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How a Housing Market Crash Equals New Stock Market HighsTraders, I believe this chart is so important it warrants revisiting the data. Indeed, the fed has to be cognizant of this same data and is most certainly is watching it closely. Therefore, we must do the same. In this video, I am going to explain why the housing market data, even though it's week, supports my thesis of a blow-off top in the stock markets this summer. Stew ⛓️ 🔗 Useful Links 🔗 ⛓️ My Housing Market Chart: www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USHMI
by stewdamus
1
Do you Hear Lumber Screaming?Lumber is at a critical inflection point. Its likely telling us that Central bank policy is about to experience more inflation if they start to ease to soon. If Lumber continues to rally, its screaming more housing inflation could be around the corner. Since we have a major Technical Topping formation in play, Lumber is still vulnerable to more downside which could also mean the housing market has much softer prices ahead. If lumber is to show nay chance of negating this bearish pattern it needs to close above the yellow trendline for 2 consecutive weeks.
L
by Trading-Capital
Copper Turning Red HotWhen China sneezes, commodities catch cold. Developments in China over the last quarter around zero COVID have paved the path to re-opening, which has a substantial impact on lives, livelihoods, and commodity prices. China re-opening plus a raft of measures to spur the Chinese real estate sector sets the backdrop for copper prices to be bullish. This case study illustrates that a long position in CME Copper Futures with an entry at 3.95 and a target of 4.326 supported by a stop loss at 3.614 would yield a reward to risk ratio of 1.2. On 14th November, we published – Copper Melting? , in which we were short term bearish while staying long term bullish on Copper. Our call then turned out correct with prices tanking in November but given the large-scale policy shifts in China now, we believe prices are well supported and set to rise. RECOVERY FROM COVID LOCKDOWNS Bounce-back from Covid lockdowns is visibly observed in various China-centric asset classes and currency. The chart below shows that since last September, Iron Ore has spiked 19% & Copper is up 12% buoyed by real estate recovery. COVID-19 STILL LINGERS THREE YEARS ON It is 2023, but COVID-19 still lingers. Covid lockdown hurts. Weak growth and stunted consumer confidence is evident from the chart below. Consumer confidence is at its lowest in 10 years. Based on data compiled by Bloomberg, rebound in subway traffic in key cities suggests that infections might have peaked. While the situation is still challenging for many, conditions in China might have passed peak Covid, suggesting shift in sentiments for the better. MEASURES TO HELP CHINESE REAL ESTATE SECTOR In addressing sagging consumer confidence and struggling real estate market, Beijing has embarked on pro-growth policy stance with accelerated reopening plans, plus a range of support measures for the real estate sector. The measures to boost property market include (1) easing of lending restrictions, (2) lowering of mortgage rates, (3) capping real estate brokerage commissions, (4) dialing back on “three red-lines” lending policy for banks, (5) reducing down payment ratios for first time buyers, (6) removing minimum lending rates for first time purchases, (7) resuming approvals for private equity funds to raise money to invest in residential real estate, and, (8) strengthening of “too-big-to-fail” property developers. Phased rollout of these measures is starting to have a positive impact. Since lows touched in November, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) China Real Estate Developers Index is up 62%. IRON ORE AND COPPER ARE AMONG THE FIRST TO BENEFIT FROM SUPPORT MEASURES A booming real estate sector directly benefits Iron Ore and Copper. Sea-borne Iron Ore - majority of which is imported into China has been buoyant and is anticipated to rebound to $130/ton this quarter according to Citi. Over the past month, iron ore prices have also moved up with reopening hopes boosting sentiment. Bloomberg reported late last week that China plans to tighten the supervision on iron ore pricing to curtail speculations, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement on its WeChat page. The Bullish sentiment in the real estate sector is showing up in buoyant copper prices. Unfettered by regulatory actions on price rise, copper has stayed more resilient than iron ore highlighting its relative strength. SPECIFIC EQUITY MARKET SECTOR INDICES INDICATING MARKET BOUYANCY Shares of mainland Chinese property developers shot up last week on talks that the authorities plan to extend supportive measures for “good-quality developers”. The chart above shows a bullish cup and handle formation on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Real Estate Index that points to an imminent recovery in the sector. SSE Real Estate Index spiked 21% since November 1st while the SSE Transportation Index (chart below) has climbed just 3.6% during the same period. SIGNS OF BULLISHNESS IN COPPER TECHNICAL SIGNALS Copper’s short-term moving average is approaching the long-term moving average. A cross could point to the start of a rally. Copper’s Bollinger bands have started to narrow pointing to a narrowing range which suggests that a breakout from the range. Copper prices cooled off in November before recovering, this price action also displays a bullish cup and handle formation as prices have remained range-bound post-recovery. Prices hovering at these levels despite softer volumes suggests that prices have found support. INSIGHTS IMPLIED FROM OPEN INTEREST AND OPTIONS MARKETS POINTS TO EARLY SIGNS OF BULLISHNESS Based on the Commitment of Traders Report, over the past 12 weeks, funds, institutional investors, and managed money have reduced their net short positions in copper futures by a striking 71%. Meanwhile, during the same period, small speculators while individually small but collectively non-trivial have shifted from net short positions of -1,004 lots to net long of +4,838 lots. The put-call ratio on CME Copper Options is 0.57, a sign that participants are bullish on the prospects of copper price. TRADE SET-UP Each long position in micro copper futures (February 2023) provides exposure to 2,500 pounds of copper. Entry: 3.950 Target: 4.326 Stop Loss: 3.614 Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.20 Profit at Target: $940 Loss at Stop Loss: $840 MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by mintdotfinance
3
im forced to assume dumpsterfire in real estate still oncomparisons are telling us simply when more people are able to borrow money real estate does better. interest rate data from whale crew tells us as long as we climb this indication the risk gets worse for borrowers. as long as those go in the specified direction im looking at higher prices in this fund. all is normal as in everyone is doing fine, and still doesnt want to buy a home; snafu reit. housing market could recover i just want these metrics to go the opposite way before i call it a recovery.
AMEX:DRV
by cerealpatterns
HOUSING MARKET BOTTOM? I think so, such a beautiful chart. I noticed Reits having their largest trades EVER in the darkpools yesterday. This is a beautiful chart of Cubesmart and look at it. Housing broke resistance from 2007 in April and has now comeback to test it in Sept-Dec all while institutations are putting out paid ads to spread the doom and gloom. Everyone and their mother is repeating the housing shock. Well if this support holds which I think it will we're in for another housing boom until we get another blowoff top. Everything here just lines up so well for a market bottom in general, I think the markets as a whole should rise for at least a couple years.
NYSE:CUBELong
by ghengiskahnspermshot
Is this the end... again?As housing is a necessity for all of humanity... it's a good indication on where the markets heading. Since 2008, the housing futures market found support near !146 in early 2009, after an expansion and retrace the market found it's final bottom in early 2013 around !146 again. This was the last support before the world starts to flourish... Families were being created at new rates, humanity was thriving & technological advancement was hitting all time highs. Everything seemed okay. --- Fast forward to 2019-2020 and the largest pharmaceutical fraud in humanity's existence appeared. Everyone was in a state of shock and disconcert that a bat virus would ruin humanity. When in reality... well that's for another time. Not only did it appear when the world was moving steady, but it was "discovered" around the same price range that the 2008 crash took place - !220. --- Not only does this add to the conspiracy, but it can give a little insight as to what the f* is going on... was this pandemic to pump the market to confirm new highs? Might we call this a "pumpdemic". The rich will always, get richer. --- Will we see brutal retaliation that we saw from over-leveraged institutions again? A question, asked by many. To be clear, yes. The markets are going to levels that no one will expect. This will be a rough time for the world, and supposing the truth comes out about the "pumpdemic", lord have mercy. --- During the 2008 housing futures crash, we saw a near ¬ -30% decrease over roughly ¬ 12 months. As of writing this (Nov, 2022), we have seen a ¬ -15% decrease over roughly ¬ 3 months. In spite of the fact; the world's population and development has greatly increased since 2009, technically we should see greater %'s, negative and positive due to our advancement. But, due to the fact the world is hanging on a thread of leveraged MANIA... during a "pandemic". There's a little more concern for the -15% over 3 months.... --- Anyways, We're not telling you to sell your real-estate... but instead keep an eye on what happens over the next 6-12 months- and have a decisive plan when making financial decisions. Here's our analysis We'll be back soon!
CME:CUS1!Short
by AlgoLab
7
Comparing Vanguard to BTC In both of these charts, you can see the correlation between 2 sectors that had if not IDENTICAL run ups due to their nature of being overbought and unregulated. (housing crisis of 08 vs Crypto crisis of 2022) As of now we are still on our path downwards. The housing crisis took until Nov 2007 to late 2009 to start on the path of recovery. We know cryptocurrency is here to stay and the technological advances in our payments systems and the way we book keep and communicate will eventually if not be on blockchains. Being that it took us 2 years to recover from the housing crash by implementing regs such as Dodd Frank and Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, VA, ext. we have a much more investor friendly housing market. Crypto will soon be on that path with regulations. 2023 should be a ideal year to add to short positions or even build upon current ones. However 2024 it would be unsafe to carry that mentality. Regardless of who is president, this market sentiment will turn around and 2024 we can expect a reversal.
AMEX:VTIShort
by kiashedgefund
Is it the right time buy a house? Since Fed's tapering began in the end of 2021, mortgage figures have been in a mark up phase. There is still no indication of a correction. As a result of it, housing prices may not find support for new high levels. Monthly price changes in the negative territory are supporting this idea in the last months. However, the year over year housing price changes are still providing more room for increase. So, the price conditions may stay elevated in 2023 but the momentum is clearly losing steam. Briefly if you buy a house now, you will possibly feel right for some time but there can be a phase of price correction in 2023 and 2024. Moreover, with softening inflation rates in the coming period, the housing market prices in real terms may be better than today.
FRED:MORTGAGE30US
by Trader_Geist
1
DRV - Short Real Estate NowMortgage rates are penciling-in to be around 10% on a first mortgage note by Jan/Feb - so everyone with a couple of brain cells to rub together knows what that will do to real estate prices. Some good things will come out of this - like the Gen Z's in the market will get a chance to become homeowners, but in trading terms, this is a very good opportunity. DRV is an easy ETF symbol to broadly short the real estate market with - I recommend sitting on the thing for several months. Shorting bonds directly works, but will vary by your broker for availability. AMEX:DRV
AMEX:DRVShort
by NordicVetMBA