Hang Seng (HSI) - Short IdeaI think most people know the Macro drivers for the short. Well, here are technical ones.
Good Luck Hong Kong.
Shooting Star at 61.8% Fib level.
Weekly 200 EMA
Previous resistance.
Hongkongindex
HONG KONG UNDER RESISTANCE AND LOOKS BEARISHHello Traders,
Hong Kong is going through some troubling times right now. To summarize very briefly, Hong Kong has been its own entity for some time with its own legal systems, boarders and rights but due to legal agreements China wants to take back Hong Kong as part of China. This is a crude summary of events.
This is causing friction between Hong Kong and China and there have been violent protests for several months over the current situation. Hong Kong property market is also one of the most expensive in the world.
Due to the current climate of uncertainty and looking at the chart of the Hong Kong top 50, it looks very bearish to me.
Price has dropped out of a large descending triangle, that H+S dumping price to below the major support/resistance level. Price looks like its trying to break resistance but I think with whats going on right now it wont.
Quite simply if the price breaks resistance, holds resistance and moves up then that will make my bearish stance invalid.
But because I am bearish I am looking for weakness here. Repeated failures at resistance means the price will be going lower.
Hong Kong Stock Index (Dead Cat Bounce)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (3 March 2020)
We are in the rebound mode and it will likely take some time.
HSI is in the grind support region and it can climb up slowly. 26,800 shall be reachable, soon.
But I see the whole thing as a dead-cat bounce phenomenon.
Whatever method you use if you do not follow the proper rule of risk management, it will have detrimental effects on your account.
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Short or Take Profit $HSI ahead of Hong Kong Retail Sales YoYI'm reducing risk and taking a few positions off the table on the HK Market. We have a great run in the last few weeks.
Price is at the top of the channel and I cannot see much upside from here. 29,000 at max.
On Friday, it is the Hong Kong Retail Sales YoY data, I am expecting it to be negative because of the Hong Kong Protest.
Source - Trade Economic.
Hong Kong Retail Sales YoY
The volume of retail sales in Hong Kong tumbled 26.2 percent year-on-year in October 2019, following a downwardly revised 20.3 percent slump in the previous month. It was the largest annual decrease in retail trade since at least October 2005, after almost six months of violent anti-China protests. Sales declined mostly for jewellery, watches & clocks (-46.9 percent vs -44.3 percent in September); clothing & footwear (-34.2 percent vs -22.8 percent); department stores (-31.8 percent vs -25.9 percent); other consumer goods (-28.5 percent vs -19.7 percent) and food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-17.5 percent vs -19.5 percent). Year-to-date, retail sales shrank 10 percent compared to the same period a year ago. Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong averaged 4.66 percent from 2005 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 30.60 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -26.20 percent in October of 2019.
2020-01-03 08:30 AM Retail Sales YoY Nov Forecast- -23.5%
