HANG SENG Patience until December for a long term buy.Hang Seng (HSI1!) made a massive bullish break-out in September as it broke above the February 2021 Lower Highs trend-line, effectively ending its Bear Cycle. This month (October) saw it getting rejected not just on the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) but also on its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
This is a key rejection as in almost 30 years, every time the price got rejected on the 0.618 Fib, it recovered on the 3rd (1M) candle after. As a result, December will give a buy signal based on this historic price action, so have patience and take a multi-month buy then.
In most of those cases, the index rebounded to the previous High, so our Target will be 30975. Notice also that the 1M MACD is rising off a Bullish Cross. When formed below the 0.0 mark, this has also been a massive buy signal.
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Hongkong
China Stocks: What to Expect When Markets Reopen Stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong took off last week and continued their climb on Monday, posting their best single-day rally in 16 years. This surge came after several announcements from Beijing aimed at boosting the country’s economy.
But now, The Shanghai Stock Exchange will be closed from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for China’s National Day celebrations, and Hong Kong’s market will also shut on Oct. 1. However, U.S.-listed China ETFs will still be trading, so when the Chinese exchanges reopen on Oct. 7, we could see big moves as global investors get ahead of the Chinese market.
China’s stock market is known for its wild swings, mainly because retail investors make up about two-thirds of the trading. That means we might see some significant volatility once the markets open back up.
HANG SENG Strong sell opportunity on recurring fractal.Hang Seng (HSI1!) closed below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) yesterday for the first time in a month and confirmed the rejection of August 30. That was a Lower High within the established Channel Down pattern that started on the May 20 High.
This Channel Down is so far following a similar structure with the one that covered the entirety of 2023. The August 30 rejection was in fact also done on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level after a -17.30% decline.
If this sequence of events continue to follow the April 17 2023 rejection, we should be expecting the new Lower Low to be formed on the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. Our Target is exactly on that level at 15700.
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Hongkong & China Gas: Do not let up!We stick to our primary assumption that the price should make another attempt to overcome the resistance at HK$6.77 and succeed this time. Finally, as part of the magenta wave (4), we expect the price to rise into our same colored Zone (between HK$8.44 and HK$9.19). Investors could open short positions within this range, with stops placed about 1% above the upper edge. The last leg of the beige wave II should then trigger larger sell-offs. However, we consider it 44% likely that the price is already on the home stretch of this correction. This scenario will be triggered by a fall below our grayed-out Zone. It calls for a fall into the southern Zone between HK$4.73 and HK$3.58 in turquoise.
HANG SENG Sell Signal on the 1D MA200.Hang Seng (HSI1!) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern and since the start of this week, it's sideways around the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) remains intact, we continue to be bearish within this pattern, targeting 16000 next (Support 1), expecting this to be the start of the new Bearish Leg.
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HANG SENG Strong buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.Hang Seng (HSI1!) has been consolidating on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 4 straight days. Technically it is an attempt to form a bottom, which includes also the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the April 19 Higher Low.
The last time a trend both the 1D MA50 and 0.5 Fib was on December 28 2023 and 2 days later. As you can see that was a downtrend of 2 phases and after the 0.5 Fib/ 1D MA50 test, the price got rejected, starting the 2nd phase that extended up until the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, where the market bottomed.
As a result, it is highly likely to see a symmetrical mirror pattern. This time the 1.5 Fib ext is at 21600 and that is our medium-term Target.
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Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 48 - HKDTWD - (18th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing HKDTWD, starting from the 3-Month chart.
If you want to learn more, check out my profile.
HANG SENG This pull-back is the final buy opportunity.Hang Seng (HSI1!) has started a technical pull-back after getting rejected at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone. The minimum correction within this 4-month pattern has been -5.29%, so we are looking to buy after such a dip, potential 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (19700). This is the standard target on Inverse Head and Shoulders patterns.
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Unpacking Arguments Over the Bitcoin Halving
Iran’s weekend attack on Israel prompts crypto selloff: Iran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel over the weekend, heightening market fears that a wider conflict in the Middle East could break out. Crypto markets reacted initially with the price of BTC dropping from $67,800 to $61,300.
Fed chair sounds hawkish on rate cuts: Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday cast doubt on carrying out previously expected interest rate cuts later in 2024. The price of BTC dipped the following day, briefly dropping below $60K, before mounting a small rally.
Hong Kong approves first Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs: The move could help further establish Hong Kong as a key Asian hub for cryptocurrency trading. Markets are now watching closely to see if they receive more interest than Hong Kong’s previously launched BTC and ETH futures ETFs.
ETH price falls to three-year low against BTC: ETH’s value against BTC has reached a three-year low, despite recent ETH spot ETF approvals and post-Merge price increases, with high transaction fees posing ongoing challenges.
US senators move to advance stablecoin regulation: US Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand introduced a bipartisan bill on Wednesday to regulate stablecoins that would require issuers to obtain federal licenses and maintain full reserves as a way to safely integrate them into the US financial system alongside the dollar.
Solana-based DEX ‘Drift’ set to airdrop 10% of its token supply: The 100 million DRIFT token airdrop has been stirring excitement about the platform’s potential growth in the coming months.
🗣️Topic of the Week: Unpacking arguments over the Bitcoin halving
🫱 Read more here
Hang Seng Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
>> USE PAGE DN to go DOWN To the LATEST Post <<
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2-25-2024
Strong Upside Momentum with wide GREEN TrapZone established for a while and GREEN UMVD continues. Class A Entry at the top of the TrapZone.
Meituan: Turning Point ⤴️Meituan's price is still trading at the lower end of the magenta Target Zone between HK$96.90 and HK$64. Our primary assumption remains that the stock is already working on the wave 1 rises in turquoise - and that it should soon leave the resistance at HK$103.50 well behind it. However, we must continue to weight the option with a 35% probability that the stock will still undercut our Target Zone in order to complete the correction only below the low of wave alt. (2) in green.
HONG KONG joins the bull marketThe HANG SENG INDEX is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong.
The index has underperformed the rest of the world since March 2020 and was among the worst performing indices globally from 2020-2022.
In October 2022 however the Index seems to have moved up in a 5 wave structure after having seen quite a freefall from Feb. 2021. This 5 wave advance completed in Jan 2023, and since then, till the very recent low of Oct.2023 the Index corrected 61.8% of the entire Wave 1 rise.
Now however, the Index is ready give a massive 40-45% up move as the Wave 3 unfolds itself going forward into 2024-2025.
Note*- This post is for educational purpose only
Ripple's Resilience and Ambition: An In-Depth Look at XRP's caseOver the past few weeks, Ripple, the company behind the native token XRP, has been making waves in the cryptocurrency landscape. The convergence of several key developments has provided a bullish momentum for the company, strengthening its position and offerings in the digital asset arena. This article aims to dissect these significant developments and their potential ramifications.
1. Ripple Acquires Metaco: Expanding its Digital Asset Custody Capabilities
In a strategic move that underscores its commitment to growth and innovation in the digital asset space, Ripple acquired Swiss custody startup, Metaco for $250 million. Renowned for its secure digital asset management expertise across various applications, including blockchain technology, Metaco's incorporation into Ripple's operations promises to enrich its product offerings. This acquisition positions Ripple as an even more attractive option to financial institutions and individual users seeking comprehensive solutions for digital asset management.
2. Ripple Acquires Minority Stake in Bitstamp
Ripple has recently acquired a minority stake in Bitstamp, one of the oldest cryptocurrency exchanges, previously owned by Pantera Capital. The specifics of the transaction remain undisclosed, but the move reflects Ripple's intent to expand its global presence and diversify beyond payments. This strategic investment strengthens Ripple's long-standing relationship with Bitstamp, which has served as a gateway for Ripple's XRP token.
3. Ripple Unveils Its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Platform
As countries worldwide show heightened interest in developing their digital currencies, Ripple has launched a dedicated platform for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). This innovative platform, built on a new private ledger that harnesses the power of the XRP Ledger, offers an end-to-end solution to central banks, governments, and financial institutions seeking to issue and manage their digital currencies. Ripple's CBDC Platform brings several advantages: ledger technology, issuer, operator, and end-user wallets are all part of the package. This comprehensive solution simplifies issuing and managing digital currencies, positioning Ripple as a critical partner for institutions venturing into CBDCs.
4. Ripple Unveils Its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Platformament to Ripple's Technological Prowess
Ripple's commitment to the CBDC space has been further reinforced with its inclusion in the Hong Kong e-HKD Pilot Program. As the only representative from the crypto sector, Ripple will leverage its extensive knowledge and experience in the settlement of tokenized assets. This involvement validates Ripple's technological capabilities and provides a real-world testing ground for its CBDC platform, potentially paving the way for future partnerships with central banks and governments.
5. SEC Court Rulings Favor Ripple: A Potential Game Changer
Recent court rulings have increasingly favored Ripple in the ongoing legal dispute between Ripple and the SEC, possibly setting a precedent for future cryptocurrency regulations. Central to the case is the Hinman letter, named after former SEC official William Hinman, who suggested in a 2018 speech that Ethereum should not be classified as a security. Ripple has sought public access to related internal SEC documents, believing they could support their defense that XRP, like Ethereum, isn't a security. On May 16, 2023, the court ordered these documents to be unsealed by June 13, 2023. Ripple's legal commitment, demonstrated by its projected $200 million in legal expenditures and recent victories and contradictions in SEC statements, may bolster its case that XRP is a digital currency, not a security. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the case's outcome, a win for Ripple could have far-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency industry. It could help solidify XRP's legal status in the US market.
Summary and price action
Ripple has proven its resilience and ambition through strategic initiatives, court victories, and partnerships. These developments, from acquiring Metaco and launching a CBDC platform to winning key court rulings and participating in Hong Kong's e-HKD Pilot Program, illustrate Ripple's potential to shape the future of digital currencies. The recent acquisition of a stake in Bitstamp further highlights Ripple's commitment to expanding its influence in the global cryptocurrency space. With these recent developments, Ripple strategically positions itself at the forefront of the rapidly evolving digital asset industry.
XRP has outperformed the entire market since the November 2021 peak, as it was one of the few tokens/coins that hadn't pumped much compared to the rest. In November 2020, XRP got hit by the SEC lawsuit and was delisted by all US exchanges, while most other coins remained on these platforms. Now Ripple is close to potentially even winning its case against the SEC, with some essential information coming out today, while the rest of the market is just starting to deal with the SEC. As seen by XRPUSD and XRPBTC, it looks like the chart is a massive accumulation base that is ready to explode higher. It seems like the market knows something and is anticipating a positive outcome from the court case. The SEC may lose many of its issues (against Ripple, Grayscale, and Coinbase), and these could boost the market massively. So even if Ripple loses this case, more fights could turn things around for XRP and the entire crypto market. Again, as XRP doesn't have to deal with delistings and is ahead of the curve, it is less risky than other coins/tokens, which might have a different fate.
HK50 - Range Bounded mess continuesHK50 is one of those nightmare indices that you can just hold and hope (long or short).
They are money eaters when you pay interest on the daily. ANd right now it needs a serious break up or down.
I am going to remain neutral in terms of position and the bias remains down as there are lower lows and lower highs.
The comeback of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis in near futureAsia will be shaken to the core once again, but that's good news for China, first, for CCP it is an opportunity to step in and replace dollar with yuan, making countries in Asian region to submit to the Yuan power, de-dollarization of Asia. The first crisis was triggered by the handover of HongKong to China, this time it will be takeover of Taiwan by China.
Fractals on USDTHB charts strongly suggests everything that is said above.
Hong Kong50 Hang Seng Short Bears Remain in Controlbearish start to the week, with hawkish central banks and growth fears continue weighing on investor sentiment ahead of a busy week.
The theme remained the same, with investor jitters over the economic outlook weighing on investor sentiment.
There were no economic indicators from the region to change the mood.
Market Overview
It was a bearish morning session for the Asian markets. The ASX 200 led the way down, with the Hang Seng and the Nikkei also struggling.
The Asian equity markets tracked the US equity markets into the red, with fears of central banks sending the global economy into a recession weighing. Hawkish Fed Chair Powell testimony continued to resonate this morning. Last week’s Bank of England 50-basis point interest rate hike was a reminder of central bank commitments to tame inflation.
Despite softer US private sector PMI numbers on Friday, the markets are still betting on a Fed 25-basis point interest rate hike in July. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point July Fed rate hike stood at 71.9% versus 74.4% one week ago.
Significantly, the chances of the Fed lifting rates to 5.75% in September stood at 11.5%, up from 8.9% one week earlier.
Bank stocks also had a mixed morning. HSBC Holdings PLC and The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (HK:1398) saw losses of 0.33% and 0.24%, respectively, while China Construction Bank (HK: 0939) rose by 0.40%.
Strategy Bearish Short
RSI confirming permanent trend continuation
Bulltraps can be used to sell more and stronger
Trendlines shold be used in 2 ways:
bearish breakout of the trendlines should be sed to new bearish enries or position sizing only.
Bullish breakouts should be used as profit taking or trading the 2nd wave only.
Bullish breakouts are often traps.
Selling HK50 at previous resistance.HS50 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 19213 (stop at 19373)
We look to trade the current range.
Trading has been mixed and volatile.
Bespoke resistance is located at 19200.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
The primary trend remains bearish.
Our profit targets will be 18813 and 18733
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Resistance: 19000 / 19200 / 19350
Support: 18800 / 18700 / 18600