Tencent major 4.5% drop sending a break in structure Tencent break in uptrend structure - Bearish
Tencent has eventually broken below the Uptrend structure after fantastic upside.
This means, the price is now in free fall and is more likely to touch the previous support (brim level of the last Cup and Handle ).
21<7 price>200 - Reversal
RSI <50 - Bearish
Target 312
I just did an analysis on Naspers which we spoke about how Tencent has the correlation.
As Naspers correlates with Tencent and Prosus... We saw a sluggish market in Asia session with the banking holiday effect in America.
Hong Kong stocks slump as Chinese tech giants step up rivalries, HSBC in focus as market await corporate earnings boost. The Hang Seng Index declined 1.7 per cent to 20,529.49 at the close of Tuesday trading, the biggest drop in over a week. The Tech Index tumbled 3.6 per cent while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.5 per cent. The benchmark index has lost nearly 5 per cent in the past two weeks as hedge funds withdrew from the market. With Tencent dropping 4.5% this is why we saw a large breakaway gap with Naspers.
Caution is needed with such volatility .
Hongkong
Hong Kong Stock Index (It can get pretty Bullish)Hong Kong Stock Index (13 Feb 2023)
China economy is back in the full steam and it shall bring HK index upward too.
We may be in the minor pull back for the past 2 weeks but I expect the bull force will come back in soon.
20,700 shall be a good strong support region and it shall go back UP higher.
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Positive Closing: Executed trade generated profitXiaomi stock Recently has started a bull trend that brings the stock price, to rise from its minimum of 8.42 to 18.10 bringing a rise of 59.49%. I got my signal and entered just in time to take some profit. Now the price overpass my level of attention between 12.30 and 12.74.
the last bull impulse brings the moving average of 50 periods close to the moving average of 200 periods, and probably we will see a possible golden cross, let's see it In the coming weeks. My new next level is above 14.22.
Probably the reopening of China and the end of the political covid-zero is given a boost to the economy and so the possible start of a bull run, we need to be careful and be aware of any possible change of direction, so having a portfolio diversified, and doing diligence in our work, will help us to protect our portfolio. This trade you can see it on my profile in eToro.
hong kong longterm view and long setup hong kong long
😊
Im looking at hong kong 33 and I can see new wave coming for up
There is two look:
The first:
We are in the end of the correction wave (b) and we are going to start the fast (c) wave to make new top
The first part of it going to be the orange (a) and it will be an impulse wave and the target 50% of the (b)
The second:
We are in higher degree B wave and we could have correction then continue the down move to second area (the yellow box ) then will start out impulse wave (historical start)
So in both look we are looking to up move 😊
I put my setup in the chart
Good luck!
Please let me know what you think
HK50 | Sell the reopening hopesHK50 has retraced almost 20% after advice from Gov. on reopenings and easing of China's strict COVID policies to hit the 200-day MA, sloping down in a parallel channel since.
Current market sentiment has declined on re-escalation of COVID related deaths and infections, however the market has yet to correct inline with this, so any continued deterioration will lead a significant move lower.
Furthermore, China's growth prospects (GDP) for 2022/2023 have been slashed by the World Bank, with others yet to decide.
Key resistance sits at 19638 (200D MA), with local resistance of 20096 and local support of 18339. 0.618 retracement sits at 17982, 50% at 17334. I expect a rise to re-challange the 200D MA and reject from 19500.
Hang Seng Cup and Handle upside to comeCup and Handle has formed on Daily with Hang Seng.
The breakout was strong, and if we weren't in, we'd wait for a bit of a pull back for a consecutive entry level.
7>21 < 200 Moving Average which gives it a Bullish bias.
With the Covid restrictions lifting slowly and things finally showing a recovery to come for the economy, this could be the helpful catalyst for upside for the index.
Trend of MSCI Hong Kong Index ETFUnlike the more widely referenced HSI Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong which is dominated by Chinese stocks listing on Hong Kong market, MSCI Hong Kong Index only have ~6% stocks controlled by Mainland Chinese entities and another ~6% stocks that are significantly and directly exposed to behavior of Chinese consumers (For example companies which main business are casino in Macau and such). Hence it is more capable of reflecting the economy of Hong Kong.
However, EWH being an ETF that track the MSCI Hong Kong Index, does not appears to benefit from this distinction.
Buying HK50 at key support.HS50 - 21h expiry - We look to Buy at 16461 (stop at 16249)
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 16400 level.
Our profit targets will be 16969 and 17169
Resistance: 18540 / 20635 / 22510
Support: 16450 / 14580 / 14000
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
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HangSeng waiting to “boom” = Bright future HongKong. 6/Nov/22Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index have backed to “square one”?.. As its price slightly below its 25 years level ( 2020 - 1997 ).. BUT chart tell me different stories as I trade what I see “first” then what I think “second”.. where my “thinking” possible have bias and prejudice. You probably see lot of “doom” comments from western media or “westerner educated” Chinese’s “expert “ themselves...
Hang Seng Index - When will it bounce?Over the weekend, a lot of synchrony and less optimistic outlook was posted.
So, here we take the opposing view and look for when the Hang Seng Index might bounce off what it finds as a bottom.
From the weekly chart, it is very clear that the HSI has had two consecutive hard years, since 2021. An early January rally fizzled out and downdrafts take over for the rest of the year. This end of 2022 however, appears to hold a rather oversold HSI, and with the TD Sequential almost ending, it might be worth to look at possible TD Flips and then a good effort to bounce.
While the TD Sequential buy Setup is almost complete, the index is now also far out of the 3.5 SD on the Bollinger Bands. Like an overstretched rubber band, this appears deeply oversold. MACD is not yet letting up so there is some downside to dowside consolidation to occur before a bounce can be mounted. Upon re-entry within the 3.5SD band, that is where a TD Flip and a bounce might occur.
This is projected to be about 15,500-16,000; about another 1000 points from where it is today.
Any close below the red support line means that the bull case rebound is further extended, and may need a relook. Otherwise, a spike down and then a consolidation might happen, with a break above the resistance line (green) to indicate an about turn from bear trend to bull trend. This event should take place about mid-November up to Decemnber. By then, there should be enough follow through...
Watch for these first:
1. TD Seq Setup completion and perfected, with a following TD Flip;
2. A re-entry into <3.5 SD of the BB band;
3. a set of higher lows and once broken the resistance line; and
4. MACD crossover on the Signal line, and then above zero.
Wait for it...
PS. Note the green ellipses that go back to 2016. These are times of downtrend that see a reversal from the bottom.
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index at 30-year supportThe Hang Seng absolutely melt down on Monday, most people explained the selloff as the disappointment in Xi and his royalists taking complete control of the CCP, or the market is disappointed because there is no lifting of COVID restrictions after the 20th party congress....IMO, both of these are or should be well expected, the people's daily actually published the importance of COVID zero for like 3 days in a row ahead of the 20th party congress....anyway
If we zoom out, we can see the HSI is at a historical upward trend line support, and below it at the moment (this is a monthly chart). Valuation does not make sense, because the Index is trading at 0.6 PB, and each time the index traded below 1 in history, it resulted in significant return over the next 2 years (and I believe the PB never went below 0.9). However, the index now has more tech companies in it and the price to book is inflated a bit?
However, given how oversold and undervalue the index is, this looks more like a final capitulation than a "start" of another round of bear market. If we just simplify things, if the index level climb back up above this 30-year trend line, there is a high chance that the bottom is in like previous bear markets circled in red (given no new black swan event happen to the world). Volume also picks up significantly today (not available on tradingview somehow), consistent with typical capitulation at market bottom where everyone loses hope and just give up and shut down their computers...
meanwhile, theres energy crisis, war, inflation and protests going on in Europe, but European equities are up as much as 2% today and US futures up 0.5-0.8% pre market, no one cares about China selling off...interesting divergence...
Hang Seng Index - Off the cliff...No good news at all as the HSI drove off the cliff...
The weekly chart shows that two weeks ago, the support was broken, and all technical indicators are bearish.
The Fibonacci projections put the downside target at 14,600. A very substantial downside burn.
Only green shoot observed is a possible bullish divergence forming...
The daily chart shows the accentuated off the cliff type of slide down. It is a little dramatic and should be looking for some consolidation around the 16500 level.
Hang Seng Index - initiating analysis coverageFor personal interests, analyses on the HSI will be initiated...
The weekly chart closed on a bearish note, at a 5 year low. Close to a suuport at 19,200, if it breaks down -250 points, there would be more downside to the last low of March 2022, at 18,235.
As with many of the analyses done this weekend, a lot of indications that the last low will be revistied.
The daily chart has a breakdown over he last week, and daily technicals are crossing under. These are indicative of more downward momentum.
Overall, bearish aura prevails for the Hang Seng Index.
HSI 25/7-29/7 weekly planHKEX:HSI1!
Failure to take out previous VAH led to sell-off down to level near the single prints created on Monday.
Week ahead, pivot would be 20868
Since the huge excess 21192-21600 has not been untested, the sentiment for upcoming week favours bears and remains sell-the-rally mode until aggressive buyers take out that excess, which I doubt. FOMC may be the catalyst.
20626-20560 would be a significant area for buyers to defend, or found a bottom.
Yellow area under 20626-20560 is definitely an area that likely to see responsive buyers jump in, which is necessary for bulls to reverse downtrend. If bulls buy this dip, they need to establish acceptance above that LVN around 20500 for continuation. If bulls fail, the previous week excess will be next support.
Indicators: www.tradingview.com
$CHINAH bearish set-up? 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
Bitcoin along with the US market should take a decent hit sometime this week due to the continuation of strength in the US dollar. Bear-Index's, the dollar, and energy appear to be where the money will be flowing during this period if this does play out. This would lead to a temporary slowdown in the growing Chinese economy and allow it to retest support.
!! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !!
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Will HSI finish strong for Q2?2 weeks ago we discussed why the HSI:HSI rebound rally would be slowed by profit takers (). The choppiness in the index we saw for the past 2 weeks was also due to the discrepancy between the China and US equity market. While the SSE Composite SSE:000001 still held above 3300 level, the US equity indexes all broke through the 2022-May low due to the increasing worries of inflation and recession risk. Hong Kong as a market sitting in between the east and the west taking different messages from each side, fluctuation is inevitable in such a situation.
Strong rebound in the US equity market last Friday
In the recent Friday session (Jun-24), the US equity markets showed a strong rebound and paired back most of the losses from the past 2 weeks and stood above the May-2022 low again. That means the breakout to the downside we saw last week is likely to be a false breakout. While the main direction of the US equity market is still downward, it could take a break at this price level (to accumulate more energy before diving further). This break also means alignment between the US and China markets, which create the necessary condition for Hong Kong HSI to continue the rally to the upside.
Xi Jinping is joining the HKSAR 25th anniversary event
Next Friday, July-1 is the 25th Anniversary of the establishment of the HKSAR (also known as reunification with China). Last week Xi Jinping has confirmed that he will physically attend the anniversary event , which marks the first time for Xi to step out of mainland China since Covid outbreak in 2020. This gesture re-emphasizes the importance of Hong Kong to China.
Reopen to revive Hong Kong Economy
Back in early June the Liaison Office of Central People’s Government (LOCPG, Beijing’s main body overseeing Hong Kong) had hosted a meeting with foreign business chambers to collect “suggestion” and “advice” on how to revive the Hong Kong business environment. All chambers had expressed that the existing quarantine measure is the biggest roadblock for local business. With the new chief executive of Hong Kong, John Lee coming onboard next month, all eyes will be on him to iron out the reopening details of Hong Kong with mainland China and the rest of the world. Personally I am optimistic about the relaxation of quarantine measures as soon as the coming Q3. Reopening of Hong Kong is actually a one-stone-two-birds move for China. First, it can serve as a welcoming gift for John Lee from China, to help him rebuild trust between the government and the people in the city. Second, reviving Hong Kong economy, especially its financial market, is one of the crucial steps for China to save its downturning economy. I believe the announcement of the reopening would be one of the major events in Q3 that send the Hong Kong HSI Index to the upside.
Technical Discussion
HSI index retested the 20 days and 50 days moving average without going through, reconfirming the support at these levels. The strength also pulled the 20 days moving average above the 50 days creating a bullish technical signal. If we follow the upside rally narrative, below are the levels the index must break through to confirm the sustainability of the trend:
22142: 09-Jun, choppy zone peak
22523: 04-Apr, rebound peak from market plummet in Mar-2022
However, one needs to be extra cautious if the index drops below the low of the choppy zone at 20697 again , as this would mean the rally narrative discussed above is still premature. Long positions in the index as well as other Hong Kong listed stocks should be trimmed partially for risk management.