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Hike

FOMC Setup on EUR/USDThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to unveil another rate hike this Wednesday, December 19th 2018. Probability of a rate hike is quite high, as a neutral or easing federal funds rate would indicate "a need for stimulus" in the U.S. economy (God forbid the FED indicates weakness in the economy while the stock market is sitting just above critical support). A rate hike is an indication of tightening monetary policy, which fundamentally strengthens the dollar against other currencies. This will produce a down move on the EUR/USD (want to sell EUR for USD). If rates remain neutral (unlikely), expect the dollar to weaken considerably (up move on EUR/USD). If rates are lowered (unlikely), expect the dollar to weaken quite rapidly (up move on EUR/USD).
Short
by Derivati_Capital
1
EURUSD Revised Entry In lew of the Interest rate decision here is a new tactical entry for those who want to trade on the surprise factor. A hike is already priced in so no confusion there. The Euro shall decline a bit but not significantly. So the idea of going against the grain and buying up the euro before the hike has a much better potential in terms of RRR. Please I appreciate all comments even if you hate this analysis let me know. All feedback is good feedback. Trade safe trade well. Thank you.
Long
by fromzerotospyro
One last drop before the big push.It's kinda obvious for me that the USD will dominate CAD during the following months. With the increasing probability of 4 rate hikes from the FED and sluggish oil prices, I see nothing but weakness from CAD. Long term trendline approching, placed short entry at 1.32, SL at 1.33, TP at 1.28 (old resistance now found as support). Since the long term trendline could be pierced without significant resistance, I also placed a buy entry at 1.33 (with TP @ 1.38) Happy trading !
Short
by hercule5000
USDJPY Inverted Cup and Handle Again? March 20-24 Trading PlanFX:USDJPY broke the 50DMA once again and looking bearish in my opinion. The breakdown and downtrend is also supported by the moving averages on the hourly timeframes. Don't have any big positions as I expected it to retest the 114 breakdown level but it didn't happen 4H Timeframe View: FX:USDJPY tried to break the 200MA but it failed and continued its downtrend breaking the 113 support 1H Timeframe View: Looks like its consolidating after the 113 breakdown but I wouldn't discount a possible pullback to retest the 113 level and it would be a great short level if the downtrend continues. Preferred Entry: 112.9-113 Stop: 113.3 Profit: 111.6 But there is also a possibility that it would stay on this level until it once again breaks down. If that was the case then we can simply wait for either the 20MA(red line) or the 50MA(yellow line) on the 1H timeframe to reach the price and short it at the level if it doesnt break above it. If the 111.6 profit target is reached, we can take partial profits or move stops to profit as its possible FX:USDJPY will bounce on this area as it has done multiple times in the past or finally break that daily support Any feedbacks are appreciated!
Short
by SimpleMillennialAverage
6
Make XAUUSD Great Again! March 20-24 Trading PlanOANDA:XAUUSD has broken out of the downtrend after the 1260 rejection and with hourly timeframe moving averages confirming the trend change. Bulls are still in the game and it looks like it will have another try against the Wall of Trump resistance. No big positions as of yet as I expected a pullback that didn't materialize and it consolidated for 2 days straight after the FOMC breakout. 4H Timeframe View: OANDA:XAUUSD is sitting just right above the 200MA and its looking to be a firm support for the next upmove 1H Timeframe View: OANDA:XAUUSD is forming higher lows after the FOMC breakout which suggests buyer strength. The 1230 level/20DMA is still acting as a resistance but as long as the current momentum continues it will be great to take a long position if there will be a short pullback to the 1206-1207 level and if the said level holds. Preferred Entry: 1226-1227.5 Stop: 1223 Profit 1260 Just in case the level doesn't hold, we can look for a pullback till the 1219-1220 and take a long position if it holds. Preferred Entry: 1219-1220 Stop: 1216 Profit 1260 Any feedbacks are appreciated!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by SimpleMillennialAverage
7
Dollar Index Daily ChartThe dollar index on the daily chart you can see that we are now in a key area where it is testing resistance from February and November 2015, due to recent results from the US raising interest rates this has caused concern for investors and we have seen a big sell off, I believe we may see a big sell off again after the pullback to 99.26 0.382 fib or even gain strength and break back through the 0.236 fib at 101.00 and then break resistance as shown in the chart.
TVC:DXY
by Learn-2-Trade
Dollar Index gaps into interim resistanceThe DXY US Dollar Index has gapped into interim resistance following an intense round of FEDspeak seemingly aimed at boosting expectations of a March hike. Chance of a March hike was less than 33% just a few weeks ago, but both voting and non-voting members have embarked on a full blown communications offensive over the past week, pushing expectations up above 60% - The FED has never hiked when market expectations were below 70%. The index has cleared a major resistance confluence zone and looks set to continue higher over the coming weeks. Interim resistance lies just above here in the 102 round region, marked by Monday's high of 101.97 and the 61.8 fib at 102.07. A breach of there would target zone confluence near 103 round, with the 78.6 fib at 102.84 and the January 11 high at 102.95. The 101.40 - 101.80 zone, marked by the broken wedge top and 50% level at 101.53, should offer solid support over the coming sessions. A breach of 101.40 would suggest a false break and invalidate our bullish bias.
TVC:DXYLong
by MFXSCharts
Dark Cloud Cover at TL resistanceThe Aussie finished Friday lower, printing Dark Cloud Cover on back of stronger than expected annual wage growth in the US. Reversal candle occurred at falling wedge resistance / former support confluence and pair looks set to resume lower. Initial support is the .7296 - .7283 hourly zone, with a break below there confirming the top and targeting the lows above .7150. A break above .7365 would invalidate the set up and shift focus to the Dec 14 high at .7525.
Short
by MFXSCharts
USDJPY wedge breakoutDollar Yen has broken out of wedge consolidation in quiet post-Christmas trade and looks set to continue higher. Pair has been trending up at an average of 250 pips per week for the past 7 weeks, but has been stuck in consolidation since setting a new 10 month high on the 15th of December. Today's break above the wedge top opens the path to 118.66, with further gains above there likely. Initial resistance is a zone stretching from 118.35 to 118.66, with a break above there targeting round figure / 78.6 fib confluence at 120/120.10. Initial support is a zone stretching from 117.10 to 116.65, with a return to this zone neutralizing our bullish bias.
Long
by MFXSCharts
Looking to sell strength on cableThe cable continues to consolidate in the relative calm following the October flash crash. Pair is currently hovering above a minor trend-line, extending off of the October 28 low and may find support here and continue to range over the short term. Over the medium term; we're looking for a move lower, followed by bearish continuation and seeking to position ourselves appropriately. We'd like to sell any bounces towards 1.25; or if we are not so lucky, a 4h close below 1.239. Initial support is the 1.2360 - 1.239 zone; with a break below there targeting 1.3, followed by 1.2150. Initial resistance is the 1.25 - 1.255 zone; with a break above there invalidating our bearish bias and targeting the November highs above 1.2650.
Short
by MFXSCharts
AUDUSD enters former support zoneThe Aussie broke through long term channel support in mid-November; falling nearly 300 pips in 3 days, before finding support above 73. Pair has since retraced approximately 61.8% of the decline from 7580 and is testing the .7440 - 75 former support zone. We are looking for a turn lower from here and an eventual break below the 5 month low at 7285. Alternatively; a break above 75 would target the next former support zone at 7555 - 7610, butwe expect any gains to remain capped below there.
Short
by MFXSCharts