HOT/USDT Breakout Confirmation or Bull Trap? Critical Retest!🧠 In-Depth Technical Breakdown (Daily Timeframe):
HOT/USDT (Holo vs Tether) is currently at a crucial inflection point, following a confirmed breakout from a long-standing downtrend. The price is now retesting a major demand zone, and how it reacts here will determine its next big move.
Let’s dive deeper into the technical structure, chart patterns, and the possible bullish and bearish scenarios:
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🔻 1. Trend Structure & Major Breakout
Since peaking in late December 2024, HOT/USDT was trapped in a descending trendline (yellow diagonal line).
In mid-July 2025, price successfully broke above this downtrend, signaling a potential trend reversal.
This breakout suggests a shift in market sentiment from bearish to neutral-to-bullish.
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🟨 2. Retesting the Key Demand Zone (Support Flip)
Price is currently testing a critical demand/support zone between 0.00090 – 0.00110 USDT (highlighted in the yellow box).
This area served as a major consolidation base in the past and is now being tested as support after the breakout.
A successful retest will validate the breakout and could spark a continuation to the upside.
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📐 3. Chart Pattern: Falling Wedge Breakout
Price action clearly formed a Falling Wedge pattern, typically a bullish reversal setup.
The breakout from the wedge confirms bullish momentum and the potential start of a new trend.
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🔮 4. Price Scenarios Moving Forward
✅ Bullish Scenario:
If the price holds above the 0.00090–0.00100 zone:
1. Potential upside targets:
TP1: 0.00134 (minor resistance)
TP2: 0.00147 (key structural level)
TP3: 0.00159 (breakout continuation zone)
TP4: 0.00229 – 0.00246 (historical range highs)
TP5: 0.00380 – 0.00407 (major highs from previous cycle)
2. This structure could mark the beginning of a higher low + higher high uptrend, if confirmed.
❌ Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below 0.00090 with strong volume:
1. Likely a return to previous support at:
0.00072 USDT (historical low and major support level).
2. This would invalidate the breakout and possibly confirm a bull trap, resuming the downtrend.
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🧩 Other Key Technical Notes (Not Shown in Chart but Useful):
Volume: Look for high volume on the breakout and retest to confirm validity.
RSI/Divergence: Check for hidden or bullish divergence on the last swing low.
EMA 50/200: If price crosses or holds above these EMAs, it adds further confirmation of trend reversal.
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📊 Summary & Trading Strategy:
HOT/USDT is in a critical phase of retesting a major breakout, offering traders a great opportunity to either buy the dip or wait for confirmation.
Suggested Strategy:
Conservative Entry: Wait for a bullish candle close above 0.00100 with strong rejection from the support zone.
Aggressive Entry: Buy near 0.00090–0.00100 with a tight stop loss below 0.00087.
Use resistance levels for scaling out profits or setting targets.
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