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Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 353)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Sawcruhteez Strategies: Comprehensive Trading Strategy - Consensio | Comprehensive Trading Process | How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods Consensio: Remains fully bullish after we failed to get a death cross on the 4h with the 50 and 200 EMAs. Patterns: Inverse head and shoulders Horizontals: Resistance zone from $10,800 - $11,000 Trendline: Bear: Bull: Lucid SAR: If looking for SAR based on Welles Wilder’s original calculations then use “Lucid SAR” on Trading View. 4h is bullish. Daily and Weekly are bearish. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% TD’ Sequential: W G6 | 3D: R5 | D price flip Ichimoku Cloud: Weekly is starting to c clamp. D bearish TK cross but support found from cloud. Relative Strength Index: Just brokethrough 50 on daily Average Directional Index: 4h and daily indicate chop (ADX < 20) Price Action: 1m: +17.71% | 2w: -2.6% | 1d: +4.05% Bollinger Bands: Price bounced from bottom daily band and is now testing MA. Stochastic Oscillator: Daily buy signal worked well. Weekly sell signal still in play. Summary: When trading crypto there is no rest for the weary. In a market this volatile it is crucial to be flexible and ready to change one’s disposition as the drop of a dime. Strong opinions loosely held. Over the past few weeks I have been expecting a deep correction back to $7,500 - $8,600. That is mainly due to the following: Weekly Lucid SAR turned bearish Wyckoff Distributions identified on 4h - 12h Within a whisker of death cross on the 4h with 50 and 200 EMA’s First weekly stochastic sell signal since Dec 2017 Extreme Contango in the futures markets strong indicator of a top. Click here to read more. Price fell below the 2w high for the first time during this run Finally, this is all following a massive move from $3,200 to $13,800 in less than 6 months The evidence of another big leg down was overwhelming. I sold the majority of my spot at $11,000 and tried shorting twice. First when price was above $11,000 and then when we fell to $10,500. Both had very tight stops that were triggered shortly after entering. Since I was betting against the long term trend I had a very small position and therefore the losses were but a flesh wound. Now that the price appears to have avoided the death cross on the 4h and is in the process of confirming an inverse head and shoulders I am starting to look for places to buy back my spot. Originally I was planning on buying a 4h close above $10,800. After more analysis I have decided to wait for additional confirmation. What I will be watching for from here: 4h & Daily close above the horizontal resistance zone outlined above. Daily close above the Bollinger Band MA 4h & Daily ADX crossing 20 As usual I like to enter large positions in pieces, no more than 30% at a time. I reentered 15% of X today. The plan from here is to start adding about 15% - 25% of X if / when we get the confirmations outlined above. Here is the most interesting charts for me right now. Bullish reversal candle on the weekly that looks like it will close above the trendline. If that was the local low then it would establish the second higher low which could be used to draw in a trendline. When that is done it starts to look very much like a new Phase 2.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Sawcruhteez
18
Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 352)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Sawcruhteez Strategies: Comprehensive Trading Strategy - Consensio | Comprehensive Trading Process | How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods Consensio: Long term is bullish. Short and medium term starting to turn bearish. If 50 and 200 EMA’s get death cross on 4h then medium term trend will be bearish for me. Patterns: Pulling up and into death cross on 4h? If so would that be considered a pattern? Horizontals: R: $10,800 | S: $10,500 Parabolic SAR: If looking for SAR based on Welles Wilder’s original calculations then use “Lucid SAR” on Trading View. Weekly bullish SAR recently brokedown which indicates medium term bear trend. Futures Curve: Contango, but spread is narrowing on this selloff which is bullish Funding Rates: Shorts pay long 0.01%. Nothing out of balance here. BTCUSDSHORTS: Shorts are at new all time low TD’ Sequential: 4h hit a green 9 on this last move Ichimoku Cloud: Weekly and daily are bullish. Look at how the daily cloud (traditional settings) acted as support. 4h is bearish. Relative Strength Index: Appears to be resisting 50 on daily. Average Directional Index: Daily has fallen below 20 which is similar to the RSI resisting 50. Weekly is just showing the first signs of reversing. Price Action: 24h: +8.51% | 2w: -3.76% | 1m: +16.67% Summary: My last update was on July 7th and that is when I predicted “four figure Bitcoin within 48 hours”. Furthermore my price target for the expected selloff was $8,975 by July 10th. Both of those predictions were wrong. I roughly got the price targets right, but the time targets were about 1 week premature. Profitable trading revolves around projecting the price and the time. If you get one of those wrong then you are wrong, simple as that. This has been a great example. I shorted above $11,000 with a $9,000 price target and I lost money eventhough the price went to $9,000 within weeks of entering my position. I had a stop set at $11,876 and that was triggered before the selloff that followed. This is a great example of why trading revolves around price and time. Get one wrong and you will lose money. About 5 days after my call the price of bitcoin reached my target of $9,000. I had a pretty good idea of where the price was going in the future but I still lost money because I thought it would happen a little sooner than it did. With all of that being said I am prepared to take my second stab at the same call. As it stands I strongly expect four figure Bitcoin within the next 48 hours. From my perspective the market is very overbought while testing a major resistance level. This tells me that resistance will hold and that another leg down is to be expected. Therefore I am viewing this as a good opportunity to sell. Whether that be short or a profit take. It looks to me like $10,800 resistance is holding. If that is the case then we should get a death cross with the 50 and 200 EMAs on the 4h chart. If we do get a death cross then it would lead to a $7,500 target, at a minimum. As a result I am viewing this as a selling opportunity. Selling $10,500 - $10,700 with a stop at $10,900 makes a lot of sense to me. If we are able to breakthough $10,800 and spend some time above that price (> 1 day) then I will very much be changing my tune while looking to buy back what I sold around $11,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
7
Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 341)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: Bullish. 50 EMA posturing for golden cross with 200 EMA. Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | 4h ascending triangle Horizontals: R: $5,341 | S: 5,150 Trendline: 1h channel Parabolic SAR: $4,800 and accelerating fast Futures Curve: Contango Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks like an A&E bottom, starting to build significantly over the past few hours TD’ Sequential: Daily G4 | Weekly just closed a perfected G9 Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bullish Relative Strength Index: Testing all time highs Average Directional Index: Weekly still trending down. Daily is very bullish Price Action: 24h: +6.05% | 2w: +38% | 1m: +39.08% Bollinger Bands: Hugging the top band Stochastic Oscillator: Weekly entering overbought territory Summary: It has been a very long time since we have seen a weekly candle like this! Markets are moving and it is time to pay close attention but we do not want to get ahead of ourselves. The weekly just closed a perfected green 9 and there is major resistance overhead. It starts getting heavy around $5,600 and it will become much bigger at $5,800. If prices get to that area while being this overbought then it will be the best selling opportunity of the year. That being said I did enter a small long this afternoon at $5,190 when the price confirmed the ascending triangle. The target from the triangle is $5,669 which is right in line with where horizontal resistance is marked. If we reach that target then I will be taking full profit and looking to go short. Despite entering long I have market this update as neutral because I wasn’t to post it in time. At $5,190 the risk:reward was slightly less than 1:2 and now the price is testing $5,300. That makes it far less attractive. If you missed out on this current pump then make up for it by preparing to sell very soon. If we rally to $5,600 - $5,800 then I do not expect those prices to last for long. The market will be extremely overbought at major resistance and that usually results in a strong / fast reaction. The risk:reward of opening a short in that area will be at least 1:5.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 334)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P > S EMA > M EMA > L EMA (rolling up) = fully bullish Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E Horizontals: R: $4,259 | Will $4,113 become support? Trendline: at $4,500 Parabolic SAR: $3,656 Futures Curve: Spot < March > June BTCUSDSHORTS: New local low. Next support at 17,000. If that breaks down target would be 10,000 Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0008% TD’ Sequential: G8 | TDST = $4,275 Ichimoku Cloud: Just got bullish kumo twist. Very interesting how that happened at ~ the same time as the 50 EMA rolling up. Relative Strength Index: 77 Average Directional Index: Weekly is getting close to turning bullish. 3D just did it. Price Action: 24h: +5% | 2w: +13.5% | 1m: +16.8% Bollinger Bands: 3D closed above top band. Love the Daily getting stuck to the top band. Stochastic Oscillator: Bullish recross > 80. Summary: Now is the time to be very careful. If you went long over the past week then now is the time to adjust stop losses, if you haven’t already. I have moved my stop losses on ETH and BTC well into the profit and that is a very good feeling. If you did not long over the past couple weeks and want to now then ask yourself why? Are you getting a great setup to enter or are you feeling emotional / FOMO? The 200 W EMA is rolling over and is currently being tested for resistance. It has held strong since November of 2018. Even if we do get through that area then there is a bear TL and 200 D EMA waiting directly above. If we can get through those areas then the volume profile indicates a high probability of returning to $6,000. If not in a position then I would not be entering long now. We are overbought, on a green 8 at major resistance. If it were me then I would stay on the sidelines and look for signs of exhaustion and be ready to enter shorts. I do think this bounce still could have some room to go but there is no way I would feel comfortable entering a swing trade now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
ETHBTC bottomed out at MAJOR support level RIGHT NOWHey all! Hope you are doing great! Long term; This is one of the most juicy charts I've seen all year, not a joke. We have found support at a MAJOR monthly level from the small pre-pop back in 2016. Levels are drawn from the main bodies and not the wicks as many people do wrong; it's the bodies you should look for. The timeframe for the body counts a lot, and as this is a MONTHLY candle body close/open for FOUR months, it's incredibly strong! We also have support here from a POC from the last wick down. Great looking long term chart with juicy targets reaching towards 40% and up to 200% at the most. Short term; As you can see on the short-mid term chart below, we did find PERFECT support at the candle body from 2016 and we are bouncing. I am still open for a retest of this horizontal level over time, but on a short term perspective we are currently in a bull-flag and CM stoch is getting ready to fire BUY once blue has successfully crossed over orange and confirmed. Bullish on the short term I have already entered in a long position with leverage on Bitmex, but this is also very valid for buying spot on Binance etc. Around this area is a great entry for spot buying or low leverage buying. The risk/reward is fantastic as you would simply place your SL about 1% below the horizontal level to make sure you are not wicked out by liquidity hunters / market makers. If you support this chart, make sure to give a like and follow for more updates and analysis :) Support makes me want to post more!
Long
by Pineapple1k
1
Support and Resistance Levels with auto Fibonacci Setup TutorialIdentify horizontal support and resistance lines using your choice of 6 methods. Available options Lookback window: Number of bars back to consider in calculations Lookback window right (only applicable for methods 3 and 4): Number of bars to the right to consider in calculations Number of S/R lines to plot: S/R lines to plot (currently the max setting is 4 so 8 lines due to pine limitations. I can post separate scripts for each method that allow more depending on user feedback) Use Custom Time Frame? (M1, M6, M5 only work if viewing lower TF): Set a custom timeframe in minutes, then 1D for daily, 3D for 3 daily etc. Calculation offset: How many of the most recent bars to ignore in the calculations. Update Frequency: How many bars to wait until updating the lines since the last update. Things to tweak. I still need to test the methods, depending on that and feedback I can post separate scripts for each method that allow more depending lines or scrap some. I'll tweak the parameters for using linebreaks to scrap them. Currently required a three close through it (so two in one direction and one in the other). Fibs don't work on the static timeframe as I've reached certain restriction in the coding system. Link to Indicator Below are some examples using the default settings (which I have not optimized as of yet) Method 1 Method 2 Method 3 Method 4 Method 5 Method 6 Referral Links Bitmex 10% fee discount for 6 months www.bitmex.com TradingView (50% off after trial period ends) tradingview.go2cloud.org Tip Jar BTC: 1FgEeDDMF7QKydQPJVCDjp7ypjREp8XG6c LTC: LM9KsXz7GUxCN9g9EjTC8ayviDEmBK14rw
BITFINEX:EOSUSDEducation
by SemiQuant
25
What Support Looks Like When It BreaksLooking at the m15 chart only can lead you to have the correct idea but in the wrong place. By looking at high time frame charts you get a better picture of when a trend is in place, when a trend is no longer working or when there is no trend and we're in a range. On the attached charts a daily time frame (top left) has a defined up trend and at 1.6700 the trend line and price meet for the 3rd time of Sept 27th. Here traders wanting to keep adding to long trade would initiate a long trade. However by the close of the daily candle that idea is no longer valid, as the trend line did not hold as support. Moving down through the smaller time frames we see that the days leading up to the 27th September have been consolidated into small daily moves. There is a clear line of support under these days that is clearly broken on the H1 chart etc. This equates to the time when the Daily candle approaches the rising trend line. What we see happen next is that the broken daily horizontal support is now acting as horizontal resistance and price is trapped between this new horizontal resistance and the rising daily up trend. When the horizontal resistance holds and the daily rising trend line are broke on the H1 candles traders waited for a quick retest and then went short. Accelerating the move.
Education
by OctaFX_Official
2
BTC possible scenarios.Yesterday I was right about bear trap but unfortunately I got rekt badly at last night. It shows that I am much better analytic than trader. I set my trigger to open long @6680 on bimtex and because of the maintenace It opened around 7000 (6980 exactly). When I woke up in the morning I was very surprised of what happened. I have rather small leverage so I won;t be liquidated but the lesson is painful. DONT USE TRIGGERS during breakouts. I just wait now and watch what the price will do. Now I have some things to watch. The first is that we have possible new upward pullback. If we base on recent pullback they were around 15% from previous top. It means that 7200 is target for this scenario. My previous scenario about fractals should invalid because we broke 26EMA BUT we haven't closed above it yet. If BTC can close above it It will be bullish signal and 7200 target is very likely. If not there is high probabilty that we play such bear flag From EMA perspective it looks very good for bulls. There are bullish crosses on 4h TF and price went confidently up EMAs. But 100 4hEMA is strong resistance and rejection is bearish. The same as 26 Daily EMA rejetction. But this EMAs have almost the same values. Usually when we break 55 4EMA, 100EMA and support BTC bulls try to make a few attacks and push the price higher and makes few higher lows before drop. One of example: I would say there is no good setup right now for anybody but unfortunately I am in and I need to watch the price closely I set my stop loss @6450 This wick and even attack on 7200 doesn't distract my previous idea and the target of 5200-5750 is still active. Why did I go long on this trigger? ugh...
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Astroc
6
Like audusdIt is a beautiful range sandwiched between Pivot Points. It will be a simple point of trying to short. << tactics >> 1) When MPP (P) 0.68568 functions as a resistance line, consider a short entry. The first limit is WePP (P) 0.67879 The second limit is WePP (S1) 0.67351 2) If you penetrate MPP (P) upwards, wait for a long entry opportunity. Please note that WePP will be updated on Monday. I would be grateful if you like it idea,give me follow or agrees! ------------------------- -------------------------- Brown thick line: Yearly Pivot Points (YPP in the text) Light blue thick line: Monthly Pivot Points (MPP in the text) Green thin line: Weekly Pivot Points (WePP in the text) Indigo thick line: Horizontal line or Trend line seen by weekly or monthly Indigo thin line: Horizontal line or Trend line seen by 4hourly or daily Indigo dotted line: outstanding round number. Red thick line: Untrustworthy line for me Red curve: EMA 20 close Indigo curve: EMA 200 close Green curve: EMA 800 close Black curve: EMA 1600 close x mark: Line which may not function ------------------------- --------------------------
Short
by fondiea