait for a revisit to the 230 area to look for buy setups. The retrace may not happen, but I would rather stay out until the market offers more attractive reward to risk opportunities. As long as the lower 230 area holds, the uptrend that has taken this market to the current high will still in intact and keep the possibility open for a move up into the 300s.
Questions and comments welcome.
EURCAD LONG TRADEMy long trade, price broke out of my purple zone
and also its on its way to making new highs.
1.556 TP
1.51045 SL
Inside bar without any resistanceAs we all know, inside bars suggests a continuation of the trend or a reversal of it when forming on notable resistances/supports,
USTEC has continued its journey to the moon after the recent huge decline. Buying a stock after reaching an all-time high, after retracements, is alright. I've been holding two long positions for the past weeks with an open TP, and I will hold so.
//Jim Cramer is one of CNBC’s top stocks analysts and a former hedge fund manager. In an edition of Mad Money, Cramer explained that he is often inclined to buy stocks that have reached fresh all-time highs, providing they have been rising consistently, and have pulled back since reaching their latest high point: "When I'm ready to establish a position, I wait for a pullback to come that's at least 5 percent down," Cramer said. //
BITCOIN: BTCUSD Approaching the highs: caution hereBITCOIN: BTCUSD Aprproaching the highs and therefore becoming vulnerable to profit takers. Aim to do the same if long to lock in profits as old highs are tested and be prepared to go long again once the danger is passed, as per comment. You can draw in the upper parallel taking out the recent highs on 15 minute chart, same as bigger parallels on left of chart.
GBPUSD Long : Uptrend Continuation Long-Short-Long Short term Long into Resistance, Short Retracement to Lows, then Long to Next Resistance Highs.
Trend basics tell us that Up Trends are formed with Higher Highs and Higher Lows and for Down Trends we have Lower Highs and Lower Lows .
By marking the Highs and the Lows - Near, Next and Far - they serve as price points that need to be breached and then exceeded with closes to indicate a change or continuation in trend. Until they are breached, they serve as areas to enter trades measured by the risk tolerance that a traders account allows for and while opportunities are missed, risk is controlled or managed with position size especially for Forex.
This approach keeps charts clean and simple and trading decisions contained within risk parameters allowing small losses when wrong.
Bitcoin: Back to the highsBitcoin: Another test of the highs underway. This comment is already a little out of date - written and thought it was uploaded yesterday but some glitch and was out so never picked up on it until now. Doh. Anyway, the call has been good so far, so see no reason to pull it even if a little late now - it should hopefully complete the final part of the rally today. Suggest closing out longs at the top though and brave bears can short again from there but with a stop just 10 points above the highs.
$ACIA breakout, continued momentumWe had a nice long trade on $ACIA friday, we will be looking for the continued push tomorrow
S&P NEW HIGH COMING?S&P almost fully recovered the losses after BREXIT and now is looking for the next challenge,making new highs!
Daily gold overview I will try to monitor and post in comments section every day my view on gold. And call some trades for future if I see them. I will use for this just candlestick analysis and daily weekly monthly swing highs lows as well as some trend lines to prove for my self one more time how important those pivots are in trading no matter you long term trader medium term or inraday. Hope somebody will find some ideas what can by used in own trading system.
SHORT AUDUSD TP 800PIPS: BREXIT, RBA, FED & USDJPY HEDGEShort AUDUSD is in my top 3 FX Trades for several reasons:
1. AUD is considered a riskier G10 currency cross, so AUD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph).
- With Brexit concurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for AUD due to commonwealth connections. Therefore AUD is likely to come under pressure in the future as risk-off sentiment continues to dominate, as the US Election nears, Global growth worries continue (Japan, Europe, China) and Brexit/ uncertainty about further Euro Area exits continues to intensify - we can see Gold and US Treasuries continue to gain supporting the risk-off view and thus supporting selling AUD. Also, risk-off encourages $ buying as a safe haven deposit on the Brexit backdrop.
- Further, going into earnings season next week, historically risk currencies (AUD) perform poorly as investors seek safer assets to hedge against earning surprises, thus this helps AUD selling and USD buying. Plus, most investors will want to hold some $ cash in order to fulfil their earnings based equity trading, so this also helps the short AU trade by increasing $ demand relative to AUD.
2. The RBA Meeting on Tuesday the 5th is likely to be dovish, as 1) Brexit risks are weighed in on again, after supportive/ dovish statements from RBA members following the Brexit decision and 2) AUD Macro Environment has performed poorly since the last meeting and the May Rate cut e.g. Retail sales 0.2% vs 0.3%, Unemployment flat at 5.7%.
- However, I dont expect an RBA rate cut, as they cut last just 2 months ago in May by 25bps to 1.75% and their GDP print was firm at 3.1% v 2.8% yoy and 1.1% v 0.8% with Unemployment also stable (yet to see inflation), so I expect them to provide reassurance to markets with a strong dovish tone, with possible hints to a August rate cut - citing Brexit and looking forward to their end of July Inflation print as a gauge for further rate cuts. Nonetheless the dovish rhetoric should be strong enough to put pressure on AUD and tip the scales south supporting the AU short.
3. From a USD demand point of view, last week we saw USD lose 160pips against the AUD as Brexit Uncertainty negatively hit the Feds Rate hike cycle expectancy, flattening the curve in the front end which ruled out any hikes until Dec or 2017, fewer hikes = less USD strength.
- However, since the beginning of the week where brexit risks ruled out hikes in the near term, the end of the week managed to turn rate hike expectations around as Brexit likelihood decreased/ shifted into 2017. This helped the Fed fund futures curve recover/ steepen somewhat in the front end, with the implied probability of a hike increasing from 0% to 5.9% for both September and November, whilst the probability of a hike in December also steepened significantly from 13.3% to 22.3% with the probability of a 50bps hike being priced for the first time at 1.1%. This trend of Fed Hike recovery is likely to continue as long as Brexit risks remain subdued, so we can expect USD to begin to price stronger in the coming days/ weeks.
4. Technically, AUDUSD trades 100pips away from a key handle at 0.76xx which is a double top and may provide the ideal short area. Further, higher than that at 0.78xx is the 12 month high which is also potentially a great level to get short from as a double top
5. Volatility - 1wk, 2wk and 1m (-1.52, -1.57, -1.60) AUDUSD Risk Reversals all trade with a downside bias indicating put/ downside demand is higher than upside, so the option market net expects AUDUSD to come down over the above tenors.
- Out through the 5th, 6th, and 7th (post RBA) we see large notional OTM put options and open interest at 0.7365, 0.7440 & 0.7445 which supports the view that the RBA will be dovish and that AUDUSD is likely to hairpin around the 0.76xx double top level.
EURUSDmacro money margin market models momentum net offer ofset open order options paid pair patient pips portfolio profit pullback put quoStill waitingte rally range rate realmoney retail risk sector sell settlement short slippage spot stoploss swap swiss takeprofit technical trade trading trader traderslife trend unemployment value volatility wedge work
#GBPJPY CONTINUES TO SET LOWER HIGHS! SHORT OPPPORTUNITY?As man can see I drew a couple of normal trendlines and annotated all the highs. Will we continue to set a new LH or will we see a breakout? Leave a comment and like if you agree with the idea!
