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Will history repeat itself? Interesting comparison from 08' & 22I was looking at the start of April 2008 through May 1st 2008, when I noticed similar price action from April 2022 through May 1st 2022. On both charts, at the start of April to the 1st May the price fell an average of 16%. Since I know what happened in 2008, I used the fib retracement to see how much of retracement the NASDAQ would go and how long it would take. On the left chart, you'll see NDAQ retraced back to the .618 level on Wednesday, May 7th. then got rejected by the 200 day moving average. The following week the CPI report for April was released Wednesday, May 14th which caused a huge dump that lasted to the third week of May. That dump was a total of 19%. That is insane! So, I started to think maybe the same thing will happen this current May 2022. It is very possible that history will repeat itself. I decided to fib retracement April-May exactly how I retraced it in 2008. According to my calculation it should take 7 trading days in May 2022 to reach the .618 fib level. That is exactly where the 50 day moving average is at price $172. This is the same day the April 2022 CPI report will be released Wednesday, May 11th. If we retrace by then and then later the market dumps 19% like it did in May 2008. The dump will hit a current major support level at $140-145 zone! Well isn't that a coincidence? That price level $140-145 became the major support on Jan 2021. The same year that inflation started to take affect on our economy. Could it be possible that we crash this May as a symbol to end inflation?
NASDAQ:NDAQ
by Trebor_Namor
2
TOTAL - One More CheckPoint To Go!Hello TradingView Family, this is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. I usually keep an eye on TOTAL to get a feeling about the overall crypto market bias. Just like I keep an eye on DXY when it comes to Forex. The bulls are clearly pushing the past 2 weeks , after rejecting our lower bound/brown trendline and green support. Then the bulls took control from a short-term and medium-term perspectives by breaking above the last minor highs, the upper red trendline, and the upper orange trendline. As mentioned in my previous posts many times, for the bulls to take over from a long-term perspective, we need a momentum Daily candle close above the last major high marked in gray. " One More CheckPoint To Go!" Interesting Times Indeed! Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why? All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by TheSignalyst
11
The Market at WarRussia Ukraine FUD is on all the news media and social media so today I dug up a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI on Tradingview. (It's pretty cool to go back and study the market since 1897 by the way.) One prevailing sentiment, especially after today's very muted reaction to the actual "invasion", is that the market will be fine as long as Putin does not proceed further. There is some historical justification to this sentiment. One of the oddities of the history of the market is that the stock market ROSE on Germany's invasion of Poland in 1939. It was only on the invasion of France, when things "got real", that the market had a major fear crash. I hope for no war at all and I do not think there will be one now from this. I think (I hope) it is well understood that war is the literal destruction of capital and lives; lives being the true capital of nations.
TVC:DJI
by norok
3
A walk down Ford's EV evolutionNYSE:F In regards to the chart - Leaving this here mainly as a visual in order to build upon a more expansive EV map throughout the year in 2022. Continued information outside what is represented on the chart image: A bit more history for those who are interested...time to step back to eh EV world in the 1800's...... Did you know Henry Ford was friends with Thomas Edison? Yes! In fact Mr. Ford was well aware that Thomas Edison had made an attempt to engineer battery technology for automobiles in the early 1900's. In 1884, Edison began a journey which was met with many denied patents and even lab explosions. He had discovered what was in essence early fuel cell technology based on the catalytic oxidation of carbon. By 1899 Edison, ONLY 4 years after the introduction of feasible gasoline based autos, his efforts were ramped up. Edison's belief was founded in the idea that EV technology could one day prove "more economical" than ICE counterparts. A battery with longer life, means to recharge, powerful enough to travel large distance, and light enough as to not be inefficient while supporting its own system. 1903- The newly established Edison Storage Battery Company was set to manufacture and sell "nickel-iron cells" and started to promote them for commercialization in transportation. This same year, Henry Ford made is 3rd attempt at starting a company - this time naming it Ford Motor Company. 1908 - Henry Ford introduces the Model T. Between 1908-1927 more than 15 million were produced. Was this poor timing on Edison's part to try and push EV tech on the world? The ICE age was born, America was captivated by the Model T. At this point in time ICE systems were much much more efficient than any EV tech that Edison had produced. Remember when I said Ford and Edison were friends? Well, Ford had worked his way to the position of chief operating engineer of the Edison Illuminating Company. Yes, Ford worked for Edison. A shared passion for innovation was their link. 1914- In the year prior over 180,000 units sold of the Model T only to be beat in 14' by over 250,000. Even while experiencing WILD success with the Model T during this time the NY Times quoted Mr. Ford by saying “Within a year, I hope, we shall begin the manufacture of an electric automobile,” in January 1914. “The problem so far has been to build a storage battery of light weight which would operate for long distances without recharging.” This is the same ideal and principle Edison sought after to solve. May 1914 - Mr. Ford said, “It’s coming.” And he was proclaiming an EV revolution in the works. “The electric automobile will be the family carriage of the future.” During this time Henry Ford’s wife Clara drove an 80-mile ranged 1914 Detroit Electric and was an early EV advocate. When ICE systems started replacing hand-cranks with electric-starter devices, the EV world at this time was stricken of a key selling point: ease of use. Unlike ICE at the time that needed to be started with a hand-crank, battery-powered automobiles didn’t take a lot of muscle to operate. The culprit to this was GM's Charles Franklin Kettering as he created the first electric starter for the ICE system in 1912, thus negating a big sore thumb (the crank start) for the ICE makers. After $1.5M investment into the EV idea by Ford, it was shelved until about the 1950's when battery technology was once again starting to be a focus of auto makers. 1960's - Environmentalism swept America. "Congress passed laws that served as significant precedents for future legislative action on pollution issues—for instance, the Clean Air Acts of 1963 and 1967, the Clean Water Act of 1960, and the Water Quality Act of 1965. During the 1960s, environmentalism became a mass social movement" . The Wall Street Journal reported in October 1966 that Ford Motor Co. made a “major breakthrough in battery research.” The company claimed that its new batteries – using sodium-sulfur chemistry instead of lead acid – could store 15 times more energy than before. 1968- Ford said that road testing of a new production electric car would begin. "Small motors might be mounted in the wheels." with its experimental all-electric Comuta minicar. This EV tech gave the user four 12-volt batteries that provided about 40 miles of range topped at 35 miles per hour. Environmentalism never died - it slowly grew as a movement until the 1990's and early 2000's when California really drove zero-emissions. 1999 - Fords invests $23 million to buy Think Global - a Norwegian EV company that had been around since 91'. After $100 million in battery development Ford began production of Think City - a 53 mile ranged lightweight 2 passenger car with a top speed of 55 mph. Unfortunately Ford gave this up in 2002 as they wanted to divert resources to the commercial end of the company. 1998-2002 - The EV ranger (and its coming back "rumors" after exciting) - this dream was crushed by the laxing of the California ZEV mandates. Most of these trucks (only 1500 produced) were destroyed by Ford and never got out to the publics hands. In the 2000's Toyota made a big splash with the Prius - a hybrid EV ICE system that captivated consumers. Ford's response after (sitting back and watching consumer reaction - this is key*) was to use the Focus platform for the fully EV car. "The EV variant, which went into production by 2011, used a 23 kilowatt-hour battery pack officially rated to provide 76 miles of range. When it was introduced, the Focus Electric was the only pure EV that looked and drove like a so-called normal car."...."Even as Ford increased the size of the battery in 2017 to 33.5 kilowatt-hours – expanding its range to 115 miles – the Focus Electric was an also-ran. All told, Ford sold about 9,300 units before the company killed the Focus Electric (and most of its cars) in April 2018." Fast forward through the hybrid era, we get to 2018 when Ford released an image for the first vehicle to be produced in the company’s new EV era. The profile of a Mustang-inspired 300-mile electric SUV was a huge step forward into the transition to EV by an ICE auto maker. 2019 - "DEARBORN, Mich., April 24, 2019 – Rivian today announced an equity investment of $500 million from Ford Motor Company. In addition to the investment, the companies have agreed to work together to develop an all-new, next-generation battery electric vehicle for Ford’s growing EV portfolio using Rivian’s skateboard platform." TLDR: Lets ask a question: Is Ford really as behind the curve to EV as we are led to believe? IMO ABSOLUTELY NOT. Ford, since DAY 1 has always known this era would come. It is not a surprise at all. In fact, I truly believe it a welcomed transition - a 120 year long process gives you A LOT of time to build ideas on..... All sources are recorded and can be sent if requested ( I cannot post a list of all 22 hyperlinks here)
Editors' picks
NYSE:F
by OccamsPhazer
15
CRO oscillating against BTCLast time, we had 87% drop against BTC with CRO. Historically, it is more probable that either CRO will drop or BTC will rise proportionally more against CRO. - is this behaviour an anomality or is it because Crypto.com can control and affect CRO the most? - no support with moving averages (illustration with 100W MA) - volume not increasing - if CEO remarks is to listen, the Q1-Q2 will be bad and then the end of year will be good --> history would support this, ideas? Two chances: parabolic run or bearish momentum taking over. Hard to believe that accumulation would last very long or it would mean a real fight between bulls and bears. No financial advice.
Short
by hhhhhhhhh9
BTC Accumulation still 200 days or parabolic soon?I don't want to be bearish but there is a chance that we are going sideways until the summer and the parabolic bull run gets extended. We have been undergoing two massive accumulation periods now in 2020 and 2021 -- the correction can be massive. MACRO - FED alarming about interest rates - Stock market taking about 10-15% hits ----> - FAANG taking hit SHORT-TERM - Superbowl coming - Crypto.com adverts coming - Crypto.com Exchange US coming No financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by hhhhhhhhh9
1
Scenarios of ALTCOIN parabolic run 2022There are multiple ways for parabolic run of ALTCOIN season: 1. volume accumulation until explosion 2. getting long-term RSI over 50 and then explosion 3. explosion without new volume and without long-term RSIs to catch up If 1-3 occur, NEXT 5-11 DAYS CAN BE EPIC! 4. If cycle gets extended, be ready for the parabolic run to get postponed If 4 occurs, be patient! I think the scenarios 1-2 and 4 are more close to reality but scenario 3 is also possible. No financial advicec.
E
by hhhhhhhhh9
BTC scenarios with Interseason ModelThere are multiple scenarios for BTC. We will soon see which theory holds: 1. 4 years' cycle theory (rejected?) 2. Extended cycle theory with diminihsing returns or new idea 3. Interseason model where the only thing that matters are the lower lows during inbetween seasons and not bull runs and ATHs: bull runs become less influential against the bear runs as increasingly number of people can not afford to own 1 BTC, a phycholocial level to maintain the bull runs, which is not possible when/if BTC is making new ATHs No financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by hhhhhhhhh9
BTC bear runs about 30-70D by Decision Point Momentum OscillatorThe BTC bear runs: - are about 30 to 70 days in BTC measured by Decision Point Momentum Oscillator. - have become about 10-20 days longer in this cycle than in 2014-2018 cycle - are quite rare but have become more common than early days If history repeats, current correction may last 20-40 days as measured by Decision Point Momentum Oscillator, given the above context that they have become longer. No financial advice.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by hhhhhhhhh9
Stock Market CrisisHello my friends, today, im gonna show you the biggest falls of stock market SPX. First fall was in 1987 , stocks dropped over 20% in one single day, incredible. Market got back in 22 months. This day (19.11.) is always called " Black Monday ". The second fall was 9 years after "Black Monday". In august have SPX dropped about 15% . There were a lot of reasons, but the main reasons are Asian economic crisis, debt default by Russia and plummeting oil prices . we was back in 5 months. The worse crisis came in 2001 . This crisis is also called " Dot Com Bubble ". All technology companies have dipped and SPX was down 50% . Market got back in 7 years. Right after market got ATH (All-Time-High), market again dropped over 55% . Reason was american type of mortgage called " Subprime ". A lot of investing banks have bankrupted. One of them was Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns . This crisis was one of the biggest opportunities that ever happened, because properties were really cheap . Market was back on his feet in 6 years. In 2018 dropped market over 15% ? because of interest rate hikes . Market was back in 8 months. The last crisis was an year ago, Covid-19 . Small companies have bankrupted . Market dropped over 30% . Back in 6 months. Okay guys, seems we are at the end, thanks for reading, hope you admire it, if yes, you can support me by Like and also you can Follow me, because i will do these things really often.
SP:SPX
by TommyTK247
14
COTI - Will History Repeat Itself?Hello TradingView family, this is Richard. I find COTI chart interesting. I have been holding/following this one for a year now and noticed that lately COTI is respecting the inverse head and shoulders pattern well lately. We are no doubt overall bullish trading inside the two blue trendlines forming a rising broadening wedge. Previously COTI approaches the lower bound / blue trendline, formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, and traded higher. This happened twice! Are we going to see it happening a third time? We are waiting for the right shoulder to form, then buy on the gray neckline break upward. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
24
$BTC/USD Moon Trading & Technical AnalysisBlessing Moon Trading family, may you are in peace and having a great day full of profits and love! I am here as usual to help you to understand the dynamics behind Moon Trading strategy and to check how our entries are doing so far since the Full Moon. Entry: $40.600 SL: (usually) Trailing Stop of 5% (but this time I am not using) TP: considering the historical data that I shared in the last idea, it could easily be $57.800 Even after the fall all the currencies had with Evergrande's news, we are still a nicely almost %6 up. But, if you were using Trailing Stop of %5 and your SL wasn't triggered, you could have taken profits of %11 with the peak of the previous days around the Full Moon. If you were trading with leverage, multiply that for the number you were using. That easy is to be profitable with Moon Trading, without taking unncesary risks with your investment and always taking smart and carefully thought entries. How can I take a careful and smart entry using Moon Trading strategy? Well, if you see in this chart, the RSI was giving a buy signal in the daily chart. Every single time around the Full Moon day that I see this buy signal, always the price just keeps going up, even if there are some strong catalysts to bring the price down, as it happened the last couple of days with Evergrande in China. Should I only base my entries on RSI and the day of the Full Moon to open long positions? Well, I like also to use MACD, the historical data of the same Full Moon the last years, what is the expected performance of the price according to this, and also to keep a close eye on DXY and S&P 500 which give together a powerful information. Whenever you see the price of the American Dollar going down, you will see cryptocurrencies in general but Bitcoin in particular going up. If the stock market is still opened, it will impact even more, because whatever happens to S&P 500 usually affects in a great manner to cryptocurrencies. This could be due to the players that are present in both markets: hedge funds, institutional traders and many other reasons, such as algorithmic trading and goverments trying to manipulate the market, whales closing massive positions to take profits before they need to break even due to a high volatily in the market, etcetera. Once you see the RSI + MACD + daily volume giving you a buy signal, and the S&P 500 in a bullish trend, together with the DXY in a bearish trend, that is a great great time to take an entry. Also I consider personally that is very wise to keep an eye on the news around the macroeconomy and crypto related topics, which together usually operate as powerful catalysts for the prices. Did you take this entry? If not, according to all what was mentioned before, you are still in a great moment, just remember to do your own diligent and conscious research. This is not financial advice but for educational purposes only. May you have an extremely profitable 2 weeks between the Full and the New Moon the 6th of October. PS: remember that we have a Moon Trading channel (@MoonTradingTA) where I share a lot of news, tips, analysis and more, join us!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by nicolashuljich
2
Wish i have an eye on youImo the upcoming months till the EOY will be the most critical in Wish history as a stock. Key points 1. 12 months from IPO date (meaning towards EOY) we have a new lock up period for earlier stage investors, do you think they want to sell at 7s even if the company is sinking i think there must be a play first with so much retail eye on it as well. 2. Are all the bad news baked in the price? and was 6s a big bear trap? around end of September i think we will know. 3. Awaiting some major app changes/ business model changes / new CFO 4. Retail is still buying and holding as i read all over the internet, that's a (-) in the short term price action no matter the technicals and fundamentals. Major scenarios in my mind 1. Wish is sinking and this will become a zombie company and we all felt in the trap, no hard feelings can happen to anyone, take your losses & lessons and keep walking. 2. They are about to sell it to one of the big guys for at least the IPO price imo 3. They are about to turn the ship around Now if the case is 1. and taking into consideration that WSB retail has an average price between $8-12 then probably you are sitting on at least a -50% decline ( PAIN ) If the case is 2. then the potential upside is 3-4x If the case is 3. the potential upside is at least the ATH meaning 4-5x What are the probabilities in favor on 1 vs 1&2? Do your DD and decide... *This is not an advice to buy or sell, just random thoughts from a person who started buying wish at 8s before WSB mania and Zack Morris pump.
W
by Philoslother
3
JICPT| jobless claims fell to push US10Y yield higher! Hello everyone. I kept a close eye on the job data as it is the major indicator that tells how soon Fed may hike the interest rate. Last Friday's better-than-expected job report pushed US 10Y yield up by more than 6%, weighting on Gold price. Today's jobless claim was in line with the strong job report. It fell for a third straight week. The number of insured unemployment claims, a measure of continuing jobless claims, fell to 2.866 million for the last week of July. That is the lowest level since mid-March 2020. A strong sign of continuation of economic recovery. I expected stock market to go down a bit, but it seems market has already priced in the news, with NQ and S&P moved between loss and gains. I post the three underlying line chart again as below, to visualize the relationship among NQ, Gold and US 10Y yield. It looks NQ is less sensitive to the treasury yield than gold from late July. Nasdaq basically has been flatten(choppy) for some time, lacking clear guidance about where to go. The next big level for the yield is 1.41%. If it is firmly conquered, the yield is back to its new range again. With huge possibilities of testing the 2% pre-pandemic level, stock market will then be under pressure. But don't be panic, things might go like this based on what happened last time back in 2014. 1. The Fed will be very specific about its intentions around tapering its QE program in advance to minimize the impact on the markets. The current buying amount is 120B per month. 2. Tapering is likely to be very gradual. In 2014 when Fed tapered for the first time, it reduced the monthly purchases by $5 billion per month for Treasuries and MBS each. The full tapering process took 10 months to complete. 3. Tapering does not mean the treasury yield will go higher. Please refer to the chart below. From Dec. 2013 to end of 2014, you can see the US 10Y yield actually went down with the tapering. Gold was down whilst Nasdaq was up in a steady move. So, don't overreact to tapering. Things might be different this time as we've been through this before. Hopefully, what I shared here can inspire you to do your own research and develop your view about what will happen. There are always two voices, bullish and bearish. What do you think? Give me a like you think it's useful.
TVC:US10YLong
by JICPT