Gold is clearly to buy! Before any trade, it is necessary to see the behavior of the market. The gold here (daily) is clearly not to sell , the line which tells us the story of it is ascendant.
History
SFET 155% Revenue IncreaseHistory says SFET will spike and retrace roughly 50% of the original move. I like the $1.50 area to load up and wait for the move backup to PT1 $1.69. Not much to say about this ticker. It's more or less an easy 10% based solely on previous moves with small volume from the increase in revenue.
S&P500 - Looking back to 2001. This is a pretty short vid. I'm looking back to 2001 to see what happened, to cautiously draw some ideas about what may happen in the 2020 bear market. The present picture is very different, of course.
2020 is showing a faster deeper dive. The SPX has recovered to a 61.8 fib. It could go higher.
If it heads south, it's impossible to say how far south.
Is the history repeat himself can we see 4.5 K again ? Is the history repeat himself can we see 4.5 K again ?
The fascinating history of derivatives!I do not know how many people are interested in this. I know I am.
I am not a historian, I am exposing here what I know, some of it might be inaccurate.
For those that do not know a derivative is a financial product derived from an underlying asset or reliant on it.
So in other words currencies, indices, bonds, interest rates, commodities, stocks.
65 million years ago or more: Primates
25 million years ago: First hominoids (apes). Bipedalism & loss of body hair speculated to happen 5-7 million years ago.
4 million years ago: First Australopithecus. Said to be as smart as modern chimps (I don't know if other apes 4 million years ago were smarter or not).
2.5 million years ago: Homo genus. Homo habilis. Not the first to use stone tools, but they are more advanced. Start of the paleolithic (old stone age).
2 to 0.5 million years ago: different human species. Not sure if sapiens descends from habilis or erectus or both. First known use of fire by Homo Erectus.
1.2 million years ago skin pigmentation appears, probably because of a megadrought. Sweating is older than this I think. I don't know much about the evolution of speech, stamina, opposable thumbs etc. I know the world temperature is in a downtrend for the past 50 million years. I don't really know all the ice ages and everything. Alot of very big very strong mammals with low intelligence disappeared. CO2 levels started being really very low. It is likely in my opinion that with the glacial periods, the droughts, the low CO2, apes had to get smarter, as well as start hunting meat (homo species have the digestive system of herbivores but consume meat) at some point using the help of dogs (not sure when that first started, but at least 15 thousand years ago). Human species might have started to save food for harsh times that I don't know.
Eating meat (eating everything even bone marrow and potatoes perhaps) allowed humans to make evolutionary leaps because they spent less time looking for food and eating.
Tribes might have traded with each other I don't know.
0.8-0.3 million years ago: Neanderthal, Denisovan
0.5 million years ago: H. Sapiens, a champion, is born. The species starts its path to absolute world domination and Super Apex predator, dominating all biomes, land, sky, upper ocean, the depths too, and even the bacteria living deep down in earth crust.
300,000 BC: Earliest evidence of long distance trade network. It is highly likely I think, that short distance trade networks precede that.
From wikipedia: "The use of barter-like methods may date back to at least 100,000 years ago. There is no evidence, historical or contemporary, of a society in which barter is the main mode of exchange; instead, non-monetary societies operated largely along the principles of gift economy and debt. When barter did in fact occur, it was usually between either complete strangers or potential enemies."
Yes, debt is pretty old. Everything that was invented was for a reason, because it made sense, and was necessary.
Buying cheap to sell low might be very very old...
Possible more than 100,000 BC: Brace yourselves... Some people think money evolved as a convenient way to replace barter (I have rice I want apples he has apples but wants something other than rice...) but this has not much evidence, and a theory that makes more sense is since it all started with IOUs which can be hard to keep track of (plus there's no proof) then money was first a debt and later became a medium of exchange and (lol) a store of value (I guess we devolved).
10,000 BC: With CO2 levels going up and the climate improving, agriculture appears (probably for the first time).
8000 BC: Oldest evidence of derivatives.
Clay tokens used in Sumer (Iraq) as forwards or futures. Climate was not constant, yields would fluctuate. So it makes sense that they needed a way to hedge against fluctuations in supply.
5400 BC: Earliest "City", Eridu, in the Iraq region, not a city by our standards but they considered it so.
~3000 BC: Mathematics history begins in the region of Iraq/Egypt/Syria/Turkey.
3000 BC: The mesopotamian may be the first to develop a large-scale economy using commodity money.
The shekel, a specific weight of barley. They had an advanced economic system with rules on debt, credit, contracts, private property, full blown capitalism...
Urban Revolution: When rural villages turned into urban societies. It all began back then...
Long distance (between different cities with different "kings") trade is regular.
Obviously, writting was required.
Iraq 3500 BC
Egypt 3100 BC
India/Pakistan 3000 BC
China 2500 BC
"The civilized life that emerged at Sumer was shaped by two conflicting factors: the unpredictability of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which at any time could unleash devastating floods that wiped out entire peoples, and the extreme fecundity of the river valleys, caused by centuries-old deposits of soil. Thus, while the river valleys of southern Mesopotamia attracted migrations of neighboring peoples and made possible, for the first time in history, the growing of surplus food, the volatility of the rivers necessitated a form of collective management to protect the marshy, low-lying land from flooding. As surplus production increased and as collective management became more advanced, a process of urbanization evolved and Sumerian civilization took root".
1750 BC: Code of Hammurabi , the first lawyer book. It set rules on contracts & on trading including "finance". We still have copies!
Who knows how many traders profitted off spreads arbitrage speculation and more back then.
First derivative exchanges (in Babylon temples), very likeky to have lasted 1000 years or more.
3000BC-300BC: Evidences of derivatives used in other areas than Iraq but no market/exchange that we know of.
500 BC: Thales said to have made a fortune with a put option on oil back then. He speculated on options over the counter, as there were no known exchange (Greece).
330 BC: Alexander army/followers notice derivatives and see their advantage, the concept makes its way to Greece & Rome.
Which is why it is very likely Babylon exchanges lasted more than 1000 years (1750BC to 330BC at least).
300 BC - 500 AC: Evidence of derivative trades, but I don't know if there were markets, all was probably OTC.
476 AC - 1492 AC: The dark ages in Europe. The Arab world have their age of enlightement but I don't know about finance there. The rest of the world doesn't make any progress in that area as far as I know. CO2 levels dropped and times were tough. Hunger and scapegoating is common (middle aged and old women with no husband were seen as useless mouths to feed and often ended being called a witch then burned or drowned, the arab world developped polygamy to adapt to high male mortality so afaik they didn't burn their women). The church before the tough times of low CO2 used to say about people that accused someone of witchcraft that they were supersticious uncivilised pagans.
The church sees derivatives & interests as "gambling" and "evil", so it becomes clandestine.
Not a very interesting period prone to advancements, not much in science, not much in standard of living, maths, finance...
Some exceptions: Late 1200s Monty Shares, 1300-1800 Loggia in the Piazza dei Banchi.
1 big exceptions: There was a gigantic futures operation. Ran by the Church. Give them money against a sacred contract for eternal life. It is a form of futures contract.
1530: Charles V of the Netherlands helps bring back a derivatives market.
1531: Antwerp Stock exchange (Hurray).
1571: Ancestor of the London Metal Exchange.
1637: Tulip Bubble
1730: Dojima Rice Exchange (and first known use of Technical Analysis)
1789: French revolution. Followed by terror, Napoleon etc.
1800: CO2 level pops off. Time to accelerate progress.
~1800: Industrial Revolution, emergence of labor (arguably "wageslaving").
Shortly followed by Karl Marx, and the 20th century will be the century of socialism & communism & fascism.
In particular the terror communism following the russian revolution, similarly to France.
First time in history where capitalism is questionned?
Early 1800s: The UK bans regular slavery (wage labor or wageslavery means this is not required anymore...)
At the time labor was compared to slavery, there was no argument against private property or capitalism thought.
1848: CME CBOT. Not sure when stocks only had their exchange and when commodity futures did. FX never did until recently but most of the trading is still OTC I think, with a lot of swap trading thought.
1945: Gold standard, following the great depression and WW2 result of high inequality and the Reichbank money printing.
1971: Gold standard abandonned, back to FIAT money printing and inequality uptrend.
1990s: Trading makes its way to the internet
2000: I am not sure but I think this is when "macro trading" (Oil, world economy, FX) got big. Retail trading from home develops. Everything got more and more correlated as a result.
2010s: As an answer to wild money printing, in particular after 2009 bank bailout, new improved crypto currencies are created, in particular Bitcoin.
Still FIAT currencies, and not meant to be store of values if I remember Satoshi whitepaper correctly, but with a limited supply as well as no central control to prevent what happened in Zimbabwe & Germany. Exchanges (crypto ones) are completely online and anyone can be a market maker, money transactions are (well depends on the crypto) quick simple fast.
Crypto exchanges are open 24/7!
My investment historyListen to my super boring investment life history, if you like. From the dot com bubble and financial crisis, to the everything bubble crash we are in right now. Where I made huge mistakes, and where I dodged a bullet or two.
(Modern Economic History) The Crash before the Crash? There are several types of "Crashes before the Crash"
Types of "Crashes before the Crash" Include:
1. "Fundamental Collapse" A foundational collapse where everyone is suppose to learn an important economic or philosophical "lesson". An entire Era and "economic school" collapses and "students (traders)" never return to class for at least a semester? Considered an "essentially" collapse where everyone knows something was going wrong and yet they still allow the collapse!?
2. "Popular Crash" or "Sudden and Quick Collapse". (which also includes sudden computer or mathematical algorithms high frequency collapses)
3. Controlled Crash (slow economic collapse)
4. Euphoric Collapse (blips and glitches) "Economic Echos" and "general taps and reminders from god"
All of these types of Crashes or Collapses can be very painful over a long period of time. Sometimes for 20 to 30+ years like the "Great Depression" that lasted into the middle 1955's (and all grandparents still remember). These types of crashes can also be about "food" and "all life on earth". Simple Controlled Crashes can also last 2 or 3 years like in ones that started in 2000 and 2008.
"crash before the crash"?
:(
Watch Out BitcoinWatch Out Bitcoin
10 APR 20
With so many people watching Bitcoin I begin to wonder what it is they’re watching for. Are they only watching today for tomorrow or are they reviewing the past to keep other views open for observation.
While action is slow I like to go back and verify previous signals like the gravestone doji we were left with at the end of August 2019.
If you’re asking yourself what a gravestone doji is it is a bearish reversal candlestick pattern that is formed when the top stem of the candle is greater than 60% of the candle height and the stem below the body is less than 5% of the body height. The color of the doji candle is irrelevant; it can be either red or green. It is a stronger signal if the gravestone doji is red and at the top of the trend. The opposite of a gravestone doji is a dragonfly doji and often has the opposite effect. We’ll cover that later in more detail another time I’m sure but I’ll add this reminder. It is also a reversal signal.
So after seeing the August 2019 gravestone I knew to be aware of the possibility that Bitcoin price could go lower. Then when I saw the next gravestone doji on the weekly ending March 8 I knew I should let up on some of my Bitcoin holding and expect a possible lower entry point. I let go around 7300. We all know what happened next.
With the climb Bitcoin has made since then it is easy to gain doubt and want to buy back in before the price really rockets. Did I jump back in around 4k? No. It was no longer a falling knife but it was still spinning and the following direction was in direct contrast to the study. That’s another reason all the other tools I use are so helpful and allow me to take it one day at a time with a clear and open mind concerning the facts I have before me.
So which will we see first on the daily chart? Will today’s candle turn into a dragonfly doji or will another gravestone doji confirm the course we are on? I’m keeping my powder dry. If Bitcoin has reversed and heading to $100K it will make little difference if I get in at 4K or 9K as long as I’m not losing either.
Happy Trading Everyone.
Thank you for letting me shares my Bitcoin Study. I hope it helps you see the path forward in all your trades.
Remember. This is not trading advice. It is for Educational Purposes only. Follow me if you wish. I do not use Twitter or Face Book. Please engage the like button and add your comments below.
Is it SDT for Bitcoin?Could Bitcoin pull above the 21 EMA and perhaps spring to a new ATH? Considering the 21 EMA has been very supportive in the past there is no reason to believe it couldn’t happen. Especially this close to the halving, Right? Of course from where we are right now in the area of 6800 we would have to see a rise of just over 190% to reach a new ATH. That's not a bad return!
Staying with the trend however we can see we would only need to drop off about 43% to see a new phase low or; about 54% to see a new low in this Elliott Wave correction cycle that began in December 2017. At a 60% drop we should see support from the 100 EMA and hopefully it will be off to the races once we get that support.
What is the ADX trying to say? It would appear that the breadth line (W) continues changing from holding steady to just a small pick-up meaning more people are becoming interested. Unfortunately the divergence (B) indicates the support of that interest in the sense of investment strength is waning. Les cash coming to the table. Also waning is the bullish sentiment (G) while the bearish strength (R) is certainly picking up strength, perhaps to take us to our soon to be told destiny.
Remember. This is not trading advice. Follow with me if you like, engage the like button and please add your comments below.
What will the chart look like next week?I looking at things up close enough I can see whats going on on a day to day basis with most things.
Here I have to wonder will Bitcoin head higher or will it head higher.
As always I like to keep my mind open for the possibility of any outcomes. We can only do that with the data in hand and not our feelings or our girlfriends advice unless she's a unicorn and they just don't exist.
Where does the Wave go from Here?February ended with that gravestone doji and was the first indicator of what has recently played out for Bitcoin. Where or where do we go from here? Well, tried and true is what the Elliot Wave is a standard.
I'm just sharing a look at where my trajectory is when this is posted. Part of work I started back in Aug 19. It'd not final and it should not be taken as advice nor prediction. It's for educational purpose, is material and that's all.
BTCUSD LONG History repeats itself and thats just how it goes !
If btc survives and doesn't break 3500$ support then we are on a big uptrend and the target will be 100,000-150,000 before 2024 so 2-3 years from now.
Novavax (NVAX) - Vaccine Testing - SARS, MERS, SARS-CoV-2 (2019)This is an interesting idea based on outbreaks of SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 (2019).
Novavax successfully created vaccines for SARS, MERS, and are on track to create one for SARS-CoV-2 (2019) - ir.novavax.com
Vaccine in development for SARS-CoV-2 (2019): seekingalpha.com
Is this a good investment? If the vaccination is successful and/or coronavirus outbreak continues, it could trend upwards significantly.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my own opinion based on research.
Important Notes: For your own safety, the CDC recommends you WASH YOUR HANDS FREQUENTLY. COVER YOUR MOUTHS WHEN YOU COUGH/SNEEZE.
DJI and SPX500 History: 1929 Parabolic ManiaOnce again, notice how orderly and well-respected the trendlines are throughout a 21 and 24-year expansion. Show these US stock market charts to anyone who tells you that technical analysis doesn't work.
Study these time periods and become well-acquainted with the stock market parabolas throughout history.
Candlestick Definition History
Candlestick charts are thought to have been developed in the 18th century by Munehisa Homma, a Japanese rice trader. They were introduced to the Western world by Steve Nison in his book, Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques. They are often used today in stock analysis along with other analytical tools such as Fibonacci analysis.
In Beyond Candlesticks, Nison says:
However, based on my research, it is unlikely that Homma used candle charts. As will be seen later, when I discuss the evolution of the candle charts, it was more likely that candle charts were developed in the early part of the Meiji period in Japan (in the late 1800s).
Description
The area between the open and the close is called the real body, price excursions above and below the real body are shadows (also called wicks). Wicks illustrate the highest and lowest traded prices of an asset during the time interval represented. The body illustrates the opening and closing trades.
the asset closed higher than it opened, the body is hollow or unfilled, with the opening price at the bottom of the body and the closing price at the top. If the asset closed lower than it opened, the body is solid or filled, with the opening price at the top and the closing price at the bottom. Thus, the color of the candle represents the price movement relative to the prior period's close and the "fill" (solid or hollow) of the candle represents the price direction of the period in isolation (solid for a higher open and lower close; hollow for a lower open and a higher close). A black (or red) candle represents a price action with a lower closing price than the prior candle's close. A white (or green) candle represents a higher closing price than the prior candle's close. In practice, any color can be assigned to rising or falling price candles. A candlestick need not have either a body or a wick. Generally, the longer the body of the candle, the more intense the trading. A hollow body signifies that the stock closed higher than its opening value. A filled body signifies the opposite.
In trading, the trend of the candlestick chart is critical and often shown with colors.
A candlestick pattern is a special occurrence of one or more candlesticks on a candlestick chart, which have predictive nature in technical analysis.
Rather than using the open, high, low, and close values for a given time interval, candlesticks can also be constructed using the open, high, low, and close of a specified volume range (for example, 1,000; 100,000; 1 million shares per candlestick). In modern charting software, volume can be incorporated into candlestick charts by increasing or decreasing candlesticks width according to the relative volume for a given time period.
TRUMP, BREXIT, CAPITALISM and ANCIENT ROME.Trump, Brexit, Capitalism and Ancient Rome. We’ve been there before.
It is In the light of the Trump's impeachment looming and the Brexit can being kicked further down the road that I wanted to reflect on the reasons behind the two massive 2016 events and the parallels I am seeing with Ancient Rome. The idea behind this article is that although history does not repeat itself, it does run in certain patterns.
The modern West the way we know it today, with the labor laws, human rights and liberal democratic capitalism formed as a system after WW1, or, rather after the 1917 October Revolution in Russia, which scared the rest of Europe into action. It is usually noted that the changes that were brought up were made for the working class, which is true, but in part only.
The key target of the reforms was the emerging middle class as a designed counterweight to the young Soviet proletariat project. The reason for it is that any system needs people who are interested in it for it to survive. It was the middle-class shop owner, rentier, skilled laborers, who needed the democracy, rights, the Republic, and relatively free markets too.
The case was further emphasized after WW2 when the Soviets became a symbol of a completely different alternative system, that posed mortal threat to the West and Capitalism.
With the collapse of the USSR, however, we've reached «the end of history». Capitalism, liberal democracy and all that accompanies these ideas has won. There was one global system only.
And as was the case with Ancient Rome, as soon as they defeated Carthage, the long-standing mortal enemy, a rival City that could bring to an end the entire Roman civilization, Rome immediately turned onto itself. Just as the immune system attacks its own body in the absence of external malicious substances.
Rome turned onto itself, slowly, already the strongest unrivaled force in the region, but not yet a ruler of the whole Mediterranean. As Rome grew, so did the riches of the Rich, not constrained by Rome or Italy, for both enrichment and sources of power anymore, no longer waking up at night to the nightmare of the Hannibal's hoards streaming down the slopes of the Alps.
After the last King left Rome for good, The Veii, The Samnites, The Latins and then the Great Carthage were all strong enough to put Rome to an end. So the social cohesion was strong, as any Roman identified itself with Rome in the first place, his class interest coming second.
However, after the True mortal threat was gone, the metamorphosis in the elite-people relations spilled out in the open with the Social war of the Italian cities, fighting for the same rights as the Roman citizens. The demands, that were reasonable at the very least, as the Italian cities were populated by the Romans in all but name, supplied soldiers to the armies of Rome, yet were getting increasingly smaller parts of the spoils. These demands were rejected by the Senate, fearing an influx of the Novus homo(new people) to the political scene, possibly targeting their rights as nobles, challenging their seats in the Senate.
Then, with the Gracchi Brothers, disturbing Rome for at least a generation in their fight against the oligarchs. Followed by Marius and Sulla years of Struggle, ending with the Death of the Republic at the hands of Caesar and Augustus.
The state of the Republic before its collapse was remarkably similar to the one of the modern West, but nowhere so striking as in the USA and the UK, the two empires, that styled themselves after Rome in one way or the other.
In the days of Caesar, All the land in Italy and outside of it was concentrated in the hands of the few wealthy families, the fields were worked by the hundreds of thousands of the slave hands. The deposed farmers and laborers all flocked to the cities, filing brothels, gangs, and armies of beggars, which ultimately lead to the grain dole being the cornerstone of the late republican and then imperial policy.
Julius Caesar, an impoverished noble, came to prominence opposing his class, pushing for the land reforms, which ultimately resulted in the Senate eager to prosecute him, which as we all know led to the legendary crossing of the Rubicon and the consequent death of the 500-year-old republic.
As I mentioned above, Any system lives only as long as there are enough people interested in its existence. Republics and democracies require an extensive middle class of small property owners(small farmers in the case of Rome) and secondly, large swaths of wealth to be distributed evenly among the elite.
If 50% of all the land belongs to a 1000 nobles, they need a Senate to settle the disputes among themselves and also, they, though reluctantly, need the consent of the other 50% of the owners.
That is the recipe for Democracy and the Republic.
By the time of Caesar, 80% of all the land was in the hands of just a few families, the remaining 10% in other impoverished noble's hands and the remaining 10% belonged to the remaining middle-class farmers.
Neither the 80% nobles nor the poor, the proletariat, ex-middle class, outcompeted by the free slave labor and colonial goods, needed the Republic. It did not serve them anymore.There were not enough people who were interested in its existence. And the Republic fell.
It weathered the Veii, the Gauls, the Samnites, and the Latins, it weathered Carthage, the Macedonian and the Syrian wars. It fell after there was no enemy left to fight.It fought and consumed itself.
I am not here to say that the election of Trump and Brexit vote are in any way comparable to the fall of the Roman Republic. We are not there yet.
However, I can not help but notice the striking similarities between the Late Republic and the modern-day West.
The West fell in love with neoliberalism in the mid-80s. We opened up markets, we deregulated. Which is good. Free markets and capitalism are the ultimate wealth creators.
But we also opened up the borders for migrants. We had electricity prices 3-4 times the ones of China. We had environmental and other regulations kill businesses in droves, driving the survivors out of the West. No one was ready for that.
In the UK we saw both major parties, the Tories and the Labour turning from serving the different parts of the now dying middle class to the one serving the ultra-rich and the other serving the ultra-poor.
In the US, the Dem party saw that the mass uncontrolled migration turned sanctuary cities, red and purple states- blue and the Republicans were hypnotized by the neoliberal mantra, also being busy bombing godforsaken deserts thousands of miles away from the US.
Small farmers died out and were bought up by large estates, migrants turned sleepy peaceful cities across America into the War Zones.
The middle class, slowly dying under the simultaneous assault of the sudden globalization and migrants driving down wages, destroying communities, was constantly bombarded with allegations of racism, fascism, white privilege, homophobia, islamophobia, and many other phobias , by the smirking intellectual coastal financial, media and political elites of the Bay Area, Manhattan and the DC In the US and Southern England/London mansion dwelling Westminster M25 bound elite in the UK.
The elite, that felt that they were smart enough to make the decisions, the brunt of which they were never to bear.They had good jobs, unavailable for migrants, they had private schools, free of the latter, and they did not need any border walls, for their estates were behind the walls anyhow. Migrants mowed their lawns, served their coffee and took out the trash.
They got emboldened by the fall of the Soviet Union in the same way the elites of Rome got emboldened by the defeat of Carthage.
The middle class that was to be a counterweight to the Soviet system was no longer needed, so they were to tax it out of the existence. Tax and regulate the businesses that supported the middle class out of the existence too, substituting them with cheap migrants and overseas labor to take away any bargaining power they had left.
The vote for Trump and Brexit was a massive middle finger to Washington, Hollywood, New-York, Westminster and Brussels. The people of the Leave and Trump didn’t care about the consequences, even if there were to be any. They just told the arrogant elites to “go and love themselves”.
The Trump/Brexit voters were the same people who supported the Gracchi Brothers and cheered Marius And the Popularies.
Now, we are still quite far away from the Caesar/Augustus moment in the West, but we are already close to the Gracchi Brothers moment. However, contrary to the popular mythology, the Era of Emperors in Rome, despite the good optics and splendor and the aura of glory did not benefit anyone, neither the common men nor the elites. So instead of the hysteria about Trump and Brexit that we were all unfortunate enough to be involuntary witnesses to, conclusions are to be made. Yet, with the Calls for the impeachment, Brexit revocation, the further EU federalization and yet even louder calls for the open borders, UBI, slavery reparations, More regulations, the Green new deals of all sorts and other fancy words, that are in reality a mere epitaph of the Middle Class yet be carved on it’s tombstone, if any of that to be enacted, hopes are low.
As I already mentioned, it was the lack of a potent enemy, rather than the existence of one, that killed the republic. In the light of the reaction of the elites to the events observed in this article, the hopes are low, but the salvation of the West might come in a form of a common enemy in the face of China.
If that is not to be the case, the West is bound to consume itself.Alas, unlike Rome, I can't see a shining empire coming out of the flames of the old Republic, metaphorically speaking.
The end.
PS:that is a grotesque exaggeration for a stronger dramatic effect, yet the concerns raised in this article do deserve a good discussion. Which I encourage you to produce in the comment section.
Please, do share and comment. I would appreciate your take on the issue. Let me know if you think my analogies are accurate.
Perfect bull flagETH is currently in a bull flag that is holding up very neatly. BTC is in a similar bull flag that is also holding up perfectly. We can see on the smaller time frames that ETH is really eager to break out on the upside. Everytime BTC goes up a little ETH goes up way more. The ETH bull flag has an upward trend whereas the BTC flag has a flat trend. (I don't how how to add both charts in this idea sorry, tips welcome!) We're just waiting for BTC to make a move towards the upside of the channel and then out of it, allowing ETH to shoot up too. Check out this idea to see that history is in our favor for a breakout. The BTC LONG/SHORT ratio is also very much in our favor! Let's see what the whales have in mind for us.
Will history continue to be repeated for BTCUSDUntil a smaller scale has been repeated for Bitcoin
If this is the case then you should not look for prices lower than $7200
A friendly reminder...Before you start telling your momma that "BTC will go down to 1k for sure" take a look at the previous bull market where we had almost the exact same kind of drop before shit really got real. We dropped about 42% and all the way back down to the 100 EMA (blue line). This is still nothing to worry about!!
Relax your souls guys! Nobody knows if we are in a bull market or a bear market so the easiest and safest way to make money is to simply hodl and feel sorry for those dooms day preachers.
See you at a new ATH soon.
Stay safe!
$126K Bitcoin by January 1st, 2022The last time bitcoin put out a golden cross on the monthly MACD (January 1st, 2016), there was a 14,819% return before the death cross (on June 1st, 2018). Bitcoin started at $430.89 and ended its run at $6385.71 with highs and lows between the two. The same return at our current golden cross would put us at $126,667.92 on January 1st, 2022.
This is if history were to completely repeat itself and as we all know, it doesn't work like that. Let me know what your price predictions for January 1st, 2022 are below! Would love to hear if you are #short or #long and the reason for your position.
Ameican Stock Market Grand Supercyle, 9 Waves from 1789 to 2200s
Unfortunately Tradingview doesn't have the complete historical chart of American stock market dating back to the 1830s or even 1790s, the age of Philadelphia "Board of Brokers". I'll try to explain briefly here:
www.chartertrust.com
1790s to 1835: 1st Wave
1835 to 1842: 2nd Wave
1842 to 1929: 3rd Wave
1929 to 1932: 4th Wave
Now is the important part:
1932 to now and the next 1-2 centuries: the GIGANTIC EXTENDED 5th Wave, which is comprised of 5 major waves, each similar in length to the previous 4 Waves. Therefore the gigantic bullish run from 18th century to 23rd century should be divided into 9 Waves, not just 5 Waves. Some people have worried that 2000 is the end of Wave 5 of Wave 5, possibly leading to unprecedented crashes which would never be regained in a couple of centuries, comparable to the Dark Ages after the collapse of Roman Empire. History proved them wrong, the only viable explanation is that this Wave 5 is super extended, and the Grand Supercycle starting in 18th century is better described as a 9 Wave structure.
Therefore:
1932 to 2000: 5th Wave
2000 to 2009: 6th Wave correction
2009 to 2070s or 2090s: 7th Wave
Late 21st century: 8th Wave correction
Late 21st century to 2100s or 2200s: Final 9th Wave, with crazy inflation to pay for the expanding American Empire's always expanding bureaucracy, like what the Roman Emperors did.
I put the Final end in the 2200s, assuming the future American Empire would have a similar lifespan to the ancient Roman Empire. If so, the American Empire would have its 3rd Century Crisis in the 2200s. Of course, with the modern society being much faster in many aspects, the future American Empire might start having big trouble earlier, possibly in the 2100s. I have to say this is not entirely fantasy, considering the rise of Donald Trump, some of his supporters being from the neoreactionary movement, and some of those neoreactionary people considering military dictatorship in the Roman fashion as a favorable alternative to Democracy. Of course they will take a long time to hold more political power, therefore I say the USA might only become a true caesarist or neoreactionary Empire in the end of 21st century, or the beginning of 22nd century, annexing Canada, Australia, the UK and some other countries.
Back to the smaller picture, DJI has finished its Wave 4 correction of the Wave I of the 7th Wave, 50000 in 2022 or 2023 is a reasonable target for Wave 5 of Wave I. I put the end of Wave I at 2022 or 2023 according to Wave theory, and also the demographic cycle of USA. With the ever diminishing American birth rate and tightening of immigration intake and unfavorable trade conditions and the Artificial Intelligence bubble, Wave II might be some huge crashes in 2023 and 2024. I will elaborate more on this in the next article.
