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HOG

Short Position in HOG This morning as I was running through my trend following screener, I found Harley Davidson. What I saw was not good. After reporting an extremely disappointing earnings seasons, HOG started its downfall yesterday. It's interesting because for the first time I'm shorting a company that emotionally I like. This is a good learning lesson. It is helping me remove emotions completely from my trading, and I like that. On the weekly chart, this weeks candlestick bar is trending lower than the 200 MA. I wouldn't be surprised to see some pullback from this selloff, however the earnings are indeed that badly, and on a macro perspective, I have a feeling many companies will fall the way of HOG in terms of earnings reports, but that is for a longer idea back on my website. I entered at 55.80 and put a stop at 56. Yes its super tight, but due to my emotions before the trade, I wanted to trim my stops and I only used 0.5% of my trading capital on this trade. Trying to learn when to pare back due to emotions before the trade. All the best, RC
NYSE:HOGShort
by BrandonBeylo
HOG- Upward channel breakdown short from $55 to $45, 55 Aug put HOG was running within an upward channel formation, which broken just recently. We think with the falling oil price it will decline further. According to Upward channel breakdown we got target or $45.33. To play this we would consider $55 Aug-17 puts * Trade Criteria * Date first found- April 20, 2017 Pattern/Why- Upward channel breakdown, Falling Oil price Entry Target Criteria- Break of $55.87 Exit Target Criteria- $45.33 Stop Loss Criteria- $60.13 Option- $55 Aug-17 Puts Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
NYSE:HOGShort
by AcornWealthCorp
HOG - Upward channel breakdown trade from $53.33 to $40 area. HOG was our presidential pick. It declined nicely from our entry of $62.13 and now in profit taking zone. Now we are looking for a second opportunity here if it break below the upward channel. And we think it can go all the way down to $40 area. To play this we would consider $55 May-17 puts, currently trading for $2.90/3.10 * Trade Criteria * Date first found- February 2, 2017 Pattern/Why- Upward channel breakdown Entry Target Criteria- Break of $53.33 Exit Target Criteria- $40 Stop Loss Criteria- N/A Option: $55 May-17 Puts @ $3.10 (Note: Trade update is delayed here.)
NYSE:HOGShort
by AcornWealthCorp
TRADE IDEA: HOG SEPT 16TH 42.5/57.5 SHORT STRANGLEAin't much decent premium out there ... . HOG announces in 2 days, but I'm really just doing this as a longer-term premium selling play (hence, the Sept expiry), since there isn't jack diddly in the market of late. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 72% Max Profit: 1.38/contract ($138) Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/$501 Break Evens: 41.12/58.88 Notes: Filled for a 1.38 almost immediately. You can naturally go in closer in time (Aug expiry) to take advantage of the vol crush post earnings, but you'll have to tweak the short option strikes to get them in toward the 85% probability out-of-the-money strikes for the Aug 19th expiry. It's tough to get them right at 85% or thereabouts, which is another reason why I went out farther in time ... .
NYSE:HOG
by NaughtyPines
PREMIUM SELLING CANDIDATES FOR TUESDAY -- CY, HOG, POTWith broader market volatility bleeding out of the markets, I'm on the hunt for non-index premium-selling plays, and there are a few that have popped up on my radar. That being said, earnings season is nigh, so it might be best to be particularly selective as to individual underlying plays, keeping powder dry for the actual earnings, rather than pulling the trigger here such that you have to guide the setup around the actual earnings announcement. In any event, here are a few to look at: Individual Underlyings CY: implied volatility rank 100, implied volatility 78. The unfortunate thing about Cypress Semiconductor from a premium selling standpoint is its price, which limits the profitability of iron condor/short strangle setups. Where this is the case, the go-to is a short straddle. Preliminarily (looking at off hours quotes here), an August 19th 10 short straddle will bring in $228 in credit with break evens at 7.72 and 12.28, which would fit in nicely with CY price action. However, if you're looking to take the straddle off at 25% max profit (the usual goal for straddles), you're not looking at a tremendously great play here, even though these little "grounders" add up over time ... . HOG: implied volatility rank 100, implied volatility 63. Preliminarily, an August 19th 42.5/65 short strangle would bring in $168/contract, the drawback being that the underlying only offers monthly expirations ... . POT: implied volatility rank 70, implied volatility 51. Like CY, you won't be able to get much out of a play if you go short strangle or iron condor, leaving you with a short straddle as the go-to setup. The August 19th 17 short strangle will bring in $227/contract credit with break evens of 14.73 on the lowside, 19.27 on the topside which is not a bad fit for what POT is doing on its chart (essentially, sideways chop between 15 and 20). Exchange-Traded Funds The ETF space is not looking particularly attractive here, with the vast majority of them sub-50 in implied volatility rank. The one standout is SLV (coming in at 70), but you won't be able to get much premium out of an SLV play due to fairly low implied volatility (currently 34, which is fairly high for SLV), although it looks enticing for some kind of directional play (bearish assumption).
C
by NaughtyPines