XNGUSD- Bollinger / TTM Squeeze for Breakout LONGThis 30 minute chart of spot natural gas demostrates the indicators triggering / signaling a big
move as it gets underway. I missed the big move catching the two smaller scalpes earlier in the
day. For me, this demonstrates the value of one or more of these indicators armed with an alert
or notification to catch the move once it gets started. It also shows the value of detecting a
Bollinger band width and volatility contraction before the release. Price action is showing
a high tight flag pattern which could forecast a similar leg higher after sufficient consolidation
to ti reach the consensus equilibrium of buyers and short sellers as to what the price should be.
I will be one of those buyers adding again to my position which I expect to swing trade
at least the rest of this week. For those already with good-sized positions, some may elect
to sell some to take a partial profit. I am considering being more watchful of such a situation
also realizing that a short squeeze could get underway since XNGUSD as been falling for
sometime. Long-time shorts might decide this is the exit point to avoid further loss of
unrealized profits. If they do so they play into the hand of new buyers and those holding.
Buckle up, this could get interesting.
Hightightflagpattern
SMCI - consolidated - ? Continuation or ? Reversal SMCI has been on an impressive trend up since the first day of the trading year. On the 15
minute chart It had a healthy 12% pull back about February 22-29 but then rallied again on
a reversal upside to nearly the ATH of $ 1075 set on Friday 2/16. I note that traders like
to trade SMCI on Fridays and likely are chasing same day expiration call options. I know this
because I have been one of them. SMCI is now in a high tight bull flag pattern. Typically
this is bullish for another leg up of equal magnitude after consolidation. I will suppose
the probability of a breakout higher is 75% and breakdown 25%. I may play this with
a set of stop orders. A buy stop at $ 1030 and a sell stop at $ 1005 with a share proportion
set equally. When SMCA breaks from the consolidation one of the two orders will trigger
while the other will be in play until cancelled or triggered. My bullish bias is that the buy stop
will trigger and I will miss only a small piece of the price action in the initial continuation.
I will assess for a call option trade upon continuation. The volatility indicator helps me pick
entries with an alert set for volatility beyond the running mean either bullish or bearish.
VINC continuation play LONGHere on the 30-minute chart is my idea for the continuation of my VINC idea posted here before
the current breakout. Price is presently in a consolidation ascending regression channel .
The choices for a play are to wait for a break above or below the channel or alternatively
play the price action inside the channel. Since price is currently at the bottom of the channel
I will go long with a stop loss under the channel. Upon reaching the top of the channel I will
close half the position and then watch for a break of resistance or a rejection down and then
trade accordingly. Overall, I believe that this is a high-tight flap pattern and VINC is
accumulating gradually and will move higher when the accumulation saturates as per
Wychoff's theory.
VERX ATH on Earnings LONGVERX on the 15 minute chart demonstrates printing a high tight bull flag pattern in its
bullrun after the earnings report was a two line beat much like the one a quarter ago.
VERX has impressed traders including this one who got in on the ride early. I will trade
this like others recently with a similar pattern. I will hold during the consolidation and
watch for a break above the flag regression channel. I will add upon the break and
set a trailing stop loss of 5% upon a rise of another 5% keeping the profits safe while
underway. See my ideas on SOUN DUOL, VTYX and a few others. Review the link to
the pattern description here. See also my swing long trade ideas for this sector XBI and LABU.
CVNA- consolidation after the earnings gap higher LONGCVA on the 30-minute chart shows a high tight flag pattern after the big report of profit
on an annual report. Inflation is affecting auto stocks and recession is increasing the
number of used care purchases while inflation hangs in there. URLs for both a description
of the pattern and the news are embedded in the drawing. The RSI indicator shows a quick
move of the faster RSI line over the slower RSI line. The pattern is typically said to forecast
bullish continuation out of the consolidation. I will get shares at fair value in the consolidation
and follow price for signs of that continuation. Another observation of the consolidation
is the price getting above the third upper VWAP bandline then settling down onto the
support of the first upper line. I look to target 78 from an entry of 68 for a 15-18% upside
with risk constrained by the earnings report and current relative trading volume.