Bitcoin has lost About 80% of its value in previous cyclesThis post is just a review of the Bitcoin historical chart and I do not confirm or reject the findings of this analysis
Examining the drop% from its ATH in previous cycles shows that bitcoin has lost 80% of its value. Bitcoin is currently only 57% lower than its ATH. If this criterion is correct, Bitcoin should go another 23% lower than its ATh. That would be around $ 13,000
Historicalvolatilitypercentile
UAA longUAA long
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ATUS pushing the extremesNYSE:ATUS pushing the extremes of the 99.9% probability cone. Bids filled at $17.55.
Probability Cone is based on the Expected Move. While Expected Move only shows the historical value band on every bar, probability panel extend the period in the future and plot a cone or curve shape of the probable range. It plots the range from bar 1 all the way to bar 31.
In this model, we assume asset price follows a log-normal distribution and the log return follows a normal distribution.
Note: Normal distribution is just an assumption; it's not the real distribution of return.
The area of probability range is based on an inverse normal cumulative distribution function. The inverse cumulative distribution gives the range of price for given input probability. People can adjust the range by adjusting the input probability in the settings. The probability of the entered standard deviation will be shown in the middle when the "show probability" setting is on.
Bitcoin MidTerm and LongTerm AnalysisFinally, bitcoin broke its range and showed some life about it.
According to HVP and momentum, probably bitcoin creates a range between $ 10500 and $ 11500 . A Bullish Range for preparing for higher tests.
If a 4H candle closes below $ 10500 , it could test $ 10200 . and if that breaks, it could test $ 9900 ~$ 10000 . this 10k is a pivot level. So as long as bitcoin is above $ 9900 ~$ 10000 , it is bullish and this breakage is not a trap.