Hormuz — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Can Geopolitics Redefine Market Risk?The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which analysts widely dub the "fear gauge," currently commands significant attention in global financial markets. Its recent surge reflects profound uncertainty, particularly from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the VIX quantifies market expectations for future volatility, its current elevation signals more than mere sentiment. It represents a sophisticated repricing of systemic risk, capturing the implied probability of significant market dislocations. Investors find it an indispensable tool for navigating turbulent periods. The dramatic escalation of the Iran-Israel proxy conflict into a confrontation, involving the United States, directly fuels this heightened volatility. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025, prompted swift Iranian retaliation. Subsequently, on June 22, the U.S. launched "Operation Midnight Hammer," conducting precision strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites. Iran's Foreign Minister immediately declared diplomacy over, holding the U.S. responsible for "dangerous consequences" and vowing further "punishment operations," including a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This direct U.S. military intervention, particularly targeting nuclear facilities with specialized munitions, fundamentally alters the conflict's risk profile. It moves beyond proxy warfare into a confrontation with potentially existential implications for Iran. The explicit threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint for oil supplies, creates immense uncertainty for energy markets and the broader global economy. While historical VIX spikes from geopolitical events often prove transient, the current situation's unique characteristics introduce a higher degree of systemic risk and unpredictability. The Cboe VVIX Index, measuring the VIX's expected volatility, has also risen to the higher end of its range, signaling deep market uncertainty about the future trajectory of risk itself. The current environment necessitates a shift from static portfolio management to a dynamic, adaptive approach. Investors must re-evaluate portfolio construction, considering long exposure to volatility through VIX instruments as a hedging mechanism, and increasing allocations to traditional safe havens like U.S. Treasuries and gold. The elevated VVIX implies that even the predictability of market volatility is compromised, demanding a multi-layered risk management strategy. This specific confluence of events might signify a departure from historical patterns of short-lived geopolitical market impacts, suggesting geopolitical risk could become a more ingrained and persistent factor in asset pricing. Vigilance and agile strategies are paramount for navigating this unpredictable landscape.

Will Middle East Tensions Ignite a Global Oil Crisis?The global oil market faces significant turbulence amidst reports of potential Israeli military action against Iran's nuclear facilities. This looming threat has triggered a notable surge in oil prices, reflecting deep market anxieties. The primary concern stems from the potential for severe disruption to Iran's oil output, a critical component of global supply. More critically, an escalation risks Iranian retaliation, including a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint through which a substantial portion of the world's oil transits. Such an event would precipitate an unprecedented supply shock, echoing historical price spikes seen during past Middle Eastern crises. Iran currently produces around 3.2 million barrels per day and holds strategic importance beyond its direct volume. Its oil exports, primarily to China, serve as an economic lifeline, making any disruption profoundly impactful. A full-scale conflict would unleash a cascade of economic consequences: extreme oil price surges would fuel global inflation, potentially pushing economies into recession. While some spare capacity exists, a prolonged disruption or a Hormuz blockade would render it insufficient. Oil-importing nations, particularly vulnerable developing economies, would face severe economic strain, while major oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia, the US, and Russia, would see substantial financial gains. Beyond economics, a conflict would fundamentally destabilize the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, unraveling diplomatic efforts and exacerbating regional tensions. Geostrategically, the focus would intensify on safeguarding critical maritime routes, highlighting the inherent vulnerabilities of global energy supply chains. Macroeconomically, central banks would confront the difficult task of managing inflation without stifling growth, leading to a surge in safe-haven assets. The current climate underscores the profound fragility of global energy markets, where geopolitical developments in a volatile region can have immediate and far-reaching global repercussions.

What is behind the gold and oil growth & Powell again signals Perhaps the main event that jogged financial markets and had effected on the momentum of oil prices valuations, as well as gold prices, was an incident in the Strait of Hormuz. This time the United Kingdom and Iran were involved. Three Iranian warships tried to block the passage of the British company BP tanker. A British warship offset the attempt, but the tension is increasing in the region. So, the gold and other safe-haven assets’ price increase was sharp yesterday. This week, the fundamental background is on the bull's side with respect to oil. In addition to the above-mentioned incident, the reduction in US reserves, tropical storm Barry likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico, and threats from Trump regarding a toughening of sanctions against Iran supported oil buyers. The Bank of England yesterday published its financial stability report. The most interesting that was published was the likelihood of the Great Britain exit “scenario” without a deal has grown, which in turn can provoke negative consequences for the British economy. However, the pound reacted calmly to this report. So our position is unchanged - we are looking for points for its purchases. Day two of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress, he noted that the current rates are in the neutral area, however, there is a chance that the Fed might cut the rates. At the same time, the markets are more confident with a rate cut in July. They are more likely guessing about the question “For how much it will be lowered” by 0.5% or by 0.5% at once. So far ¾ support the first variant. Recall, this is quite a bearish signal for the dollar. Analysts are revising their dollar forecasts downward. Recall, we remind you about the feasibility of selling the dollar on the foreign exchange market. Friday promises to be a “rest stop”. And this means that participants in financial markets are likely to continue to follow the current trends. Our trading recommendations for today are as follows. We continue to look for opportunities for selling the dollar (USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD). Sell the Russian ruble. Sell the gold near the highs and buy from the lows.

WTI CRUDE OIL Long Currently observing the geopolitical tensions about the gulf of Hormuz and the allegations about Iran's Military. The current news and the marketclose on friday and the market opening on monday will most likely cause a gap in the OIL price. The price of OIL will almost 90% surge the coming week. Price is currently $52. This will propably go up to $57 or higher the coming weeks. TVC:USOIL

Oil - Hormuz - Demand up to 80?Based on potential issues with Iran involving the Hormuz Strait I just published and quickly cancelled a chart looking for a run up to 76.5-77.5 and then a pullback to 74. But then thought - if this issue continues to unfold then prices may just continue to grind up over the next month without much in the way of prices pulling back. I am highly advising taking partial or even full profits at the 76.5-77.5 area in the even that Hormuz becomes a non-isse early in the week, but if prices hover at the 77 level, it may be a sign of a continued bull run and i believe a move toward 80-81 is very possible. Enter Long: 73.82-74.12 TP1: 76.49 TP2: 77.67 TP3: 78.86 TP4: 80.00 I am advising re-adding/building long positions on a pullback from TP2 and TP3 (see chart for re-add levels). Questions and comments are welcome, good trading all!

The Hormuz Straight Play Potential 470 ticks: I am looking for a potential Long and Short play in Oil short term. I was recently bearish minded at 74.12 but following the price action this past week I believe we may have another run up coming potentially due to geopolitics involving the Hormuz straight. Trade on the chart is self explanatory based on 2014 Supply/Demand levels. Note: If geopolitics do not heat up short term over the Hormuz Straight, then I believe prices will still test 75.3-75.6 this week; that would be a good level to take partial profits. Long Entry: 73.82-74.12 (Entry is active) Target: 76.49 Short Entry: 76.49 Target: 74.12 @kate25 We can rename the chair pattern the "Hormuz Straight Pattern" if this plays out. :) s3.amazonaws.com If this does happen then I believe prices may enter a long term approximately 5 dollar sideways extended range, hitting strong supply levels but waiting 2 or 3 months for a larger pullback as heavy puts start to decay similar to the Nov 2016-March 2017 Range. s3.amazonaws.com Good trading all!