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Hongkong

Hong Kong Stock Index (The Late Sellers are trapped now)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (16 MAY 2020) It has hit our expected TP level yesterday. If a trader rushed into HSI shorted over the bad situation gets trapped now. This is how the market works. I will be waiting for another entry, possibly short at a higher level. Possibly near 24,250 regions. Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. DISCLAIMER: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
OANDA:HK33HKD
by SonicDeejay
CADJPY on the verge of break a bullish channelI am positioning to buy CADJPY because of > Potential bullishness in Oil price which is a plus for CAD > Global improvement in containing COVID-19 which implies more economies will be opened and investors will start to dump safe haven like JPY. I am not ruling out the weak legdown due to Hongkong Riots and Minneapolis Riots which will likely worry investors and improve price of safe havens (JPY and Gold). I think they will be for a short time and will provide opportunity to buy at the bottom.
Long
by bluepipsforexsignals
Will Hong Kong abandon the peg against the USD?Will Hong Kong abandon the peg against the USD? The financial hub of Asia, which connects the East to the West has been in the middle of pissing contest between the United States and China, not to mention their domestic struggle between them and China. If protests for autonomy in Hong Kong continue, and President Trump implements drastic foreign policy measures against Hong Kong, extreme capital outflows may ensue, forcing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to abandon its peg on the U.S. dollar. Could Donald Trump’s election woes force the Peg to break? As the November Election edges nearer, President Donald Trump risks losing the presidency due to his mismanagement of the Coronavirus. David Rocke describes his reopening the American Economy as “gambling for resurrection.” A branch of game theory, which essentially states everything that the President is doing with regards to the Coronavirus is perfectly rational. He has two choices: He does nothing drastic, the death increase, therefore basically ensuring his loss in the election. Or he reopens the economy, maybe squashes the curve, and promotes that it was a success, giving him a higher chance of winning the election. If that doesn’t work, well, he was going to lose the election anyway. As the Jobless claims reached 41 Million yesterday, President Trump is losing the grip on the election. Desperation may be a giant risk for Hong Kong’s peg. However, there is one thing the President has full control over – foreign policy. With a China conference set tomorrow, there a high possibility given his election chances that he implements drastic sanctions against Hong Kong to please his supporters. This is alongside Secretary Pompeo announcing that “It could no longer verify Hong Kong’s autonomy from China,” which gave it special trade exceptions with the U.S. This may put upwards pressure against the Hong Kong Dollar, which is pegged against the USD as the financial instability from the sanctions may cause extreme capital outflows. However, this alone may not cause a capital outflow, nor may the capital outflow force the peg to break. Hong Kong may impose restrictions on capital outflows for the time being. History of the Hong Kong / U.S. Dollar Peg As the financial hub connecting the West to the East, Hong Kong teased investors with its free-flowing capital policies, with a promise of financial stability and consistency. In 1983, the currency was pegged to the USD. This was due tp Concerns regarding the future of Hong Kong after 1997, when the handover of control from the British to China was set to take place. The rate at which the Hong Kong dollar was pegged to the U.S. Dollar has changed over time, however, for the past 37 years, it has remained pegged to the U.S. currency. For the past 12 years since the Great recession, Hong Kong has flourished being the brokers between the East and the West. The pegged currency gave the country stability when it came to trade and investors. However, history shows that pegged currencies are disastrous in extreme conditions. This was the case in the Thai Bhat in 1997 and the Argentinian Peso in 2000. In the case of the Thai Bhat, Thailand was experiencing high levels of growth from 1992 onwards as banks loosened restrictions, causing a lending boom and inflated real estate prices. However, from 1995 onward, growth slowed, with investors increasingly worrying about the returns on their investments. This caused a massive capital outflow out of Thailand, devaluing the Thai Bhat. The government tried to prop up the currency by using its allocated $38B USD foreign reserves. However, in half a year from the start of 1997, their foreign reserves dropped 93% to $2.65B before they stopped the regime. The That Bhat subsequently depreciated against the USD, from 25 to 52 Thai Bhat per $1 USD, effectively abandoning the peg between the Bhat and the USD. Similarly, the Argentinian Peso shared the same fate Argentina’s government was citing the control of inflation as the reason for the currency peg. However, a multitude of socioeconomic factors such as an increase in income inequality and external shocks driving interest rates higher would see Argentina’s growing economy stall. With the Peso pegged to the USD 1:1, there was pressure for Argentina to keep the peg as most of its debt was denominated in U.S. dollars. However, restrictions on withdraws of 1000 Pesos/USD dollars pushed the sitting President, and the Minister of Economy resigned. The new finance minister imposed a new exchange rate of 1.4 to 1 U.S. dollar, however, what sealed the abandoning of the peg was when “pesification” of all the accounts in Argentina – which changed every single dollar that was in USD to Peso. This saw an increase in demand for the U.S. dollar – increasing the exchange rate from 1.4 pesos to 1 USD to around 4 Peso to 1 USD. Currently, 1 U.S. Dollar sits at 68 Argentinian Pesos. – Further reading, “Convertibility Law” What is the Catalyst for Hong Kong? It will require a multitude of events to occur at the same time. The Hong Kong protests, for the most part, have been mainly domestic, with geopolitical parties watching from the sidelines. However, with China putting its foot down and enforcing national security law, the eyes of democracy have caught attention. President Trump stated that “we are not happy with China” with Larry Kudlow stating that China has made a “huge mistake” in passing the national security regarding Hong Kong. Carrie Lam, the Chief Executive of Hong Kong, assures Hong Kong citizens that the law will not undermine the freedom Hong Kong citizens face. However, she is on the side for the law passing, stating that “regrettably, the current legal system and enforcement mechanism for Hong Kong to safeguard national security are inadequate or even ‘defenseless.’ Despite returning to the Motherland for 23 years, Hong Kong has yet to enact laws to curb acts and activities that seriously undermine national security.” Currently, Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority (HKMA) foreign reserve sits at around $441B U.S. dollar with Hong Kong using the Fed’s repo facility to its full advantage. The HKMA has the goal of pegging the currency between 7.75 – 7.85 HKD for 1 USD, and currently sits around the strong end of the band at 7.752 as the HKMA bolsters the strength of the HKD during the Coronavirus. This may be in anticipation of a devaluing in the currency because of the Coronavirus and domestic tensions. Tensions are slowly picking up, putting pressure on the peg. With the election on the horizon for Trump alongside China taking a strict stance against Hong Kong, fireworks may ensure as both sides battle it out. With Hong Kong directly in the firing line, all eyes are on what President Donald Trump imposes on Hong Kong tomorrow. The HKMA has enough foreign reserves to continue to prop up the HKD, given current circumstances. But the uncertainty with Hong Kong has finally started to settle in – not a feeling you want when your country was built on ensuring certainty and consistency within the Financial Markets. There is a chance that capital in Hong Kong talks themselves into pulling their money out of Hong Kong. If that occurs, the peg on the Hong Kong Dollar may serve the same fate as Thailand in 1997.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDHKD at Peg Support, and Hang Seng Break!I wrote a post regarding the US and China and the Thucydides trap, and if a cold war is in the works, watch for spheres of influence to be brought up and tested. The Chinese are adamant on Taiwan and Hong Kong being a part of China’s sphere of influence and the Americans should not be meddling with Chinese interests. Last year, the protests in Hong Kong were rampant and we saw thousands hit the street opposing the CCP’s 1 country, 2 systems approach as mainland China has a large say in Hong Kong’s Basic Law and foreign affairs. This heated up as a famous Hong Kong author, who published works condemning the CCP, was kidnapped and taken to the mainland, before being returned to Hong Kong with a new approach to the CCP. Go figure. Hong Kongers have been fighting against this encroachment by the CCP which threatens British and Basic Law in Hong Kong. Many have said that the only reason the CCP did not move in troops to quash the protests, was the fact that Hong Kongers would be able to upload videos on social media of the oppression. The CCP does not control the internet kill switches and has not extended their internet great wall into Hong Kong. The eyes of the world would be watching and China’s reputation on the world stage would be tarnished. These protests died off as quarantine was issued to fight against covid-19...something that many have speculated has benefitted the CCP the most. Covid got the people off the streets. With tensions between the US and China flaring up again, Hong Kong is taking centre stage. The phase 1 trade deal, which seems to have been nothing but a temporary truce, is now dead and both sides did NOT meet up as they said they were to discuss the progress. We have had President Trump say that he did not want to speak with President Xi, and yet the Premier of China spoke about how the trade deal is still one of importance for China. President Trump then wrote a letter to the World Health Organisation, threatening to cut funding if they do not change. This is very much tied to how they did not investigate and hold China accountable for preventing the spread of the virus. To add more fuel to the fire, the US senate passed a bill allowing for the delisting of Chinese companies if they fail to meet US security regulations, which they pretty much all do since they do not use GAAP standards of accounting. And then, the US and Taiwan are now set to sign a 180 million dollars arms deal, something which has ticked off the Chinese. Both nations here need to look strong, and this is where many are expecting China to react and retaliate. President Xi is under pressure to make a strong move. Many people forget that he can easily be replaced. Will Hong Kong be that show of power and strength? Enter the National Security Law. A bill is set to be signed, which would allow the mainland to send in forces into Hong Kong under the event of security issues such as protests, mutiny etc. One that could be applied if hundreds of thousands hit the streets of Hong Kong like they did before the pandemic. Carrie Lam, who is the Chief Executive of Hong Kong (chosen by the CCP), is losing her support base very very quickly. How much longer she lasts is anybody's guess, but it does not seem she will have the support of the people, especially once she signs this bill. So how do we play this? Well it was important to lay the geopolitical foundation. What China does in Hong Kong will be important because the Americans are now saying there will be repercussions if this National Security Law is signed in. SInce last year, the Hong Kong protests have been seen carrying US flags and even portraits of President Trump, pleading for the US to stand up for Hong Kong...something I am sure has really ticked off the CCP. Expect Hong Kong and its economy to remain under pressure. Let us take a look at both the USDHKD and the Hang Seng, both of which are showing great plays. In terms of the currency, Hong Kong has a currency board which maintains the Hong Kong Dollar pegged between 7.75-7.85. As you can see here on the charts, we are at the support level of 7.75 which will have to be maintained for the peg to operate. You can see here on the daily chart, the Hong Kong Dollar appreciated and has ranged since April. A breakout here seems imminent. This is almost a free money trade. Unless we get a major event, perhaps even could be seen as a black swan event. That is, the peg is broken and the Hong Kong Dollar is free floated. This would have a huge impact of course on the Hong Kong economy, but also the world of finance as Hong Kong is one of the centres for finance not only in Asia, but in the world. In fact, this is what people like Kyle Bass and Brent Johnson have been speaking about. Brent Johnson approaches this with his US Dollar milkshake theory. That there will be a run into US Dollars which will see the Dollar move much much higher. He has said in a Real Vision interview that the USDHKD is a great way to play this. Yes, a higher Dollar will wreck emerging market currencies, but a higher Dollar will force the peg to break. Kyle Bass approaches this more from a geopolitical angle. That Hong Kong, which has one of the largest real estate bubbles in the world, is now in trouble. He believes that the Hong Kong currency board may not even have enough US Dollars anymore to maintain the peg, which will force the peg to break. If they do not have enough US Dollars, and the Dollar moves higher according to Johnson’s theory, this just adds more strength to the eventuality of the peg being broken. Furthermore, Bass has spoken about the troubles of the bank HSBC. Bass is also bearish on the Hong Kong stock market, given the troubles in the economy and also the geopolitical uncertainties going forward. What I found very interesting, was the fact that the Hong Kong and China 50 equity markets moved much differently than their US, European and Japanese counterparts. The Hang Seng has broken below a very major zone. Here is the chart of the Hang Seng on the 4 hour chart, although it looks just as bearish on the daily and the weekly chart when you factor in market structure. The Hang Seng has been in a range on the 4 hour, just like many other markets that I have been following. The support zone of that range has been broken, with a nice strong candle close below. What I am looking for is now our first lower high. This can come in two ways. The first is we move back up to the broken zone and support now becomes resistance and we see sellers come in and defend the zone. Secondly, we form a lower high swing here right now. This could be occurring right now as you can see the pullback has been seeing sellers step in. For this scenario to play out, we need a lower low to confirm the swing. This would mean we need a break and close below 22730. Both of these plays could be much more longer term. The charts do look good, and the geopolitical environment is not very great for Hong Kong. It does seem Hong Kong will be a central point in this ‘cold war’ between the US and China, and how this issue is resolved will be telling on the future of US and China relations. The Chinese believe the US is meddling in Chinese domestic affairs, while the Americans are saying they are trying to uphold the rights of Hong Kong. I will definitely have my eyes on Hong Kong and I suggest you all do the same.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
Hong Kong Stock Index (The economy is in BAD Shape)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (6 MAY 2020) HK economy is in the bad shape and it has yet to reflect accordingly in the stock markets of it. We are seeing some bounce up from 23,500 regions and expect it shall be short-lived. As long as the price can't break up the resistant region of 24,250-25,000 region, HSI index will go alot lower soon. The support level shall be 23,400 and 22,800 and beyond. Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. DISCLAIMER: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
OANDA:HK33HKDShort
by SonicDeejay
2
Hong Kong Stock Index (Dead Cat Bounce)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (3 March 2020) We are in the rebound mode and it will likely take some time. HSI is in the grind support region and it can climb up slowly. 26,800 shall be reachable, soon. But I see the whole thing as a dead-cat bounce phenomenon. Whatever method you use if you do not follow the proper rule of risk management, it will have detrimental effects on your account. Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment". Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. DISCLAIMER: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
OANDA:HK33HKD
by SonicDeejay
$HSI #HongKong at two resistance lines and overboughtHSI has pushed through the 28200 barrier which is the two-year 38.2% and one year 61.8% barrier, but has now reached the confluence of two channels, both of which suggest resistance and a pullback. There is clear channel and earlier low support at 26700. It’s not a great trade, but here is a good entry point, shorting 28400 (market). I have placed the stop at 29200 to be ultrasafe, so I need a full breakdown to 25750 or lower to get a decent (>3) RR. However, you could try to build a position with just 100 pt stop and see how you go. If there is upward pressure, then it’s 29000 next stop. Note the overbought indicator on this channel has worked since September. Also there is some similarity to early 2018 price/action.
TVC:HSIShort
by adatherton
+2068% : How the Coronavirus impact this companyHello everyone. Today I will not give a technical analysis, but I just want to show you how the coronavirus can impact the market. This company, China Health Group , has recently discover that the Ritonavir has Inhibitory effect on the new coronavirus. What is Ritonavir ? Ritonavir, sold under the trade name Norvir, is an antiretroviral medication used along with other medications to treat HIV/AIDS. This combination treatment is known as highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Often a low dose is used with other protease inhibitors. It may also be used in combination with other medications for hepatitis C. Also, they are the only producer of Ritonavir in China. Ritonavir Immediately after the news was spread, this company take, in 2 days, more than 2000% . I really think that a lot of company related to the health sector, such as this one, can surge very fast. Better than a lot of shitcoin !
HKEX:8225
by GoldenNaim
1