Rebound is around the corner for Chinese developersLast week we discussed the scenario of Hong Kong/China equity rebound due to the political environment change in China. HSI did end up close above the May open, creating a hammer candle in the monthly chart, and stood atop the 50 days moving average. Both showed strong bullishness from the chart perspective (Last week note here: )
As a continuation of the rebound story, earlier there were some developments on the Chinese developers front, which there might be a distress revaluation opportunity for traders to make bets on .
Update on Chinese Developers
After almost 2 years since the Chinese government imposed “3 red lines” rules on developers, which later leaded to the Chinese high-yield bond collapse in 2021 (majority of Chinese high-yield are issued by the Chinese developer), on May-17 the Chinese government finally showed sign of relaxation on the crackdown, by supporting some developers to issue domestic bond to ease their cash insufficiency . This development is under the backdrop of Chinese economic slowdown, as well as poor monetary/fiscal policy transmission capability with weakened property market.
As of today, there are 5 non-state-backed developers that have confirmed on the domestic bonds issue:
Longfor (HKEX:960)
Country Garden (HKEX:2007)
Media Real Estate (HKEX:3990)
CIFI Holding (HKEX:884)
Seazen (HKEX:1030)
Note that investors of the newly issued bond also have the option to get protection by purchasing the credit risk mitigation warrant (CRMW), of which China Securities Finance Corporation (state-owned) is the underwriter of the warrant . The important message here is that, in order for the Chinese government to take a “short-put” position, they must have vetted the Chinese developer names and shortlisted the above 5 companies for the most solid fundamentals (and political correctness). Essentially, the Chinese government is doing stock picking for us .
Among this batch of developers, I would recommend Longfor (HKEX:960) and Country Garden (HKEX:2007) . In the sector-wide distressed situation, companies with more deployable cash or financing capability actually have the optionality to acquire and consolidate weaker developers to strengthen their future market share. Longfor and Country Garden are the largest and healthiest financials among the list.
Comparing Longfor (HKEX:960) and Country Garden (HKEX:2007), the former actually have demonstrated stronger confidence among investors as one can tell from the severeness of price decline for the passed year. Hence if you are a less active investor who wants to buy this idea, go for Longfor (HKEX:960); for those who have the bandwidth for active management, Country Garden (HKEX:2007) might have more room for trading around positions with leverage.
Trading Plan for Country Garden (HKEX:2007)
Albeit the fact that I am writing a long side execution plan, please note that the stock technically is still in a bear trend, which we still see selling pressure near 20 and 50 days moving average . Hence this is not a trend following, but reversal-plus-breakout play, where more time is needed for the turnaround and breakout from the downtrend resistant levels .
Right now the stock is flirting around the 20 days moving average. One might want to place some protective bet at current level (in case of sharp upside movement with overnight news), or wait for the following 2 key level for turnaround confirmation:
5.4-5.8 : 50 days moving average and May-3 spike
6.75 : Rebound peak from March market plummet
For the bearish trend to continue, the stock must go through the 2 recent troughs. According to the trader’s conviction to the rebound stock, one might choose to scale in (i.e. average down the position cost) or scale out (i.e. partial cut loss) the position at these levels:
4.1 : May-12 bottom
3.3 : Mar-16 bottom, lowest price made in march market plummet
In terms of trading vehicle selection, apart from holding the stock outright, good news is that Country Garden (HKEX:2007) also has stock options available for trade. By using call option one can be immune from sharp drawdown in case of overnight bearish news, also better cash management for the natural leveraged nature of options. Note that Hong Kong listed stock options are less liquid compared to those in the US, I would recommend to choose expiration less than 3-4 months for narrower spread and more active quotation .
Hongkong
HANG SENG The 6 year Support is holding. Potential 25k move.Hang Seng (HSI) broke and closed today above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 2021. Despite the weakness since early April, the index hasn't yet broken or even come close to the March 16 low, indicating that we have a long-term Support. That is reasonable technically as that level (18250) is a 6 year Support formed by the February 12 2016 low and as long as it holds, pull-backs should keep finding buyers.
The natural target next is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and towards the end of the year, the 0.618 Fib (around 25000), which would be a symmetrical move with the 2016 bullish break-out from the long-term correction.
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VITASOY (345) Major BULLISH signal !VITASOY offers a good buying opportunity for day traders but also for LT investers...
The price after accumulation forms an upward impulse.
Disclaimer: All content has only educational and informational purposes, and never should be used or take it as financial advice.
HSI Trend Analysis for one day only 23 Mar 2022==========================
====== DISCLAIMER ==========
=============================
This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE
This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour
And we do not be responsible for your own loss
Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you.
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Analysis Start ( GOOGLE TRANSLATE)
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Greetings, now i would like to share some of my opinion of HSI trending.
Today the trend gap up open again, and surpass the resistance area of 21875. The future change date will be at 29 March 2022.
We predict that the trend might probably go down and touch 21875 again today or tomorrow (24 Mar 2022). If the trend does not break through 21875 and go below, then the support will be strong enough to support the futher rebounce in future.
Our suggestion is, may start to reduce the stock when meets the new high in this few days, and observe the trend whether will go below 21875 or further low 21495 and 20795. This few day the trade volume reduced half of the volume if compare to the time HSI rebounced at 16 Mar to 18 Mar. Most of the investors guess the trend might go down whenever, But there will be 30% of exception that the trend might go in a different way that out of the investors expectation.
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At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment .
Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
HSI Trend Prediction of 21 Mar 2022 (One day only)==========================
====== DISCLAIMER ==========
=============================
This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE
This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour
And we do not be responsible for your own loss
Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you.
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Analysis Start ( GOOGLE TRANSLATE)
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Greetings, now i would like to share some of my opinion of HSI trending.
Last week, we have met the most horrible way to wash out investors chips in HSI stock market, then met the most powerful rebounce in two day. Therefore, most of the people will think about that, DOES THE REBOUNCE WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK?
We will analysis this question by predicting ONE DAY ONLY trend at 21 Mar 2022.
Since the NIGHT FUTURES closed at 22110, then it means that next Monday will be a gap up open trend. Then we should mark out TWO PRESSURES and TWO SUPPORT area in the chart.
Our prediction as below :
1. IF THE TREND CAN REBOUNCE WHEN IT TOUCHED THE FIRST SUPPORTIVE LINE ONCE AND NEVER TOUCH IT AGAIN, THEN THE REBOUNCE MIGHT BE CONTINUE FOR A SHORT PERIOD.
2. iF THE TREND BREAK THROUGH FIRST SUPPORTIVE LINE AND REBOUNCE WHEN IT TOUCHED SECOND SUPPORTIVE LINE, THEN THE REBOUNCE MIGHT GO WEAK AND PROBABLY END THE REBOUNCE TREND AT TUESDAY
3. IF THE TREND FLIP DOWN WHEN IT TOUCH THE FIRST PRESSURE LINE AND CANT BREAK THROUGH AGAIN OR CANT GO HIGH AGAIN AFTER BREAK THROUGH, THEN THE TREND WILL BE END ON MONDAY
4. IF THE TREND FLIP DOWN AFTER IT BREAK THROUGH FIRST PRESSURE LINE AND FLIP DOWN WHEN IT TOUCHED SECOND PRESSURE, THEN THE KEY POINT WILL BE THE TREND CAN MAINTAIN ABOVE THE FIRST PRESSURE LINE OR NOT? IF CAN, THEN MIGHT HAS ONE MORE DAY UP TREND AGAIN. IF NOT, THEN THEN TREND WILL END.
5. IF THE TREND REBOUNCE AND FLIP DOWN BETWEEN FIRST SUPPORTIVE AND FIRST PRESSURE AREA AND CANT HAS A EFFECTIVENESS BREAK THROUGH IN ONEDAY, DEPEND ON THE TRADE VOLUME, IT MIGHT BE DEALER TRY TO WASH OUT THE UNSTABLE CHIPS, AND SEARCH A GOOD CHANCE TO CREATE NEW HIGH AGAIN.
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At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment .
Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
Bitcoin holds above $40k after Fed hikeBitcoin (BTC) held above the $40,000 level on Thursday amid a broader uptick in global equities as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked rates by 0.25% as expected.
Fed chair Jerome Powell signaled the U.S. economy was “very strong” and could handle monetary tightening, causing a jump in equities. Meanwhile, the Bank of England will also holds its policy meeting on Thursday and is expected to raise interest rates to their pre-Covid levels.
U.S. futures shed 0.51% in European hours while brent crude jumped 4% to near $100. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.22%, while Asian markets added a second day of gains with Hong Kong’s Hang Sang index rising 7% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 increasing 3.46%.
HSI trend Prediction for 21 FEB 2022 to 25 FEB 2022==========================
====== DISCLAIMER ==========
=============================
This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE
This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour
And we do not be responsible for your own loss
Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you.
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Analysis Start ( GOOGLE TRANSLATE)
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Greetings, and now we will share some idea of HSI trending for next week with everyone.
Because of the possible war between Ukraine and Russia, influenced entire stock market in the world. Also, the infected amount of Covid-19 increased too, two reason caused the panic emotion of investors. In Hong Kong, CHINA government policy influence the food industry service charge and cause MEITUAN share price gap down closed at last Friday.
So, how the trend will go at next Monday 21 FEB 2022?
Since Nasdaq Index of USA close with Black candle last Friday, and next week will be the HSI futures Stock settlement week, the HSI night Futures closed at 24140 last Friday. IF the trend cant stand back above 24323, a short-term down trend is inevitable. BUT, 22 FEB 2022 will be the change date of HSI trend, if the trend will stop go down at 22 FEB 2022, then we may expect a small rebounce of the trend.
IF THE TREND WILL REBOUNCE SUCCESSFULLY AND WONT BE INFLUENCED BY THE OUTSIDE FACTOR, WE EXPECT THERE WILL BE A SECOND UPTREND WAVE FOR HSI AT THE BEGINING OF MARCH
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At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment .
Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
HSI Trend expectation for 10 JANUARY to 14 JANUARY, A Chance??==========================
====== DISCLAIMER ==========
=============================
This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE
This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour
And we do not be responsible for your own loss
Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you.
=========================
Analysis Start ( GOOGLE TRANSLATE)
=========================
Greetings and happy new year to everyone, last week we expect the trend might go sideway retracement or break through the supportive point. As the result, HSI go through both pattern (what a lol moment). We study this situation as the The dealer cleans the floating chips in the market with a fierce pattern. Indeed, they success. But we may find the clue from the trade volume in the past week, as the trade volume shrinks to a small amount but still go down trend fiercely, this might be the hint of the dealer action.
So, how about the trend next week? Will it continue go up trend?
First i should apologize to all my follower that i doubt of my analysis and miss the best chance to advise you all a good chance to go in the market. As you may see in the chart, the trend at 06 JAN 2022 has touched the fibonaci time zone that day and then it rebounce successfully. That is almost a best time to buy on dips but i got some bad news from Hong Kong about almost every Blue chips stock go so bad that time, so i doubt about the possibility of rebounce. But, i lose to the dealer of HSI, thats why i apologise, and i will improve my ability and self-confidence of trend analysis. I hope i wont be tricked again by these dealer again because this is my first time to meet this kind of trick.
Okay, now i will start my new analysis.
After the rebounce we may found that the trend now is coming to a key position of whether it may remains the uptrend or not. The top resistance will be at 23600 but the strong support is 23300, this is very near and important for HSI now. IF only the trend can stand above the 23600, then the trend may start to challenge the 50 MA around 24110. However, since the trade volume has an explosive increase at 06 January, the support has been established, we might expect the possibility of break through 23600 is big.
BUT, Hong Kong government also declare the time limit of outdoor activity and all citizen should not go out after 6.00p.m., will this policy affected the uptrend of HSI now is UNKNOWN. The rivalry between China and the United States is also becoming more and more tense, this is also be worried by most of the investor of Hong Kong and stay on the sidelines.
Therefore, here is the advise from us, if the trend does not break through 23300 and stand above 23600 successfully, IT WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE AS THE 23600 WILL BE THE SUPPORT POINT TO PUSH UP THE TREND. However, we do not rule out the possibility of falling below 23300 in the future, if the trend go down 23300 again, Sell and wait and see.
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At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment .
Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
How HSI trend will go in the begining 2022?==========================
====== DISCLAIMER ==========
=============================
This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE
This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour
And we do not be responsible for your own loss
Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you.
=========================
Analysis Start ( GOOGLE TRANSLATE)
=========================
Since the end of the previous year refers to entering the settlement stage, the transaction volume has decreased to less than 5 billion. On the last day, HSI gapped high and opened low and closed the false positive line. However, the trading plunged on the first day of the new year. Therefore, the future trend of HSI was unclear.
In addition, US stocks will also be affected by the reduction in debt purchases in the next three months, and may enter a state of stock market correction early. Evergrande (3333) is also facing a serious debt crisis, and many real estate properties have been repossessed, which may further affect the sentiment of HSI investors in the future. Blue chip stocks have not yet seen an upward trend.
Therefore, we provide our observations.
Due to shrinking trading volume, this week's trading volume will gradually return to the daily level, and this week will also determine whether HSI can start to rise or rebound in the future. The current trend has entered an equilateral triangle trend. It either rebounds smoothly or continues to fall to bottom. According to our calculations, the true bottom of HSI is around 21,000, while HSI is currently rebounding at around 22,600. In the future, once the trend drops below 22600 again, it may fall further to before 21000.
If one day this week, a large volume rise or rebound can begin, the trend of the small bull market can basically be confirmed. Therefore, this week must enter the observation phase. It is not recommended to open a position immediately, but it may be possible to do more on dips. There is a greater possibility of entering a short-term rebound trend if it does not break through 23000.
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At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment .
Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
Xiaomi bottomed - We are heading towards new All-time highs!Hey Investor,
please see my current idea on the Xiaomi stock, where my count suggests a possible bottom for a trend reversal in order to make new highs. This is calculated based on my Elliot Waves Count by the fact, that wave C has the same length as wave a.
I have checked the inner structure of wave C in order to check the inner structure of this wave. Based on this knowledge I am very confident that we might have our bottom here.
Let me know what you think.
This is no financial advice, just my technical view.
RT
EVERGRANDE FIASCO - A New BeginningAs you probably know International investors are watching this like a hawk I can honestly see 20.21 call me crazy but you'll see.
If you can't find me on TV I'll more than likely be here - maverickpartners.wixsite.com
HKEX:3333
CAPITALCOM:3333
SP:SPX
SKILLING:SPX500
OANDA:SPX500USD
FOREXCOM:SPXUSD
TVC:SPX
The Ending of an Era - HSIOriginal Chart This is Based Off
2018 update
Original Trade Strategy Around This Chart
Everything should be self explanatory in the chart. Of course - this will work until it doesn't, but since the 1990, the HSI index hitting its upper resistance line has nailed every major global market top within a very short timeframe. You can see how perfect this has timed markets with the correlation to the SPX index in the lower chart. Hypothetically speaking, when you would hit the upper resistance line, you would short emerging markets to hedge against whatever is about to happen. Then when this hits the lower resistance line, you would go long major market indexes until you arrive back at the upper resistance line (SPX, etc).
2022 - End of an Era?
As most can see, this chart is a very very long narrowing wedge / channel. The volatility between drawdowns and rises was far greater the further back you go, and the drawdowns have all been proportionally smaller as we narrow within the channel bouncing off top and bottom resistance (and sometimes in between). With that said, narrowing channels like this indicate increasing fragility of the trend, and potentially suppressed volatility. Eventually, something has to give, and this will break the long term pattern.
I believe we're close to that point, and that's not a good sign for asian markets. I don't know exactly what would happen if this breaks to the downside, but I don't think it would be pretty. Stable systems such as this have a way of becoming extremely chaotic when the stability breaks. Chaotic markets = drawdowns / crashes, and given the current state of Chinese markets and politics, this shouldn't be too surprising that it could be possible. The ongoing Chinese real estate crisis is just getting going, and the party has so far remained committed towards deflating their real estate bubble. Fundamentally, Hong Kong is just as bad if not worse than China from a real estate speculation / valuation perspective, yet there are additional problems in HK with people fleeing the territory due to the Chinese takeover following the 2018 protests. Demographics are strongly against this market, valuations are strongly against this market, and the current economics of this look rather dire without any major positive windows into future development / growth.
From a technical perspective, this is also far weaker than every other time it's hit the bottom resistance line. Note that every other instance we hit the lower resistance line, we also were hitting the lower monthly bollinger band at the same time. Not included within the chart, but momentum indicators also are showing a lot of negative divergences. You can see this from simply looking at the chart and noting the covid recovery bounce has been far weaker than every other post-lower boundary recovery bounce. We didn't even make it up to the middle resistance line before retesting.
My guess and view is that this won't break easily, but it will break dramatically. I think there is a good chance we see another rally here back towards one of the resistance lines, but after that, momentum will have really worn off. I also think we could chop around the lower resistance for a while, but ultimately, we are likely going to break down here on a secular basis. Maybe Kyle Bass will actually be validated after being wrong for 10+ years (except he's probably already been stopped out of all his poorly timed trades)?
Hang Seng Index Trending Prediction (04 Oct to 08 OCT)Greetings, one week late for the prediction because of private reason. Financial problem make me really headache, but still i will do my update
For the news of last week, is the total settlement for the Hang Seng Future September, and the new round of Future has started for October.
Evergrande (3333) company has two USD debt are expired to settle, and China has execute Electric Supply Restriction because of not enough power supply for the winter. China government has ordered the State-owned enterprises and financial institutions to purchase the industry of evergrande and prepare for the probably bankrupcy in future. Evergrande still has ONE MONTH Debt grace period to settle the debt crisis.
This week key event will be whether the evergrande will settle the debt crisis or not. Even though lot of the expert predicted that the debt crisis of Evergrande will not influence the financial system in Hong Kong and China, the investors still worry about the event could probably cause the panic sell off or BEAR trend in future.
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Suggestion of HSI market
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Today (04/10) panic sell of is the influence of Power Supply restriction and the fear of Evergrande (3333) debt crisis, however there are resistance at 23800 and pressure at 24500. The trend for this week will Probably Lateral oscillation.
TREND IS UNKNOWN but if there are some bad news again, the trend will probably down trend at any moment
OBSERVATION is NEEDED before you start to purchase.
Since the trend still can stand above 10 EMA, and the MA is still down trend, America Stock market will probably happen a big retracement or a sudden down trend at anytime, HSI market is not optimistic.
New low point has appeared at September, but if the trend break through 23800 and cant stand back above, then it will be one more new low point.
Again, All the prediction above just assumption, and it is not an advise to purchase or sell the share, please be responsible to your own trade behaviour.
Hope all of you may earn more money and be a rich man/woman.
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Hang Seng Index Trend Prediction of 13 to 17 SeptemberGreetings, here comes the conclusion of the trend for this week. The reason of the rebounce end early is because, the trade volume of the entire Hang Seng Index Significantly weakened and there is not enough power to push the HSI up to the new high price. Also, Tencent SDN BHD, one of the biggest company of China and Hong Kong, has been summoned by the government to have a talk about the issue of the restriction gaming hours of teenager and child, and also the delayed released announcement of their big game project . Two reasons above are the main impact to cause the Hang Seng Index trend end the rebouce early and the panic of investors sold out their shares. Also, BABA(9988), XIAO-MI(1810), MEITUAN (3690) are the main influence as TENCENT, and all of them fall in price together today and influence the HSI at the same time.
After explain the reason of why the HSI end the rebouce and go down trend, now we start to analysis the future trend.
As we predicted before, the ENTIRE HSI is still in BEARISH position. In fact, there is also not enough power and volume to support the trend to go bullish as the entire Hong Kong market considered the HSI trend by now just a rebounce but not a chance to go bullish.
So, the bottom support line off 24550 will be the second test of the breakthrough resistance position. However, it might break through the resistance with BIG POSIBILITY as the trend this week has been break through the 20 and 10 EMA. ONLY IF THE TREND CAN BE RECOVER AND STAND STILL ABOVE 10 EMA, THEN MAYBE IT WILL BE A SECOND REBOUNCE OF HSI .
The other reason we say BIG POSIBILITY to break through the bottom support line is because, the WEEK AND MONTH TREND are still bearish and only the startto go down trend. Keep in mind that Overall market atmosphere is still remain sidelines and not enough confidence to support the HSI turn into uptrend.
Therefore, the suggestion is that, OBSERVE THE TREND WHETHER WILL BACK TO 24550 AGAIN OR NOT, THEN WAIT FOR IT TO REBOUCE OR BREAKTHROUGH , then you may consider it is going to be rebounce again or breakthrough down tren.
Again, All the prediction above just assumption, and it is not an advise to purchase or sell the share, please be responsible to your own trade behaviour.
Hope all of you may earn more money and be a rich man/woman.